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Pro Football Pick-Em – Picking against the spread

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Matchups
SEATTLE -3 OVER MIAMI (38.5) – After winning three in a row, the Dolphins have struggled losing their last 3 games.  Seattle travels cross country to Miami for what  in reality is a 10 am game for them.  Rookie QB Russell Wilson has been solid for the Seahawks throwing for a 91 QB rating but has been much better at home than on the road.  The Seahawks have lost 4 out of 5 on the road.  In RB Marshawn Lynch they may have the best RB in the league.  Miami should continue to have problems scoring against this excellent Seattle defense.  Rookie QB Ryan Tannehill has struggled at QB for the Dolphins.  He’s thrown for a 71 QB rating and thrown for only 6 TD’s and 11 interceptions.  If he does that against the Seahawks, Miami will go down for their 7^th loss of the season.  Miami’s RB Reggie Bush if he plays should get plenty of touches.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.

ATLANTA -1 AT TAMPA BAY (50) – 7 of the last 8 games the Falcons have played has been decided by a touchdown or less, no matter WHO they are playing.  Falcons QB Matt Ryan is coming off of a 5 interception performance last weekend against the Cardinals but they WON!  I know. I released the Falcons as a big play last week.  The Bucs behind first year coach Greg Schiano have made huge strides this season.  Even though their defense is still a work in progress, they’ve won 5 of their last 6 games and have a 6-4 record.  Young Bucs QB Josh Freeman has been awesome, throwing for a 95 QB rating and 21 TD’s and only 7 picks.  Rookie RB Doug Martin has rushed for 1,000 yards already this season averaging 5.1 yards per carry.  In overtime last week against the Carolina Panthers, Martin carried the ball 5 times for 48 yards.  After last week, the Bucs were tied with the Saints for the league lead in points scored!   The Bucs on the defensive side of the ball will struggle against the Falcons when they throw the ball.  They are giving up 312 yards per game in the air.  The Bucs have scored 215 points over the last six weeks.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER HERE FOR 5 STARS!

TENNESSEE -4 AT JACKSONVILLE (44.5) – Talk about two lousy teams here…I think the only plus on both sheets when I rated these teams for handicapping purposes was a PLUS on the kicking game of Jacksonville kicker Josh Scobee, who is 18 for 19 in FG’s.  Because Jacksonville’s offense is so pitiful, Scobee has only attempted 11 extra points.  Two weeks ago after losing 51-20 to the Bears at home, Tennessee owner Bud Adams basically said EVERYONE might get fired if something didn’t improve. Can’t remember this ever happening before, but the next week the Titans went to Miami and DESTROYED the Dolphins 37-3.  They are coming off a bye week and the trip to Jacksonville isn’t a big deal so they are favored against the Jags this week.  Titans RB Chris Johnson is averaging 5.1 yards per carry this season after a slow start.  Jake Locker will be starting at QB for the Titans.  Last week in Houston the Jags almost won their second game of the season, only to fold up in OT by a score of 43-37 but was definitely the best game they played all season long especially on offense.  Backup QB Chad Henne played the entire game for the Jags and was stellar.  These two teams suck but you have to like the home dog here getting 4 points for some reason even though the Jags are 0-5 at home this year.  Call me a dumbass but I like the Jags here at home to win their first game of the year there.  Check the weather but I also like the OVER here for 3 stars.

INDY -3 OVER BUFFALO (51) – This is do or die time for the Bills with a loss making them 4-7 here.  Last week a punt return by Leodis McKelvin for a TD gave the Bills a 19-14 win at home against the Dolphins.  Defensively they’ve had a tough season but offensively they’ve moved the football especially with screen passes to their two RB’s C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson.  Jackson comes back from a concussion Sunday to probably get plenty of touches.  Both teams have been able to throw the football this season.  Rookie QB Andrew Luck had his toughest game of the season last week against New England.  The Pats put a lot of pressure on the rookie and forced several turnovers.  Defensively both teams are in trouble.  I’m going to play the OVER this week for 5 stars in this game.

