NFL MATCHUPS WEEK 11

DENVER (4-5) +6 OVER JETS (5-4) (41)

The Jets are coming off a horrible showing against the Pats on an extremely short week traveling to Denver in what turns out to be a MUST game for both teams. Since Tim Tebow has taken over the Broncos, they’ve gone 3-1. They are ONE game back in the standings in the West where an 8-8 record might get you to the playoffs. The Jets cost me and my service BIG this past week and I’m not really sure how good they are. LaDanian Tomlinson is OUT for the game this week and Mark Sanchez isn’t showing too much although he’s improved steadily since starting his rookie year and we still can’t forget that they Jets have been to TWO straight AFC championship games. The Broncos are getting more familiar with having Tebow in the lineup and when they run (they ran 55 times last game) they keep their defense off the field. Willis McGahee will be a game time decision at RB but Lance Ball proved to be just what the doctor ordered coming in and playing with Omar Moreno out also. Should something happen to Ball, it could be slim pickings for the Broncos to find a running back to take pressure off Tebow. I should leave this game alone but I’m not going to. EVERYONE in the country (90%) are betting on the Jets. I don’t see it. I don’t think they are that good. I also think that Tebow is much better than they think he is. Will their defense and their blitz schemes be successful. Probably some. But not all of the time. Tebow can make you pay when you mess up. He can run and can be a punishing type of runner at times. The pass rush for the Broncos is pretty good. The short week means more than you think, especially when you have to travel and that kills another half of a day. TAKE THE BRONCOS AND TEBOW TO COVER THE SPREAD AND IF THEY WIN THE GAME, THE NFL WILL FIND ANOTHER EXCUSE WHY THEY WON. IT COULDN’T BE BECAUSE TEBOW IS ANY GOOD. THE LEAGUE WILL MAKE SURE YOU KNOW THAT. ASSHOLES.

ATLANTA (5-4) -6 OVER TENNESSEE (5-4)(44)

Lost a close one last week between Atlanta and New Orleans in overtime. I loved Atlanta there, but Julio Jones went down in that game and the Falcon defense didn’t make enough plays to keep Drew Brees and the Saints form beating them again. Chris Johnson of the Titans has finally got his running game going after an extremely slow start. This game should be a close one and I’m going to pass on it just because neither team has shown me enough this season to trust them in a big game. PASS.

MIAMI (2-7) -2 OVER BUFFALO (5-4)(44)

The Bills are definitely the better team still here, but the Dolphins have won two in a row and the Bills are going the wrong direction. The Bills offensive line is beat up and they are making constant changes to the starters there. Ryan Fitzpatrick, fresh off signing a big new contract, is beat up also and hasn’t been as effective as of late. Fred Jackson is still running off great yardage and most of the offensive playmakers are healthy. Miami is getting some good production out of Reggie Bush and Matt Moore is finding All Pro WR Brandon Marshall regularly. Marshall had 19 catches against Buffalo in his two games against them last season. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE THE BUFFALO OFFENSE JUST DOESN’T LOOK LIKE THEY HAVE EARLIER THIS SEASON.

BALTIMORE (6-3) -7 OVER CINCINNATI (6-3) (40½)

Normally I’d say that the Ravens at home minus the 7 is a pretty good bet but Ray Lewis may not dress for the first time in a very long time. My gut tells me that this up and down team won’t be the same without him on the field and it may bother them. The Cincinnati defense is solid but they will have to deal with the loss of their best defensive back Leon Hall for the season and A.J. Green for another week probably. It doesn’t mean they can’t play well, but these two players are great players. With Ray Lewis out for the game, he’ll be on the sidelines at home coaching his boys up. Right now, the majority of the money is on Cincinnati because of Lewis’ absence. Personally, I like the Ravens in this spot. The Ravens are coming off a bad road loss against the surprising Seattle Seahawks. I don’t think the Ravens, with or without Ray Lewis, will have any trouble getting up for this game. TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS FOR A SMALL 3 STAR PLAY.

