SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 28 | NFL PICKS

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SUNDAY GUESTS

10:30-10:45 CHUCK TODD – If you don’t know who Chuck Todd is, you need to buy a TV and start caring about who and how who runs your country. Besides being the HOST of MEET THE PRESS, Chuck is a HUGE sports fan.  I may ask him when he comes on how many fantasy teams he has but this guy is the real deal.  Not only does he do a great job of balancing himself between political parties and issues, he is fun just to talk to.  Chuck will tell us who his favorite NFL team is and who he likes in college football.  I might even give him a chance to weigh in on who he thinks is going to win the World Series.  As far as NCAA football goes, he’s a big time “The U” fan.

Listen to the segment below.

11:05 – 11:30 – Hopefully we’re going to have MIKE WALLACE of “Nats Talk” on to finish up on what the playoffs are going to look like after the LAST DAY OF THE MLB SEASON THE SAME DAY! It doesn’t get any better than this.  There is a chance I’m going to have Bruce Bochy on the show to wish him and his San Francisco Giants good luck on Tuesday night when they probably travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Pirates.  If they win, they’ll be in the League Divisional Series against the Washington Nationals.  Imagine that!!

11:30 – 11:45 – Arizona Cardinals and SB Nationa writer and blogger and beat guy JESS ROOT will join us and talk about HIS and MY favorite longshot to make the Super Bowl this season, the Arizona Cardinals.  The Cardinals are 3-0 already this season and are in a bye week.  THIS WILL BE GOOD!!

11:45-11:59 – TONY MAZUR – CLEVELAND’S FINEST will be with us at the end of the show to talk about what he sees so far with the NFL and his Cleveland Browns!

This had us laughing during the long break, but we didn’t get to talk about it. It wasn’t a good week to be the owner of the Redskins.

GAMES

MIAMI -3.5 OVER OAKLAND (42) – Nobody cares about this game in London, England which is the same time as the Ryder Cup is going on.  Miami has some interesting things going on there with their starting QB thinking he’s starting and the Head Coach Joe Philbin not letting the media know that.  Whatever is happening, it isn’t conducive to winning NFL football.  However, the Raiders are SO BAD that I don’t think it will matter.  PASS PASS PASS.

GREEN BAY -2 AT CHICAGO (50.5) – The Packers are struggling with many things as we speak, the least of which is their Pro Bowl QB Aaron Rodgers is having a tough time connecting with his receiving corps.  Their running game isn’t where it should be with Eddie Lacy and James Starks either. Hopefully, the Pack will get their offense together against a banged up, not so great Bears defense in Soldier Field this week.  Rodger has won 8 of his last 9 games against the Bears.  Cutler has looked fine even though he’s been throwing to two banged up WRs but their TE is doing a great job.  RB Matt Forte is a dual threat running and catching the football.  The thing I like most about this game is the TOTAL of 50.5 points.  I can see this going OVER easily if the wind isn’t a problem.   Neither defense is playing well and I would say that BOTH TEAMS DEFENSE is their weak hand.  This is too close to call IMO  I would say that in Pete Rozelle’s heaven, both teams should end up 2-2 following this game which would lead me to take the Packers here.  HOWEVER, it would be me picking the weaker defense on the road and that makes no sense.  I AM GOING TO TAKE THE OVER 50.5 FOR 5 STARS SINCE BOTH TEAMS WILL HAVE TO SCORE TO STAY CLOSE DURING THE GAME.  CHECK THE WEATHER FOR WIN VELOCITIES AT GAME TIME. FINAL SCORE CHICAGO 38 GREEN BAY 35.

HOUSTON -3 OVER BUFFALO (42.5) – Both of these teams started off 2-0 and lost their first games last week.  Houston waking up and getting their asses kicked by a New York Giants team that wasn’t nearly as bad as they looked their first two games.  Buffalo got beat up by a pretty damn good San Diego team that will be in the playoffs it looks like.  This game is a toss-up! Both teams QBs are about the same IMO and the Bills defense is probably a little bit better overall.  Both teams are going to have to throw the ball to be effective. The Bills’ C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson are both excellent runners and are tough out of the backfield as receivers.  If Arian Foster is 100%, the Texans will also be tough.  I’m going to PASS ON THIS GAME! FINAL SCORE BUFFALO 23 HOUSTON 20.

