PITTSBURGH (9-3) -14 OVER CLEVELAND (4-8)(38.5) – Steelers clearly the much better team here. Short week last time didn’t work out that well for Steelers barely beating the Chiefs. Now the horrible Browns but a division game nonetheless. Steelers have won 15 out of last 16 games in this series, which tells you a little bit about the matchup. Steelers may not have Woodley at LB. Cleveland isn’t doing anything any different late in the season but is supposed to play Peyton Hillis. Big Ben is a little banged up but he always is. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE I LIKE THE STEELERS SIDE OF THE GAME, BUT INJURIES AND THE SHORT WEEK GIVE ME WAY TO MANY THINGS TO DEAL WITH TO FIGURE OUT WHO REALLY COVERS. PASS.

BALTIMORE (9-3) -16½ OVER INDY (0-12)(41) – Second huge NFL line in two weeks. Patriots played games with the point spread (in my opinion) So many people right now on the Colts PLUS the points, I’m inclined to go with Ravens minus the points for 3 stars just to counter the damage done last week. There is NO WAY that Pats couldn’t have kept the foot on the pedal last week. Who knows why it stopped, but it stopped. Indy’s defense no matter what happened last week, still can’t stop anyone. The Ravens have been especially tough at home, seeming to play much harder and be more focused for their home fans. Ray Rice last week had his best week of the year. Finally, it looks like Cam Cameron has figured out that he needs to run the football for his offense to be effective. He obviously spent too much time with Norv Turner. He WILL be able to do that at will against the Colts. If Colts stack the box, BOOM long balls everywhere for points.

ATLANTA (7-5) -2½ OVER CAROLINA (4-8)(47½) – Last week in a loss in Houston to the Texans, the Falcons looked anything but playoff worthy, losing 17-10 to a team led by a rookie QB. Matt Ryan was anything but his usual self. Now the Falcons face a MUST WIN situation in Charlotte against the struggling Panthers. Rookie QB Cam Newton set an NFL record last week with his 13th rushing TD of the season. Earlier this season in Atlanta, the Panthers lost 31-17 to the Falcons. The Panthers are running the football better now and Newton is gaining experience and confidence. However, this isn’t going to be enough to get me to play this game one way or the other. PASS.

CINCINNATI (7-5) -3 OVER HOUSTON (8-3)(37) – This will be a good game to watch between possibly two playoff teams and might actually be a repeat matchup in the playoffs. Personally, I like the Texans being the better team here, but because they’re still starting T.J. Yates, their 3rd string QB, Cincy is holding their value in Vegas. Personally, I think this will be a very low scoring game. Houston has the TOP DEFENSE IN THE LEAGUE this year and Wade Phillips has them kicking butt. WR Andre Johnson is out this week and probably next week with a Grade A hammy pull. They still have the top running back tandem in the league with Arian Foster and Ben Tate and they will be able to give the Texans enough of a running game to offset the Cincinnati defensive front 7. With their top CB out for the year, Cincy will have trouble if they stack 8 or 9 in the box with Houston’s play action. Yates’ third week in a row starting for Kubiak will make a big difference.
Even though the Bengals absolutely NEED this game worse, I’m going with the better team, the Texans. I’M TAKING THE TEXANS PLUS THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS.

DETROIT (7-5) –7 OVER MINNESOTA (2-10)(47.5) – Who would have ever thought that this Viking team would be one of the worst teams in the league with only 2 wins at this point in the season? Ndamukong Suh is not only on sabbatical from the league for 2 games for stomping the arm of a fellow union member, but he ran his car into a few things this past weekend with some girls in tow, who left the scene of the accident only to return and say they were hurt. What a surprise? The Vikings have lost 6 of their last 7 games and now travel to division foe Detroit who MUST WIN this game to continue to fight for a playoff spot. Matt Stafford has his splint off of his finger now and supposedly threw easily this past week in practice. Minnesota’s secondary is in shambles. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE POINTS HERE TO WIN AND COVER THE SPREAD FOR 4 STARS.