CLEVELAND (3-6) -1 OVER JACKSONVILLE (3-6)(34)

This game will not be very exciting to watch unless your children are playing in it. Probably a shitty announcing team (Steve Tasker and Bill Macatee), check, but still an NFL Sunday game for us to break down. Cleveland is literally much worse than their 3-6 record. In his first year at the helm, Montario Hardesty is probably going to play this week at RB, but he won’t be 100%. Peyton Hillis is out. I don’t see the lackluster, punchless offense of the Browns doing anything against the tough defense of Jacksonville. This game could be first one to 10 points wins. Even though rookie QB Blaine Gabbert is only completing 47.9% of his passes, the Jags have won 2 of their last 3 games. Maurice Jones-Drew is a legitimate Pro Bowler and gives defenses fits. Except for an early season 32-3 loss to the Jets, the Jags have played pretty well on the road, barely losing to the Steelers and Houston, then beating the Colts by two touchdowns last week in Indy. Colt McCoy is a better QB than Gabbert, but I’m not sure the Browns will be able to stop Jones-Drew. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME. IT’S JUST TWO TERRIBLE OFFENSE AND I CAN’T STAND TO WATCH. PASS.
DETROIT (6-3) -7 OVER CAROLINA (2-7)(47½) – Funny that this game is a 7 point spread with the Detroit Lions at home in their dome against a Carolina team that all of a sudden is struggling after losing at home to Tennessee 30-3 last week. I feel that the Panthers are starting to lose their desire and focus as the season wears on. Detroit, has lost 3 out of their last 4 games against three pretty good teams, San Francisco, Atlanta, and Chicago. The Panthers, however, don’t have nearly as much going on as those three teams. I almost feel the Lions will have a 7 point advantage just playing at home at Ford Field. This game is absolutely a must win for the Lions if they are going to have any chance at all of making the playoffs this season. Both teams should be able to run the football. With the Packers game on Thanksgiving day waiting for the Lions after this game, they better take care of business in Detroit. Normally, I’d take the Lions here, but Matthew Stafford has a bad finger and last week some of his passes looked horrible. I’ve got to pass on this one. Detroit should win this one fairly easily, but there are better games to play. PASS.
GREEN BAY (9-0) – 14 OVER TAMPA BAY (4-5) (49½) – Green Bay has an offense nobody can stop right now. Their defense is solid but the complaint I hear about the Packers is that their defense might not be good enough to repeat as Super Bowl Champs. BS!! They are first in the league in points scored with 320 in 9 games. That’s almost 35 points per game. When you are scoring that much, you also give the ball back to the team you’re playing by kicking the ball off more than most teams. Aaron Rodgers is a MONSTER QB. There isn’t anything he can’t do on a football field. James Starks and Ryan Grant give him enough running game to keep opposing defenses honest when they think about rushing the passer. When they do blitz, Rodgers makes them pay. I have the Bucs ranked an OK—team. I have the Packers ranked as a VERY GOOD team. Last week the Bucs lost 37-9 at HOME to the Texans. Green Bay will have just as much success offensively as the Texans did. The Bucs are having some problems with their defensive line so they signed Albert Haynesworth this week. I find that amazing. The guy is a cancer in the clubhouse. The Bucs have just 13 sacks in 9 games. That’s not good enough. When the Packers spread the field to throw, no pressure means big yardage. Packers CRUSH. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE 14 POINTS FOR 4 STARS. TAKE THE OVER FOR 3 STARS.

MIAMI (2-7) -2 OVER BUFFALO (5-4)(43)

This is a pretty strange line here. Buffalo, for the majority of this season, has played like one of the best teams in the league. After playing the Redskins and “catching” whatever the hell they had, they have lost two games in a row by a combined score of 71-18. Injuries have made them revamp their offensive line and I made the observation after the Redskins game that QB Ryan Fitzpatrick looked like he was hurt to me. The Bills should be able to move the football against the Dolphins, but after starting 0-7, the Dolphins have straightened things out and have won the last two. Granted, the two teams they beat by a combined score of 51-12 are the Chiefs and the Redskins, but two win it was. This is a BIG game for the Bills because if they lose this game, with their schedule coming up, they probably won’t make the playoffs. The Bills lost Eric Wood last week for the season to a knee injury and they already had a third string tackle playing left tackle. Reggie Bush will provide some offense running and catching the ball out of the backfield and Matt Moore should be able to find Brandon Marshall for some key first downs. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.

