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WEEK 2 NFL MATCHUPS
NEW YORK GIANTS -7 OVER TAMPA BAY (44) – I wasn’t that surprised that the Giants lost in week 1 to the Cowboys. Dallas was prepared for this game better than probably any game in the past two or three seasons. Coughlin and the G-men have shown in recent years that it usually takes them a while to get some consistency that brings the wins. HOWEVER, this week against a Tampa Bay team that stacked the line of scrimmage and dared Cam Newton to throw the football without many decent receivers, the Giants should have much better luck. I CONSIDER THIS A MUST WIN FOR THE G-MEN. They can’t afford to lose two games at home to start the season. The Bucs win last week and the Giants loss have kept the betting line at a very valuable 7 points. I see the Bucs slamming their rookie RB Doug Martin, who had 28 touches last week, into the Giants pass rushing defensive line and having some success. However, I don’t see the Bucs being able to do to Eli Manning what they did to Cam Newton last week. The Giants receivers are probably chomping at the bit to get an opportunity to burn Ronde Barber and company on Sunday. There is no way that the Bucs defensive backfield can cover the Giants receivers man for man without help from a nickel package or the linebacking corps. That should open up the Giants entire playbook. Even though I usually don’t like to play the Giants at home for any reason, I see this 7 point line as being an opportunity to get a good value out of the Giants against an inferior team. This game COULD be a blowout. TAKE THE GIANTS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS.
OAKLAND -1 AT MIAMI (38.5) – Two teams in the long term rebuilding mode, the Dolphins QB had a tough opening day last week against a very good Houston team. Rookie QB Ryan Tannehill had a 39 QB rating which isn’t going to get it done. He threw 3 picks and didn’t throw a touchdown pass. The Raiders defense is good enough to make things tough on Tannehill again this week. Miami RB Reggie Bush had a decent day carrying the ball 14 times for 69 yards but the Dolphins were never in the game. Oakland lost a tough game against San Diego and if it hadn’t been for losing their long snapper with a head injury, may very well have won the game. Look for a close game but in the end Carson Palmer will find a way to score more points than than the rookie QB from Miami. However, last season the Dolphins beat the Raiders 34-14 and they ARE at home. I’m going to PASS on the game just to be safe and because of the long trip that the Raiders took to play the game.
HOUSTON -7 AT JACKSONVILLE (41.5) – Even though the Jaguars lost in OT in Minnesota last week, they controlled the ball for 35 minutes in the game. Maurice Jones-Drew had an excellent game considering he didn’t play during the preseason. QB Blaine Gabbert had maybe the best game of his short career throwing for a 96 QB Rating, two touchdowns, and no picks. Minnesota WAS able to run the football against the Jags even with about a 70% Adrian Peterson. This will be Mike Mullarkey and new owner Shad Kahn’s first home game. RB Rashad Jennings was hurt in the second quarter of last week’s game and is out for this week’s game. If MJD can’t shoulder the load, it could get interesting. Houston QB Matt Schaub had a normal game for him, completing 20 of 31 passes for 266 yards and a touchdown. Arian Foster carried the ball 26 times for just 79 yards so their OL needs to improve their blocking assignments to turn Foster and Tate loose. All Pro WR Andre Johnson caught 8 passes for 119 yards and a touchdown. Miami’s defense, even though they lost the game, didn’t play badly versus the Texans last week. Since 2010, MJD and Arian Foster are numbers 1 and 2 in the NFL in rushing. Could be a hell of a chance to see this matchup. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME HOWEVER. The Titans are the better team by far, but I don’t like the line or the location of the game.
CINCINNATI -7 OVER CLEVELAND (38.5) – Cincinnati ran into a buzzstorm in Baltimore last week. Art Modell had just passed away and a very emotional group of Ravens lined up up against a Cincinnati team that is good, but not nearly as good as the Ravens. This week, however, they’re catching a weak Browns team that just had their best defensive player go down for 4 games for substance abuse. CB Joe Haden is being replaced by Dmitri Patterson and that should make the Browns play a lot more zone defense in order to keep the mismatches to a minimum. WR A.J. Green and TE Jermaine Gresham will get plenty of touches and should have their way with the Browns defensive backfield. Brandon Weeden had the lowest opening day passer rating in NFL history with a 5.1. The Browns have to pound rookie (but banged up) RB Trent Richardson and the Bengals will be ready. Even though the past six meetings of these two teams has been decided by 3 points or less, I don’t see that being the case here on Sunday. I look for Andy Dalton and his offense to control the ball and score almost at will in a game that will make Bengals fans forget about how ugly last week was. They will wear the Cleveland defense down and beat them soundly. TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS HERE.