GREEN BAY (12-0) -11½ OVER OAKLAND (7-5)(51½) – Now you can get odds (-300) on whether the Packers will go undefeated. They may indeed lose one of their last four games or more of the season, but I doubt the Raiders game will be one of them. The Raiders last week did me right by getting hammered by the resurgent Miami Dolphins 34-16. The Packers last week were a part of a big play on the OVER in the Giants matchup where 73 total points were scored. They are averaging 35 points a game and the Raiders defense recently hasn’t been playing so well. This is a MUST WIN for the Raiders but I don’t see them going into Lambeau Field and winning against a Packer team that has its sights set on 16-0 and a Super Bowl. The Raiders should be able to score against the Packers and we know the Packers will score on them. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER 51.5 GAMES TO COVER. CHECK THE WEATHER.

TAMPA BAY (4-8) +3 OVER JACKSONVILLE (3-9)(41) – There is probably now way that I can talk myself into playing this game. My instincts say no. My instincts also say to not watch this game. Bucs QB Josh Freeman has been struggling. I HAVE THE BUCS RATED A SUCK TEAM. The Jags are only slightly better rated as an OK—team. I’m going to have to pass on this game altogether. I doubt Blaine Gabbert will be able to give me ANY reason why I should pick the home team. I AM FORCED TO PASS ON THIS HORRIBLE GAME TO WATCH HERE. BOTH HEAD COACHES (ONE AN INTERIM COACH) WILL PROBABLY LOSE THEIR JOBS AFTER THIS SEASON.

MIAMI (4-8) -3 OVER PHILLY (4-8)(45.5) – Two teams going entirely opposite directions here portray a strange game between two supposedly decent teams with 4-8 records each. Miami has played exceptionally well over the past 7 weeks. The Eagles have lost 4 of 5 but should be getting starting QB Mike Vick back this week. LeShawn McCoy is a force at RB for the Eagles. The Eagles are still a decent game on paper, rating as an OK team but have a -13 turnover ratio. This line between these two teams should say everything that needs to be said about this season for the suddenly dysfunctional Philadelphia Eagles. I’d love to say that Andy Reid’s job isn’t in jeopardy, but I’m starting to think it probably is. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME, ALTHOUGH MY GUT SAYS MIAMI.

JETS (7-5) -10½ OVER KANSAS CITY (5-7)(36.5) – The Chiefs are fresh off a big upset in Chicago where Romeo Crennel’s defense had nothing but answers for everything backup QB Caleb Hanie tried to do against them last week. Mike Martz must have been on a suicide watch after the game. Nobody (including me) thought the Chiefs would cover let alone win this game. This week they travel again to play Rex Ryan and the Jets in a game that both teams need badly. Realistically, the Jets are the only team that really have a chance here. The question I have is will they have enough offense against a resurgent Chiefs defense to cover the 10 ½ points? Mark Sanchez is adequate at QB. The Jets are fresh off a comeback win last week in Washington against a less than average Redskins team. The Jets are definitely a better team at home where they are 5-1 this season. Their only loss came against the Patriots. The Jets are knicked up but it looks like everyone will play. Tyler Palko will get the start for the Chiefs again where he’s been anything but good, but seems to be improving. Kyle Orton came in for one play last week and dislocated a finger. Unbelievable! Look for a heavy dose of short passes mixed with Shonn Greene from the Jets offense. Crennel will have some tricks up his sleeve for Mark Sanchez and will probably try to duplicate what the Redskins defense was doing for 3 quarters last week. I’m going to take the Jets minus the points for 3 stars. I may even end up passing on the game by Sunday. The Jets really don’t do much for me but they ARE AT HOME.

