HOUSTON -12.5 OVER MIAMI (42.5) – Well, I’ve picked Houston to be in the Super Bowl in the AFC and in order to do that, they’re gonna have to play well starting in Week 1 against the Dolphins. I have the Dolphin ranked last in the league, only because I felt bad jumping on Cleveland with everyone else. Houston returns maybe the most efficient offense in the AFC, definitely the most balanced and their weapons are excellent. They have two excellent RB’s in Ben Tate and Arian Foster. Arian Foster may not play, but that shouldn’t slow down the Texans. QB Matt Schaub is one of the best in the league and has played with these guys on offense long enough to have great chemistry. Many consider WR Andre Johnson the best in the league. I look for Houston to jump on top of the Miami defense early and Wade Phillips and his Houston defense will make rookie QB Ryan Tannehill extremely uncomfortable in their base and blitz defenses. Look for a score of 34-14 in this one. Houston, barring injuries, will be around for the duration this season. I’M PLAYING HOUSTON STRAIGHT UP FOR 4 STARS IN THIS CONTEST!
JETS -2.5 OVER BUFFALO (39) – Personally, I’d like nothing better than to see the Jets continue to struggle against other teams scoring, this is a hard game to call only because Buffalo, IMO, hasn’t improved as much as they thought they had. Last season the Bills started out like gangbusters with Fitzpatrick and Fred Jackson lighting up teams with their passing and running. After the Redskins game, when Fitz got drilled in the gut by London Fletcher on a blitz, they just seemed to lose their spunk, and Fred Jackson went down with a season-ending injury to make a great year become a mess. Now they’re back, and with the addition of one of the best defensive linemen in football, Mario Williams, and teammates Marcell Dareus and Kyle Williams, they should be better, but they’ll have to score against a very good Jets defense to do so. How the Jets’ OC Tony Sparano handles the Jets offense between the 20’s and in the red zone will determine who wins this game. I don’t see a lot of points being scored in this one. I’M TAKING THE UNDER 39 POINTS FOR 3 STARS IN THIS ONE..
NEW ENGLAND -5 AT TENNESSEE (47) – The Titans quietly went 9-7 barely missing the playoffs last year and Jake Locker has won the QB job from Matt Hasselbeck so he must be improving. Locker has skills that Hasselbeck does not but Hasselbeck has experience that Locker doesn’t have. RB Chris Johnson is back after a disappointing year last season but keeping the ball from Brady and the Pats receivers will be key. Brady has as good a starting lineup for throwing the ball as there is in the NFL. Though they don’t have much of a running game, they can and will mix it up. Tennessee is concerned with making sure that after the Pats receivers catch the ball, they don’t advance it as much as usual. Normally, I’d take Tennessee in a game like this, but I’m not convinced the Titans defensive backfield will have an answer for Brady’s Bunch. I’m gonna PASS ON THIS GAME.
CHICAGO -9 ½ OVER INDY (43 ½) – The straight up number is too good, even though I haven’t really seen much in Chicago to tell me the Bears are ready for the season to start. Sure, Cutler can throw and Brandon Marshall can catch and Forte can run, but I sure didn’t see it in the preseason! Saw the Bears play the Redskins AND the Giants and wasn’t impressed at all. Indy is being led by number one pick Andrew Luck and Luck DID show me something in the preseason. Indy DID show me something in the preseason. I’m going to figure that even the Midway Bullies are gonna have some trouble with Mr. Luck and his receiving corps come Sunday. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER HERE FOR 4 STARS. LOVE IT.
PHILLY -8 ½ AT CLEVELAND (43) – The key to Philly’s success this season is all about Michael Vick. How many games will Vick miss? How many will he start? Will he actually finish a season? These are all questions that make me wonder why they’re paying this guy 100 million dollars. LeSean McCoy is a stud RB. He will make a difference but got little work in the preseason. Their defense led by DC Juan Castillo continues to improve. They had 20 sacks in the preseason, but that was the preseason. What will they do this week? They go up against a team that is ranked 31st in my Power Rating. Only because I refused to put them 32nd. I guess that Mike Holmgren still needs the money because I heard him on a radio show last week snuggling up to guys that DESTROYED him during the season last year. 28 year old rookie QB Brandon Weeden is an able bodied guy, but during the preseason he was LOST! I don’t think the Eagles defense on opening day is gonna cut him any slack. I look for the Eagles to kick the shit out of the Browns in front of their home crowd, new owner, and anyone else that doesn’t have anything better to do this Sunday. TAKE THE EAGLES ON THE ROAD TO COVER THIS SPREAD FOR 3 STARS.