BALTIMORE RAVENS +1 AT PHILLY (46.5) – On my show on AM 1230 WFAS NEW YORK this Sunday morning, we’ll be speaking to Clark Judge, CBS insider and analyst, who will break down this incredibly important game on Sunday in Philly. Clark will be there working the game. Personally, I don’t see how with the things I’ve seen this week (Andy shutting practice down for reporters, injuries to Macklin AND DeSean Jackson, Vick’s rustiness, inability to move the football, turnovers) how the Eagles can win this game. I can’t help but think the Ravens, even with Flacco’s history of road woes, having anything but a good complete game on offense and defense against an Eagles team that really doesn’t have much more right now that LeSean McCoy’s legs. Mike Vick is in his second week of preseason in my opinion. Can he have a good game? Possibly…but I doubt it against this Ravens team. The Eagles had 5 turnovers against maybe the worst team in the league last week, the Cleveland Browns. The Ravens defense is a work in progress, but they sure did look good against the Bengals last week. Ray Rice only had 10 carries but 68 yards and caught 3 passes for 25 yards. Joe Flacco, in his no huddle offense, spread the ball around to 7 different receivers completing 21 of 29 for 299 yards and two touchdowns and no picks. The no huddle seems to suit Flacco well. Look for a fairly high scoring but physical game in Philly this Sunday with the team making the fewest mistakes probably coming away with the Victory!! I’M GOING TO PLAY THE RAVENS PLUS OR MINUS A POINT FOR 3 STARS. THEY ARE THE BETTER TEAM FOR SURE AND IT’S ONLY AN HOUR AND A HALF BUS RIDE.
NEW ORLEANS -1 AT CAROLINA (51) – After watching what the Redskins did to the Saints last week in the Superdome, it’s hard for me to think that things will get much better here this week in Charlotte for the Saints, but playing a team who you’ve beaten 6 times in a row might be the elixir needed for New Orleans. Carolina’s defense isn’t that strong, but last week they only gave up 268 total yards in a loss at Tampa Bay. But their defense wasn’t their problem. The Panthers and Cam Newton only had the ball for 22 minutes. Carolina couldn’t run the ball at all, getting 10 yards on just 13 carries and gave up on the run completely far too early in the game. Drew Brees threw for the worst QB rating I can ever remember last week (70.9) and completed only 24 of 52 passes for 339 yards, three TD’s and two picks. Not a usual Drew Brees game, but he was playing catchup almost the entire game. Against a very average Panthers defense, look for Brees to run the ball more and mix up Sproles, Graham, and the WR’s early. I expect Pierre Thomas to be more involved in the game this week also. I’m going TO PLAY THE SAINTS MINUST THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS HERE. I CAN’T SEE BREES LOSING TO CAM NEWTON ON SUNDAY. NO WAY.
MINNESOTA -1 AT INDY (44.5) – This should be a very competitive football game. Last week the Vikings didn’t sack the QB for the first time in 26 games. That’s on hell of a streak. They also played the Jacksonville Jaguars, who aren’t really known for their great pass blocking and who have a second year average QB in Blaine Gabbert. This week, Minny plays the Colts, who in my opinion, have a rookie QB who is better than Gabbert already in Andrew Luck. The Vikings gave up almost 400 yards total offene to the Jags last week, with a first week MJD. Indy’s defense is a work in progress and won’t be the kind of defense they’re looking for anytime soon. However, if they can make a few plays against Christian Ponder and the Vikings offense and get some stops on defense, they can give Luck the ball enough to get them some points. Donald Brown had some success running the football last week and if Reggie Wayne gets 62 yards receiving on Sunday, he will pass Michael Irvin and move into 20th place in career yards for a receiver. Minnesota is going to score some points. They’re comfortable in a dome situation since they play in one. They are coming off a win. The only thing I’m sure of here is that Indy AND Minny will score some points and maybe quite a few. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER HERE, SINCE THERE’S NO WEATHER TO CONTEND WITH, FOR 5 STARS HERE.
