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GREEN BAY (10-0) -6 ½ AT DETROIT (7-3)(5 ½) – This is going to be one of the best Thanksgiving Day games in Detroit in some time. At least it means something for the Lions for a change. Green Bay has won 16 games in a row dating back to last season and a Super Bowl victory. Detroit started off 5-0 this season only to go 2-3 in its past 5 games. The Packers are a better team than the Lions for sure, but how much better in Detroit remains to be seen. Both teams are almost mirror images of each other offensively. Neither team really relies on the run too much and both give up more yardage on the ground than they make themselves. The Packers are deeper personnel wise and have Aaron Rodgers. Even though Matt Stafford is a good QB, he’s still young and makes mistakes. He’s been picked off 10 times this season. He has an injured finger that is supposedly getting better. He threw 5 TD passes last week against Carolina, bringing the Lions back from a 24-3 deficit. The Lions lost to San Francisco and Atlanta at home this season, which proves that their home field advantage there isn’t much of one. The Packers are better than both of those teams. Indoors, Aaron Rodgers’ numbers are unbelievable, something like a 125 QB rating when it’s 72 degrees and no wind. I’M TAKING THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS AND THE OVER FOR 4 STARS EACH. Everyone in the country is probably on the same numbers, but I don’t care. If Detroit is going to keep it close (and last weekend they scored 49 points), they’ll have to score at least 31 points in this game. I don’t see Detroit slowing the Packers offense down unless Rodgers gets hurt. Green Bay has played better at home than on the road, but the road doesn’t seem to cause them many problems. CALL 1-800-466-4748 for an updated evaluation of the game after 8 a.m. on THANKSGIVING!
DALLAS (6-4) – 7 OVER MIAMI (3-7)(44) – I HAVE THE COWBOYS RATED AT OK ++. I HAVE THE DOLPHINS RATED AT OK. The Cowboys are sitting at the top of the NFC East after their 3rd straight win over the Washington Redskins last week in overtime. We lost on the Cowboys ATS but they didn’t play all that well and the Redskins blew a couple of chances to win the game outright. This is a perfect opportunity for the Boys to blow a home game against a team that really isn’t all that bad. However, Tony Romo, Jason Witten, DeMarco Murray, and Dez Bryant probably won’t let that happen. However, when you take a look at the number of points that Miami’s defense has given up the last 5 games (18, 20, 3, 9, and 8) you have to say that it’s impressive. Dallas scored 27 points against a decent Skins defense last week, but barely beat a team that Miami handled at home the week before. Reggie Bush should be good on the Dallas turf and Miami’s defense should be able to keep the game close. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME AT THIS TIME. CALL 1-800-466-4748 FOR MY RELEASE ON THANKSGIVING AFTER 11 A.M.
BALTIMORE (7-3) – 3 OVER SAN FRANCISCO (9-1)(39) – For the first time in the history of the NFL, two teams with head coaches that are BROTHERS will face off in a game. Not only are the two head coaches brothers, but their father was a college head coach and scout in the NFL also. It doesn’t get any better than this for a proud mom and dad who will be in attendance in Baltimore tomorrow night. After moving to the 49ers from Stanford University, Jim Harbaugh has proven to be exactly what San Francisco has needed to turn around their franchise. Their defense has played exceptionally well. Alex Smith, who some believed would never be a good NFL quarterback, is doing a great job at the helm of this offense, which runs more than they pass. The 49ers have covered the spread all but two games this season. They are a FORCE. Frank Gore is a bit knicked up with a sore knee and ankle, but they have an exceptional backup RB in Kendall Hunter. Vernon Davis is one of the top TE’s in the league. Michael Crabtree is improving slowly and Alex Smith seems comfortable throwing to any number of different receivers on his team, including offensive linemen. The Ravens have been inconsistent, but their defense is solid. Ray Lewis sat out last game but did a great job of coaching from the sidelines against the Bengals. Ray Rice is averaging 4.2 yards per carry but needs more touches for