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Pro Football Pick-Em – Picking against the spread

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ATLANTA -7 OVER CAROLINA (47 ½) – The Falcons are for real coming off a 27-3 win at San Diego last weekend.  Matt Ryan is 27-6 at home and the Falcons have way too much offense for the Panthers defense to handle.  Personally, I don’t see just a 7 point spread here.  DC Mike Nolan is getting through to his defense this season.  This is a simple, classic, good vs. suck team with the good team at home.  I’m going to TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS HERE. Even if the Panthers come back hard here, they lose.

NEW ENGLAND -4 AT BUFFALO (50 ) – Last weekend, the Pats took the Ravens at their place to the max, losing barely on a field goal that barely stayed inside the crossbar.  However, the Ravens were playing their 4^th game in 18 days and they STILL won the game.  There’s a chance that Buffalo’s C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson might play Sunday. Personally, I doubt either of them does.  If they’re not ready to go, Tashard Choice will get the start.  The last time the Pats lost 3 games in a row was 2002.  It has been 145 games since the Pats were below .500 at anytime during a season.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST OF ALL, BUFFALO ISN’T THAT GOOD AND SECOND, THE PATS ARE COMING OFF TWO LOSSES.

MINNESOTA +4 AT DETROIT (48.5) – Two teams going different directions here. Minnesota is getting better. They have a quickly improving signal caller in Christian Ponder, who has a 104.9 QB rating just having led his Vikings to a win over maybe the best team in the NFC last weekend, the San Francisco 49ers.  There’s a good chance that Matt Stafford won’t play this weekend and if that’s the case, Shaun Hill gets the start and that could be a problem for the Lions.  Neither team stops the pass much and Percy Harvin of Minnesota leads the league with 27 receptions.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER IN THIS GAME FOR SURE FOR 4 STARS.

HOUSTON -12 OVER TENNESSEE (46) – Houston is 3-0 for the first time ever in their history. However, the 3 teams they’ve beaten have a combined record of 3-6 which doesn’t mean so much.  Tennessee is also 1-2 coming off their first win of the season a 44-41 OT win in Detroit.  Tennessee hasn’t been able to get their running game going at all.  Chris Johnson has rushed 33 times for a 1.4 yard average.  Ponder has thrown well, but their defensive backfield has allowed the highest QB rating in the league, 119 points.  I really don’t see any way the Titans can keep up with the Texans especially at their place.  The Titans have gone up against three good QB’s in Brady, Rivers, and Stafford. However, I’m gonna take the Texans here minus the points to dominate this game at home.  3 STARS on the TEXANS SUNDAY.

SAN DIEGO -1.5 AT KANSAS CITY (44.5) – Norv Turner’s Chargers wet the bed last weekend at home when the Atlanta Falcons came to town.  The Falcons, who are good for sure, have won 6 in a row in San Diego.  He Chiefs and Romeo Crennel lost at home to the Falcons also, but also went to Buffalo and lost to a weak Bill team, then won an OT game in New Orleans with a bunch of second half points.  The Chargers have lost two straight games in Kansas City.  The Chiefs will face their fourth good quarterback in four weeks this weekend.  Personally, I think this game is a tossup.

SAN FRANCISCO -4 AT JETS (43) – After starting the season with a 48-28 win over Buffalo, Mark Sanchez is 31 for 72  for 444 yards and two TD’s and two Intereptions.  Derell Revis is out for the season.  The 49ers have a better offense, defense, and special teams than the Jets who will be working hard to keep the 49ers offense off the field.  Frank Gore is averaging 5.9 yards per carry.  The Jets are struggling to run the ball effectively.  After losing last week in Minnesota, the 49ers practiced all week in Youngstown, Ohio to get used to the time zone difference.  Look for the 49ers to bounce back strong and completely dominate the Jets at their place on Sunday.  TAKE THE 49ERS MINUST THE 4 FOR 5 STARS.

SEATTLE PICK AT ST. LOUIS (43) – Seattle will always be remembered for the “catch” in the “replacement refs” final game. These two teams are both teams of the future. Both have good head coaches who are going to the Super Bowl one day. I picked St. Louis to be there in 2016 already. However, they both need some help.  Seattle’s offense is mosltly one dimensional with a great running game with Marshawn Lynch led by rookie Russell Wilson, who is decent already, but has a long way to go and is short some receivers anyway.  He Rams defense is adequate, but that’s it. They have some holes in it even though they’ve added some players who have helped.  I’m looking for a letdown on the road for the Seahawks going into St. Louis where they’re coming off a 23-6 loss in Chicago. Fisher will have them ready.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME HOWEVER.

ARIZONA -6 OVER MIAMI (41) – The Cards are 3-0 for the first time since 1974 when Jim Hart was QB and they were in St. Louis.  The Dolphins are hurting and coming off a tough overtime loss to the Jets at home.  They also lost the services of Reggie Bush with a knee injury.  Their passing offense is non-existent.  The Cards will not have RB Beanie Wells, but can do just fine with Ryan Fitzpatrick in his place.  The Cards defense may be the best in the league and should have fun putting pressure on rookie QB Ryan Tannehill in the desert. TAKE THE CARDS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS TO GO 4-0.