MINNESOTA (2-7) -1 OVER OAKLAND (5-4) (45 ½)

Carson Palmer is getting better each week. Oakland is holding on to first place in the AFC West by a thread. This is a game the Raiders need to win. An 8-8 record may win in the West this season so each potential win is important. I like what Christian Ponder is doing with the Vikings at QB his rookie season and I like the pressure that Jarred Allen is bringing with his pass rush and 13.5 sacks. The question here is who can stop the running game first. Oakland should be able to run the football and that should offset the pressure brought by the Minnesota front line. Oakland brings good pressure also but they’ll have their hands full with Adrian Peterson from the start of the game. He IS the toughest guy to tackle in the league. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME EVEN THOUGH OAKLAND IS THE BETTER TEAM HERE.

DALLAS (5-4) -7 AT WASHINGTON (3-6) (41.5)

This rivalry is not what it used to be. Bad feelings by old time season ticket holders in Washington towards the ownership are starting to take command here in Washington. Mike and Kyle Shanahan look like a youth league coach and his kid trying to help. It’s probably not going to work. For 12 years the Redskins have floundered in mediocrity or worse. Now the Skins are a 7 point underdog to a team that earlier this season they should have beaten. Rex Grossman gets the start again this week after leading the Skins in a 20-9 loss in Miami last week. The Skins have NO offense. Their line has been decimated by injuries. The Cowboys won’t have to worry about the Skins throwing the ball against them. If they can stop the Skins running game with Roy Helu or Ryan Torain, they should be able to shut down the offense of the Redskins completely. Last week the Cowboys crushed a Buffalo team 44-7 that shutout the Redskins two weeks ago 23-0. This could get ugly early. In their last 7 games, the Skins have averaged just over 12 points per game. That isn’t going to get it done against a Cowboy team with QB Tony Romo and playmakers like DeMarco Murray, Mark Witten, and Dez Bryant. The Cowboys could score early and often. Look for the Redskins defense to keep them in the game for a while, only to grow tired of being on the field all the time and eventually getting beat by at least two touchdowns. There will be as many Cowboys fans at this game than Redskins fans…unfortunately. They come out of the woodwork when they’re winning. When they’re losing you can’t FIND a Cowboy fan. TAKE DALLAS HERE MINUS THE POINTS FOR WHATEVER YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. I’M PLAYING THEM FOR 5 STARS.

ST. LOUIS (2-7) -3 OVER SEATTLE (3-6) (39)

Here’s another horrible game with two teams going nowhere, but the Seahawks DID BEAT the Baltimore Ravens at home last week. They have also traveled cross country to play the Giants and beat them a few weeks ago. They don’t have much offense but they do have a good defense. Neither team can seem to protect their QB very well. The Rams have won two out of their last three games and have looked much better since RB Steven Jackson has gotten healthy. He is a BEAST and can definitely control the clock and score. However, even though they’re at home in their dome, I’M GONG TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE IT’S JUST TOO CLOSE TO CALL. The betting public agrees with me.

SAN FRANCISCO (8-1) -10 OVER ARIZONA (3-6) (40.5)

Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers have proven already this season to the league that they are for real. Had they not lost the second week to Dallas in overtime, they would be undefeated right now. They have beaten the likes of Cincinnati, Philly, Detroit, and the Giants. They return to the Bay this week to take on an Arizona team that after winning opening day, then losing 6 in a row, have won their last two with last week’s win being IN PHILLY as a huge underdog. They have another chance this week with their backup QB John Skelton probably starting to overcome a double digit underdog line. I can’t imagine San Francisco no coming out and running the ball hard and playing the kind of defense that’s gotten them to where they are right now in this game. 49er RB Frank Gore has a slightly injured knee and ankle but will get some playing time. Kendall Hunter can fill in fine. Arizona has to find some way to get the ball to their playmaker WR Larry Fitzgerald. RB Beanie Wells has looked good so far this season and should get the start. He’s been playing with a sore hamstring for several games. Arizona WR Early Doucet has been a good option for both Kolb and Skelton this season. I’m going to PASS ON THIS GAME EVEN THOUGH I LIKE THE RE 49ERS.

