Plays for Week 4

CHICAGO -7 OVER CAROLINA (42 1/2)

Chicago has maybe THE toughest schedule in the NFL this year. Besides having to deal with Green Bay, Minnesota, and Detroit twice, they play Philly, Oakland, Tampa Bay, and San Diego. So Far, the Bears have had a rough start going up against three of the best teams in the league in Green Bay, New Orleans, and Atlanta. This week they get a reprieve. How they handle the Carolina Panthers will determine whether their season is just starting or almost over. Jay Cutler isn’t having much fun, but this week if his “offensive line” that has struggled so badly this season so far, can’t protect him and give him time to throw, people in Chicago will be making plans for an early vacation. Mike Martz is stuck between a rock and a hard place. He’d like to run more but his offensive line was outplayed last weekend against Green Bay at home. That’s understandable, but 9 runs and 43 passes isn’t what you call balance. Both Carolina AND Chicago should be able to run the ball better this week. Both QB’s have been sacked a total of 22 times in 3 games. That’s pathetic. I’M TAKING THE BEARS HERE MINUS THE POINTS BECAUSE THEY HAVE TO WIN AND THIS IS A TEAM THAT THEIR DEFENSE SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONFUSE ENOUGH TO GET SOME TURNOVERS AND WIN THE GAME BY 7 POINTS OR MORE. BEARS FOR 3 STARS HERE.

BUFFALO -3 AT CINCINNATI (44)

For those of you out there that think the Buffalo Bills aren’t good, let’s take a look at two out of three of the teams they defeated. Both Oakland AND New England have decent teams. They both will probably make the playoffs this year. Two weeks in a row, the Bills offense brought back their team when they were down by 18 points (an NFL RECORD). Cincinnati this week is an obvious trap, AND they’re at home. But they really haven’t played anyone with any talent yet. They’re STEPPING UP IN CLASS here and they have already lost to the lowly Denver Broncos and a struggling San Francisco 49ers. Buffalo’s defense is average, but they’re young and improving. Cedrick Benson is more worried about staying out of the pokie than playing football. The Bills went into Kansas City, not an easy place to play for sure, opening game and beat the Chiefs 41-7. They have no real injuries yet. I’M TAKING THE BILLS MINUS THE 3 POINTS TO BEAT THE BENGALS IN CINCINNATI BY 7-10 POINTS. I might be wrong and I might get off this game late with the right information, but right now, I love the Bills. They’re fun to watch and more importantly, fun to bet on. BILLS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS.

CLEVELAND -1 OVER TENNESSEE (38)

The over/under number of 38 should tell you all you need to know about these two teams. They both struggle on offense and only play defense better because they get more practice doing it. It’s hard for me to believe that EITHER of these two teams are going to be 3-1 at the end of this game. The Titans Matt Hasselbeck can throw the ball. He has a lot of experience behind center but this past week he lost his number 1 target in Kenny Britt for the season. They also have an all pro running back in Chris Johnson in the backfield and he SHOULD be getting his season legs under him pretty soon. However, the Titans are averaging just 2.4 yards per carry. That is the worst in the NFL after 3 weeks. The Browns give up well over 100 yards per game on the ground so maybe this is the game that the Titans get rolling with balance on offense. They certainly need it to be. The Browns after losing their opener in Cincinnati, have beaten two toothless opponents in the Dolphins and the Peyton Manning-less Colts two weeks in a row. Now they get a team that travels well and has a good defense also. Cleveland has a bye week next week and they would like nothing better than to go into the bye week with a win. Personally, I think the Titans are a better team. This game, however, in my opinion, is too close to call. I’M GONNA PASS ON THIS GAME, BUT IF YOU HELD A GUN TO MY HEAD I’D TAKE THE TITANS.

DETROIT LIONS +3 AT COWBOYS (46)

Detroit will be able to take care of Dallas on the road on a short week with a sore Tony Romo (a hero?) and a defense that sucks pretty much and destroy them in the spaceship this weekend. Matthew Stafford is NOT Rex Grossman. Let me repeat that. He is NOT Rex Grossman. I look for a big game both defensively and offensively from Jim Schwartz and his coaching staff. There’s no situation better for a team coming into Dallas than right now. They won. They’re happy. They don’t think they have a bad team now. They’re wrong. The defense for Detroit will study film of the Skins game and do it better than the Skins. This Cowboys team is going NOWHERE! Detroit, on the other hand, is still undefeated and playing some great ball on both sides of the ball. I don’t see a letdown here going into a stadium that doesn’t have a home field advantage. Skins blew it. Schwartz and the Lions will not. TAKE THE LIONS AND THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. MY PLAY OF THE WEEK IN THE NFC.