INDIANAPOLIS -7.5 OVER TENNESSEE (46) – Andrew Luck is not only one of the best young QBs ever in the NFL and the leader of this Colts team, he is MY QB on my fantasy team and is performing at a phenomenal rate as the #1 QB in Fantasy Football as we speak.  Ahmad Bradshaw is proving to be the most valuable RB out of his backfield as he runs and receives passes whenever he needs to.  The book is still out on Trent Richardson, a guy that owner Jim Irsay (before his arrest last year) traded for with Cleveland.  Reggie Wayne has yet to break loose with a great game this season, recovering from a knee injury.  T.Y. Hilton is injured but should be back this week.  Hakeem Nicks, who was signed as a free agent during the offseason, has looked average at best.  The TE tandem of Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener (also on my fantasy team) has caught 16 passes for almost 200 yards.  The Titans beat the K.C. Chiefs opening day on the road but have looked anything but solid since that first game.  Mistakes have killed the Titans, turning the ball over several times the past two games.  Starting Titans QB Jake Locker is QUESTIONABLE WITH A WRIST INJURY.  HE WAS LIMITED IN PRACTICE ON FRIDAY, WHICH ISN’T A GOOD SIGN.   Backup QB Charlie Whitehurst will start in Locker’s place if he is unable to play.  The TITANS HAVE ALSO LOST 10 OF THEIR LAST 11 GAMES IN INDY!! With the Colts, a preseason favorite to possibly end up in the AFC Championship Game, sitting with a 1-2 record, look for the COLTS TO COME OUT SMOKING ON OFFENSE AND RUNNING UP A TOUGH SCORE FOR THE TITANS TO KEEP UP WITH.  I’M TAKING THE COLTS MINUST THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS HERE.  THEY NEED THE WIN MUCH WORSE THAN THE TITANS DO!! FINAL SCORE INDY 28 TENNESSEE 17.

BALTIMORE -3 OVER CAROLINA (42) – If anyone out there was thinking the Panthers were going to do a replay of last season when they went to the playoffs, a home 18 point loss to the Steelers on Monday night brought everyone back down  to Earth.  Cam Newton will probably look to put pressure on S Matt Elam in the middle of the field with WR Kelvin Benjamin and TE Greg Olsen.  Cam has a 99.4 rating so far this season and backup Anderson’s is 119.8.  They can move the ball in the air, but the offensive line for Carolina MUST keep Cam on his feet.  He is NOT 100% yet.  RB Jonathan Stewart has been AVERAGE so far this season.  Ravens TE Dennis Pitta is out for the season with a hip injury.  THAT is going to leave a HUGE void in the Ravens offense.  New Ravens WR Steve Smith wants revenge and is looking to prove something this weekend.  However, if WR Torrey Smith can’t do better than 6 catches in 3 games for 85 yards (his current stats) then the Ravens are going to have a tough time doing anything offensively in this game.  If the Ravens can run the football, it should loosen up their passing game.  Right now the Panthers are giving up 5-6 yards per carry to their opponents, a part of Carolina’s game that was supposed to be better than that.  I’M GOINT TO PASS ON THIS GAME SINCE IT IS SUCH A TOSS UP IN MY OPINION! FINAL SCORE BALTIMORE 23 CAROLINA 20.