MINNESOTA -3 ½ OVER JACKSONVILLE (39 ½ ) – Viking’s QB Christian Ponder starts his second season with the Vikings. He really can’t count on Adrian Peterson being there for him anytime soon, but they are saying he may start on Sunday, off of knee surgery less than a year ago. Personally, I don’t see it. The Vikings defense has many question marks. There is a reason they are just 3 ½ point favorites at home against a weak Jacksonville team. Jacksonville is also a team looking for their identity. MJD didn’t sign till about a week ago and is only going to be available for 3rd down plays. Second year QB Blaine Gabbert had a good preseason. He threw no interceptions playing against the first team defenses. The Jags have a good defense, probably good enough to shut down the Minnesota offense if they can just get some scoring and keep their offense on the field. Normally, I’d take the Jags here against such a weak Minnesota team, but the Vikings made some offensive progress without Peterson in the Preseason so I’m PASSING ON THIS GAME. TOO TOUGH TO CALL.
DETROIT -7 OVER ST. LOUIS (45½ ) – I really hate betting against Jeff Fisher anytime he’s an underdog, let along 7 points. However, he’s got his hands full in St. Louis. There is no doubt in 2 years this will be a very good team, but right now they have too much work to do to walk into Ford Field and beat a good Detroit Lions team that can score points in bunches. In Sam Bradford, Fisher has a competent young QB that understands how to move the football. Bradford last year was playing with a 2nd and 3rd string lineup of WR’s so you really can’t use any of his numbers effectively from last year in breaking this game down. Bradford had an incredibly preseason and Steven Jackson looks re-energized and ready to rumble. I would normally pass on this game completely, but because the Lions have some kids missing in their defensive backfield, I kind of like St. Louis scoring some points here. If Detroit is going to win this game on Sunday, they’re gonna need to get the ball in the hands of their big playmaker Calvin Johnson. Megatron IS the definition of their offense and with a decent running game, they can make it a long day for the St. Louis defense. HOWEVER, Fisher will have his Rams ready and like I said, this could be a good game. TAKE THE OVER 45½ POINTS FOR 3 STARS.
ATLANTA -3 AT KANSAS CITY (42) – There is no doubt in my mind that Coach Smith and the Falcons players are ready to play this season. It’s time to get to work and put up or shut up! The last couple of years have been disappointing in the postseason for the Falcons. They have an excellent young QB in Matt Ryan. His numbers speak for themselves. He is 43-19 as a starter. He has GREAT receivers in Roddy White, Julio Jones, and HOF TE Tony Gonzalez. Michael Turner, even though he turned 30 this offseason, is a tough, physical, RB and is tough dealing with coming out from behind those big OLinemen. Their defense, however, I can best describe as AVERAGE. Seriously, I think their defense is their biggest problem. Last season they were 29th in 3rd down efficiency. That’s not good enough. Kansas City has improved. No doubt about it. Matt Cassel had a decent preseason and Romeo Crenell was happy with the changes they’ve made in the offseason. They get Jamaal Charles back and Peyton Hillis adds a dimension to their attack most people never see. They get playmaker S Eric Berry back from a knee injury and that should help immediately on defense. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER FOR 3 STARS HERE BECAUSE I JUST DON’T THINK EITHER DEFENSE CAN STOP THE OTHER OFFENSE.
GREEN BAY -4 ½ OVER SAN FRANCISCO (46) – IMO this could very well be the NFC Championship game this winter. Green Bay, all but one week, dominated in the league all season long. Mike McCarthy and Jim Harbaugh may be the two BEST COACHES in the NFL. It looks like Randy Moss has made the 49ers as their 3rd receiver. Alex Smith will continue to get better for the 49ers. The 49ers lost Brandon Jacobs to an injury early in training camp, but he’ll get better, although he’s not playing this week. The 49ers have the best kicker in the league in the league in David Akers. The Packers success starts with All Pro QB Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers should be fine even though he seemed to struggle with his receivers AND offensive line during the preseason. He was sacked 7 times and only completed 21 passes in the preseason. The Packers defense is aging and has had some changes. All Pro Charles Woodson has moved to safety and should do well there. However, the Packers had HORRENDOUS injuries during training camp and preseason which will test the depth of their roster. Outstanding LB Desmond Bishop is lost for the season with a hamstring tear. The OL is also banged up. To say the Packers had an under par preseason would be an underestimate. Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if the best defense in the NFC (San Francisco) came into Lambeau and kicked a little ass on Sunday. I’M TAKING THE POINTS AND THE SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS HERE.