HOUSTON -4 OVER PITTSBURGH (45)

The Texans are the better team here. The big loss the Steelers had in the season opener was not an illusion. They aren’t all that good. Indy proved that this past week with a close game even though they virtually have NO offense at all. I look for the Texans to come out throwing and running with a balanced attack. If Steelers bring up safeties, they’ll get burned with great receiving corps of Houston. If they don’t bring up safeties, then Ben Tate and possibly Arian Foster will attack the line of scrimmage and get yards and control the ball. Pittsburgh has turned the ball over 10 times so far this season and only have one takeaway. Roethlisberger hasn’t said much but he’s got to be getting frustrated and he’s been sacked 9 times so far. The Steelers lost Willie Colon for the season in the opener. Last week they got 3 offensive lineman hurt and left the game. I look for the Texans to outscore the Steelers in a barnburner of a game by a score of like 38-28. Kubiak is 25-3 when the Texans run at least 30 times. TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS AND THE OVER 46 POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

NEW ORLEANS -7 AT JACKSONVILLE (45)

Look for Jacksonville rookie QB this week to come out with another week of preparation under his belt but going up against Gregg Williams’ Saints defense isn’t going to be easy for him. Last week Blaine Gabbert managed only 10 points against the Carolina Panthers, but they were playing in a monsoon. Look for them to run Maurice Jones-Drew like they did this past week. He had 122 yards on 24 carries. He’ll have to throw against the Saints also or Williams will put 8 and 9 in the box and dare him to throw. The problem Gabbert will have is that he doesn’t really HAVE any receivers. Jones-Drew should have some success running the football especially if Jonathan Vilma isn’t 100% or doesn’t play like last week. Look for New Orleans to score early and often against a Jags defense which is average at best. Drew Brees will stretch the field and score early and often and take the lead and make the rookie play catch up. That’s plan A anyway. After spotting the Texans a 10-0 lead after the first quarter last week, Brees and the Saints scored 40 points in the final 3 quarters against a better defense than Jacksonville. I’m taking the SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS AND PLAYING THE OVER 47 ½ POINTS FOR 3 STARS. I feel that Jacksonville at home will score, but not nearly enough to offset the barrage they’ll see from the Saints. It’s all about Jones-Drew and the turnovers.

PHILLY -9 OVER SAN FRANCISCO (43)

There’s still no word if Vick is playing or not, but Philly really can’t come out this week and lose at home to a team who is struggling to score points. I look for Philly, no matter who is at QB for the Eagles, to come out running the ball and moving the ball down the field in the air also. It’s been a long time since the 49ers gave up a 100 yard rusher. McCoy could be that guy though. The defense for the Eagles has been giving up bunches of yards in the air, but this is the worst quarterback they’ve faced so far in Alex Smith. However, Smith has a 90+ QB rating so he’s doing something right. Unfortunately, they’re getting no yardage on the ground with Frank Gore this year so far. The Eagles, however, and their defense are giving up 4.9 yards a pop on the ground so maybe the 49ers can control the ball and make some changes to be successful this weekend. No matter who the QB is for the Eagles, he has to be able to throw the ball successfully if the 49ers stack the line of scrimmage. This game could be a lot closer than people think. I’M GONNA PASS ON IT BECAUSE I CAN’T FIGURE OUT WHAT THE EAGLES ARE DOING THIS YEAR OR IF THEY’LL HAVE THE KIND OF SUCCESS THAT BEING A 7 POINT FAVOR NEEDS TO HAVE TO COVER…PASS.

