Join our Pickem League!

Maybe even get some bragging rights to call in to the show with…

Pro Football Pick-Em – Picking against the spread

http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/pickem/

GROUP ID# 17828
Password – football12

NFL WEEK 3 MATCHUPS

ST. LOUIS +7 AT CHICAGO (43) – The Rams showed me something last week against the Redskins. Not only can they move the football a little bit this season, but their defense looks much more aggressive and into the game than in years past.  They picked up some vets that are helping.  The Rams go to Chicago, a team that is having some problems. All anyone could talk about in the past week in Chicago is what an asshole Jay Cutler is.  He wasn’t getting a lot of protection in their loss last week and he acted like the baby he is.  If I was an NFL QB I think I’d be nice to my O-Linemen!  They can just smile and let the cattle out of the corral anytime they want. Anyway, two teams going in opposite directions IMO.  Their best offensive weapon in Matt Forte is out for a while. Their offensive line is having problems. Cutler has happy feet. He holds the ball too long anyway. He tries throw the ball through the defense.  St. Louis is improving all the time. Jeff Fisher is a proven head coach with a lot of energy which kids love.  They won at home last week in a “chippie” (looked like a regular rough game to me) game with the Redskins and held on to win at the end.  Danny Amendola, granted it was against a lousy Redskins secondary, set an NFL record in the first half of the game.  They do have Steven Jackson who is a punishing running back.   I’M TAKING THE POINTS HERE AND THE RAMS for 3 STARS.  CHECK RIGHT BEFORE GAMETIME FOR MY FINAL PLAYS!! A lot depends on the injury report.

BUFFALO  -3 AT CLEVELAND (44) – If you ever want to know which game that CBS thinks is the WORST game to watch out of all of the NFL games on any given Sunday, just check and see where Spero Dedes and Steve Beurlein are working .  This week it’s the Bills traveling to Cleveland because the league has promised both teams that ONE of them will probably be guaranteed a win.  The good news is that two of the league’s best rookie RB’s are playing against each other in this game.  Trent Richardson was the third player drafted this past year.  He’ll start for the Browns.  C.J. Spiller, a second year guy from Clemson, will start for the Bills because Fred Jackson will be out for a while with an injury.  Neither of these teams is going anywhere anytime soon, but watching these two young men play will at least keep some of the people in their seats in Cleveland.  Spiller, although it’s just after two games, is averaging over 10 yards per carry. He’s the first running back since Jim Brown in 1963 to have averaged over 10 yards per carry for the first two games of the season.   Last week Richardson became the first rookie to run and catch a pass for a TD since 2005 in the same game.  Even though the Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn’t set the world on fire with his passing, the Bills OL hasn’t allowed a sack yet this season.  The Bills beat K.C. last week but the Chiefs pretty much suck.  The Browns have played two pretty good teams in Philly and Cincinnati.  Rookie QB Brandon Weeden had a very good outing last week in a losing cause.  If the Browns weren’t so beat up on the defensive side of the ball, I’d take them as a home dog here to win the game.  However, I’m afraid that Fitzpatrick and his offense have a little too much juice for the Browns here.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.

INDY -3 OVER JACKSONVILLE (43) – Jacksonville traveled opening day to Minnesota and lost in overtime. Their offense didn’t look bad. Last week at home, Houston, the team I picked to win the AFC this season, embarrassed their offense and Blaine Gabbert who threw for only 53 yards.  MJD has run the ball effectively in two games but everything I see about the Jax offense screams they have to execute and are having big time problems doing so.  The Colts, on the other hand, are building gradually and effectively on both offense and defense.   Their offensive line is a work in progress but he’s athletic and smart enough to do what he has to do to run the offense.  Luck has targeted Reggie Wayne  with 1/3 of his passes even though he’s usually double-teamed.  Former Ram Donnie Avery has proven to be a good target for Luck also.  His college roommate, Coby Fleener has done a good job so far and will continue to improve.  Donald Brown gives them a decent running back to offset the passing attack of Luck.  This game is pretty much a toss-up but I’m going to probably play Indy if the injury list stays the same on Sunday as it is now.  Jaguar QB Blaine Gabbert isn’t very mobile and should get some pressure from the front 7 in Indy.  The crowd noise should give Gabbert problems also.  We’ll see what happens on Sunday.