CAROLINA -1 AT TAMPA BAY (47) – The Bucs have a new coach. Greg Schiano, from Rutgers, is a disciplinarian. How his camp went had mixed reviews, but personally, I think he’ll be a good match for a team with some talent and no direction. Last season this team quit on their coach who is now a defensive backfield coach for the Redskins. Starting QB Josh Freeman struggled with a new offense during the preseason. There’s no doubt in my mind that Cam Newton will one day be a Hall of Famer. He scored more touchdowns passing and throwing last season than nine team totals. With his size and athleticism Newton presents problems for DC’s that nobody can imagine till they have to play the Panthers. If the Panthers defense can continue to improve, they will possibly win 8 games this season, maybe more. Steve Smith is back for yet another year at WR for Newton. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME JUST BECAUSE IT REALLY IS A TOSS-UP. HOWEVER, I WOULDN’T BE A BIT SURPRISED TO SEE THE PANTHERS WIN THIS GAME. IF THEY HAVE ANY ASPIRATIONS OF THE POST-SEASON, THEY NEED THIS GAME.
SEATTLE -3 AT ARIZONA (41) – Pete Carroll is a winner. Always has been. This season, Coach Carroll will try to take his good, young team to the next level, the playoffs. Not only did rookie QB Russell Wilson make the team, he is the STARTING QB for Carroll’s offense. His numbers in the preseason were staggering for a rookie. I don’t know any of his receivers nor can I pronounce most of their names. However, with Russell’s faith in God and the talent God gave him, I have no doubt that if Carroll’s defense can continue to improve and pressure opposing QB’s into mistakes (This year it’s Fordham’s own John Skelton) they will make it to the playoffs. Marshawn Lynch gives Wilson a GREAT running back that can do some many things out of the backfield. The Cards on the other hand, besides having wasted all that money on Kevin Kolb, lost their best offensive lineman for the season early in camp. They are starting a OT Bobbie Massie, from Ole Miss, a guy that nobody wanted pretty much. They signed him after he was cut. I really don’t see them keeping the Seahawks from pressuring Skelton. Skelton does have one of the best receivers in the league in Larry Fitzgerald. He also has RBs Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams to help set up the pass. It should be a great game. It’s a tossup and I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see rookie Russell Wilson bring home an away victory for the Seahawks, but I’M GONNA PASS ON THIS GAME.
DENVER -1 OVER PITTSBURGH (44½) – This game is already being touted as the BIGGEST TV AUDIENCE in the history of the NFL just because of Peyton Manning coming back from his injury. Manning looked fine to me in the preseason although he struggled a bit with his new teammates getting used to him. He has enough receivers to be dangerous. 30+ year old Willis McGahee is his starting RB in the backfield. The Broncos start off the season playing the Steelers, Falcons, and Texans, three playoff team. Peyton must be ready for a slow start and be careful not to try to do too much too early. However, there’s no doubt in my mind after seeing what Tim Tebow did for the Broncos in the 2nd half of last season, that they’ll follow Peyton and give him the support he needs. The Steelers have their own problems, but they did get Pro Bowler Mike Wallace signed and he might see some action this weekend. Heath Miller has always been a stud at TE. But they lost starting RG David DeCastro to a season-ending injury and Rashard Mendenhall is out till November. Two of the Steelers top defenders, LB James Harrison and FS Ryan Clark, are both out for Sunday’s game. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE ORANGE CRUSH CROWD AND PEYTON MANNING WINNING A GAME THAT THEY FIGURE THEY’RE GONNA NEED FOR SURE AND GIVE THE ONE POINT FOR 4 STARS.
MONDAY NIGHT GAMES
BALTIMORE -6 OVER CINCINNATI (41) – Former Cleveland and Baltimore Owner Art Modell died this past week in Baltimore. There will be a lot of energy on the Baltimore sidelines created by his death and by Ray Lewis who will not let his guys forget Modell and what he did for the city. Trust me. This game is going to be a ROUT. I’m taking the Ravens (who CRUSHED the Steelers opening day last season) to put a licking on former DC of the Ravens Marvin Lewis and his Cincinnati Bengals. Flacco, his receivers, Ray Rice, a decent Oline and Ray Lewis and his defense, will beat the very average Bengals by a score of something like 38-10. TAKE THE RAVENS FOR THE HOUSE….5 STARS OR MORE.
SAN DIEGO -1 AT OAKLAND (46) – How Norv Turner still has a job is completely beyond me, but hey, I don’t own the Chargers so it really doesn’t matter what I think. HOWEVER, with a depleted offense because of injuries and an average defense, I’m gonna have to say that the Raiders, with their new HC and GM, have a shot and will come out wheeling and dealing in their HOME OPENER in the BLACK HOLE they call a football field. It’s put up or shut up time for Carson Palmer, the guy that Hue Jackson mortgaged the future picks of the Raiders on last season. Palmer struggled during the preseason, but he, the preseason doesn’t matter…right??? RB Darren McFadden MUST stay healthy this season. Heyward-Bey continues to get better. Ther run defense looked much better during the preseason and it should be better. If San Diego QB Phillip Rivers struggles at all during this game finding his receivers, it could be a very long day for the Raiders. I’M GONNA PASS ON THE GAME AND ROOT FOR THE RAIDERS.