sure. He is also their leading receiver. Joe Flacco has struggled at times this season and it looks like Anquan Boldin is slowed by an injury. TE Ed Dickson out of Oregon is a solid receiver at TD and becoming a favorite of Flacco’s. The 49ers have looked at times like world beaters and really haven’t played a bad game yet this season. I HAVE A THEORY AND HERE IT IS!! Look, these guys are brothers and neither one of them wants to lose, but the one brother who CAN’T AFFORD ANOTHER LOSS is John Harbaugh and his Ravens. The 49ers have all but wrapped off the NFC West and their playoff berth already. The 49ers are on a short week (so are the Ravens) and even if they have the better of the two teams, I feel that the advantage on Bird Day is with the home team Ravens. They are 5-0 at home and the least amount of points they’ve scored is 29 in those 5 wins. The 49ers are UNDEFEATED on the road but something has to give. I look for them to lose their second game of the season against the Ravens in Baltimore. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUST THE 3 POINTS TO WIN AND COVER AT A GAME THAT I WILL BE IN ATTENDANCE. I’M LOOKING FORWARD TO SPENDING MY TURKEY DAY NIGHT WITH THE HARBAUGH FAMILY AND MAKE THAT JUST ONE MORE GREAT SPORTING EVENT I’VE BEEN AT IN MY LIFE. 3 STARS NOTHING BIG. Gonna be a big time DEFENSIVE PLAY SO HAVE FUN WITH THE UNDER TOO. I don’t see either defense giving up much scoring in this one.
ATLANTA (6-4) – 9½ OVER MINNESOTA (2-8) (44) – The Falcons have won 4 of their last 5 games with the only loss coming at home in OT against the Saints WHEN I WAS ON THEM! Anyway, this is a game the Falcons absolutely have to have to keep any hopes alive they will be in the playoffs this season. Minny just lost Adrian Peterson for a while so they won’t be able to run the ball as effectively as usual. Toby Gerhart will replace him and should do fine, but he isn’t A.P. The Vikings are in heavy duty rebuild mode and with young Christian Ponder it looks like they already have their QB. That means that with their first pick they’ll get an excellent football player to add to their roster next year. This year, there is a chance they will not win one more game this season. The Falcons are not that much better than the Vikings this year, but their record is and they have improved over the last several games. I’m GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.
CINCINNATI (6-4) -7 ½ OVER CLEVELAND (4-6) (37 ½) – Two teams going in opposite directions. Cleveland is lucky to have won 4 games this year. Cincinnati is probably better thant heir 6-4 record. Andy Dalton is doing a good job at QB his rookie year in Cincy and the Browns’ Colt McCoy is looking OK in his second year. The Browns have struggled with their offense all year long. The Bengals offense is pretty solid and beat the Browns opening day in Cleveland 27-17. They’ve played the Ravens and the Steelers tough lately. I doubt the Browns will be able to put up enough of a fight to stay close to the Bengals. The Bengals did lose their best defensive player, CB Leon Hall a couple of weeks ago for the season. The Browns really don’t have much of a passing game. They might get Peyton Hillis back this week in the offensive backfield. I have the Bengals rated OK+ and the Browns rated OK–. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS OVER THE BROWNS FOR 3 STARS.
CAROLINA (2-8) -3 ½ OVER INDIANAPOLIS (0-10) (46 ½) – There are a few handicappers and “experts” picking the Colts to win their first game of the year here at home against the Panthers. I don’t personally see it myself, but hey, you’d think they’ve got to win sometime right? NOT! This Colts defense is SO bad I don’t have them winning ONE game this season and winning the Andrew Luck Bowl drawing. Cam Newton has had a very good rookie year so far but as of late, he’s been wearing down and throwing some picks. He has 12 TD’s and 14 interceptions so far this season. Colts QB Curtis Painter is struggling this season and only has a 67.4 QB rating. Newton is at 80. The Colts have given up 1,000 yards more than they have rushed and passed for. The Panthers should be able to move the ball up and down the field against this non-defense of the Colts. I don’t see the Colts being able to score with them. I’M PASSING ON THE GAME BUT TAKING THE OVER 46½ POINTS FOR 4 STARS. THERE WILL BE SOME POINTS SCORED HERE INDOORS.