DETROIT -1.5 OVER JETS (44.5) – THIS game is going to be a fun game to watch! Two teams who are borderline picks for the playoffs IMO BOTH need a win here.  The Jets can’t afford to lose here and go to 1-3 on the season with SAN DIEGO, DENVER, AND NEW ENGLAND coming up in the next 3 weeks.  That could leave the Jets at 1-6 in the middle of October and NOBODY IN THE JETS ORGANIZATION WANTS THAT TO HAPPEN!! The second half of the Jets schedule is much easier than the first half but THEY NEED TO WIN NOW!!  Jets QB Geno Smith has play OK but made a few mistakes along the way.  The same can be said for Lions QB Matt Stafford, who usually is much sharper than he has been so far.  Reggie Bush, Joique Bell and the Lions running game has yet to get going.  Megatron (Calvin Johnson) has been OK but is nursing a sore ankle.  Golden Tate has been a solid #2 receiver but they really HAVE no TEs that can threaten the defense.  The Jets are running the ball efficiently but Chris Johnson’s longest run so far this season is 11 yards.  Except for a 71 yard run by Ivory, the Jets running game has just been OK.  Sacks and turnovers have plagued the Jets so far.  On the defensive side of the ball, the JETS SECONDARY IS HORRIBLE!  The Jets have given up 7 TDs so far and have yet to get an interception this season.  I THINK THE LIONS WILL GO AFTER THE SECONDARY WITH THEIR RECEIVING CORPS AND THAT WILL OPEN UP THE LIONS RUNNING GAME.  The Jets will struggle to score points in this game.  IF THE LIONS ARE GOING TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS AND POSSIBLY WIN THE NFC NORTH, THEY NEED TO WIN GAMES LIKES THIS!! I’M TAKING THE LIONS HERE TO COVER THE TINY LINE AND WIN THE GAME OUTRIGHT.  FINAL SCORE DETROIT 30 JETS 17.

PITTSBURGH -7.5 OVER TAMPA BAY (43.5) – The Steelers are having a lot of success running the football.  For the first time in 28 years, the Steelers had TWO RBs who rushed for more than 100 yards in the same game.  The Buccaneers defensive backs are AWFUL.  They have allowed opposing QBs to complete 70 out of 91 throws for 815 yards and a 117.2 QB rating.  This week  last year’s starting QB for the final 8 games Mike Glennon starts the game.  He CAN’T BE WORSE THAN MCCOWN HAS BEEN.  However, Glennon doesn’t play defense and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Steelers open up the playbook and get some scores early and often against this pitiful Bucs team.  I LOOK FOR BEN ROETHELISBERGER TO COME OUT RUNNING AND THROWING THE BALL INTO THE END ZONE.  THE STEELERS RESIGNED FORMER ALL PRO LB JAMES HARRISON THIS PAST WEEK when there were some injuries to their LB corps.  TAKE THE STEELERS -7.5 FOR 5 STARS.  THE STEELERS CAN’T AFFORD NOT TO WIN THIS GAME.  FINAL SCORE PITTSBURGH 38-TAMPA BAY 17.

SAN DIEGO -13 OVER JACKSONVILLE (41) – The Chargers have played great their first three games of the season, losing only a close game to the 3-0 Arizona Cardinals opening day and BEATING the Seahawks and Bills.  QB Phillip Rivers has a 108.3 QB rating and Antonio Gates looks 10 years younger! The Chargers have lost Ryan Matthews and Danny Woodhead for the season already.  Donald Brown steps into the starting role at RB and even though he hasn’t set the world on fire with 81 yards in 40 carries, he should be good enough to offset the great passing game of Rivers.  The Jaguars defense has played three good offenses so far but look right now like the WORST team in the league. The Jags allow the opposing QBs they play a 110.3 rating.  Last week Blake Bortles was brought in for Chad Henne and he should stay there for a while.  If the Chargers don’t look ahead to the Jets next week, they should be able to handle the Jaguars easily and even cover the spread.  Take the CHARGERS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS.  FINAL SCORE SAN DIEGO 34 JAGUARS 20.