JETS -2 AT MIAMI (41) – Jets OC Tony Sparano is going back to Miami where he coached for the past three years to take on first year HC Joe Philbin, his rookie QB Ryan Tannehill, and a defense that can be pretty tough.  The Dolphins can run the football.  Reggie Bush is having some success finding holes.  Last week they rushed for 259 yards against the Raiders.  With Brian Hartline being their most effective WR, the Dolphins are going to HAVE to have an effective running game.  Rex Ryan is going to put 8 and 9 in the box and challenge the Dolphins to throw the ball.  The Dolphin defense actually played Houston tough and last week only allowed the Raiders 23 yards on the ground.  I would think that the Jets may have a hard time running the ball too.  If Miami plays smart on offense and doesn’t turn the ball over, they might beat the Jets, who are 2 point favorites only because of the betting public.  The Jets are giving up 4.6 yards per carry so far this season.  I’m GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME ONLY BECAUSE IT’S TOO CLOSE TO CALL BUT I WOULDN’T BE A BIT SURPRISED IF THE DOLPHINS WIN HERE.

NEW ORLEANS -9 OVER KANSAS CITY (53) – It’s hard to believe that the Saints could end up 0-3 after this game after winning a Super Bowl a couple of years ago.  Drew Brees is playing without his head coach/mentor/partner Sean Payton and it’s giving him and the offense and the team some problems.   they can’t figure out how to stop the other teams they play from scoring, it’s not going to matter how effective Brees and the offense is.  However, so far this season, Brees  is struggling throwing the football.  RB Darren Sproles is his leading receiver s far this season.  TE Jimmy Graham is a big target that can create problems for defenses but so far this season, the offense hasn’t been able to score when they need to and their defense has struggled against the likes of Washington and Carolina.  Neither of those two teams are going anywhere this season.  The Chiefs so far have lost by 16 and 18 to Atlanta and Buffalo.  Last week for some reason,  RB Jamaal Charles only had 9 touches.  QB Matt Cassell has turned the ball over 5 times already the first two games.  He’s been sacked 8 times.  The Saints aren’t going to be able to get too much pressure without getting some linebackers involved.  The Chiefs do have some weapons.  TE Tony Moeaki, WR Dwayne Bowe will create some problems for the Saints secondary if Cassell has time to throw.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER IN THIS GAME FOR 5 STARS.  I CAN’T SEE THE WINNER GETTING LESS THAN 35 POINTS HERE.

DETROIT -3 ½ AT TENNESSEE (47.5) – Detroit traveled to San Francisco last week and played the best team in the NFL pretty well.  Their defense kept the 49ers offense out of the end zone for the most part.  Their defense, even with some holes in the secondary, played well and was very physical.  Tennessee to this point of the season has showed literally NOTHING.  They can’t run the ball and they can’t throw the ball on offense.  Opponents are averaging 37+ minutes holding on to the football, making it virtually impossible for the Titan defense to have any success.  Sure, they’ve played New England and San Diego, but even though both Brady and Rivers are future HOF QB’s, their teams are not all that tough.  Chris Johnson, who rushed for 2,000+ yards two years ago and signed a big deal before the start of last season, has 21 yards rushing on 19 carries.  His offensive line is pitiful if that’s the case.  Their defense has given up 310 yards rushing the first two games.  Detroit QB Matthew Stafford should have no problem tearing up the defense of the Titans here.  The Titans are giving up an average of 118.5 QB rating so far this season.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE LIONS HERE MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS.

REDSKINS -3 OVER CINCINNATI (50) – I think both teams are gonna be able to score on Sunday and score in bunches.  The Redskins defense, after losing 2 big members of their front 7 Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker.  The Redskins won’t be able to replace those two guys.  The Redskins secondary is like swiss cheese already.  Nobody can cover and nobody can tackle.  Andy Dalton struggled against the Ravens but had his way against the Cleveland defense last week.  RB Benjarvis Green-Ellis has played well for the Bengals running the football.   A.J. Green is a dominant receiver but hasn’t really broke loose so far this season because he’s been double teamed each week.  TE Jermaine Gresham is a decent receiver and former CFL WR Andrew Hawkins has caught 10 passes for 142 yards and a touchdown in two games.  On the Washington side of the football, Rookie QB Robert Griffin has a 111.6 QB rating in two games.  He has thrown 3 TD’s and only 1 pick so far.  His yards/attempt is 9.56 yards.  The Bengals defense has given up a ridiculously high 119.9 QB rating to this point of the season.  The Bengals DO NOT HAVE AN INTERCEPTION so far this year.  If the Redskins can run Albert Morris effectively, which they should be able to do because the Bengals give up 5.5 yards per carry, it should open up the passing lanes for Robert Griffin and the Redskins recievers.  I’ M GOING TO TAKE THE REDSKINS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS AND THE OVER 50 AFORE 4 STARS.