HOUSTON (7-3) -6 ½ OVER JACKSONVILLE (3-7) (37) – Houston’s Matt Schaub is lost for the season and former Heisman Trophy winner Matt Leinart will finally get the opportunity to see if he can successfully QB an NFL team. What a team and what a year to get a chance to do that this would be. With Peyton Manning out indefinitely for the Indianapolis Colts, the Houston Texans are in the driver’s seat of the AFC South with a 7-3 record. Their schedule offers them a chance at 12 wins and a division title. Coming off an extra week to prepare after Schaub’s injury, Leinart should be ready to play. With Arian Foster and Ben Tate running the football and getting back Andre Johnson to go along with an already good group of receivers, everything is in place to continue to dominate the South. The Texans have won 4 games in a row with one of the wins being against this same Jaguar team three weeks ago. The MVP so far in the AFC as far as I’m concerned isn’t a player. It’s Wade Phillips, the defensive coordinator who came from losing his head coaching job in Dallas to go back to his roots coaching the defense. Head Coach Jack Del Rio of Jacksonville is looking like he might lose his job soon if he doesn’t get anything going with the Jaguars. He still has Maurice Jones-Drew but rookie QB Blaine Gabbert has struggled with his weak pass receivers and offense. I look for the Texans to come out scoring in bunches against a good Jacksonville defense that has been decimated as of late with injuries. TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS.
JETS (5-5) -9 ½ OVE BUFFALO (5-5) (42) – Two teams that looked early like they might both be in the playoffs now both look like they will struggle to even have a chance to get there. I have the Jets rated OK and the Bills rated OK and guess what? They’re both 5-5 which is OK. The Jets are coming off two straight loses to the Patriots and the Tim Tebow’s of Denver. The Bills have lost 3 in a row to the Jets, Dallas, and Miami by a combined score of 106-26. That is pretty piss poor. The Jets have an opportunity with their schedule to still make the playoffs. The Bills, after losing this game, not so much. After signing a big contract, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is struggling and now has lost his biggest offensive weapon in Fred Jackson to a broken leg. The Bills will have their 3rd center in 3 weeks this week when Kraig Urbick, usually their right guard, starts there. The Jets have a much better defense than the Bills. I look for the Jets to easily win by 10 points to defeat the Bills and knock them out of any chance for the playoffs. I’M TAKING THE JETS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS.
ST. LOUIS (2-8) -2 ½ OVER ARIZONA (3-7) (39 ½) – Seriously, who cares? The famous announcing crew of Sam Rosen and Chad Pennington should tell you all you need to know about this game. If anyone is caught playing this game for any reason, they should have their head examined. QB Kevin Kolb may get the start on Sunday after being cleared to work out this week. He will be a game time decisions as far as I know. These two teams went into overtime three weeks ago and the Cardinals won 19-13. Look for the Rams to ride the strong back of RB Steven Jackson and the limited receiving corps of QB Sam Bradford. The Rams offensive line situation, however, is desperate having lost Roger Saffold and his replacement Mark LeVoir. They were already thin. Future Hall of Famer Larry Fitzgerald is probably wondering when he’ll play in a game that actually means something. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BETWEEN TWO TEAMS GOING ABSOLUTELY NOWHERE ANYTIME SOON. PASS.