PHILADELPHIA +5 AT SAN FRANCISCO (50.5) – The Eagles are coming off a high scoring hard hitting game against what was then a pretty healthy Redskins team last week.  Nick Foles had a sore shoulder most of the week but should get the start Sunday.  The Eagles outscore their opponents in the second half 74-24.  They are undefeated.  Shady McCoy got hit hard in the head last week and even though he came back into the game, didn’t seem to be the same guy that left the game when he returned.  RB Darren Sproles provides the Eagles with a weapon most teams do not have.  TE Zack Ertz has caught 9 passes for almost a 20 yard average.  Jeremy Macklin looks like their number 1 receiver this season.  Riley Cooper hasn’t gotten it going yet but I look for him to have a big day tomorrow against the 49ers.  Nick Foles and Colin Kaepernick are two of the best young QBs in the league.  I’ll be surprised if this isn’t a very close game tomorrow.  Usually, you’d look for a lot of scoring but the Niners will have to shut down the Eagles offense if they are going to win.  I doubt they’ll  outscore them in a shootout (although the Redskins almost did) but it should be a great game.   If the Niners can lose at home to the Bears, there’s no reason that they couldn’t lose to the Eagles.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME STRAIGHT UP BUT I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER 50.5 POINTS IF THE WIND IS BELOW 15 MPH.  BOTH QBS WILL MOVE THE BALL THROUGH THE AIR BETTER THAN ON THE GROUND. FINAL SCORE SAN FRANCISCO 34 PHILLY 28.

ATLANTA -3 AT MINNESOTA (47) – The Vikings can’t run the football and they have a rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater starting this week because of Matt Cassel’s injury.  Adrian Peterson is out indefinitely because, well……you should know by now.  Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense have weapons, many weapons.  They have Julio Jones who already has 23 catches for 365 yards and 3 TDs this season.  The also have Roddy White and Harry Douglas, both excellent receivers.  They are averaging 4.6 yards per carry with Steven Jackson and Jacquizz Rodgers.  The only good team the Falcons have played, HOWEVER, the Cincinnati Bengals BEAT them two weeks ago 24-10 and shut down their offense.  The Vikings aren’t the Bengals but their head coach is one of the best defensive minds in the game.  Normally, I’d give the home dog a shot here but the VIKINGS ARE SO BANGED UP that I don’t see any way they can play with the Falcons here.  The Vikings have lost back to back to Tom Brady by 23 points and 11 points to Drew Brees.  Matt Ryan has more weapons than either of those two teams.  TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE 3 POINTS FOR 4 STARS HERE.  FINAL SCORE ATLANTA 27 MINNESOTA 20.

NEW ORLEANS -3 AT DALLAS (53.5) – This prime time Sunday Night Game should be a lot of fun to watch.  Both teams know how to score.  They just aren’t doing as much of it as they should be.  The Cowboys are 2-1 but their wins are against Tennessee and St. Louis, two teams who are struggling.  They lost to a 49ers team that has been struggling also.  Everybody was talking early in the season about how bad their defense was.  Against the Rams last week, they started to look that way.  The Saints are supposed to have a much improved defense under DC Rob Ryan and the acquisition of some defensive players.  When Dallas is at home since the construction of “The Spaceship”, they haven’t had ANY home field advantage.  As a matter of fact, usually they play much better on the road.  The Saints and Drew Brees, however, are 1-8 against the spread their last nine games on the road.  THEY ARE A BETTER HOME TEAM!  The Cowboys have weapons like NFL rushing leader DeMarco Murray who has 385 yards rushing in 3 games with 3 TDs.  Dez Bryant has 247 yards receiving with 2 TDs already.  Tony Romo hasn’t got it going yet, but the longer he plays with his recovering back, the better he will be.  I’M GONG TO TAKE THE OVER 53.5 POINTS FOR 5 STARS BECAUSE I HONESTLY BELIEVE THAT EITHER OF THESE TEAMS CAN WIN.  The Saints SUPPOSEDLY have the better defense but this game might come down to a field goal.  FINAL SCORE NEW ORLEANS 38 DALLAS 34.

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL – NEW ENGLAND -3 AT KANSAS CITY (46) – This game isn’t going to be as good as it normally would but both teams should be improving on their slow starts this year by the time the game rolls around Monday night.  Call my cellphone 703-615-4396 if you would like to know which way (if any) I am leaning for the Monday night game!

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