October 5, 2014

NFL Picks

CAROLINA -2.5 OVER CHICAGO (45.5) – This game is so ugly I don’t even want to talk about it. The Panthers can’t run the ball, nor can they stop the run, but they’ve had success throwing it a little bit. The Bears got crushed by Green Bay last week at home and looked clueless. ANYBODY can win the North except the Vikings it seems. I’m going to completely PASS on this game.

DALLAS -6 OVER HOUSTON (46.5) – The Cowboys offense is moving the football. That is for sure. DeMarco Murray has rushed for at least 100 yards the first four games and scored at least a TD in each game. Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams are a formidable 1-2 punch receiving the football and you can’t forget about TE Jason Witten. Except for J.J. Watt creating havoc for opposing offensive lines and rushing the passer, the Texans defense hasn’t been very good. Texans RB Arian Foster has been up and down with injuries. Even though the Cowboys generally don’t have much of a homefield advantage at the “Spaceship”, I think they have a shot at delivering a pretty good blow here against a struggling Texans team. Texans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been OK so far but he’s not as good a QB as Romo. TAKE THE OVER 46.5 FOR 4 STARS AND THE COWBOYS FOR 3 STARS MINUS THE 6 POINTS.

DETROIT -7 OVER BUFFALO (44) – The Lions have beaten three decent teams so far. The Giants, the Packers, and the Jets, but they’re not all that good. They DID LOSE to the Carolina Panthers and the Panthers have had problems too. To stay in the driver’s seat of the NFC North Division, the Lions aregoing to need to stop the running game of the Bills’ offensive line and RBs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. The Lions will probably NOT be able to do much against the defensive front 7 of the Bills even though they’ve had some injuries. Lions WR Calvin Johnson might be out this week but Golden Tate stepped in and performed admirally last week against Jets depleted secondary. Because of the nature of the injuries to Buffalo’s defense and the offense of the Lions, I’m going to PASS on the game.

INDIANAPOLIS -3.5 OVER BALTIMORE (48.5) – The Colts lost two tough games at the start of the season to Denver and Philly. They can’t afford to lose any more games anytime soon. After losing to the Benglas opening day, the Ravens have looked good the past three weeks. The Colts may struggle running the football against the Ravens front 7 but they’ll have to establish the run in order to keep Andrew Luck upright. Luck has thrown for 13 TDs already and only thrown 4 picks. RB Ahmad Bradshaw is dangerous not only running the football but as a receiver out of the backfield. This is probably going to be a close game but I DO LIKE THE OVER 48.5 POINTS!! TAKE THE OVER HERE FOR 5 STARS!

PITTSBURGH -6 AT JACKSONVILLE (47) – I can’t figure out the Steelers. When you think they’ve got an offense that can score some points, they sit down like last week against the Buccaneers and lose to a team that has no business beating them… AT HOME!! The Jaguars are horrible. I think everyone agrees with that, but they have their franchise QB Blake Bortles starting now. They can’t run the football and besides Rookie WR Allen Hurns and WR Allen Robinson, nobody really gives Bortles a good target to throw to. The Jags have lost by an average of 23.5 points per game. I don’t see anything really changing here going against a Steelers team that needs a win desperately. TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE 6 POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

NEW ORLEANS -10 OVER TAMPA BAY (48) – TAKE THE OVER. I’m serious. The game itself shouldn’t be close. If it is close…then they’ll hit the OVER. If it’s not close and the Saints blow out the Bucs, then it will STILL GO OVER!! The Saints just lost their best defensive back for the season. The Bucs get back their starting RB in Martin. Bobby Rainey gives them a good RB to spell Martin while he gets back in shape. With Glennon throwing the ball against a New Orleans defense that struggles against the pass (giving up0 a 105.7 QB rating with 7 TDs and 0 picks) The Saints have won 18 straight games with Sean Payton on the sidelines. I see them winning this game but I don’t think they’re going to run away with anything here. ONCE AGAIN, TAKE THE OVER 48 POINTS IN THIS GAME FOR 3 STARS!!

GIANTS -4 OVER ATLANTA (50.5) – This SHOULD be a shootout but last week the Giants forced 6 turnovers against their Division rival Washington Redskins so maybe it won’t be a shootout. Eli Manning and the Giants offense has looked good the last two weeks but that was against Houston and Washington. The Falcons can score but they have a hard time keeping their opponents from scoring. Both teams are 2-2 so a win for both of them puts them in a position to compete for their division lead. The Giants are at home. TAKE THE GIANTS MINUS THE POINTS AND THE OVER FOR 5 STARS EACH!

TENNESSEE -2 OVER CLEVELAND (44.5) – The Titans start out strong beating a decent K.C. team at home. (K.C. looked bad) Then thy run into the Cowboys, Bengals and Colts. Three good QBs and teams. Shonn Greene gets injured as does Sankey in the offensive backfield. Jake Locker also was down last week in a blowout loss to Indy. This week Locker comes back but I doubt it will be enough to take care of a Browns team that is improving and playing as well as they’ve played in year. QB Brian Hoyer has a 97.5 QB rating and not thrown a pick this season. The Browns also get starting RB Ben Tate back this week to go with West and Crowell who have been excellent so far this season out of the backfield. The Browns average 4.5 yards per carry. The Browns are also healthy, coming off of their bye week. Make no mistake about it. The Browns are the better team here. TAKE THE BROWNS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS HERE.