TENNESSEE (5-5) -3 OVER TAMPA BAY (4-6) (43) – Both of these teams need a win pretty much to have ANY chance of making the playoffs this season. My odds give them both 0 chance of making the playoffs. After winning 4 of their first 6 games, the Bucs have lost 4 in a row facing Chicago, New Orleans, Houston, and Green Bay. They step down in class facing the Titans and are just a 3 point favorite. Last week against the Packers, the Bucs had a good outing. LeGarrette Blount ran the ball well and QB Josh Freeman had a career day. It wasn’t enough to beat the 11-0 Green Bay Packers however. The Titans have been up and down all season long. The only team of any real quality that the Titans have beaten was the Baltimore Ravens the second week of the season. All 5 losses have come against quality teams. Tampa doesn’t fall into that category. Matt Hasselbeck will get the start on Sunday after injuring his elbow last week and rookie Jake Locker finished the game. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME FOR SURE. IT’S A TOSS UP.
OAKLAND (6-4) -3 OVER CHICAGO (7-3) (43 ½) – After losing two in a row at home against Kansas City and Denver, the Raiders went on the road and won two game against San Diego and Minnesota to bring their record to the AFC West lead at 6-4. Carson Palmer is improving each week and the Raiders look to get back Darren McFadden possibly this week for a few carries. Michael Bush has done an excellent job in his absence. Jacoby Ford is OUT for the week at WR. On the other side of the ball, Chicago’s starting QB Jay Cutler is out with a broken thumb. Backup Caleb Hanie will be ready and do a good job in his absence. The Bears should not miss a beat. Darrius Heyward-Bey is questionable but should play for Oakland. The Bears have won 5 games in a row. Both teams will attack the other teams defense with the running game first. I expect Oakland to load 8 men in the box and force Hanie to throw the ball to beat them. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.
SEATTLE (4-6) – 3 OVER SKINS (3-7)(37 ½) – Even my contacts in Seattle close to the team say that they wouldn’t be surprised if Washington came in and beat the Seahawks on Sunday. For that to be true, I’d have to ask the question, “How in the hell did the Seahawks beat the Ravens then?” The Seahawks best players are on the defensive side of the ball. Their front seven are as good as anyone’s in the league. Unfortunately for them, their offense blows pretty bad. Marshawn Lynch is a legitimate baller, but even with his talent, he’s just averaging 3.8 yards per carry for this weak offense. Their QB Tavaris Jackson struggles and has thrown only 7 TD’s and 11 picks. The Seahawks are going to stop what little run the Skins have and force Rex Grossman to beat them. Grossman’s numbers are similar to Jackson’s. 8 TD’s and 12 picks. Grossman should get Santana Moss back this week after injuring his wrist earlier this season. He’ll need him to stretch the field for his offense to be successful. This is the Skins’ 11th game of the season and their two healthy running backs, Roy Helu and Ryan Torain, have just 248 and 192 yards respectively. That’s unbelievable. The offensive line has been decimated by injuries so far this season. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE IT COULD GO EITHER WAY. I DON’T SEE THE SKINS WINNING THIS GAME BUT I DON’T REALLY SEE MUCH BETTER ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE BALL.
NEW ENGLAND (7-3) -3 ½ OVER PHILADELPHIA (4-6) (50.5) – This could be one of the best games of the day here. New England travels into Philly to take on an Eagle team that has been a mystery all season long. Michael Vick is injured and last week his backup Vince Young led the Eagles to a 17-10 win in New York in a HUGE division game. Even though Philly has most of their weapons for this game, Jeremy Macklin is a game time decision and Michael Vick is questionable but I’m not sure he’ll get the start quite yet. OT King Dunlap is out for the Eagles with a concussion. Tom Brady and New England’s offense will not have such an easy time of it against this talented defensive backfield of the Eagles. The Pats are also playing a bunch of young inexperienced defenders against a pretty good offense. If Vince Young starts for Philly, I see Belichick forcing him to throw the ball. New England will have to stop LeSean McCoy to have any chance of doing that. If Vick starts, he’ll be less than 100% and I’d look for the Pats to attack him and upset his rhythm in the pocket. Brady has been more prone to turnovers this season and the Eagles defensive line has put lots of pressure on opposing QB’s. IF VICK STARTS, I LIKE THE OVER 50.5 POINTS FOR 4 STARS. IF YOUNG STARTS, I LIKE THE PATS WINNING AND COVERING THE 3 ½ POINT SPREAD.