CHICAGO (6-3) -3 ½ OVER SAN DIEGO (4-5) (45)

The Bears have won 5 out of their last 6 games and 4 in a row. They are 5-0 at home this season. The offensive line has worked out most of its problems and looked great last week in their big win against Detroit. Jay Cutler looks confident and secure back in the pocket throwing the ball now. Matt Forte is still getting more touches than anyone in the league and that is working out for the Bears. In 9 games he has rushed for 869 yards and caught 42 passes for another 439. He’s having an MVP season. Now of all things, offensive coordinator Mike Martz is running almost as much as he’s throwing. Who woulda thunk it? The Bears have great special teams and Devin Hester is a monster returning kicks. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers (as anyone who knows me knows) are not very good. They are not very well coached and unless the Bears just come out flat, they should win easily. The Chargers may have as many as three starting offensive linemen out for the game. Phillip Rivers will have a tough time throwing against the Bears swarming defense. Rivers has 19 turnovers. He and the offense are struggling. I don’t see enough weapons for the Chargers to be able to score with the Bears. Last week in a game against the Raiders, the Chargers gave up 254 total yards to backup running back Michael Bush. Forte will have a big day. His running should set up Cutler’s passes to his other WR’s. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS. A LATE DAY HEDGE WITH THE OVER 45 POINTS MY BE A GOOD CALL. I’LL DELIBERATE AND LET YOU KNOW.

GIANTS (6-3) – 5 ½ OVER PHILLY (3-6) (45.5)

These two teams could just as easily be tied for the lead in the NFC East, but Philly has struggled trying to find the chemistry of all the new players on their team and injuries now to QB Michael Vick may send Vince Young to his first start of the season. He has two broken ribs and there’s a good chance he won’t start. The Giants, as all of you know, don’t play nearly as well at home as they do on the road. Last week they almost pulled off a win in San Francisco but lost a close game. After Philly their schedule doesn’t get any easier so they better get a win here this week. LeShaun McCoy is a monster RB for the Eagles. He has rushed for 906 yards and a 5.5 yard average. Vick himself has over 500 yards rushing and he’s a QB! Eli Manning and the Giants have an excellent passing game and Eli may be having the best season of his career. This game could come down to the last possession of the game. That’s how evenly matched these two teams are. Giants RB Ahmad Bradshaw is OUT again this week. That means that Brandon Jacobs gets the call again this week to carry most of the load. This may be the best game of the day to watch. If Vick starts, I like the EAGLES FOR A SMALL PLAY, IF VICK DOESN’T START, I’LL PASS ON THE GAME.

MONDAY NIGHT GAME

NEW ENGLAND (6-3) -15 OVER KANSAS CITY (4-5) (46.5)

It should be a beautiful chilly night in Foxboro Monday night for the Pats to welcome back one of their own, QB Matt Cassel, who took over for an injured Tom Brady a few years ago to lead the Pats into the playoffs. Cassel has played well in K.C. but it hasn’t been the same. The Chiefs are still in the race in the AFC West and will be for a few more games. If they play on doing something this season, they’ll need to win games like this. Because of a multitude of injuries to some of the better Chiefs players including their starting RB, Jackie Battle and Dexter McCluster have filled in and done a good job at the position. After winning 4 games in a row, K.C. has lost two at home to Miami and Denver, two teams who have struggled most of the season. Now they travel to one of the toughest places to play in the league and the Pats need a win also, which won’t make it any easier. Brady struggled at times with interceptions but has a QB rating over 100. Wes Welker has caught 73 passes already and surpassed the 1,000 yard mark already. TE Rob Gronkowski has had a phenomenal year so far also catching 52 passes for 709 yards. He creates matchup NIGHTMARES for the opposing defenses. I LOVE THE PATS HERE AND AM GOING TO GIVE THE BIG NUMBER FOR 3 STARS AND TAKE THE OVER FOR 5 STARS.