SAN FRANCISCO -7 AT MINNESOTA (43) – The 49ers have beaten two good teams so far this season, the Packers and the Lions, both from the NFC North which is where this week’s opponent plays also.  They play indoors at the Metrodome at 1 pm, which is like playing at 10 a.m. on the West Coast.  San Francisco, in my opinion, is the best team in the NFC, maybe the entire league right now. Alex Smith has thrown 216 passes without an interception.  Minnesota was outplayed at home their first game but won in overtime over a weak Jacksonville team.  Last week they lost in Indy to Andrew Luck and the Colts who won their first game of the season and in quite a long time.  Adrian Peterson has come back early from knee surgery and played the first two games of the season, rushing for a 4.4 yard average and 133 yards.  I can’t believe that Peterson is 100% but don’t look for him to sit out against the 49ers.  He’s a gamer.  However, I’ll say this.  If he does get 15-25 touches, he’s gonna get beat up and beat up badly.  Vikings QB Christian Ponder has done fine so far this season, completing 75% of his passes for 515 yards and no picks.  If Ponder can keep Alex Smith and the 49ers offense off the field, then the Vikings have a chance.  The Vikings who have one of the league’s best pass rushers in Jared Allen, have 4 sacks for the season.  Allen doesn’t have a sack yet.  Minny LB Erin Henderson is OUT for the game on Sunday, which will hurt the Vikings chances.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME BECAUSE THE NUMBER IS JUST TOO GOOD.

DALLAS -8 OVER TAMPA BAY (46) – This is an interesting matchup because it’s Dallas’ home opener after getting pushed around in Seattle last week against the Seahawks.  Dallas’ problem has always been consistency.  The Cowboys looked like world beaters against the World Champion Giants opening day in New York.  Then they travel out west and get embarrassed.  Tampa Bay’s new HC Greg Schiano has his guys believing in themselves.  They fired out during a Giants victory formation at the end of the game last week and gave no apologies.  They were playing hard. They had Eli Manning and his Giants frustrated and behind by 14 points late in the game before the Giants got it together and beat them last week.  The Bucs defense can play.  They held Cam Newton and his offense to 10 points the first week.  Their defense is only giving up an average of 2.7 yards per carry to opposing RB’s.  They have run the ball 58 times and only the ball 52 times.  They believe in a ball control offense.  On the defensive side of the ball, the Bucs have picked off 5 opponents passes already.  Dallas needs this game some kind of badly, but that doesn’t mean that it’s gonna happen. Romo and the Cowboys HAVE to be able to run the football.  I’m not sure if they can!  I’M GONNA PASS ON THIS GAME BUT IF I DID PLAY THE GAME, I’D TAKE THE BUCS TO UPSET THE COWBOYS AND DEFINITELY COVER THE SPREAD.

PHILADELPHIA -3 AT ARIZONA (46) – Arizona is better than a lot of people thought they would be, including me.  John Skelton was injured and Kevin Kolb has replaced him at QB and is doing a good job.  He is also facing his former team, who know a little bit about him, but he also knows a little bit about them.  The Cards are 9-2 in their past 11 games.  They might be the best kept secret in the NFL.  The Cards haven’t started a season 3-0 since 1974.  Beating New England last week at their place is no little accomplishment.  They’re going to have to control the ball and get something out of a running game that hasn’t logged much yardage yet.  Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams haven’t shown up yet but it’s not all their problem.  The Cards are starting rookie Bobby Massie at right tackle.  Their best OT is out for the season.  With an inexperienced LT D’Anthony Batiste on the other side, look for the Eagles to bring pressure from the corners to hurry Kolb.  For the Eagles WR Jeremy Macklin is OUT. DeSean Jackson has a sore hamstring and is one play away from being out.  I look for the Eagles to control the ball on the ground and stretch the field from time to time and keep the Cards off the field.  This is a game that really doesn’t match up well for Arizona.  The Cards defense is Darnell Docket on the line and Patrick Petersen in the D backfield.  The Cards can bring some pressure against an inexperienced and banged up Philly line. Philly has 9 turnovers in their first two games.   I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME EVEN THOUGH I THINK THE CARDS HAVE A SHOT. THERE IS A REASON THEY ARE 3 POINT UNDERDOGS AT HOME.