DENVER -10.5 AT KANSAS CITY (43) – These two teams couldn’t be farther from each other talent wise.  Denver behind Peyton Manning has played very well all season long and are getting better by the week.  If K.C. doesn’t beat New Orleans early in the season in OT, they’re 0-10.  Brady Quinn gets the start at QB this week for Kansas City.  Isn’t it fitting that Romeo Crennel is forced to start Quinn after benching Cassel, who never really has learned to play the game after making it to the NFL after starting at QB under former New England OC Charlie Weis.  Quinn couldn’t even start in Cleveland.  The Chiefs, even though they have a RB who has averaged 4.8 yards per carry, Jamaal Charles, are the worst team in the league.  They have lost their five home games by a combined score of 140-72.  The Broncos have won 6 of their last 7 games and their last 3 road games.  Bronco starting RB Willis McGahee is out for the season.  Ronnie Hillman and Knowshom Moreno will be replacing him there.  If the pass rushers for the Chiefs can’t get any pressure up the middle on Manning, and there’s no reason to think they will, it’s gonna be a long game for the Chiefs.  On the other side of the ball, the Denver pass rush should have a fun time rushing Brady Quinn.  Even though it’s a double digit home dog, I’m gonna pass on the game completely. Denver in another win probably.

PITTSBURGH -1.5 AT CLEVELAND (34.5) –  To give you some kind of idea what is going on in Cleveland and Pittsburgh, all you have to do is look at the betting line here.  It’s basically a toss up.  Cleveland is 2-8.  The Steelers are 6-4.  It’s a division slugfest and either team can win this game.  Big Ben is out for at least another week and after Byron Leftwich got hurt last week and only was able to put up one score on the scoreboard, Charley Batch gets the start here for the Steelers.  Batch is 5-2 when he starts a game in the place of Ben.  The Steelers will keep it pretty vanilla and simple and probably run the ball quite a big behind their offensive line.  The Browns have played tough most of the season.  Even though offensively they’ve been a work in progress, their defense has kept them in almost all of their games.  Rookie RB Trent Richardson is the key to moving the football to the Browns.  If Richardson has success running the ball, then rookie QB Brandon Weeden will have more success throwing the ball.  Browns kicker Phil Dawson is 19-19 in FG’s.  Steelers K Shaun Suisham has only missed once and is 21-22.  This game will probably come down to a MADE field goal it looks like to me.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BUT WOULD LOVE TO SEE THE BROWNS GET THEIR FIRST WIN OF THE SEASON HERE.  TOO CLOSE TO CALL THOUGH.

CHICAGO -6 OVER MINNESOTA (38.5) – This is a tough call. I’m going to pass on the game for sure but let me throw out some quick thoughts.  Christian Ponder may be the best QB on the field on Sunday.  Adrian Peterson has 5 runs of 50 yards or more against the Bears.  WR Percy Harvin is OUT for the game.  The Bears OL looked HORRIBLE against the 49ers with their pass rush.  Cutler will be a game time decision even though he passed an independent neurologist’s test on Saturday for a concussion he received last week.  It looks pretty good that Jay will play.  The Bears are 14-5 WITH Cutler, 1-6 without him.  That might be all you need to know on Sunday. Check his status.  Jason Campbell is questionable with sore ribs but will probably start if Cutler isn’t ready.  Big test for Bears OL with Jared Allen rushing the passer for the Vikings.  PASS.

