INDY (1-13) +6 OVER HOUSTON (10-4)(46) – You know, maybe I’m just crazy and have been around way too long, but I see a chance for Indy here to win at home in front of a big Thursday night crowd after winning their first game of the season last Sunday against Tennessee. I think they might win 3 in a row to end off the season. Let’s look at Texans first. They have averaged just a little over 16 points a game with rookie QB T.J. Yates in the lineup. Went down early 21-0 to CAROLINA at home last week before the rout was on. Problem when you wrap up early is intensity level of players during practice AND the games. Texas is good, but maybe it’s a little different being out there without DC Wade Phillips who’s in the hospital following surgery. Also, this may be the last game at Lucas Oil Stadium for several Colts veterans. How will they want to go out? Dan Orlovsky has settled in and is doing a good job not only working with the first unit but also in the 2 minute offense. Indy RB Donald Brown had his career day running the football last weekend in big home win against Tennessee. Peyton Manning officially put on IR this week after throwing the ball a bit last week with shoulder pads and a helmet on. The Texans roster is pretty banged up. CALL ME CRAZY BUT I’M TAKING THE COLT PLUS THE POINTS AS A HOME DOG AGAINST THE TEXANS! 3 STARS….

THURSDAY NITE (NFL NETWORK)

ATLANTA (8-5) -12 OVER JACKSONVILLE (4-9)(42.5) – Jacksonville is coming off of it’s best
offensive showing of the season, a 41-14 win last week over a reeling Tampa Bay team. Evidently
the firing of Jack Del Rio didn’t affect the team in a bad way, but Atlanta is MUCH better than
the Bucs. The Falcons are 26-2 when they get the ball to Michael turner over 20 times in a game.
He already has 1,068 yards rushing and is facing a Jacksonville team that has given up 12 rushing
touchdowns this year. Last week rookie QB Blaine Gabbert has his best game of the season. Falcon
QB Matt Ryan should have his way with the Jacksonville defensive backfield getting the ball to
Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez. The Falcons can’t afford to lose this game because
they travel to New Orleans next week which will be tough. The Jags really have nothing to play for
so I like Atlanta here, but not giving up 12 points. Since early in the season, they’ve struggled at
home against the spread. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME TONIGHT. IF YOU HELD A GUN
TO MY HEAD I’D TAKE THE JAGS.

SATURDAY GAME

DALLAS (7-6) -6 ½ OVER TAMPA BAY (4-9)(47) – Even though the Cowboys are extremely
inefficient at closing out games where they have a lead, I have them ranked as an OK++ team and
the Bucs are barely an OK—team. Even though they are at home, the Bucs since beating Atlanta
and New Orleans at home the first half of the season have slid to a point of the season where
they’ve lost 7 games in a row and cumulatively just scored 119 points while giving up 227. QB Josh
Freeman has a 72.5 QB rating and has thrown just 12 TD passes compared to an 18 intereptions.
Tony Romo and the Cowboys MUST win this game. They have figured out more ways to lose games
in the fourth quarter than any team in recent history I can remember. RB DeMarco Murray went
down for the season last week. That means Felix Jones will start the rest of the season at RB for
the Boys. The Cowboys have plenty of firepower through the air with WR’s Dez Bryant, Laurent
Robinson, and TE Jason Witten. The Cowboys should be able to score at will against the Bucs, but
the Bucs should have some success also moving the football. The question is, will they care about
winning any more after losing 7 in a row? I’M GOING TO TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE
POINTS FOR 3 STARS HERE. They MUST win the game and WILL!

PHILLY (4-7) -3 OVER SEATTLE ()4-7) (43.5) – Well, I was all over Philly from a pure “gut” standpoint for this game for weeks, then the Eagles are imploding looking like a pretty lousy defense with their 2nd string QB who is one hammy away from being Kafka. Macklin is out. Vick is out. Rodgers-Cromartie is out. They could win tonight, but like they say “I wouldn’t bet on it!” so I’m not. I’m going to pass on this game and hope that the Seahawks deliver another blow to an NFC East team. I really don’t want the Cowboys to win the East, but it’s looking more and more like it’s going to happen thanks to the Giants lack of defense all of a sudden. Like I tweeted everywhere in the country the other night…THE NFC EAST SUCKS. PASS.