CINCINNATI PICK AT JACKSONVILLE (46.5) –  Neither of these teams looks very good to be honest with you. Jacksonville, with a new owner and a second year QB is improving and this game will say a lot about how far they’ve come this season.  Losing IN Indy last season wasn’t a good sign at all, since the Colts aren’t considered a very good team, however, they will have a shot at the Benglas at home.  The Bengals, in my opinion, have one of the worst defenses in the league.  They also have the WORST run defense in the league.  Look for a bunch of MJD against this defense and that should open up the short and intermediate passing lanes for Blaine Gabbert who has yet to throw an interception this season. I LOVE THE JAGS TO COME BACK HERE AND BEAT THE BENGALS AT HOME AND COVER THE POINTSPREAD.

DENVER -7 OVER OAKLAND (48.5) – It’s hard not to like the Broncos here at home, coming off two possible Super Bowl teams in Atlanta and Houston but the have won 4 games in a row in Denver so you can’t just rule them out.  Peyton Manning has an incredibly tough schedule to start the season having already played Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Houston, then after this week’s game against Oakland, the travel to New England and San Diego. The Raiders have some momentum coming off an emotional win at home against the Steelers last week and I look for them to come in smoking this week.  However, they’ve got some problems. Starting WR Darius Heyward-Bey is out indefinitely after injuring his neck last week.  RB Darren McFadden will shoulder most of the load both receiving and running the ball out of the backfield.  The Broncos after losing their last two games to Atlanta and Houston are having a hard time moving the football early in games.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME. TOO TOUGH TO CALL.

GREEN BAY -7.5 OVER NEW ORLEANS (53) – Who would have ever though after 3 games that these two teams would have a combined record of 1-5? Not me! This past week the Packers were pretty much shut down by the Seattle Seahawks and lost an infamous game on Monday Night Football that helped put a stop to the “replacement refs”.  Aaron Rodgers has had some problems finding his favorite receivers the first three weeks and he’s been sacked 16 times in 5 games, 8 coming in the first half this past week against the Seahawks.  You can’t fix that completely in one week, but they’ll try.  The New Orleans Saints should provide what it is the Packers need. No defense.  The SAINTS have played 3 lousy teams and are still 0-3.  This is what happens when you don’t have a head coach.  The Saints give up 5 yards a carry on the ground and a 101 QB rating.  Look for the Packers to shut down the Saints early and score at will in this game in Lambeau. Check the weather but I LOVE the PACKERS here.  NFL GAME OF THE YEAR so far.

TAMPA BAY -2 OVER WASHINGTON (46.5) – Neither of these teams will make the playoffs but both are supposed to be moving in the same direction even though you’ll never convince me the Redskins are going to get any better with ownership and management where it is.  The Buc have a tough disciplinarian in charge which is what they want.  Former Buc HC Raheem Morris comes to visit as Redskins DB coach.  The Redskins’ DB’s are the worst in the league probably.  Add to that they are injured and you have the mess called the Redskins defense. Add to that two of their best defensive players, Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker are out for the season and it’s even worse.  Tampa struggles to move the football.  They can’t pass because they won’t commit to the pass and they don’t have many weapons to begin with.  Look for the Bucs to pound Martin between the tackles and test the Redskins run defense to open up Josh Freeman’s passing lanes.  NEITHER OF THESE TEAMS ARE GOING ANYWHERE AND I DON’T TRUST EITHER TEAM ENOUGH TO PLAY THEM AGAINST EACH OTHER PASS.

PHILLY -2 OVER GIANTS (47.5) – It’s hard not to like the Giants a bunch here and I’m sure I’ll go with them as the visiting dog which is where they’re ALWAYS the best play, but it’s a game that the Giants limp into a bit and Philly needs a win even worse than the Giants do.  Ahmad Bradshaw is probable to play even though the Giants have a great backup in Andre Brown who is averaging 5.6 yards a carry and has scored 3 TD’s in Bradhsaw’s absence.  Eli Manning is Eli Manning and that means he isn’t going to lose this game for the Giants. He’ll have a positive effect on the Eagles defense.  Mike Vick has aturned the ball over 12 times in his first 3 games.  I’m not sure if facing the Giants defensive rush is going to make him feel any better.  The Eagles have one of the best pass defenses in the league but last week they were brought back to reality by non other than former Eagles QB Kevin Kolb in Arizona.  I’M GOING TO TAKE MY ROAD WARRIORS HERE TO COVER AND WIN FOR 4 STARS. GO G-MEN!!!..

DALLAS -3.5 OVER CHICAGO (41.5) – The UNDER is being pounded for some reason here.  The game will be indoors so weather won’t be a factor.  MAKE SURE YOU CALL ME AT 1-800-HOO-ISIT AND I’LL GIVE YOU MY MONDAY NIGHT MONDAY FROM 5PM – GAME TIME…FOR FREE!!!!