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Pro Football Pick-Em – Picking against the spread

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Matchups

GREEN BAY -3 OVER DETROIT (52.5) –  The Packers have won 5 of their last 6 games and are chasing the division leading Chicago Bears who are 8-2 and just lost their starting QB this past week.  If they’re going to compete for the crown in their division, they’ll need a win here in Detroit.  4 of Detroit’s last 5 games have been on the road.  The Packers will line up on defense without two of their best players, S Charles Woodson and LB Clay Matthews on Sunday.  If the Lions are to have a chance this season to go to the playoffs, they’ll need a win here more than likely. Their schedule is brutal the rest of the way.  If you are ever going to go against the Packers in any situation, going against them when they lose their pressure on the opposing QB like tomorrow is the time to do it.  If Matthew Stafford has time to throw, this one could be very interesting.  Rodgers has a phenomenal record indoors and this one is indoors.  I’m going to play the OVER 52.5 here for 4 stars.  I don’t bet against Aaron Rodgers indoors.

CINCINNATI -3.5 at KANSAS CITY (43.5) – After losing 4 in a row the Bengals came back last week with a HUGE win at home against the New York Giants at home.  Andy Dalton threw for 4 scores last week.  The Chiefs are probably the worst team in the league.  Last week on Monday Night they played the Steelers tough but lost 16-13 in OT.  This game just stinks to look at.  I’m going to PASS on it.

ST. LOUIS – 3.5 OVER JETS (43.5) – THIS IS MY BHS PLAY OF THE WEEK! Jets are overrated even here as both teams are going different directions.  The Rams have beaten the Redskins, Cardinals, and the Seahawks at home so far this season.  The dome is comfortable for them and their new HC Jeff Fisher.  Last week coming off a bye, they TIED the 49ers who have a very good team.  Now they take on a  team that doesn’t seem to have a clue.  Their talent level is down and their QB play is atrocious.  The locker room is full of idiots sniping at one another and Tim Tebow.  They haven’t won a game in the past 7 weeks.  The Rams have a better starting QB (Sam Bradford), defense, and running game (Steven Jackson). Oh yeah, they have a better head coach in Jeff Fisher also. They got their best receiver back last week in Danny Amendola. Rams OC Brian Shottenheimer was the OC for the Jets for 5 seasons and was let go last year like it was his fault they sucked. It was the best thing that ever happened to him. Big time revenge here no matter what he says.   Add the fact that they are playing at home and I’M GOING TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS! STRAIGHT CASH HOMEY!!

WASHINGTON -3 OVER PHILLY (42.5) – The Redskins have lost 3 in a row. The Eagles have lost 5 in a row but have played a TOUGH schedule.  Michael Vick is out indefinitely with a concussion and has taken a big time beating so far this season.  Rookie Nick Foles will start at QB for the Eagles.  The Redskins have LOST 8 GAMES IN A ROW WHEN FACING A ROOKIE STARTING QB BELIEVE IT OR NOT!! Boy do they suck lately. The Redskins are coming off a bye week and when that has happened here in D.C. for Shanahan, he’s 0-2. The Eagles have won 5 of their last 6 games in Washington. Even though I was all over the Skins earlier in the week, the line moved 2 points to 3.5 and that’s not enough for me to trust the Skins horrible defense against a Philly team desperate to save Andy Reid’s job.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE JUST THINKING ABOUT THE WASHINGTON REDSKINS MAKES ME SICK TO MY STOMACH. You see….I’m a Redskins fan and that’s the hardest thing in the world to be the last 14 years.  Sell the team please Mr. Snyder….please?

TAMPA BAY -1.5 OVER CAROLINA (48) – The Bucs have won 4 out of their last 5 games and have scored more points this season than they have in the history of the club.  HC Greg Schiano has his offense scoring through the air with QB Josh Freeman, who has thrown for over 100 QB rating 5 games in a row, and on the ground with the running of rookie RB Doug Martin who has 862 yards, 7 TD’s, and a 5 yard per carry average.  Since beating New Orleans at home the second game of the season, the Panthers have only beaten Washington in their last 7 games. Speaking to their defense, the Panthers have played one hell of a schedule losing to Tampa Bay, the Giants, the Falcons, Seattle, Dallas, Chicago, and Denver.  Those teams have a combined record of 44-22 so far this season.  The Bucs losses come against teams with a combined record of 17-20. Personally, I’m not completely sold on Tampa Bay, but they sure have been able to do what they need to pile up some wins.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME JUST BECAUSE IT COULD GO EITHER WAY.  CAROLINA NEEDS THE GAME SOME KIND OF TERRIBLE.

ATLANTA -9.5 OVER ARIZONA (44) – After a 4-0 start the Cards have lost 5 in a row but they are coming off a bye week.  They are having a hard time running the football at all.  They have replaced their starting left tackle because they’ve given up a league leading 41 sacks so far.  Atlanta is coming off its first loss of the season in New Orleans.  Both teams face a tough closing schedule after this game.  Last week Atlanta RB Michael Turner was held to 15 yards on 13 carries and is questionable to play today.  Even though this game looks like a trap, I think that Atlanta holds serve here and dominates a beat up, struggling Arizona team at home. Julio Jones is questionable.  The Cards need the game much more than the Falcons do, but I’m going to play small move here of 3 STARS ON THE ATLANTA FALCONS.

