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Pro Football Pick-Em – Picking against the spread

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Matchups
Yesterday morning, Kansas City Chiefs LB Jovan Belcher, a 4^th year linebacker from the University of Maine, shot and killed his 22 year old girlfriend Casandra Perkins, the mother of his 3 month old daughter.  According to reports, Chiefs HC Romeo Crennel and GM Scott Paoli were talking to Belcher outside the facility when the police drove up.  Belcher walked to his car where he put a gun to his head and pulled the trigger.

GREEN BAY -8 OVER MINNESOTA (46) – The last Minnesota win against Green Bay was in 2009 when Brad Childress was the head coach of the Vikings and Brett Favre was the QB. Without Percy Harvin, who is doubtful, I don’t see the Vikings being able to win this game but staying close will be all about keeping Aaron Rodgers off the field.  For that to happen, RB Adrian Peterson, who has 5 consecutive 100 yard games, will have to be very successful against the Green Bay defense running the football. Peterson is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and has scored 7 TD’s.  Minnesota TE Kyle Rudolph has had success moving the chains for the Vikings.  The Packers got hammered by the Giants in their last game on the road 38-10 but before that game had won 5 games in a row.  In the last 3 ½ games against Minnesota Rodgers has thrown for a 140.5 passer rating. This game could end up being a shootout.  Most of the money in Vegas is on the Vikings against the spread.  I see an opportunity here for the Packers and I’m going to take THE PACKERS TO COVER THE 8 POINT SPREAD.  DEPENDING ON THE WEATHER I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER 46 POINTS ALSO.  BOTH PLAYS ARE MODERATE, IN THE 3 POINT RANGE.

HOUSTON -6 ½ AT TENNESSEE (47) – This is a game I have no real feel for.  The Titans are 10-1 and have made every move needed for those 10 wins.  The offense is solid with 15 rushing TD’s and 19 passing TD’s from QB Matt Schaub.  Last week the Texans survived OT and a kick in the nuts from Detroit punk Ndamakung Suh.  The Texans have won their last 4 games by a total of 27 points, the last two in overtime.  Last week the Titans lost in Jacksonville to the Jaguars 24-19.  The problem of the Titans hasn’t been so much its offense but its defense which has given up 335 points in 11 games.  To keep up with the Texans, Titans QB Jake Locker is going to have to put points up on the scoreboard.  Houston should have ALL of its offensive weapons available on Sunday.  I’m going to PASS ON THIS GAME EVEN THOUGH I LIKE THE OVER A LITTLE BIT.

JETS -6 OVER ARIZONA (43.5) – Obviously neither of these two teams are playing well right now.  They both have a 4-7 record.  The Cards haven’t won a game since going 4-0 in September.  They have lost 7 in a row.  They travel cross country this week to play a Jets team that is under siege.  They have lost 6 of their last 8 games.  The Cards played Atlanta tough two weeks ago.  One of the big problems for the Cardinals is they really don’t have a decent starting QB.  Right now they’re on number 3 QB Ryan Lindley who can’t seem to find receivers and has a 47 QB rating.  Waiting for starting QB Kevin Kolb to come back from an injury is getting old.  Their offensive line can’t seem to protect the QB either having given up 47 sacks so far.  Jets QB Mark Sanchez isn’t much better nor is his supporting cast.  Their WRs give them nothing offensively.  The Jets’ leading receiver is a TE.  On Thanksgiving night, the Jets lost to the Pats by 30 points at home.  If you have a wild hair, play the better coached team on the road here.  I’M PASSING ON THE GAME.  IT ISN’T GOING TO BE PRETTY.

