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Pro Football Pick-Em – Picking against the spread

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DENVER -4 AT CINCINATTI (48) – The Bengals seem to be getting worse and worse as the season plays on.  The Bengals face Peyton Manning who has a lifetime record of 7-0 vs. them.  They’ve lost three in a row and mix a bye week in there. Peyton is the first QB to throw for 3 TD’s and 300 yards four games in a row since Steve Young in 1998.  Bengals pass defense is giving up a 67% completion rate and that’s an AVERAGE. Now they face maybe the best QB in NFL history who is just getting warmed up with his new team. Manning has a 109 QB rating so far this season.  He has thrown 17 TD’s and only 4 picks and they were in the same game against Atlanta early in the season.   Denver in the past 11 games in the Eastern Time Zone is 1-10.  I don’t think that Manning will have much of a problem here in Cincinnati.  Denver is the better team here and even though Cincinnati needs the game more, I don’t see it happening here.  A.J. Green has caught 7 TD passes so far from Andy Dalton but he doesn’t have much more on his side of the ball.  Their last two home games the Bengals have lost to Miami and Pittsburgh.  After losing to Atlanta and Houston, the Broncos have beaten Oakland, San Diego, and New Orleans, losing in New England also.  I’M GOING TO PLAY THE OVER HERE BUT I LIKE THE BRONCOS A LITTLE BIT.  OVER FOR 4 STARS. DENVER FOR 3 STARS.

GREEN BAY OVER ARIZONA (44.5) – The Packers host the reeling Arizona Cardinals Sunday at Lambeau Field in what could be a blowout but I know better.  First of all, everyone was on the Pack yesterday when they got blocked a punt and scored to win by a non-cover of 24-15 against Jacksonville.  So if you think I’m gonna lay 10 against a much better team like Arizona, you’re wrong.  I’m pretty sure that my early thoughts about the Packers were correct. They’re not that good this season. They still have Aaron Rodgers but they have no running back or real running game as they’ve had in past seasons.  They’ve lost to San Francisco, Seattle, and Indy. INDY!  Normally, I’d love these guys in this spot against a team traveling cross country and struggling with 4 losses in a row, but they’re just not the dynamo they’ve been in recent years.  They should be able to put a lot of pressure on Cards QB John Skelton, who isn’t nearly as elusive in the pocket as injured Kevin Kolb.  Rookie RT Bobby Massie has struggled trying to deal with ANY pash rush and the Cards have given up a league high 39 sacks already.  I still am not convinced the Packers will score enough points to cover the spread here.  Arizona has a excellent defense, the most points they’ve given up is 24 twice this season.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.

MIAMI -2 AT INDY (43) – This game could go either way. I like both of these teams. Both of their arrows are pointing up!  Andrew Luck is on schedule to throw for over 4,000 yard this season.  The Dolphins are the better team here.  I have the Colts, even though they have 4 wins so far, rated an OK—team!  I have the Dolphins rated OK+!  The Dolphins defense is MUCH better here.  Except for a 30-10 season opener at Houston, the Dolphins have been in every game this season, having won their last three in a row and lost two games before that in overtime.  New HC Joe Philbin has to be pleased.  Donald Brown came back last week from a knee injury and rushed for 80 yards on 14 carries.  That allowed the Colts to take the Titans into overtime and win last week.  Defensively, the Colts aren’t even close.  The defense is giving up 4.8 yards per carry and a 103.4 QB rating.  This should allow a conservative Miami offense to have some success.  They scored 30 points at the Jets last week.  The Colts are undefeated at home however.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME EVEN THOUGH I LOVE THE DOLPHINS PLAY THIS SEASON.T

BALTIMORE -3.5 AT CLEVELAND (42) – The Ravens have beaten the Browns 9 games in a row.  They also have a 10 game winning streak against the AFC North.  However, the Ravens defense is just a shadow of previous years, being ranked 28^th in the league right now.  These two teams are not as much different right now as you might think.  The Ravens have struggled with their defense having given up 1,000 yards rushing already this season.  They’ve lost starting CB Ladarrius Webb and Ray Lewis for the season.  They barely held on to beat the Browns at home earlier this season.  After a rough start, the Browns have won two home games in a row against Cincy and San Diego.  Both teams trail in time of possession for the season averaging just over 26 minutes of offense per game.  Coming off an embarrassing 30 point loss to the Texans then their bye week, the Ravens probably got a little healthier but better have worked on how to stop the run.  If the Browns can run the football with rookie RB Trent Richardson, they can keep this close and possibly win the game.  Also, Ravens QB Joe Flacco continues to struggle on the road compared to at home….this game is on the road.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME THOUGH I THINK CLEVELAND MIGHT PULL OUT A WIN.