NEW ORLEANS (9-3) -3 ½ OVER TENNESSEE (7-5)(50.5) – I love this game this week. Not so much playing it, as watching it. Chris Johnson of the Titans is back full force. Matt Hasselbeck has been decent all year running the Titans defense and have won three of their last four games. Early this season the Titans beat the Ravens at home. Will they be able to do it again against a sure Super Bowl contender like the Saints? The Saints go on the road this week where they’ve had trouble this season. All three of their losses have been on the road. This is a MUST win for coach Mike Munchak and the Titans. Since getting blown out at home against the Texans Week 7, they’ve won 4 out of 6 and recently their offense has been improved. New Orleans, however, will pose some problems for their defense they haven’t seen since the Texans game. The Saints could lose this game and be in fine shape for the playoffs. The Titans really can’t afford a loss, especially at home. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BUT WATCH IT CLOSELY. How the Titans play here will determine the rest of their season.

NEW ENGLAND (9-3) -8 ½ OVER SKINS (4-8)(48.5) – The Pats come into Washington fresh off 4 wins in a row and a suspect non-performance against the Indianapolis Colts last week. The Pats have plenty of offense but the Redskins defense is the strength of their team. Brady should have no trouble with Washington’s secondary which suffered at the inability of the offense last week to hold off a late surge by the Jets. Pats DE Andre Carter returns to the Skins to show them how much he’s improved this year. He leads the Pats in sacks with 9 so far this year. The Skins didn’t sign him because he didn’t “fit in” to their 3-4 defense they run now. Rex Grossman has throw 10 TD’s and 15 interceptions to go along with 3 lost fumbles, and HE is their best option at QB. Roy Helu has looked great at running back for the Skins and will get a heavy dose (hopefully) of carries against the front 7 of the Pats. He is averaging 4.7 yards per carry this season. The Skins just lost two of their best players for the season in LT Trent Williams and TE Fred Davis. Williams was by far the best offensive lineman for the Redskins and TE Fred Davis has 59 receptions on the year. They are irreplaceable and they Skins will notice them missing. SS LeRon Landry is out again for the Skins. Look for Brady to spread the field and move the ball in the no huddle against a defense which tires easily. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE PATS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS. I’M ALSO HEDGING WITH THE OVER FOR 3 STARS HERE.

SAN FRANCISCO (10-2) -4 OVER ARIZONA (5-7)(37) – This is going to be a better football game than it looks like. Vegas recognizes that with their line of just 4 points. The Cards after a horrific start, have won 4 of their last 5 games and are on a roll. Two of those wins, however, have come against the lowly St. Louis Rams. With a big comeback win last week against the Cowboys, Coach Ken Whisenhunt has his team playing well, but this 49er team is better than any team they’ve seen this year. That doesn’t mean it’s an easy win and cover for the 49ers. There are questions now that they’ve wrapped up the NFC West title. How much will RB Frank Gore get the ball. Will they rest his sore body? Next week the 49ers have the Pittsburgh Steelers coming into town to play. Will they be looking ahead instead of concentrating on the Cardinals this week? One thing that the 49ers will have to pay close attention to is the special teams play of Patrick Peterson and the teams for Arizona. Peterson has returned 4 punts for TD’s this season. He also is improving at the cornerback position to be a stud. LB Patrick Willis is likely OUT for the game with a hamstring injury. They need him to get better. That is HUGE. QB Kevin Kolb has looked good since coming back from injury. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BUT SPEND A LOT OF TIME BREAKING IT DOWN. GOOD GAME TO WATCH FOR SURE.

