Bonus

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SATURDAY GAMES

SAN FRANCISCO (13-3) +3.5 OVER NEW ORLEANS (14-3)(47.5) – Right now I think that the Saints are the best team in the NFL. I really do. The Packers have some terrible things going on with their team right now when it comes to being able to continue to play playoff football effectively, in my opinion. First of all, they rested Aaron Rodgers the last regular season game at home against the Detroit Lions, along with several starters but won the game anyway with one hell of a performance by the team and backup QB Matt Flynn. They had a bye the following week, so this week is the first real practice and action that Rodgers has had in some time. A horrible thing happened this week when Packers offensive coordinator Joe Philbin losing his son to a bizarre death when his body was found in the Oshkosh River, having fallen through the ice. He has taken a leave of absence which will affect the Packers for sure. I’m sure that they’ll circle the wagons and play hard for Jerry and his family, but it has to be a distraction, and a very sad one also. Both teams will be ready for this game. The 49ers are getting points at home where they were 7-1 this season.
I picked the Packers early this season to win the Super Bowl again but last week I said I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see the Saints win the NFC title. The 49ers have had a remarkable season. Alex Smith, after almost being run out of town the past several years since he was drafted by Mike Nolan with the first pick overall in the draft, has put things together with the help of head coach Jim Harbaugh and had a phenomenal year so far. Smith has had 7 different coordinators in 7 years. The 49ers are a run team first with Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter, and Smith hasn’t thrown for over 300 yards in any game so far this year. However, his QB rating is over 90 and he’s only thrown 5 picks all year long. WR Michael Crabtree and TE Vernon Davis are by far his favorite receivers. Their offense holds the ball 32 minutes per game and their defense has some of the best numbers in the NFL. They are very aggressive and have only given up 3 rushing TD’s the entire year and those were in the last 2 games. The only game the 49ers lost all season long at home was the second game of the season against the Cowboys in overtime. Two weeks later trailing 23-7 late in the game, they came back led by Alex Smith and beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Philly. They won 9 out of their last 11 games, winning all 6 of their home games.
Both defenses are well coached but the 49ers defense is special. They have better playmakers and a much better overall defense than do the Saints. Almost 90% of the country right now is on the Saints minus the points here on the road. They have covered 9 games in a row (thank Goodness) It wouldn’t surprise me if the 49ers won this game but in order to do so, they’re going to have to get big time pressure on Drew Brees and make him make some mistakes. The Saints have the best offense in the history of the NFL this year and to think that they’ll be easy to beat is absurd. However, the 49ers have something to prove this year and all of the Saints losses have come on the road this season and they admit they’re not as good on grass. Two of their early road losses have been against Tampa Bay and St. Louis, two of the worst teams in the league. Since losing to the Rams, they’ve won 9 games in a row. You would think that sooner or later they’ll get beat, but will it be this year? That is the question? I MIGHT BE CRAZY BUT I’M TAKING THE 49ERS AT HOME TO COVER THE SPREAD HERE FOR 4 STARS.
NEW ENGLAND (13-3) -13.5 OVER DENVER (9-8)(50.5) – Last time these two hooked up a month ago, Denver rushed for 167 yards in the first quarter and lead 16-7 at one point. After turning the ball over three times, the game was pretty much over. If the Broncos can control the ball running the ball effectively and protect Tebow in the pocket, they have a chance, even in Foxboro. Heck, the G-men beat the Pats there earlier this season. Let us not forget that the Patriots have an AVERAGE defense, just a GREAT defensive coach. I would say the Pats will come out smoking the ball with their crossing patterns and using their tight ends Gronkowski and Hernandez. Rob Gronkowski is 22 years old and only in his 2nd season in the NFL. He set an NFL record for receiving yards for a tight end this season. Wes Welker will keep the safeties busy from all kinds of starting positions and broke a franchise record with 1,569 yards on 122 catches. Unbelievable stats for a guy who had knee surgery just over a year ago. Denver, on the other hand, has shown that they CAN throw the football but they’re still learning how and to who. One of their best receivers Eric Decker is out for the game. Tebow’s new favorite target has become Demaryius Thomas out of Georgia Tech. He and Tebow were both drafted in the first round two years ago by Josh McDaniel, who just joined the Patriot coaching staff this past week. Hmmmm. Anyway, Tebow will try to keep up with Brady on the scoreboard, but many don’t think that’s possible. First one to 35 wins! I don’t think that Tebow and the Broncos will be able to defeat the Pats, even though it is possible. However, the 14 points is just too inviting for me to pass up. TAKE THE POINTS AND THE BRONCOS.

SUNDAY GAMES

BALTIMORE (12-4) -7.5 OVER HOUSTON (11-6)(36) – The Ravens are undefeated at home this year including an early season 29-14 victory in Baltimore. The crowd and the team seem to play much better at home. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco definitely plays better at home. They lost away to Tennessee, Jacksonville, Seattle, and San Diego, teams with a combined record of 28-36. But as long as they play at M&T, they’ll be very competitive. The strength of both teams is in their defense. Last week against a flat Cincinnati team, the Texans put it all together with a great running game featuring Arian Foster and a short passing game using backup rookie QB T.J. Yates. No turnovers was the key for Houston. The Bengals QB Andy Dalton threw 3 interceptions which was the difference in the game. Against Baltimore, it will be quite a bit harder for the Texans to dominate the line of scrimmage and the scoreboard. Just as important as Arian Foster is to the Texans, Ray Rice is to the Ravens. Rice may be the best all purpose running back in the league. When Ravens OC Cam Cameron does not get Rice the ball at least 20 times a game, they struggle. Expect him to get the ball this weekend. Houston is a good football team, but they’ve been hit or miss especially towards the end of the season. There’s a reason that the Ravens are undefeated at home. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUST THE POINTS TO STAY UNDEFEATED AT HOME AND COVER THE SPREAD. 4 STARS HERE.

NEW YORK GIANTS (10-7) +8 AT GREEN BAY (15-1)(52) – This is probably going to be one of the most exciting games to watch on the weekend. It features two of the best quarterbacks in football and several of the best receivers in the game. The Giants have shown the past three weeks that they have worked out their problems this year in being able to run the football and now Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw are running on a full tank. That has opened up the passing lanes for Eli Manning who is absolutely proving this year he is one of the elite QB’s in the game. Many of the Packers’ starters haven’t played the past three weeks and with the sudden death of the son of Green Bay offensive coordinator Joe Philbin, it’s been a tough time for the Packers family. Add to that, the movement of Director of Pro Personnel Reggie McKenzie who got the GM job in Oakland and you can see there are plenty of distractions in Green Bay. The Giants have been working hard trying to keep their starters healthy. The Giants defense has improved immensely the past several weeks since getting blown out in New Orleans a few weeks back. The return of LB Michael Boley has made all the difference. Last week the Atlanta Falcons offense didn’t put up one point on the scoreboard against the Giants. The Packers, on the other hand, have been playing great all year long. Their defense actually gave up more yardage on defense than they collected on offense, but Aaron Rodgers has had an MVP season. Their running game has been up and down as has been the health of both of their running backs. You have to wonder when the Giants great play is going to stop. They were up and down all season long. The Packers were more than consistent, going 15-1 with their only loss in Kansas City. It’s tough to beat the Packers in Lambeau, especially when so much is on the line, but I’M GOING TO TAKE THE GIANTS PLUS THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS ANYWAY. No QB in the NFL is playing any better than Eli Manning and I think they have something to prove this weekend. Tom Coughlin and his players have it going on right now.