WASHINGTON -2 OVER ST. LOUIS (43)

The Redskins blew Monday night’s game against Dallas. They were the better team. They had a one touchdown lead in the 4th quarter, and they had the better defense AND offense, and still lost. Starting safety LaRon Landry started and played well but a little rusty the other night and looks to be fine for this game. The Rams are having a real hard time keeping opposing offense from throwing the ball at will on them. They have 5 corners on their injury list. Even though their defensive front 7 is OK, they’re on the field too much and are being asked to do too much. Starting St. Louis QB Sam Bradford has been sacked 12 times so far this year and he’s not all that easy to sack. This is the last game for the Rams going into their bye week. They would like nothing better than to figure out some way to win and catching up with the Redskins on a short week may just be the dose of medicine they need. The Skins can run with Tim Hightower and Roy Helu but the Skins defensive front 7 is giving up 4.7 runs per carry so far. If Steven Jackson is available, the Skins may have some trouble keeping him from getting first downs. That should open up Bradford’s short passing game, but who’s he going to pass to?? It’s tough here not to pick the Skins since they are the better team, but anything’s possible especially with the Redskins. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.

GIANTS -2 OVER ARIZONA (44 1/2)

ATLANTA -4 ½ OVER SEATTLE (40)

To say it’s a surprise that both of these teams are 1-2 so far this season would be an understatement. If Atlanta hadn’t gutted out a game where Mike Vick got knocked out literally of a game, they wouldn’t have a win yet. Last week they lost a close one in Tampa Bay and the first week of the season they got handled easily in Chicago. Now they travel to the west coast to play a Seattle team that looked horrible the first two weeks only to come back last week and get their first win at home against a pretty average looking Arizona team. The Seahawks have been fairly tough to run against, but their secondary is giving up a 90.5 quarterback rating so far. Arizona is averaging 4.8 yards per carry but they’re throwing the ball more than half the time. Something’s got to give here this weekend. The Seahawks still suck under my rating system. Arizona doesn’t seem to travel all that well so I’m going to PASS ON THE GAME. The Falcons need the win more because in their division, they’ll have to win at least 10 games to make the playoffs. In the West, where the Seahawks fester, they can probably win 7 and win the division. Seriously…they can. PASS.

GREEN BAY -13 OVER DENVER (47)

Denver has had some problems so far this year with many things. They’ve had injuries to their defense and starting running back Knowshawn Moreno. They’ve had people in the stands screaming for Tim Tebow, even though he’s not ready to play yet. They have a new coach in John Fox, who has some latitude I’m sure in getting his “style” of ball in Denver. They’ve played three decent teams so far in Oakland, Cincinnati, and Tennessee and have had two three point games and one two point game. They go up in class here this week. Not only do they travel this week, but they’ve got maybe the best team in the NFL to play. The Packers have looked good so far but even their defense has struggled a bit with the likes of New Orleans, Carolina, and Chicago. Last week, they handled the Bears on the road . The first week of the season they barely held on to defeat a good New Orleans Saints offense and team. Carolina’s Cam Newton threw for over 400 yards against the Packer secondary albeit they were coming from behind the whole game. I find it hard to believe that the Broncos are going to be able to put up enough of a fight with all of their banged up defensive players to stay in the game with the Packers. To stay close, the Broncs will have to score and score quite a big. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS AND THE OVER 47 POINTS IN A 4 POINT EXACTA.

OAKLAND +5 OVER NEW ENGLAND (55)

Hey, I aint scared of no 55 point total. I’m taking it right now for 5 stars. I also am going to explain to you why New England should NOT be the favorite here in this game in Oakland. First of all, Oakland has a running game, and a good one. Darren McFadden and company are averaging 5.5 yards per carry with an average of almost 180 yards per game on the ground. That is unreal. They’ve done this against Denver, Buffalo, and the New York Jets defenses. They are at home where last week they defeated the Jets and looked like the Raiders of old. The problem so far with the Raiders has been their ability to stop the opposing teams from moving the football. They are giving up almost 6 yards per carry and have given up 6 touchdown passes so far this season. Jason Campbell seems to be getting plenty of time for a change in his career and is throwing the ball down the field, something he’s always been good at when he gets time. He’s only been sacked twice in three games and the Raiders defensive front has sacked the opposing quarterbacks 10 times. I’m sure Tom Brady will have a great game this coming week after throwing a career worst 4 picks last week after going out 21-0 against the Bills. Whoever has the ball last is going to win this game. Turnovers will mean quite a bit also, but I see both teams getting at least 500 yards of offense. TAKE THE RAIDERS PLUS THE POINTS AT HOME AND OVER 55 POINTS FOR 5 STARS.