NEW ENGLAND -7 AT MIAMI (51) – This game is going to be tougher than it looks.  Miami for years has had the Patriots number especially in games in Miami.  The Patriots own a 14-33 record in Miami, not one of their more respectable series in their history.  Many of those losses came much earlier in the series and New England generally isn’t as good on the road as at home, not even close.  The Pats last 4 games they’ve scored 45, 37, 59, and 49 points respectively.  That’s SICK! Sure, they don’t have the Gronk, but they have several other weapons and Tom Brady.  The Dolphins rookie QB Ryan Tannehill is best in an up tempo mode. HC Joe Philbin knows how to move the football.  The Dolphins beat the tough Seattle Seahawks last week and scored 24 points.  If Miami is going to stay close and have a chance to win this game, they’ll have to put up some points. Dolphins are healthy, the Pats not so much.  I like the over here because the weather is nice and it’s not going to be that windy.  The key is going to be the Dolphins scoring points.  Even though the Dolphin defense has played well at times this season, they haven’t faced a team like New England this season.  Three weeks ago the Titans ran up 37 on them. I feel that the Pats can do much worse.  However, with a 3 game lead in the division and the Houston Texans coming up a week from now on Monday night, the Pats might cruise with the injury problems.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME COMPLETELY.

DETROIT -6 OVER INDIANAPOLIS (51) – Detroit is playing for their playoff lives this weekend.  If they lose they are done.  They may be done even if they win, but one thing is for sure.  They won’t go down without a fight.  On Thanksgiving they had the Houston Texans beat when a technicality cost them a touchdown that should never have happened. Indy is NOT that good of a football team. I have them rated as an OK—team. However, they have played exceptionally well as a team and have a 7-4 record. This is despite giving up 4.8 yards per carry and a 96.6 QB rating with 19 TD’s.  Those numbers are far worse than the Lions numbers. The Colts are also much better in the RCA Dome than on the road.  Matt Stafford is well on his way to a 5,000 yard season again.  WR Calvin Johnson is warming up and getting healthy.  He has caught 73 passes for 1,257 yards this season already.  RB MIkel LeShoure has done a good job running the football for the Lions. His 6 TD’s are the most TD’s by a Lions RB this late in the season since Kevin Smith 2008.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE LIONS IN A HOME WIN AND COVER HERE.  I’M GOING TO PLAY THE OVER 51 POINTS IN A SMALLER PLAY.

CAROLINA -3.5 AT KANSAS CITY (40.5) – I’m not even sure this game should take place, but like the U.S. Mail I guess, the show must go on. Cam Newton has looked better as of late.  His attitude and his offense looks much better as of late.  Kansas City has scored only 3 touchdowns in their last 7 games.  They have NO quarterback. They have a running game but can’t pass. I’m going to pass on the game just because I have no idea what God’s plans are for the outcome of this game.  Some things are more important than football. PASS.

CHICAGO -3 OVER SEATTLE (37.5) – The Bears are a good football team. They have been inconsistent at times but still lead the NFC North Division by a game over the Packers.  Bears QB Jay Cutler will have to contend with a beat up, not so great pass blocking offensive line.  The Bears will come out running the ball with Matt Forte and be looking to throw the ball downfield to WR Brandon Marshall.  Even though the Seahawks are just 6-5, they have played well behind rookie QB Russell Wilson.  He has thrown for a 94 point QB rating and has All Pro RB Marshawn Lynch to hand off to.  They lost a close game last week in Miami 24-21.  The Seahawks, however, have won all but one of their games at home this year.  Their only win on the road was early in the season against an impotent Carolina team that was struggling at the time. This is a game the Bears cannot afford to lose.  They have 3 division games out of the last 4 games starting next week.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE 3 POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

BUFFALO -6 OVER JACKSONVILLE (43.5) – These two teams are going nowhere fast.  One of Buffalo’s players recommended to the media this past week that their HC Chan Gailey give up his play calling for the offense.  Nice.  But Jacksonville, who had to wait over 2 months for their 2^nd win of the season, is alive.  They’re breathing and it’s because of their backup QB from Michigan WAY back Chad Henne. Henne was considered a better QB at Michigan than Brady ever was.  Unfortunately, they went different directions and the rest is history but right now this week Henne is taking a 99.6 QB rating into this game with Buffalo.  Buffalo has given up almost 30 points per game this season.  Both teams have played a pretty tough schedule.  Buffalo plays 4 of their last 5 games at home, with one home game in Toronto. They have a shot at an 8-8 season although I doubt they’ll see it.  Bills RB C.J. Spiller has rushed for 6.7 yards per carry and 830 yards this season.  Jacksonville has a 4-2 record in Buffalo lifetime.  In my opinion both teams will be scoring points almost at will tomorrow. I don’t see either defense doing much harm to the offenses of these teams.   Even though the weather is going to be a little rough, I like the OVER here of just 43 ½ .