NFL MATCHUPS WEEK 12

GREEN BAY (10-0) -6 ½ AT DETROIT (7-3)(5 ½) – This is going to be one of the best Thanksgiving Day games in Detroit in some time.  At least it means something for the Lions for a change.  Green Bay has won 16 games in a row dating back to last season and a Super Bowl victory.  Detroit started off 5-0 this season only to go 2-3 in its past 5 games.  The Packers are a better team than the Lions for sure, but how much better in Detroit remains to be seen.  Both teams are almost mirror images of each other offensively. Neither team really relies on the run too much and both give up more yardage on the ground than they make themselves.  The Packers are deeper personnel wise and have Aaron Rodgers.  Even though Matt Stafford is a good QB, he’s still young and makes mistakes He’s been picked off 10 times this season.  He has an injured finger that is supposedly getting better.  Their last two home games, the Lions lost to San Francisco and Atlanta, which proves that the home field advantage there isn’t much of one.  The Packers are better than both of those teams.  Indoors, Aaron Rodgers’ numbers are unbelievable, something like a 125 QB rating when it’s 72 degrees and no wind.  I’M TAKING THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS AND THE OVER FOR 4 STARS EACH.  Everyone in the country is probably on the same numbers, but I don’t care.  If Detroit is going to keep it close (and last weekend they scored 49 points), they’ll have to score at least 31 points in this game.  I don’t see Detroit slowing the Packers offense down unless Rodgers gets hurt.  Green Bay has played better at home than on the road, but the road doesn’t seem to cause them many problems.  CALL 1-800-466-4748 for an updated evaluation of the game after 8 a.m. on THANKSGIVING!

DALLAS (6-4) – 7 OVER MIAMI (3-7)(44) – I HAVE THE COWBOYS RATED AT OK ++.  I HAVE THE DOLPHINS RATED AT OK.  The Cowboys are sitting at the top of the NFC East after their 3^rd straight win over the Washington Redskins last week in overtime.  We lost on the Cowboys ATS but they didn’t play all that well and the Redskins blew a couple of chances to win the game outright.  This is a perfect opportunity for the Boys to blow a home game against a team that really isn’t all that bad.  However, Tony Romo, Jason Witten, DeMarco Murray, and Dez Bryant probably won’t let that happen.  However, when you take a look at the number of points that Miami’s defense has given up the last 5 games (18, 20, 3, 9, and 8) you have to say that it’s impressive.  Dallas scored 27 points against a decent Skins defense last week, but barely beat a team that Miami handled at home the week before.  Reggie Bush should be good on the Dallas turf and Miami’s defense should be able to keep the game close.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME AT THIS TIME.  CALL 1-800-466-4748 FOR MY RELEASE ON THANKSGIVING AFTER 11 A.M.

BALTIMORE (7-3) – 3 OVER SAN FRANCISCO (9-1)(39) – For the first time in the history of the NFL, two teams with head coaches that are BROTHERS will face off in a game.  Not only are the two head coaches brothers, but their father was a college head coach and scout in the NFL also.  It doesn’t get any better than this for a proud mom and dad who will be in attendance in Baltimore tomorrow night.  After moving to the 49ers from Stanford University, Jim Harbaugh has proven to be exactly what San Francisco has needed to turn around their franchise.  Their defense has played exceptionally.  Alex Smith, who some believed would never be a good NFL quarterback is doing a great job at the helm of this offense, which runs more than they pass.  The 49ers have covered the spread all but two games this season.  They are a FORCE.  Frank Gore is a bit knicked up with a sore knee and ankle, but they have an exceptional backup RB in Kendall Hunter.  Vernon Davis is one of the top TE’s in the league.  Michael Crabtree is improving slowly and Alex Smith seems comfortable throwing to any number of different receivers on his team, including offensive linemen.  The Ravens have been inconsistent, but their defense is solid.  Ray Lewis sat out last game but did a great job of coaching from the sidelines against the Bengals.  Ray Rice has a 4.2 ypc average but needs more touches for sure.  He is also their leading receiver.  Joe Flacco has struggled at times this season and it looks like Anquan Boldin is slowed by an injury.  TE Ed Dickson out of Oregon is a solid receiver at TD and becoming a favorite of Flacco’s.  The 49ers have looked at times like world beaters and really haven’t played a bad game yet this season.  I HAVE A THEORY AND HERE IT IS!!  Look, these guys are brothers and neither one of them wants to lose, but the one brother who CAN’T AFFORD ANOTHER LOSS      is John Harbaugh.  The 49ers have all but wrapped off the NFC West and their playoff berth.  The 49ers are on a short week (so are the Ravens) and even if they have the better of the two teams, I feel that the advantage on Bird Day is with the home team.  The 49ers are UNDEFEATED on the road. I look for them to lose their second  game of the season  against the Ravens in Baltimore.   I’M GOING TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUST THE 3 POINTS TO WIN AND COVER AT A GAME THAT I WILL BE IN ATTENDANCE.  I’M LOOKING FORWARD TO SPENDING MY TURKEY DAY NIGHT WITH THE HARBAUGH FAMILY AND MAKE THAT JUST ONE MORE GREAT SPORTING EVENT I’VE BEEN AT IN MY LIFE.  3 STARS NOTHING BIG. Gonna be a big time DEFENSIVE PLAY SO HAVE FUN WITH THE UNDER TOO.