SAN DIEGO (4-6) -5 ½ OVER DENVER (5-5)(45.5) – The Broncos have won 4 out of their last 5 since Tim Tebow took over the reigns as the Broncos QB. Sure he’s only completing 44.8% of his passes and misses wide open receivers from time to time, but he’s WINNING, and he’s fun to watch and when he takes off and runs NOBODY really wants to tackle him. Kyle Orton was picked up on waivers by the Kansas City Chiefs this week so Brady Quinn is now the backup to Tebow. The Chargers will have both Ryan Matthews and Mike Tolbert healthy this weekend for the game. Phillip Rivers has been struggling and Norv Turner can’t figure out what to do. Both the Broncos and the Chargers have had problems keeping opposing teams from throwing the ball on them. Since Tebow has taken over at QB for the Broncos, they have gone almost strictly to the running game with some passes mixed in. Rivers has thrown 17 picks already this season. Marcus McNeil is out for San Diego. So is WR Malcolm Floyd. G Luis Vasquez is doubtful. San Diego has struggled on defense since losing to the Jets a month ago. Injuries aren’t making things better. The Broncos, on the other hand, are pretty healthy. Their defense has stepped up and played well the last few weeks. There is something going on in Denver and Tim Tebow is making believers out of everyone. Add to that Norv and his struggling Chargers and I don’t see them stopping the Tebow Train. San Diego beat the Broncos earlier this season in Denver. I’m looking for the Broncos to return the favor on Sunday. I’M TAKING THE BRONCOS PLUS THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS IN THIS GAME.
PITTSBURGH (7-3) -10.5 OVER KANSAS CITY (4-6)(40) – Even though the Chiefs acquired Kyle Orton this past week on waivers and he’ll eventually start in K.C., Tyler Palko will probably get his second straight start at QB for the Chiefs. The Steelers behind broken fingered Ben Roethelisberger will probably not have much of a problem with the Chiefs who have surrounded four wins in a row mid season with seven losses. Miami beat the Chiefs three weeks ago 31-3. The Steelers aren’t going to be any easier. The Chiefs especially have had a tough time with pass protection all year long and facing the blitz schemes of the Steelers will present some serious problems for Palko and the offense. The Steelers are banged up and Big Ben does have a broken thumb but the Steelers should leave K.C. after Sunday with a win. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME COMPLETELY.
MONDAY NIGHT GAME
NEW YORK GIANTS (6-4) +7 OVER NEW ORLEANS (7-3) (51) – The Giants have lost two games in a row in San Francisco and last week at home against Philly. They played a good game against the 49ers and had a chance to upset them. Last week, they got nothing out of any parts of their team. They faced backup QB Vince Young and ended up losing 17-10. They can’t afford to go into New Orleans this week and do anything but be victorious or their season might be over sooner than later. The Giants, as most of you know, are usually road warriors. They are an excellent traveling team. The Saints are coming off a bye week and are healthy. Eli Manning grew up in New Orleans and will have quite a few fans there and the Giants should have a healthy group of receivers ready for the game. The Saints defense under Gregg Williams has been a good defense usually but this season they’ve struggled especially against the run. The problem this week is Ahmad Bradshaw is still out. Brandon Jacobs and the offensive line had their problems last week with the running game. Now Will Beatty is out for quite a while having surgery this past week. LB Michael Boley will miss another game this week with an injury. If the Giants can protect Eli and get some decent runs out of Brandon Jacobs, then the Giants should be able to take advantage of their good receiving corps of Victor Cruz, Mario Manningham, Hakeem Nicks, and Jake Ballard. This is a doe or die game for the Giants. Not so much for the Saints. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE 7 POINTS AND PLAY THE GIANTS AND PLAY OVER 51 POINTS FOR 5 STARS.