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Pro Football Pick-Em – Picking against the spread

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GROUP ID# 17828
Password – football12

Matchups
ST. LOUIS -2.5 OVER MINNESOTA (38.5) – The Vikings are tough to handicap this season for a few reasons.  Number 1 reason is QB Christian Ponder is inconsistent in his play.  The only sure thing about the Vikings is that future HOF RB Adrian Peterson is going to make life miserable for the linebackers and defensive backs of the Rams when they try to tackle him.  A.P. has 1600 yards and 10 TD’s through 13 games.  If he averages 134 yards per game the rest of the way, he’ll get to 2,000 yards the first year after having knee surgery.  Jeff Fisher and his Rams are an average team but improving every week.  They have won three games in a row and have tied and beaten the San Francisco Giants, one of the top teams in the league.  This week they host the Vikings who still have a chance to make the playoffs but they must win this weekend to have any shot at all since the finish up with Houston and Green Bay.  After this game the Rams travel to Tampa and Seattle to finish up the season.  Probably not going to win those games.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME. TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

GREEN BAY -2.5 AT CHICAGO (43.5) – To say the Bears are banged up would be an understatement of tremendous proportions.  Green Bay DC Dom Capers has had Jay Cutler’s number for many games now.  His QB number against Capers lifetime is 55 in 7 meetings.  He is 1-5 as a starter against them.   The Bears have 3 starters on defense down since last weekend.  Cutler looks like he’ll play.  The Bears HAVE TO WIN this game to make the playoffs.  The Bears have lost 4 out of their last 5 games.  All Pro LB Clay Matthews comes back this week for the Packers defense.  The Packers have won the last 5 in this series and I’m looking  for number 6 here this Sunday. Even though I like the Pack here to win, I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME.

WASHINGTON  PICK AT CLEVELAND (37.5) – It seems that everyone betting this game right now feels that RG3 is going to start. Otherwise Cleveland would be the favorite by as much as 4 or 5 points.  However, I don’t think that Kirk Cousins will hurt the Skins if he starts.  RB Alfred Morris has 1228 yards on 253 carries this season.  Cleveland rookie RB Trent Richardson has 869 yards and has already tied Jim Brown’s rookie rushing TD record of 9.  Still the key here is Robert Griffin.  If Griffin starts and plays, and it could be a gametime decision, the Skins probably win.  If not, it is a toss up.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME SINCE IT IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL. RG3 DOUBT TOO BIG OF A FACTOR.

DENVER -3 OVER BATLTIMORE (48) – I really don’t see this line at all, even with Lewis out and Suggs 70%. The Ravens are a pretty good football team.   The Broncos and Peyton Manning have won 8 games in a row but the teams they’ve beaten have a combined `37-67 record. I don’t see the Broncos winning out in the regular season and if they beat the Ravens, they probably will with Cleveland and Kansas City next at home.  I like the fact that John Harbaugh finally fired Cam Cameron, his OC after his last minute loss last week against the Redskins.  Many would have liked to see that move much earlier, but Harbaugh has sent his message to his team.  Win NOW!  The Ravens MUST WIN this game to have a shot at the playoffs with the New York Giants and Cincinnati Bengals following this game.  BOTH of those teams must win also.  Denver is the team that doesn’t HAVE to win to make the playoffs.  Ravens QB Joe Flacco is much better at home with a 100.7 QB rating this season. Ravens RB Ray Rice will get plenty of touches on Sunday which will help the Ravens cause.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS ON SUNDAY!! THEY NEED THIS GAME FAR TOO BADLY TO LOSE IT.

HOUSTON -10 OVER INDIANAPOLIS (47.5) – Once again I’m going to challenge the overachieving Indy Colts and their Chuckstrong force that has been the biggest surprise this season.  I sound like a broke record but “I HAVE THE COLTS RATED A N OK—TEAM”.  I have the Texans rated as a GOOD team and they are playing at home.  After getting CRUSHED in New England last week, I see the Texans coming home and completely DESTROYING the COLTS at their place.  Two starting OLinemen for the Colts are out this week.  With just over 200 yards passing this week, Rookie QB Andrew Luck will have 4,000 yards.  WR Reggie Wayne needs 6 receptions to reach 100 again in a season.  The Texans should be able to pound Foster and Tate for big yardage on the ground making throwing the ball downfield to Johnson and the TE’s easy.  This game is a must for the Texans if they want to keep their quest for home field advantage in the playoffs.  After last week, I doubt they want to return to New England where nothing but bad things will happen.  Look for the Texans to come off that loss last week kicking ass.  TAKE THE HOUSTON TEXANS MINUS THE DOUBLE FIGURES FOR 5 STARS.

NEW ORLEANS -3.5 OVER TAMPA BAY (54) – Might be the highest total all season long but who cares? It will probably go over again but I’ll probably just play this total in a 3 teamer.  Tampa’s pass defense is worst in the league and even though Drew Brees has had 9 turnovers in his last two games, he should torch the Bucs again.  The only thing the Saints can do at this point is ruin everyone else’s party.  Tampa QB Josh Freeman has slowed down in the last two games but he’s still having a good year and has plenty of receivers to throw to.  The Saints defense sucks too.  Bucs RB Doug Martin has 1234 yards and 10 TD’s already.  Both teams have lost 3 in a row with the Saints playing the tougher schedule.  I’m GOING TO TAKE THE OVER FOR 4 STARS IN THIS GAME AND DON’T GIVE A DAMN WHO WINS THE GAME.

ATLANTA -1.5 OVER GIANTS (51) – This is a rematch of last year’s first round game in Atlanta where the Giants CRUSHED the Falcons 24-2.  These two teams don’t match up very well for the Falcons.  However, the Giants defense  isn’t the BEAST it was during the playoffs last year yet and this game should be much closer.  Three weeks ago the Giants DESTROYED Green Bay, then lost a close one in Washington, then put up a 50 burger last week against New Orleans.  Consistency is something the Giants have not been this season.  The Falcons until last week when they lost by 10 to the Carolina Panthers, had won several close games in winning 11 out of 12 games.  Now they host a Giants team that they should beat but find themselves barely a favorite against.  The Falcons are 6-0 at home as usual.  The Giants, normally road warriors, have lost their last two road games against Cincinnati and Washington.  Ahmad Bradshaw is OUT for the Giants. So is S Kenny Phillips.  So are two or three defensive players.  This game is Atlanta’s for the taking but the Giants need the game badly.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME BECAUSE IT’S JUST TOO CLOSE TO CALL, EVEN THOUGH THE FALCONS IS A GOOD VALUE HERE.

MIAMI -7.5 OVER JACKSONVILLE (37.5) – This game pretty much sucks. I guess Marv Albert is working for free along with Rich Gannon.  Please don’t make me even think about this game.

DETROIT -6.5 OVER ARIZONA (43.5) – I love Detroit here just because they need a win in the worst way and Arizona hasn’t won since September, having lost 9 games in a row.  Detroit isn’t much better having lost 5 games in a row.  The Cards are starting rookie Ryan Lindley who has a 42.6 QB rating. Seriiously, he does.  Last week Larry Fitzgerald caught 1 pass for 2 yards.  Seriously, he did.  Last week the Cards lost in Seattle by a score of 58-0.  The Lions have played several games in a row that have been close and they always seem to be in games late.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME BECAUSE NEITHER TEAM HAS MUCH TO PLAY FOR. BOTH TEAMS ARE PLAYING FOR THEIR COACHES’ JOBS BUT IT MIGHT BE TOO LATE.

SAN DIEGO -3 OVER CAROLINA (45) – It’s all over but the shouting in San Diego for Norv Turner and A.J. Smith but last week the Chargers traveled to Pittsburgh and beat Ben Roethelisberger and the Steelers 34-24.  In December, Norv Turner’s teams are 19-4 in San Diego.  Carolina’s Cam Newton has played well lately and brings a 88 QB rating into San Diego.  Philip River is a comparable 85 QB rating.  San Diego has the better defense and they are at home.  Last week the Panthers upset the 11`-1 Falcons by a score of 30-20.  With both teams coming off a loss, I’m going to go with Norv and the Chargers to win and cover at home.

SEATTLE -5 AT BUFFALO (43) – Seattle is by far the better team here and should win easily, but it IS on the road and it IS in TORONTO, NOT EVEN BUFFALO.  Buffalo RB Fred Jackson is OUT.  Seattle is 2-5 on the road this year.  They are undefeated at home.  Toronto is a long way from Seattle but the good news for the Seahawks is that they game is at 4:05 EDT, which is like a 1:05 game at home.  After this game in Toronto the Hawks return for their last two games at home against San Francisco and St. Louis.  With a win here in Toronto the Bills have a shot at an 8-8 record but I don’t think that is possible.  Russell Wilson has a 94.9 QB Rating.  Bills RB C.J. Spiller has a 6.6 yard per carry average this season.   Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch has a 4.9 yard per carry average and has a total of 1266 yards.  If Seattle doesn’t turn the ball over on Sunday, I don’t see the Bills being able to win the game.  Bills DE Mario Williams has finally shaken off some injuries and has 10.5 sacks.  I like Seattle winning this game but I think that 5 points might be too many.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME BUT I DO LIKE THE OVER 43 POINTS A TAD.

OAKLAND -3 OVER KANSAS CITY (44) – Two of the worst teams in the league.  Oakland HC will stay. Romeo Crennel will probably be gone and hopefully with GM Scott Paoli.  These two teams are so bad I feel that I will get something on me if I even talk about them.  Combined W-L records of 5-21 says all you need to know.  If the Chiefs don’t win this one, they’ll end up 2-14 and probably pick first in the draft.  That doesn’t sound like a bad thing.  Oakland is in the same boat.  A  loss here and they probably lose their last two games.  PASS.

PITTSBURGH -2.5 AT DALLAS (45) – Cowboys WR Dez Bryant has a broke finger but is supposed to play.  Steelers G Willie Colon is out for the season.  The Steelers will move some guys around to cover for him.  Big Ben came back last week and lost at home to the Chargers.  The Steelers are 3-0 against the NFC this season.  Dallas RB DeMarco Murray should be close to 100%  for the game.  Tony Romo has no choice but to win this game at home as an underdog in front of his home crowd.  Don’t be surprised to hear as many cheers in Dallas for the Steelers as the Cowboys because Steelers black and orange travel well.  The Cowboys defense is banged up so badly that I doubt they’ll have much of a chance to stop even a weakened Pittsburgh offense. However, the Boys are 4-1 in their last 5 games.  Go figure.  Maybe they don’t need much of a defense to win.   I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME, BUT I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER FOR 4 STARS.  45 POINTS SHOULD BE EASY.

NEW ENGLAND -4.5 OVER SAN FRANCISCO (46.5) – Tom Brady has NEVER beaten the San Francisco 49ers.  The Niners need to be careful here in New England.  The Pats hardly EVER lose at home for one reason or another.  Whether it’s good play or cheating or a combination of both, the Pats are what they are, and they are kicking ass and taking names right now. In their last 6 games the Pats have scored 255 points. That’s an AVERAGE of 42.5 points per game.  DAMN!!!  The Giants have only given up 184 points all season long.  Something has got to give.  San Francisco better not get caught looking ahead to next week to Seattle in a division game which may decide the winner of the NFC West.  The Pats have only6 Jacksonville and Miami after this game to finish off the regular season.  The Niners have Seattle and Arizona.  I LIKE THE PATS HERE MINUS THE POINTS AND THE OVER FOR 4 STARS EACH.