MIAMI +7 OVER SAN DIEGO (46)

Alright, maybe I don’t like Norv Turner. Call it a great memory from his 7 wonderfully pitiful years here in Washington, but everyone is patting him on the back for being 2-1 because at this time last year he went to 2-5 and failed to make the playoffs even with the best offensive and defensive stats in the league. The Dolphins are struggling, but they started off with New England and Houston at home, two good teams who outplayed them and beat them in a place where they’ve lost 8 out of their last 9 games. Last week, they were in a better place for them, on the road against the Cleveland Browns and looked like they might get their first win of the season, only to give up a late touchdown to lose 17-16. Now they travel all the way across country to San Diego where they take on the Chargers, who have had injuries and seriously haven’t looked all that good. The Chargers came back and beat a struggling Minnesota team the first week at home. The next week they went to New England to get outscored by Tom Brady and New England, their defense giving up 35 points. Then last week, as 15 point favorite, they barely held on to beat a Kansas City team that will struggle to win any games at all this season. Now, the Miami Road Warriors come to town and the Chargers are giving up 9 points. Rookie running back Daniel Thomas is doing great for the Dolphins averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Chad Henne has looked good at times but has been sacked 11 times already this season. His receivers have been OK, but he really doesn’t have a go to guy. Reggie Bush has been less than effective averaging less than 3 yards per carry and 6.5 yards per reception. The good news for Miami is that All pro tight end Antonio Gates probably won’t play again this week because of a nagging foot injury. Ryan Matthews has looked OK and scored 3 touchdowns already this year. The Dolphins have played two teams better than the Chargers already this season AND as we said, they prefer to play on the road. TAKE THE 9 POINTS AND THE DOLPHINS IN THIS GAME. A GOOD HEDGE WOULD BE TO TAKE THE OVER 46 POINT TOTAL ALSO.

BALTIMORE -4 OVER JETS (43)

This Sunday night matchup is going to be good to the Ravens. This will be a game where the Ravens will dominate from the start both on offense and defense. The Jets are an overrated OK team so far this year. They really haven’t played anyone any good this year except the Raiders last week and they lost by 10. Welcome to the real world Rex. Maybe Joe Namath does know a little bit about football. The Jets got outplayed and outscored by a motivated Raider team last week and had a problem coming back. If they have problems scoring against the Raider at their place, they are damn sure going to have problems keeping up with the scoring of Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense. The Ravens are a GOOD team. I mean it. I have them rated GOOD. The Jets are rated OK. And the Ravens are at home where they play well. Ray Rice has averaged 5.7 yards a pop from scrimmage and Flacco’s thrown 7 touchdown passes in three games. The Jets defensive front 7 are giving up an average of 4.7 yards per carry. They have some starters pretty banged up after the physical Oakland game. TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. This is my play of the weekend.

TAMPA BAY -10 OVER INDY (41)

Hey, who would have thought that the Bucs would be a double digit favorite against the Indianapolis Colts this early in the season back during the summer. Nobody. Now, this is probably how this game will turn out. Tampa has a very conservative, balanced offense that really hasn’t done much but even though they’re rated OK, they come in at 2-1. The Colts have yet to win their first game this season. The Colts showed much improvement last week in staying close to the Steelers but they still were at home and couldn’t get it done. They DON’T have a starting quarterback worth talking about. They DON’T have much of a running game even though they’re averaging 4.3 yards per carry. Jospeh Adai is averaging 4.8 yards per carry and maybe they need to abandon the pass so much and work more on their running game. It looks like long time backup Curtis Painter will get the start this week, having come in and looked good after Kerry Collins had “concussion type symptoms” in the game this past week. I’M PASSING ON THE GAME BECAUSE I JUST DON’T LIKE THE GAME. Tampa doesn’t score enough for me to feel comfortable giving the 10 points. I missed my chance with Tampa last weekend against Atlanta. I liked them but was scared then too.

SUMMARY OF PICKS

BUFFALO -3 OVER CINCINNATI 4 STARS
DETROIT +3 OVER DALLAS 5 STARS
HOUSTON -4 OVER PITTSBURGH 4 STARS
OVER HOUSTON-PITTSBURGH 45 5 STARS
NEW ORLEANS -7 OVER JACKSONVILLE 4 STARS
OVER NEW ORLEANS-JAX 45 3 STARS
OAKLAND +5 OVER NEW ENGLAND 5 STARS
OVER OAKLAND-NEW ENGLAND 55 5 STARS
MINNESOTA -3 OVER KANSAS CITY 5 STARS
BALTIMORE -4 OVER JETS 5 STARS**