HOUSTON -10 OVER BUFFALO (48) – The Bills, normally much better at home than on the road, have won 2 games this season as road warriors.  They defeated Cleveland and Arizona two weeks ago.  However, this Texans offense will create some problems for the Bills that neither of those two teams could.  The Bills have the WORST run defense in the league.  They are also giving up a 93 point QB rating.  Texans QB Matt Schaub is having a good year averaging a 93 point QB rating of his own and Arian Foster even though he’s only averaged 3.9 yards per carry, has rushed for 659 yards and 9 TD’s.  The Texans should be able to exploit the Bills defense and score some points today.  The Bills are coming off of a devastating loss to Tennessee in the final minute just before their bye week. I remember. I had the Bills as my “straight cash homey” play of the day.  They Bills, however, have a pretty good offensive threat of their own in starting RB C.J. Spiller, who is averaging 7.3 yards per carry, the most by any NFL back since Jim Brown in 1970 with at least 70 carries.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS HERE FOR 4 STARS AND TAKE THE OVER ALSO FOR 3 STARS.

WASHINGTON -3 OVER CAROLINA (48) – Both teams are still searching for their identity as a team.  The Washington Redskins offense has been stellar at times this seasosn.  The Panthers not so much.  Robert Griffin has been maybe the most exciting thing to happen to the league in a while.  Cam Newton’s sophomore season, definitely slumping.  His attitude isn’t much better as he’s thrown members of his team under the bus regularly at press conferences.  Last week in Pittsburgh the Redskins receivers had a case of the drops as RG3’s receivers couldn’t find the handle repeatedly on throws they should have caught.  Last week D’Angelo Hall was ejected from a game for arguing with officials.  MLB London Fletcher has been struggling with injuries and may be playing his last season.  Both teams’ defenses have been struggling at times especially defending the pass.  I look for a hard fought, high scoring game here in D.C. on Sunday.  Both teams need a win on Sunday or they can start preparing for the draft next season.  The Redskins will need to stop what running game the Panthers bring out as quickly as possible to have a chance to win.  Cam Newton will not be successful running OR passing if the Skins can stop the run.  The Skins are a better team this season.  I LIKE THE REDSKINS HERE.  All Pro WR Steve Smith has NOT CAUGHT A TOUCHDOWN ALL YEAR LONG!!  TAKE THE REDSKINS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS.

DETROIT -5.5 OVER JACKSONVILLE (43) – The Jaguars have been outscored 95-20 and are 0-3 in their lst 3 home games this season.  They are arguably the worst team in the league this season.  Following their bye week, the Lions are 2-1 with two big wins against Philly (on the road) and Seattle last week at home.  The Lions must continue to win and improve to make the playoffs this season in the NFC North.  Lions S Louis Delmas is out for the game with a knee injury.  WR Calvin Johnson, or Megatron as he’s known to some, may only play on third downs today because of an injury.  #2 WR Nate Burleson is out for the season.  Last week Titus Young stepped up and had a monster game for the Lions.  RB Michael Leshoure has rushed for almost 400 yards in 4 games.  The Jags defense is OK but nothing spectacular. If the Lions lose here, their season is basically over.   I LIKE DETROIT HERE FOR 3 STARS.