KANSAS CITY +3 ½ AT BUFFALO (44.5) – I’m sorry! I don’t see how Buffalo can be favored against the Chiefs ANYWHERE! The Bills showed me last week in their loss to the Jets that they are far from being a competitive team this season. Let’s look at the numbers. They gave up 19 for 27 for 266 yards to MARK SANCHEZ, a QB that usually has very low yards/attempt numbers had 9.65 yards per attempt. Sanchez threw for 3 TD’s and only one pick. Sanchez and his receiving corps threw for a 123.4 QB rating. The Jets rushed 36 times for 118 yards. RB C.J. Spiller DID have 169 yards on 14 carries but most of those yards came on two carries. Kansas City comes into Buffalo with a much better running game than the Jets. Jamaal Charles against the Falcons had 87 yards on 16 carries. QB Matt Cassell should have a much better time against the Bills secondary. RB Fred Jackson is out indefinitely andWR David Nelson is out for the season. This is not good for the Bills. Since Ryan Fitzpatrick signed his big deal in the middle of last season, nothing good has happened to the Bills or their offense. Romeo will have his defense ready for Fitzpatrick and his banged up offense. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS, WHO MANY PEOPLE THINK WILL WIN THE WEST, TO GO TO BUFFALO AND BEAT THE BILLS AND COVER THE SPREAD THIS WEKEND. 4 STARS.
NEW ENGLAND -13 ½ OVER ARIZONA (48) – ZONA traveling cross country for an early game against the always tough Pats with a new face at QB can’t be a good thing..or can it? John Skelton goes down and Kevin Kolb, who the Cards spent a ton of money on a couple of year ago will get the start this week for sure. Last week the Cards held on inside the 5 yard line to beat the Seahawks after Kolb came in and did a great job leading the Cards down the field for the go ahead touchdown. The Cards were never able to get their running game going getting just 43 yards in 20 attempts. Last week, Tom Brady and New England played error free football and easily beat Tennessee at their place. Pretty impressive for a team that showed absolutely nothing in the preseason. They held RB Chris Johnson to 8 yards in 11 carries. That’s not going to win him a rushing title. Stevan Ridley is the RB of the week for the Pats, rushing for 125 yards on 21 carries. Mix that with a QB rating of 117 for Brady and you have an excellent offensive showing. With a lot of new faces, the Pats defense proved they could play also. This game will pit two good defenses against offenses which are quite different. The Pats haven’t lost a home opener in like 20 years so look for something good here from New England. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME!
WASHINGTON -3 AT ST. LOUIS (45 ½ ) –What a difference a week makes. The Redskins got a once in a lifetime start by rookie QB Robert Griffin and held on to beat the New Orleans Saints in the Superdome by a score of 40-32. Griffin was 19 for 26 for 320 yards and 2 TD’s with no picks. Not bad for his first NFL start! Another rookie, Alfred Morris got the start at QB ahead of veterans and ran for 96 yards in 28 tries. The Rams had a lead late in the game against the tough Detroit Lions, who got a slow start, and lost by a score of 27-23. Sam Bradford had a good day throwing the ball going 17 for 25 for 198 yards and a touchdown. RB Steven Jackson had a tough day carrying the ball 21 times for 53 yards. The Detroit front 7 kept the running game in check. Three picks by the Rams defense kept the game close till the end. During the game, the Rams offensive line incurred three different injuries to their starters. Two are still out as of right now and one might start. This could make it very tough for Jeff Fisher’s offense to handle the very good front 7 of the Redskins led by London Fletcher. I like the Redkins here but they’ve always had a tough time in the dome in St. Louis. The good news for the Skins is that they prepared and played in a dome last week, so their preparation was very consistent. I’M GOING TO PASS ON GAME ANYWAY, THOUGH I DO THINK THE REDSKINS MIGHT BE THE BETTER TEAM ON SUNDAY.