DENVER (7-5) -3 OVER CHICAGO (7-5)(35.5) – Two teams obviously going in opposite directions. The Denver Flying Tim Tebows go home to a sold out stadium to take on the Bears who have lost their QB Jay Cutler and their way to the playoffs. Caleb Hanie has NOT been what they thought they had at backup QB. He’s thrown six interceptions in two starts. Mike Martz must be losing his mind. Last week somehow they failed to score a touchdown and lost to the Chiefs at home 10-3 for their second loss in a row. Before those two game they had won 5 games in a row to look like a force for the playoffs. They’ve also maybe lost their bread and butter star RB Matt Forte go down with a knee injury which makes their offense even less potent. Denver, on the other hand, has won 5 games in a row with a run first offense and Tim Tebow at QB. He has his teammates believing in him and so does most of the rest of the country. Vegas, however, not as much. RB Willis McGahee has stepped in at QB in the option and done a great job there. Tebow himself has rushed for 468 yards and a 5.7 yards per carry average. The real story of the Broncos is their play on defense and maybe that’s why John Fox was brought in. It certainly isn’t because of his prowess as a head coach. The Broncos are banged up but I see them beating up on a Bears offense that is struggling and keeping them off the field. I’ll ride Tebow till he doesn’t cover and win. TAKE THE DENVER BRONCOS AND TEBOW TO COVER THE SPREAD AND WIN FOR 5 STARS.

SAN DIEGO (5-7) -7 OVER BUFFALO (5-7)(48) – So finally San Diego won a football game and EVERONE is all over the Chargers as being back, right? Maybe not. But I’m not going to pick the Bills as the team to come into San Diego to upset the Chargers at home. The Chargers should win this game for sure, but I’m not trusting enough in this team to cover. Rather than tell you all the reasons why, let’s just get off this game and go to something worth covering. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME. Two teams going nowhere fast.

DALLAS (6-6) -4 ½ OVER GIANTS (6-6)(50.5) – We knew that the Giants would have a run on their schedule that was going to be tough, but nobody thought it would take this toll on the Giants. After their BYE week, the y have played Miami, New England, San Francisco, Philly, New Orleans, and Green Bay. They’ve lost 4 in a row and are on the verge of shutting themselves out of the playoffs again this year. QB Eli Manning is having a very good season. They got Ahmad Bradshaw back last week and he made a difference. They just missed upsetting the Packers and their streak at home last week. Their mistake was their play calling and clock control at the end of the game. They left the Packers too much time on the clock. C David Baas is OUT. Osi Yuminyora is OUT. The Cowboys figured out a way to lose in Arizona last week against the Cardinals in overtime. Tony Romo is 7-11 in December games. It shouldn’t be the cold weather bothering him. HE’S FROM FREAKING WISCONSIN FOR GOODNESS SAKES. Both of these teams are facing a must win situation. If the Cowboys win, they are in the driver’s seat for the NFC crown. If the Giants don’t win, their season is OVER. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER 50.5 FOR 5 STARS HERE. Both offenses will be able to move the ball against both defenses. Normally, I’d take the Giants here with their road warrior mentality, and I may still take them late, but without Dave Baas at C I’m worried about the offensive line and their running game and handling the Cowboys blitz packages and rush of DeMarcus Ware and company. DeMarco Murray and Felix Jones will hammer away at a Giants defensive line that gives up yardage in big chunks. Eli Manning and the Giants offense, led by WR Victory Cruz and his 62 catches for over 1,000 yards will score against Dallas, but probably not enough to win.

SEATTLE (5-7) -10 OVER ST. LOUIS (2-10)(37) – It looks like 3rd string QB Tom Brandstater, elevated from the practice squad last week, will become the starting QB of the Rams this week. Not exactly the game that ESPN wanted when they schedule it I’m sure, but here it is anyway. The Seahawks have it going on right now and are STILL a playoff hopeful. Head Coach Pete Carroll has these guys believing in themselves. Except for a late meltdown against the Redskins, they would have won 4 games in a row. Now a punchless Rams team comes to town without their top two QB’s healthy, and a MASH unit offensive line and DE Chris Long out for the game. The Rams have scored less than 10 points 5 times this season. RB Marshawn Lynch is giving the Seahawks a consistent running game. Tavaris Jackson is finding ways at QB to get this offense the points they need. With all of the injuries to the Rams and the pure fact I HAVE THEM RATED AS A SUCH TEAM, I’M TAKING THE SEAHAWKS HERE TO COVER THE SPREAD FOR 3 STARS. ST. LOUIS HAS NO CHANCE.