DENVER 7.5 OVER ARIZONA (48.5) – This is probably the MARQUEE GAME of the day here. Both teams come off of their bye weeks and they are playing like they will be around for the playoffs, even though it looks like the number 1 QB for the Cards Carson Palmer might be out for a while. Drew Stanton, Palmers understudy but no rookie to the NFL has played well so far. He has thrown 2 TDs and has no picks. The Cards have had trouble running the football and future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald has yet to get on track but make no mistake about it, this team is good. They have beaten the Chargers, Giants, and the 49ers in their first three weeks of the season. All three of those teams might make it to the playoffs this season. Their defense, led by DC Todd Bowles is tough and is extremely tough to run against. Their secondary is stellar led by Patrick Peterson and Antonio Cromartie. On offense, Stanton has great targets in Michael Floyd, Larry Fitzgerald, and John Brown. The Broncos are coming off of an OT loss to the World Champion Seahawks, nothing to be ashamed of. Peyton Manning historically comes off bye weeks with wins. TE Julius Thomas has 5 TDs so far this season AND he is on my fantasy team. The Broncos are going to have to establish the run or it might be a tough day for Manning. However, the Cards only have 3 sacks in 3 games so far. TAKE PEYTON MANNING AND HIS BRONCOS TO COVER THE 7.5 SPREAD IN MILE HIGH THIS WEEKEND!! 4 STARS HERE.

SAN DIEGO -6.5 OVER JETS (43.5) – This game is going to be a very physical confrontation between two teams that seem to be going in opposite directions. Even I picked the Jets to come out playing hard and winning some games this season. So far, the offense isn’t in sync and is turning the ball over WAY too much and the defense, even though they have a very tough front 7, has a secondary that looks like swiss cheese! The defensive backfield has given up 9 TDs and has yet to make an interception this season. Their lone win comes against a HORRIBLE Raiders team. All three of their loses come against the NFC North. The Chargers, on the other hand, are looking like a team that could end up in the Super Bowl. Phillip Rivers leads ALL NFL QBs in QB RATING so far this season with a 114.5 mark. He has thrown 9 TDs and has only one interception. Even though their average yard per carry as a team is 2.4, they have rushed 117 times and do protect Rivers on passing situations. WR Eddie Royal and TE Antonio Gates join WR Keenan Allen in a group that confuses and outruns the opposition defenders. Their defense has been just average IMO. This game could be an old fashioned shootout with Geno Smith putting the ball in the air quite a big to keep up with Rivers and his guys! TAKE THE OVER 43.5 FOR 4 STARS HERE.

KANSAS CITY +6 AT SAN FRANCISCO (44.5) – Once again here are two teams going in opposite directions IMO. After losing their first two games of the season, Alex Smith and the Chiefs seemed to be hitting on all cylinders now as they’ve beaten the Dolphins and the Patriots by a total of 46 points. RBs Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis give the Chiefs a 1-2 punch not seen anywhere else in the league this season. The Chiefs have rushed for 581 yards in their first 4 games. They have one of the best TEs in the league in Jayson Kelce who has 18 catches and 2 TDs. Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers have beaten the Dallas Cowboys opening day and held on to beat Philly last week. The Eagles had every opportunity to win that game but the San Francisco defense was extremely tough and held on at the goal line at the end of the game for the victory. WRs Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree are Colin Kaepernick’s favorite targets but Boldin so far doesn’t have a TD. TE Vernon Davis has two scores but only 9 receptions. The 49ers defense is far better than K.C’s even with some injuries to their best players. I’M GOIN TO PASS ON THIS GAME!

CINCINNATI -1 AT NEW ENGLAND (46) – If the Patriots are horrible, we’ll find out tonight when the Bengals come to Foxboro and see just how bad they are. Coming off of a bye week, the Benglas are undefeated with wins over the Ravens, Falcons, and Titans. QB Andy Dalton shows no signs of missing his former OC Jay Gruden. Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill make up a good 1-2 punch on offense running the football. The Pats only have wins against Oakland and Minnesota so far. Tom Brady looks average behind an offensive line that is having their problems. Tom Brady has lost 3 fumbles already this season and looks lost at times. TE Rob Gronkowski has also looked just average at times this season. TAKE THE MUCH BETTER CINCINNATI BENGALS MINUS THE POINT FOR 5 STARS! New England is getting too much respect here with this line.

SEATTLE -7 OVER WASHINGTON (46.5) – The Seahawks although they’ve looked at times a little weaker defensively than the past season, has a very good football team. Led by Russell Wilson, run the football efficiently and force their opponents to pass the ball. The Redskins are coming off of a blowout loss to the Giants at home where they had problems throwing the football with backup QB Kirk Cousins in for an injured Robert Griffin III. Wilson’s QB rating is 108.9. Cousins is 87.4. The Redskins will try to pound the ball on the ground to help out Cousins with his receivers and they might have SOME success doing so with Albert Morris and Roy Helu. The Redskins defense is tough against the run but I’m pretty sure that the Seahawks with Marshawn Lynch and a TOUGH offensive line that has Lynch averaging 5.1 yards per carry, will have success holding on to the football and scoring against the Redskins. THIS IS A PRETTY DAMN GOOD LINE HERE BUT……TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS HERE as they have beaten three teams that are ALL much better than the Redskins. 5 STARS ON THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS.

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