PITTSBURGH -3 ½ AT OAKLAND (45) – I can’t read too much into Oakland so far.  They have been disappointing and there are parts of their game they are definitely struggling with.  After losing their opener, the Steelers came back last week and looked solid against the Jets.  Troy Palaomulo and James Harrison are out this week.  The Steelers should have plenty of fans in the Black Hole this week and I look for the Steelers to win the game outright.  K Sebastian Janikowski has a sore groin so that could be a problem.  RB Darren McFadden has only 21 touches in two games running the football even though he’s caught 15 passes.  Pittsburgh needs this win to keep up with Baltimore who should handle the Pats on Sunday night.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME.

HOUSTON -1.5 AT DENVER (45.5) – Peyton Manning is coming off a shorter week of practice but he’s at home.  Houston travels again this time to the Mile High City.  Peyton Manning is going to run an up tempo no huddle attack to take advantage of the altitude changes for the Texans.  In Atlanta, Peyton had 3 picks in the first quarter of the game, but came back late to make a game of it.  Manning is about 70% of where he’s been before and where he might go.  I would imagine he’ll do better at home.  Willis McGahee has been solid but at his age, he might get tired early in the season. The Texans HAVE NEVER BEAT MANNING ON THE ROAD.  They have the number 1 defense in the league but they haven’t played anyone yet.  Matt Schaub and his offense are solid and can churn up yardage in bunches.  However,  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME EVEN THOUGH I FEEL THAT TEXAS IS THE BETTER TEAM.

BALTIMORE -2 ½ OVER NEW ENGLAND (50) – I don’t see a high scoring game here.  Both defenses might be their strongest teams.  The Pats crush a lousy Titan team the first game, only to come back last week and lose at home against a solid Arizona team.  One of his favorite targets, Aaron Hernandez, is out for a while.  Gronkowski gives him at matchup nobody in the league can handle, sometimes even with double teams.  RB Steven Ridley is averaging 5 yards a carry.  On the Baltimore side of the ball, Joe Flacco seems to be getting better every game.  They ran up a big score against the Bengals, then lost a close game last week in Philly, which they could have won easily.  They have to figure out a way to get Ray Rice the ball more.  Last week that was their problem.  TE Dennis Pitta is having a come out year so far.  Flacco has more receivers for a change than Brady.  This game is HUGE for the Ravens. First of all, it’s at home where they play better than on the road.  They MUST win this game or they’ll fall to 1-2.  I CAN’T SEE THEM DOING THAT. I LOOK FOR THE BALTIMORE DEFENSE TO GIVE BRADY FITS AND THE OFFENSE TO GET ENOUG POINTS TO WIN AND COVER THE SPREAD HERE.  TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

SAN DIEGO -3 OVER ATLANTA (49.5) – Don’t ask me why? But I’m leaning towards Norv Turner and the Chargers going to 3-0 this season with a home win here against the Falcons but I’m stepping out on a big ledge here doing that.  First of all, the Chargers haven’t beaten anyone yet.  Tennessee and Oakland both qualify right now as SUCK teams, which if you’re familiar with my logic, makes it virtually stupid to count anything done against these teams.  However, the Chargers are at home a second week in a row and Antonio Gates comes back from sore ribs to start today.  The Chargers would like nothing better than to get their third win in a row before they set off on a two game road trip.  The Chargers also get RB Ryan Matthews back from a broken collarbone this week.  THE FALCONS HAVE NEVER LOST IN SAN DIEGO, which makes it even tougher to take the Chargers here.  On the other side of that play, Phillip Rivers is 38-11 at home as a starter. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE I’VE TALKED MYSELF OUT OF IT WRITING THIS NOTE COLUMN. HAHAHA.

(MONDAY NIGHT) PACKERS -3 AT SEATTLE (45) – This game is going to be a GREAT football game on Monday night.  First of all, the Packers aren’t the Packers as we’ve known them so far this season.  After losing at home to an excellent 49ers team, they came back and beat up an old nemesis Jay Cutler and the Bears.  Now the Pack travel to Seattle to take on Pete Carroll and his rejuvenated Seahawk squad.  Last week the Seahawks destroyed the Dallas Cowboys, who usually have as many fans in away stadiums as they do at home.  Rookie QB Russell Wilson is solid, but he’s struggling to stretch the field with his receiving corps.  Last week against the Cowboys, Wilson finished with a 112 passer rating.  Look for this kid to just get better each week.  RB Marshawn Lynch and the offensive line have done a good job so far rushing for just under 150 yards per game.  The Packers rely on Aaron Rodgers and his passing game with a host of receivers that are all good, but none great.  I’M GOING TO JUST WATCH THIS GAME BUT IF I HAD TO TAKE ONE TEAM OR THE OTHER, I’D PROBABLY TAKE THE SEAHAWKS AT HOME JUST KNOWING HOW TOUGH THEY ARE THERE.