CINCINNATI -8.5 OVER OAKLAND (45) – This is my “Straight Cash Homey” Randy Moss play of the day. The Bengals have looked much better as of late especially on the defensive side of the ball.  Oakland looks like a team with no talent, no offense, and no defense.  They do have a great placekicker but I’m not sure that will mean much.  Carson Palmer returns to his old home in Cincy where he led the Bengals for years.  He was traded to Oakland last season for draft choices and the man that traded him, Hue Jackson, was fired and coaches in Cincy where the draft picks lay in waiting.  Last week the Bengals got 101 yards from the Law Firm, Benjarvus Green-Ellis, his first of the season.  Running the football has been a problem all year for the Bengals.  Bengals QB Andy Dalton has quietly had a good season.  He’s thrown for a 93 QB rating with 20 TD’s and 11 picks and has one of the premier WR’s in the league in A.J. Green.  Green has 10 TD’s and 64 receptions for 911 yards.  TE Jermaine Gresham is becoming a force as of late giving Dalton a reliable guy for 3^rd down.  Since losing to the Browns over a month ago, the Bengals have shown improvement and have won 2 in a row against the Giants and Chiefs by a total of 40 points.  This is a huge game for Cincinnati with a win putting them a game over .500 and in the playoff hunt.  Lose and the remainder of the schedule probably won’t allow them to make it.  Raiders’ RB’s McFadden and Goodson are both out. So is Richard Seymour on the defensive side of the ball.  The Raiders effort will be easy to calculate here.  If the game stays close, they’re playing hard. If not, Cincinnati could blow them out.  I like the OVER here also because I don’t see Palmer coming home and not putting up some big numbers even in defeat.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE BENGALS FOR 5 STARS AND THE OVER FOR 5 STARS ALSO. CHECK THE WEATHER FOR THE OVER.

BALTIMORE -1 AT SAN DIEGO (47) – Two teams that most picked for the playoffs when the season started but it only looks like like the Ravens will be there somewhere but probably not the Chargers.  If the Chargers lose this game convincingly, it wouldn’t surprise me to see A.J. Smith fire HC Norv Turner in one of the only moves Smith will be able to make this season before he’s fired either soon or at the end of the season.  Even though Ravens QB Joe Flacco doesn’t usually play as well on the road as he does at home (65 QB rating on road), he has won 3 of his last 4 road games.  Even though the Ravens lost a starting LB and CB their defense is only giving up a 76 QB rating, one of the highest in the league.  The offense and Cam Cameron seem to be “pacing” RB Ray Rice as he has only carried the ball 164 times for 697 yards.  He has caught 40 passes for another 337 yards.  WR Torrey Smith will challenge the weak San Diego secondary with his speed. Smith has 7 TD’s and has averaged 17.3 yards per reception.  The Chargers have lost 5 of their last 6 games.  Phillip Rivers has averaged almost 2 turnovers per game during this span.  Usually reliable TE Antonio Gates has only 30 catches for 355 yards and 4 TD’s so far.  WR Malcolm Floyd has only 4 TD’s so far.  RB Ryan Matthews has underachieved with only 522 yards and just one TD so far this season.  No defense and underachieving offense is not going to line up to too many wins in San Diego this season.  Personally, I think it’s a personnel problem but Norv hasn’t really won anywhere he’s been a HC.  Traveling cross country can’t be good for the Ravens here and with the Chargers needing the game so badly, I’m going to PASS on this game completely.  Ravens the better team, Chargers will an upset possibility and a game they need desperately.  PASS.