SAN FRANCISCO -7.5 AT ST. LOUIS (40.5) – This game you would think would be a slam dunk. St. Louis three weeks ago played the 49ers even for 4 quarters in Candlestick park. Now the Rams HOST the same 49ers in their at their place indoors with their crowd.  You’d think that all of the money in the country would be bet on the Rams but it isn’t.  The 49ers have over 80% of the play right now. Colin Kaepernick will get the start again for the 49ers this week. After the tie to St. Louis the Niners have beaten Chicago and traveled to New Orleans and beaten Drew Brees and the Saints.  The Rams lost to the Jets at home and last week rebounded to beat the Cardinals at home.  The Rams offensive line is together for the first time all season long.  Defensively the Rams are going to have to deal with Kaepernick, a talented QB who moves in the pocket and can run for yardage.  He gives the Niners an edge there and will be tough to pressure and sack.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.

CLEVELAND -2.5 AT OAKLAND (38) – Two teams going in different directions here. Cleveland is improving and has been in almost every game this season despite their 3-8 record.  The Raiders seem to be imploding and don’t seem to have any real talent on the field anymore.  Right now they seem years away from winning.  Last week the Browns beat a Ben Roethelisberger-less Steelers team 20-14.  Earlier this season they beat the Bengals at home also.  They haven’t had as much luck on the road this season, but they’ve played tough. Losing to Cincy, Baltimore, the New York Giants, Indy, and in overtime to Dallas.  All of those games were winnable. Now they travel to the black hole where the Raiders don’t seem to have any home field advantage anymore.  They Raiders have lost 4 games in a row albeit to good teams but they really haven’t been in any of the games.  Now a tough Browns team comes in with rookie QB Brandon Weeden and rookie RB Trent Richardson.  The receivers have been making plays too.  Defensively, Cleveland has played well all year.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME BUT I LOVE THE OVER 38 POINTS! PLAY IT FOR 5 stars.

CINCINNATI -1 AT SAN DIEGO (46) – The Bengals and Andy Dalton seem to be warming up making a playoff run here late in the season.  I’ve always been wary of Marvin Lewis coached teams but this season he’s making a believer out of me.  After losing 4 in a row at midseason, the Bengals have reeled off three wins in a row after playing Denver tough at home.  One of those wins was against the Super Bowl Champion Giants.  Now they travel to San Diego where Norv Turner is all but gone.  I was watching NFL Network and LaDanian Tomlinson even said Norv has lost the locker room.  The Chargers 4 wins are against teams with a combined 9-35 record.  Last week the Chargers lost a tough one to the Ravens who they seemed to have beaten but the Ravens and Ray Rice converted a 4^th and 29 call for a first time then go on and score to take the game to overtime where they won the game 16-13.  That had to take a lot of steam out of the 4-7 Chargers.  Now the Bengals come to town needing a win.  Chargers RB Ryan Matthews has been a big disappointment this season.  He is their leading rusher averaging 4.1 yards per carry.  Future HOF TE Antonio Gates seems to be running out of gas.  He’s only caught 32 passes for 368 yards and just 4 TD’s.  Injuries and drops have defined the Chargers WRs this season.  At QB for the Chargers, Phillip Rivers continues to struggle with his mechanics and even though he has thrown for 18 TD’s he has 14 picks.  On the Bengals side of the ball, The Law Firm has been running the ball well the past several weeks.  He has 5 TDs and 767 yards from scrimmage.  Second year QB Andy Dalton has steadily improved this season going to his big guy A.J. Green for 10 TDs already and over 1,000 yards.  His TD Jermaine Gresham has as many yards as the top wideout for San Diego, Malcom Floyd. Dalton joins Dan Marino and Peyton Manning as the only rookie NFL QBs to have ever thrown for 20 TDs in their first two years in the league.  Pretty good company right there.   I’M GOING TO LEAVE THE STRAIGHT PLAY ALONE, BUT I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER FOR 4 STARS. I SEE NORV PUTTING THIS BALL IN THE AIR QUITE A BIT AGAINST THE BENGALS.