DALLAS -3 AT SEATTLE (41½ ) – Last week, rookie QB Russell Wilson came just a few yards from winning his opening game in the NFL. The key for the Seahawks staying with the talented Dallas offense is to keep the ball themselves. Wilson and the Hawks will need to control the ball on the ground with Marshawn Lynch and continue to throw short passes against the Dallas linebackers. WR’s Braylon Edwards and Sydney Rice combined for 9 catches but for just 79 yards. If they’re going to have success against the Cowboys, they’ll need to stretch the field more than that. I’m not sure they can actually do that. Tony Romo had one of his best games as a Cowboy completing 22 of 29 passes for 307 yards and 3 TD’s against last year’s Super Bowl Champion Giants. The Cowboys have also had an extra 4 days to rest and prepare to play the Seahawks. WR Kevin Ogletree had his best game in the pros catching 8 balls for 114 yards and 2 touchdowns. Miles Austin and Dez Bryant combined for another 158 yards of receptions and second year RB DeMarco Murray rushed 20 times for 131 yards. Look for more of DeMarco Murray this week to open up the passing lanes and give Romo time to throw. Seattle’s front 7 is pretty good. I’m taking the Cowboys with the extra time and the fact that it IS EARLY IN THE SEASON, when the play well anyway, to handle Wilson and his offense and outscore them. I’M TAKING THE COWBOYS FOR 4 STARS IN THIS GAME.
SAN DIEGO -6 OVER TENNESSEE (43) – San Diego pulled one out on Monday night against the Raiders even though they really didn’t look all that good doing it. If it hadn’t been for Oakland losing their long snapper to a head injury early in the game, the Chargers might have lost the game. Ryan Matthews, out with a broken collar bone, might be out again this week. Rookie LT Mike Harris is being asked to protect the blind side of Phillip Rivers who doesn’t move all that well in the pocket. Tennessee QB Jake Locker may or may not play this Sunday but if he can’t go, the Titans don’t lose anything starting backup Matt Hasselbeck. The key to this game is both teams’ running games. If Chris Johnson can’t get off the line of scrimmage and into the secondary of the Chargers defense, it’s gonna be a long day for the Titans. If they can run, they can beat the Chargers. Too many question marks on the San Diego side of the ball so I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.
SAN FRANCISCO -7 OVER DETROIT (46.5) – Just like last season, this could be one hell of a football game. After seeing the Bears again this week, I’ve got to think that the Lions are the team to beat in the NFC North this season, along with the Packers. Dubbed the “Handshake Bowl” game, because of the crap that happened last season after the game was over, there will be a lot of people paying attention to this game. First of all, the winner will be undefeated. It’s the 49ers home opener at the Stick. I’ve already picked the 49ers to be in the Super Bowl this season, so you know I’m on them here. First of all, what they did to the Packers in Lambeau last week was brutal. They TOTALLY dominated the Packers in every facet of the game. The 49ers are healthy. Alex Smith continues to improve running Harbaugh’s offense. Randy Moss even caught a TD last week. RB Frank Gore had 112 yards on 16 yards. K David Akers tied an NFL record with a 63 yard FG. Their defense is all over the ball. Matthew Stafford has Megatron and a host of other receivers but I don’t see them having too much success on Sunday night. Stafford threw 3 picks against the RAMS defense last week. This 49ers defense is much better than the Rams. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. THIS IS MY NFL PLAY OF THE WEEK. IF YOU WANT A HEDGE WITH THE TOTAL, TAKE THE OVER.
ATLANTA -3 OVER DENVER (51) – This game should get some great Monday Night Ratings this week. Peyton Manning, hot off his win last week in Denver, Peyton and the Broncos travel to Atlanta this weekend to play the always-tough-at-home Falcons in the Georgia Dome. HC Mike Smith has quietly taken control of the 3rd best home record in the NFL since 2008 at 26-6. That is a GREAT record at home. Peyton Manning IS the reason that the Broncos are favored. It has NOTHING to do with the quality of the teams. In my opinion, the Falcons should be the favorite here. The Falcons traveled to Kansas City last week and beat a pretty good Chiefs team in a place that’s hard to play in. Now, they go home and play their home opener against a future HOFer who can’t be 100%. The Denver secondary is good, not great but Champ Bailey and company should be able to hang with the likes of Julio Jones and Roddy White. RB Michael Turner only had 32 yards rushing last week so look for him to touch the ball more this week. If the Broncos double either White or Jones, the other has single coverage. On the other side of the ball with Atlanta’s secondary there is also a problem. CB Brent Grimes is out for the season with an injury. This creates problems for Atlanta because of their talent level. Look for Peyton Manning to take advantage of the matchups with his no-huddle. The total is 51. This game could go over pretty early AND the game is indoors. I like TEASING THE OVER WITH THE FALCONS HERE. NOTHING ELSE. YOU CAN HEDGE WITH THE OVER IF YOU’D LIKE FOR A SMALLER PLAY.