ARIZONA -1.5 OVER ST. LOUIS (43) – The Rams CRUSHED me in my pick last week.  I had no idea they’d come out and play so poorly especially on the defensive side of the ball.  They made Mark Sanchez look like Joe Montana.  I can’t believe that practice was fun for them this week.  HC Jeff Fisher probably got his defense to make some changes this past week.  WR Danny Amendola is OUT this week however so that isn’t going to help the Rams offense.  The LOSER of this game is probably done for the year.  The winner still has a chance, but a longshot.  The Cards have lost 6 consecutive games after starting the season 4-0.  I’m not sure ANYONE has ever done that before in the NFL.  Rookie QB Ryan Lindley makes his first NFL start after coming in last week and looking horrible.  HC Ken Whisenhunt must know something or maybe he just wants to see what this kid has.  What can it hurt?  He’s lost 6 in a row.  Zona RB Beanie Wells will start Sunday coming back from a knee injury.  This game is a GREAT spot for the Cardinals but can you play a rookie QB here?  I’m going to PASS on this game.  Neither of these teams have won a game since playing each other 7 weeks ago.  That’s pretty pitiful.  St. Louis has gone 5 CONSECUTIVE GAMES WITHOUT FORCING AN OPPONENT TURNOVER. THAT HASN’T HAPPENED SINCE 1950, BEFORE I WAS BORN!  Two good head coaches. Two teams that desperately need to win a game.  I’M GOING TO PASS ONTHIS GAME BUT ARIZONA IS PROBABLY IN A GREAT SPOT HERE.  I JUST DON’T TRUST THE ROOKIE QB IN HIS FIRST GAME.

SAN FRANCISCO -1 AT NEW ORLEANS (49) – This is going to be one of the best games of the day.  The 49ers, coming off an assault of the Bears this past week, go into the Superdome to play the red hot Drew Brees and the Saints offense.  The Saints defense has played better, but their defense is still giving up huge chunks of yardage on the ground.  Colin Kaepernick is probably going to start at QB for the 49ers.  He did a great job last week with Alex Smith sidelined with a concussion.  Even though the Saints were beaten by the 49ers last season in the playoffs, they have won 6 regular season games in a row.  Brees is 5-0 in the regular season with a 107 QB rating against the Niners.  I really like the OVER here.  Not many people give the Saints much of a chance to score over 30 here, but they’re going to have to light up the scoreboard to have a chance against a 49ers team that can run AND throw.  First team to 38 wins this game, IMHO.  Look for Saints TE Jimmy Graham to have a big game today.  It will be interesting to see how the Niners attack on offense.  If they come out throwing the ball, this could be a shootout.  If not, the OVER might be a dead issue.  TAKE THE OVER HERE FOR 5 STARS.  IF YOU PLAY THE GAME, TAKE THE BETTER TEAM, THE NINERS.

GIANTS -3 OVER GREEN BAY (48) – There are so many things to like about this game.  Hard to not pik the hot Green Bay Packers who have won  5 games in a row.  Hard to pick the Giants who have looked a bit dysfunctional especially on the offensive side of the ball.  Eli Manning has put up horrible numbers recently, having NOT thrown for a TD in his last 3 games.  I can’t remember that ever happening to Eli.  On the other side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers has been on fire.  This game is a rematch of the playoff game last season when the Giants upset Green Bay in Lambeau.  Payback is a given but these guys don’t think that way.  Whoever moves the ball both on the ground and in the air and whichever DEFENSE plays the best will probably win the game.  Neither team can afford turnovers.  The Giants are 25^th in the league against the pass.  The Giants do get 3 defensive players back from injury Sunday.  Kenny Phillips will make a big difference if he’s healthy.  The Packers have won 3 games in a row on the road but they were all indoors.  That is where Rodgers is at his best.  The Packers have FOUR CONSECUTIVE ROAD WINS VS. THE GIANTS.  The Giants ARE coming off a bye week which can’t hurt.  EVERYONE IN VEGAS IS ALL OVER THE PACKERS.  THE MONEY AND STRAIGHT LINE IS ENORMOUS.  SO IS THE OVER.  If I was a conspiracy theory bettor, which I am at times, I’d take the Giants and the UNDER.  It is cold.  It is outside.  Both defenses must play better.   I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS THOUGH.

MONDAY NIGHT GAME

CAROLINA -1 OVER PHILLY (48) – If this isn’t the WORST Monday Night game in the history of MNF, it’s in the worst 2 or 3 games.  GIVE ME A CALL ANYTIME MONDAY OR TEXT ME AT 1-800-466-4748 FOR MY MNF PLAY!!