BALTIMORE -7.5 OVER PITTSBURGH (36.5) – This is my play of the week.  I’ve had this game circled since opening day even if Big Ben HAD been playing in the game. Now he won’t be there.  38 year old Charlie Batch gets the start for the Steelers and the Ravens defense will be ready.  The Steelers turned the ball over last week 8 times in a loss.  The Ravens have 12 straight wins in the NFC North division.  The Steelers were the last team to beat Baltimore at home in 2010.  The Steelers will keep it simple in Baltimore running the ball with RB Jonathan Dwyer who is averaging 4.4 yards per carry but has yet to score a touchdown.  TE Heath Miller will be getting a lot of looks for the Steelers from Batch.  The will try to stretch the field with Mike Wallace.  The Ravens will be ready to play on Sunday.  Flacco is good but especially good at home.  WR Torrey Smith has caught just 39 passes but has 7 TDs so far this season.  Anquan Boldin leads the team in receptions with 50 but only one score.  TE Dennis Pitta has become one of Flacco’s favorite targets catching 44 passes with 4 TD’s.  RB Ray Rice is the horse for the offense, having rushed for 794 yards and 7 TDs this season.  He has also caught 48 passes out of the backfield.  TAKE THE RAVENS IN THIS ONE MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. THIS IS MY PLAY OF THE WEEK!!

DENVER -7.5 OVER TAMPA BAY (50.5) – This game is going to be exciting with the Bucs coming to the high altitude with a bunch of tough young players trying to keep their playoff hopes alive.  The Broncos and Peyton Manning can’t really afford to let up this week.  If they do the Bucs are liable to win.  The race in the AFC West is all but over.  The Broncos lead by 4 games.  If they win today they can clinch the division title.  The Bucs have won their last 3 road games and lost a tough one last week at home to Atlanta 24-23.  Rookie RB Doug Martin has had a phenomenal year so far rushing for 1,050 yards and 9 TDs.  Second year QB Josh Freeman has improved drastically this season under the tutelage of rookie HC Greg Schiano.  Defensively the Bucs are improving also.  The Broncos are riding the arm of Peyton Manning and the very good Bronco defense.  Denver is only 1-3 against teams with a winning record this season.  Willis McGahee is out for the season for the Broncos.  Knowshon Moreno has done a decent job in his absence.  The Broncos only managed 17 points last week against the Kansas City Chiefs.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE BUCS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS AND THE OVER 50 POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

DALLAS -10.5 OVER PHILADELPHIA (48.5) – Two teams that you’re not used to being horrible this late in the season.  Dallas has several key injuries.  So do the Eagles.  Rookie QB Nick Foles will start again for the Eagles.  They have lost 7 games in a row for the first time since many, many years ago.  These last few, tough games are going to be tough for Andy Reid and his Eagles.  They players love Reid.  They just can’t help him with their talent level right now.  Mike Vick won’t be back till next week if he comes back next week.  Three weeks ago Tony Romo and the Cowboys traveled to Philly and won by 15 points.  I don’t see anything changing here this week even though the Cowboys generally don’t do that well at home.  They won in OT against Cleveland at home last week.  The Browns should have won the game.  Cowboys C Phil Costa is out.  DB Scandrick is out for the season.  S Charlie Peprah and NT Jay Ratliff are doubtful. The Cowboys do get back starting RB DeMarco Murray this week.  I should probably activate him for my fantsy team.  Personally, I would find it hard to just watch this game.  I have too much respect for both teams to do that.  It’s painful.  The Cowboys will probably win the game but it might not be that easy.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME.