WEEK 17 NFL MATCHUPS

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Matchups
BUFFALO -3 OVER JETS (39) – The Jets beat the Bills opening day in September by 20 points.  Since that game not much positive has happened for either team.  The Jets defense is better than Buffalo’s but the Bills offense is much better than the Jets.  Mark Sanchez is back as the starting QB for the Jets after they discovered that Greg McElroy received a concussion after being sacked 11 times last weekend against the Chargers.  Tim Tebow is done for the year and Will not play for the Jets. Lucky Tebow.  There was talk earlier this week that Rex Ryan said that he wished that the Jets would fire him if they weren’t going to spend any more money to improve their offensive line.   He denied that he said that the next day but nothing is too hard to believe  about this circus we call the New York Jets.  The Jets have beaten the Bills 6 straight times. RB C.J. Spiller has rushed for a 6.5 yard average and 1,185 yards this season.  You would think the Bills could just bang him between the tackles and win but that isn’t the case.  He’s only carried the ball 183 times all season long.  Most of the Bills receivers are hurt.  The Bills have been outscored 89-39 during their current losing streak.   I’M GONG TO PASS ON THE GAME BECAUSE NEITHER TEAM IS HEALTHY ENOUGH TO COUNT ON.

CHICAGO -3 AT DETROIT (45) – The Bears are beat up but still in the playoff hunt but need to win against the Lions and the Packers need to beat the Vikings for them to have any chance at all. The Bears have won 8 of their last 9 games against the Lions.   Detroit seems to be in every game they play but their defense can’t seem to stop anyone.  Jay Cutler is a mystery. At times he looks phenomenal.  Other times he looks lost and frustrated.  Chicago’s big gun RB Matt Forte has a sprained ankle and is about 60% I hear.  He is probably going to play.  Brandon Marshall is Brandon Marshall, but he’ll be getting double and triple coverage the entire game.  To say Detroit has been a disappointment this season would be an understatement but they can score some points.  The lack of a decent running game gives opponents an advantage.  They can spend a lot of time double covering Calvin Johnson.  It looks like Matthew Stafford will become the first QB in NFL history to throw for 5,000 yards two seasons in a row.  Unfortunately for Stafford, he won’t be playing in the postseason. Many people think that the Lions are playing for HC Jim Schwartz’s job.  Evidently there is friction between GM Martin Mayhew and Schwartz.   Bears LB Brian Urlacher will not play this week because of a bad hamstring.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER IN THIS GAME INSIDE A DOME FOR 4 STARS l BOTH TEAMS WILL BE LIGHTING IT UP.

NEW ORLEANS -5 OVER CAROLINA (54) – Two teams with almost identical results this season. Both teams for different reasons started out very slow.  The Saints with Bountygate looming large and the loss of their head coach Sean Peyton hitting them hard, they started 0-4.  The Panthers finished 6-10 last season and looked they they’d improve only to start 2-8 looking nothing like a winning NFL football team. Lately, however, both teams have looked much better.  The Saints have gone 7-4 since their tough start and the Panthers have won 5 of their last 8 games with wins against Atlanta and Washington.  Now both teams finish up against each other, a division game with more meaning than most.  Carolina won the first game between the two 35-27 in Charlotte.  Most of the money is on New Orleans but I like the Panthers here, 5 points in what seems to me to be a toss up.  This week Saints HC Sean Peyton signed a huge deal giving him an additional 5 years in New Orleans.  The Panthers, on the other hand, are playing for Head Coach Ron Rivera’s job.  coaching move.  This should be interesting.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS.

ATLANTA -3.5 OVER TAMPA BAY (45.5) – With a guaranteed off week with the NFC’s number 1 seed, the Falcons will probably play their starters at least for a half and try to keep their momentum going as they go after their 14th win.  Smith has said nothing so far about resting his starters.  Being a division game and facing a team that has lost 5 games in a row anything is possible.  After a great start the Bucs have lost 5 in a row and played themselves out of the playoff hunt.  Bucs QB Josh Freeman has thrown 8 picks in his last 2 games.  That is as many as he threw in his first 13 games.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.

HOUSTON -6.5 AT INDIANAPOLIS (46.5)-  The Texans have NEVER won in Indy.  They are 0-10 there.  The Colts have won 5 straight home games.  This is a tough game to call only because the Texans NEED the game to keep home field advantage in the AFC playoffs and the Colts are LOCKED in at the 5th seed for playoffs already.  The Colts could elect to cruise through this game resting many or all of their starters for the playoffs.  Houston really can’t afford to do that unless they want to play a championship game somewhere besides their home field. After his bout with cancer, Chuck Pagano will be on the sideline for the Colts.  Both GM’s Ryan Grigson and Rick Smith were teammates at Purdue in 1991-92. Indy is either going to travel to New England or Baltimore depending on what the outcome of the Bengals-Ravens game is.  It seems that it would be hard for the Colts to tone down the emotion in the game and not play to win.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE IT’S JUST TOO TOUGH TO PREDICT WHAT THE COLTS WILL DO.

PITTSBURGH -10 OVER CLEVELAND (34.5) – The Steelers need a win to break even this season at 8-8.   Ben Roethlisberger is 14-1 lifetime against the Browns.  The Browns won the earlier game this season at home by a score of 20-14.  Because of injuries the Browns go to their practice squad QB Thaddeus Lewis who played his college ball at Duke under David Cutcliffe, Eli and Peyton Manning’s college coach.  Because of my relationship with Ron Middleton who still coaches at Duke with Cutcliffe, I watched Lewis play quite a bit in college.  He’s a player and understands the passing game.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see him play well on Sunday.  The Steelers will be without TE Heath Miller.  Cleveland RB Trent Richardson is OUT for Sunday also.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.

 

TENNESSEE -4.5 OVER JACKSONVILLE (42) – Two of the worst teams in the league may be undergoing major change after this game is over.  It wouldn’t surprise me if both Mike Mularkey of Jacksonville and Mike Munchak of the Titans both lost their jobs. New GM’s wouldn’t hurt either. To handicap this game would be a complete waste of time.  Last week Tennessee lost to the Packers 55-7.  Jacksonville right now looks like the first pick in the 2013 draft.  PASS.

CINCINNATI -2.5 OVER BALTIMORE (41) – This could be the second of three games between these two division rivals this season. The Bengals have sewn up the 6th seed and would play the Ravens again next week if the Ravens win. Something tells me the Ravens DON’T want that so I look for the Ravens to possibly throw this game to the Bengals so they will face another opponent at home. In their home opener this season the Ravens beat Cincinnati 44-13.  The Steelers and the Browns are both out of the playoffs.  I’m going to PASS on this game.

GIANTS -7 OVER PHILADELPHIA (46) – The Giants need the Cowboys to lose to the Redskins and they need to beat the Eagles AND have the Packers beat the Vikings in order to have a chance to make the playoffs.  Otherwise they’ll see a pretty massive late season meltdown cost them a chance to repeat as Super Bowl Champs.  Mike Vick is supposed to get the start for the Eagles this week after Nick Foles broke his hand last week.  Vick hasn’t played in 8 weeks.  The Eagles may play hard in what turns out to be HC Andy Reid’s final game as an Eagles head coach.  Andy had a great run in Philly with some great defenses and Donovan McNabb at QB.  Unfortunately, his team failed the past couple of years to produce.  The Eagles are BARELY an OK—team.  The Giants are OK and they are at home.  Eli Manning has gone from an “elite” QB to an also ran the second half of the season.  After starting the season 6-2 the Giants have lost 5 of their last 7 games.  To their credit, the G-men have played a tough schedule.   Losses to Dallas, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Washington, Atlanta, and Baltimore have hurt the Giants.  THIS GAME IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL.  PASS.

NEW ENGLAND -10.5 OVER MIAMI (46) – If the Pats see that Houston and Denver have won and are winning while their own game is being played in Foxboro, Belichick might rest some of his starters especially on the offensive line.  It should be cold and possibly snowing in New England during the game.  Miami generally doesn’t fare too well in the cold.  However, they’re not that bad.  I’m going to PASS ON PLAYING THE GAME BECAUSE OF THESE REASONS.  BTW, Wes Welker set an NFL record catching at least 10 passes in 18 games. With a win Miami can even up their record at 8-8.  Not bad for first year HC Joe Philbin who has done a good job this year. The Pats could end up in any of the top 4 seeds depending on the results today.  Reggie Bush needs 40 rushing yards to get 1,000 yards rushing this season.

GREEN BAY -3.5 OVER MINNESOTA (46) – Green Bay needs a win here to get a first round bye in the playoffs. Right it down. Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers are almost unbeatable in domes.  He’s the best NFL QB indoors.  Adrian Peterson won’t be 100% and the Vikings need to win to have any chance at the playoffs this season.  I don’t think it will matter. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE PACKERS TO WIN BY AT LEAST A TOUCHDOWN AGAINST THE VIKES.  GIVE THE POINTS.

SAN FRANCISCO -16.5 OVER ARIZONA (39) – I really don’t see how the the Cards are going to be able to stay close to a pissed off 49ers team that got KILLED by the Seahawks last week.  The only way the 49ers don’t win the West is with a loss on Sunday.  I see a 27-0 win here for the Niners.  The defense will have to figure out how to win without Justin Smith who may be out for the season with a torn triceps.  I’M GOING TO PLAY THE NINERS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

SAN DIEGO -9.5 OVER OAKLAND (39.5) – This will be HC Norv Turner’s last game as the HC of the Chargers.  GM A.J. Smith might be gone too.  Norv may end up as an OC somewhere but his head coaching days are over for now.  With QB Carson Palmer out for the Raiders, look for backups Matt Leinart and Terrell Pryor to get all the snaps.  Even though the Chargers with a win will end up 7-9 this season, look for Chargers QB Phillip Rivers to go down throwing.  He has a 25-5 record as a starting QB in December.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME WITH THE LINE AS HIGH AS 10 POINTS NOW.

DENVER -16.5 OVER KANSAS CITY (42) – The Broncos have won 10 games in a row. Peyton Manning is working out pretty well in Denver.  The Broncos can ensure they will have a first round bye with a win here today and at the same time, ensure that the Chiefs will have the first pick in the draft.  I can’t believe that the Chiefs would even risk that option.  The Broncos have won their last 3 games by a combined 52 points.  A win today would give HC John Fox 100 including the playoffs.  RB Knowshon Moreno has been fantastic at RB since taking over in Denver.  They have the best defense in the league.  I’M GONG TO TAKE DENVER AND GIVE ALL THOSE POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

SEATTLE -11 OVER ST. LOUIS (42.5) – Seattle has scored 150 points and given up just 30 points the past three games.  The Rams will come to play Sunday because a win puts them over .500 for the first time since the “fastest show on turf” teams.  Seattle can only win the division if the 49ers lose to the Cards.  That isn’t going to happen.  Seahawk QB Russell Wilson is a monster.  He may very well win ROY honors this season, beating out the first two picks in the draft.  He was a 3rd round pick.  The Seahawks are 7-0 at home.  How hard they play and how many starters they rest will depend on a number of factors but I can’t help but think that Pete Carroll will try his hardest to win this game.  I don’t think the Seahawks know any other way to play.  Rams HC Jeff Fisher has done a remarkable job this season and normally would be in contention for COY honors.  However, there are so many HCs that have done remarkable jobs this season, that is unlikely.  Sam Bradford can throw the ball but has a limited arsenal of receivers.  Their running game is all but done for the season.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME BUT IT SHOULD BE A SEAHAWK WIN.

WASHINGTON -3 OVER DALLAS (49.5) – It doesn’t get any better than this in the NFL.  Last game of the season, winner wins the division outright game on national TV at 8:30 on Sunday night.  Add to that it is the team I grew up loving and it’s even better.  Both teams are playing well right now.  I never thought I’d be saying what I’m about to say but the Redskins defense has been playing better than Dallas recently.  The Redskins offense leads the league in rushing with rookie RB Alfred Morris in contention for ROY against his own RG3.  The Redskins offense has over 6,000 yards total already.  The Skins have won 6 in a row.  The Cowboys have won 5 out of their last 7.  Whoever makes the fewest mistakes will win the game.  Robert Griffin is about 70-80% after injuring his knee three weeks ago.  Last week he played the entire game but was just a shell of what he usually is but it was good enough to hold on to beat the Eagles.  Nobody is any hotter than Tony Romo right now.  I’M GOING TO TAKE WASHINGTON MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS.  I JUST THINK IT’S THEIR TIME.

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