DALLAS -9 OVER CLEVELAND (42) – With any luck at all, the Cowboys could be undefeated after their bye week this season.  Last week their defense and special teams helped out their offense and beat Philly 38-23.  Tony Romo didn’t have a turnover.  Romo has been horrible at home this season with a 60 QB rating so far in three games. He has thrown 2 TD’s and 10 picks there.  The Cowboys are just a game and a half behind the Giants who are reeling right now but on their bye week.   RB DeMarco Murray should be playing some this week after injuring his knee. Felix Jones has done a good job in his place.  Opponents have a 90 QB rating against the Cowboys this season.  Cleveland is a better team than their record suggests.  The Browns have been in EVERY game this season so far.  For the Cowboys at home to be favored by almost 10 points is a joke, in my opinion. The boys play much better on the road than they do at home.  Hopefully that will change sometime but so far, that’s the rule.   Oh yeah, the Browns are coming off a bye week also.  Cleveland 29 year old rookie RB Brandon Weeden has been struggling as of late.  RB Trent Richardson is doing a decent job running the football.  The Cowboys DB’s should take care of the Brown’ WR’s and win the game easily but until the Cowboys win consistently at home, I’m leaving them alone.  I ACTUALLY LIKE THE COWBOYS HERE BUT I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.

NEW ORLEANS -5 AT OAKLAND (55) – The Saints are maybe the hottest team in the NFL right now.  Drew Brees is in late season form and he has a RUNNING GAME to go along with his passing yards .  I’m recognizing more and more people on their sidelines each week which is a good thing.  RB Chris Ivory is looking unstoppable.  They get Darren Sproles back this week which will just make them tougher.  After starting 0-4 and looking horrible, in the last 5 games they’ve beaten San Diego, Tampa Bay, Philly, and undefeated Atlanta!  They are still giving up 5.1 yards per carry on defense but are improving there.  In the LAST TWO GAMES THE RAIDERS HAVE GIVEN UP 97 POINTS! It’s gonna be hard to keep up with Brees and the Saints offense playing like that.  This is as bad as it’s been for the Raiders defense since 1961.  Both teams pass the ball more than any other teams in the league.  I don’t see how the Raiders stay with the red hot Saints here, but if they do, they’ll have to score a ton of points.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER 55 POINTS HERE FOR 5 STARS.  Call me at 1-800-466-4748 between noon and 4 pm to see if I release the Saints here.  I’m hearing nothing but good things right now.  CHECK THE WEATHER!

DENVER -8 OVER SAN DIEGO (53.5) – The Broncos have won 5 of their last 6 games.  Peyton Manning just gets better and better. If anything happens to him, the Broncos are in trouble.  They have averaged over an 18 point winning spread in those 5 games.  They beat the Chargers a month ago in San Diego 35-24. On the other side of the ball, Phillip Rivers has been struggling at times.  He’s thrown for 15 TD’s but he has 12 picks.  The Broncos defense has played well and they have stopped the run well the entire season.  Even more impressive for the Broncos is their 31 sacks.  They’ve only given up 11 sacks all season long.  Peyton Manning has thrown 21 TD’s and has only 5 picks and 4 were in one game early in the season.  The Chargers after starting 3-1 have lost 4 of their last 5 games with their only win being against lowly Kansas City.  San Diego HC Norv Turner is on his last legs.  It’s just a matter of time before he’s relieved of his duties in San Diego.  With one more win Peyton Manning will tie Broncos GM John Elway for 2^nd place all time in victories by a starting NFL QB.   TE Antonio Gates needs one TD to catch Lance Alworth with the most TD’s by a receiver in San Diego history.  The Broncos are playing as well if not better than every team in the NFL right now. The Chargers not so much.  I’M GOING TO TAKE DENVER HERE for 3 stars and the OVER for 5 stars.

NEW ENGLAND -9.5 OVER INDY (54) – The Patriots have a turnover margin of +16.  The Colts turnover margin is -9.  That alone is the difference in the spread.  Now you add to that a Colts defense which is improving but not dominating against Tom Brady, at home with his set of receivers and you’ve got trouble for the Colts.  After losing to the Jets 6 weeks ago by a score of 35-9, the Colts have won 4 games in a row rallying behind their head coach who is battling cancer.  Now they travel to Foxboro where it is nearly impossible to beat the cheating Pats.  I can say that because I’ve read the book, but this game might not be so easy for the Patriots, even if they are playing at home.  The Colts are giving up a 96 QB rating to opposing QB’s.  Pats RB Steven Ridley already has 814 yards rushing and 6 TD’s.  On the other side of the ball, the Pats will have to double Reggie Wayne who has 69 catches and 3 TD’s this season.  I PREDICT A LOT OF DAMN POINTS HERE TODAY..  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER 54 FOR 5 STARS HERE. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Pats dominate and the surprising 6-3 Colts to take a breath and lose here.

BALTIMORE -3.5 AT PITTSBURGH (45.5) – Ben Roethlisberger is out for this game.  Byron Leftwich will start for the Steelers. It is his first start since 2009.  Without Ben Roethlisberger the Steelers are 0-4 against the Ravens.  The Steelers defense has played great as of recently.  The Steelers are tougher at home than they are on the road.  I look for a big dose of running the football from the Steelers no matter who is doing the running.  This game even with Ben out could go either way.  Ravens RB Ray Rice has started 35 consecutive games but he needs to get more touches.  The Ravens have struggled on the road no matter where they have played. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME EVEN THOUGH THE STEELERS NEED THE GAME DESPERATELY.