CHICAGO -3.5 AT TENNESSEE (43.5) – The Titans are a much better football team at home so far this season.  Last week they lost to Indy at home in OT.  Two weeks before that they beat a decent Pittsburgh team 26-23.  Three weeks before that they beat the Lions in OT 44-41.  This week one of the toughest defenses comes to town.  RB Chris Johnson is back on track, averaging 4.5 yards per carry after starting the season horrifically.  Matt Hasselbeck has a higher QB rating than Jay Cutler.  The teams stats to this point don’t even compare however.  The Titans have a SUCK BHS rating.  The Bears a GOOD rating.  After losing to Green Bay in the second game of the season, the Bears have won 5 in a row, even though the last two games have been close.  Their last two games on the road vs. Dallas and Jacksonville were won by a combined score of 75-21.  This game is screaming TRAP but I might have to take the Bears anyway.  RB’s Matt Forte and Michael Bush have run the ball well.  Bears WR Brandon Marshall has caught 50 passes already this season.  He should have some fun against a not so good pass defense of Jacksonville.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE BEARS HERE MINUS THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS.

SEATTLE -4 OVER MINNESOTA (38.5) – I’ve loved this game for a couple of weeks.  Everything looks good for the Seahawks here.  They’re at home where they’re undefeated, having beaten Dallas, Green Bay, and New England.  Minnesota is probably not as good as any of those teams.  The Vikings are cooling off after a hot start, having lost to Tampa Bay by 19 points last weekend at home, their first home loss of the season.  However, Percy Harvin has 60 receptions so far this season. RB Adrian Peterson has 775 yards rushing so far this season.   The Vikings are having problems protecting QB Christian Ponder.  Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch has been as good as anyone this year running and controlling the ball for his offense.  He has 787 yards rushing and is averaging 4.8 yards per carry.  Rookie QB Russell Wilson is playing much better at home than he is on the road.  I HAVE TO GO WITH THE SEAHAWKS HERE MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS  (STRAIGHT CASH HOMEY)

OAKLAND -1.5 OVER TAMPA BAY (47) – After their bye week the Raiders are 2-1 with their only loss being a last minute lost to the undefeated Atlanta Falcons.  Earlier this season the Raider beat the Steelers.  The Bucs are coming off some games that showed they are improving also.  They have been in EVERY GAME so far this season.  I don’t see the Raiders scoring enough early to win easily.  This game will come down to the final quarter and the team making the least amount of mistakes will probably win the game.  The Raiders have won two in a row in the Black Hole.  The Bucs travel cross country for the first time this year.  The Bucs are the better team here but anything can happen.  With records of 3-4 both teams need this game in the worst way to stay competitive for the playoffs.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME. IT COULD VERY WELL COME DOWN TO THE LAST PLAY, EVEN THOUGH LIKE I SAID BEFORE, THE BUCS ARE THE BETTER TEAM RIGHT NOW.

GIANTS -3 OVER PITTSBURGH (44.5) – I’m sorry.  The Giants don’t get any respect at all.  The Steelers are NOT the Steelers of old, even though they seem to be righting their ship as we speak.  And nobody knows better than me that the Giants are ROAD WARRIORS and don’t play as well at home for some reason.  This is the point last season when the Giants went into a 4 game slide to go to 6-6 before their great Super Bowl Run.  The Steelers have lost in Denver, lost in Tennessee,  and lost in Oakland.  I almost can’t believe that this line is just 3 points.  I’M TAKING THE GIANTS MINUS THE 3 POINTS FOR 4 STARS. I CAN’T TAKE THE LACK OF RESPECT FOR THE 2012 SUPER BOWL CHAMPS ANYMORE.

ATLANTA -3.5 OVER DALLAS (47.5) – Here’s another ridiculous line. I HAVE THE COWBOYS RATED AN OK- TEAM AND THE FALCONS NUMBER ONE IN THE LEAGUE AND A GOOD TEAM.  I HAVE TO TAKE THE FALCONS JUST BECAUSE THE NUMBER ONE TEAM IN THE LEAGUE HERE GETS NO RESPECT.  Not only do the Falcons only give up 3 ½ points here, but the majority of the betting in VEGAS is ON THE COWBOYS.  Cowboys QB Tony Romo is a turnover machine.  Falcons QB Matt Ryan is 29-4 at home. End of story.  TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS.  It’s a perfect storm for the Falcons here.