Plays for Week 5
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BUFFALO +3 OVER PHILLY (52)
I love the Vegas non-respect that the Bills seem to claim here and also the fact that there are too many Philly fans out there holding up the line. The Eagles are circling the wagons and the only team that can circle the wagons like nobody else are THE BUFFALO BILLS! A pretty decent Bengal team came back last week and beat the Bills to give them their lone loss of the season. This week the Bills are back home in the confines of Rich Stadium and the Bills should have enough offense to outscore an Eagles team that is having some real problems so far this year. Mike Vick still isn’t 100%. The Eagles linebackers just aren’t doing the job and they’re even having trouble with support from safeties. There should be plenty of scoring here and I feel that the crowd will pick the Bills defense up enough to beat Philly. Forget that, they’re an underdog at home. No respect. I’m taking the OVER 50 POINTS in this game because both defenses are searching for help and not getting much. The Eagles have lost 3 in a row and I can’t remember the last time Andy Reid has lost 4 in a row (someone look that up for me will you?) I’M TAKING BUFFALO PLUS THE POINTS AND THE OVER HERE. Everyone in the country is on Philly here and it makes NO SENSE. They’re not that good right now.
NEW ORLEANS -6 ½ OVER CAROLINA (51)
Carolina’s Cam Newton has the entire attention of the NFL and it’s fans after continuing to set records for rookie quarterbacks. Last week against the Bears in Chicago, the Panthers could and should have won that game. They don’t have much defense to speak of so far this season but injuries have claimed their two best players for the season. In Williams and Stewart, they have two first round draft choices in the backfield and another one taking snaps from center that just may change the way football is played in the NFL. The Saints have had some key injuries in the past couple of weeks but since losing a nailbiter to the Packers the opening game of the year, they’ve won three in a row and their offense has looked great doing so. However, Drew Brees has completed 20 passes or more in 24 straight NFL games, a new NFL record. Darren Sproles, their replacement and then some, for Reggie Bush has been unbelievable and leads the NFL in all purpose yards for the season. He leads the league in 11 catches on third down also. Nobody’s close. He also leads the team in receptions with 26 in 4 games and TE Jimmy Graham leads the receiving corps with 24 for an amazing 15.3 ypc. The key in this game is going to be which defense comes off the field more often and that’s going to be the Saints. The Carolina defense just can’t stop the run well enough and Sean Peyton will run more than he passes if they come out in the nickel. They should be able to beat the Panthers and Gregg Williams’ defense should be able to do just enough to Cam Newton and company to win. This game historically has been a game in which the visitor usually either wins or covers for some reason. I’M ONLY TAKING THE OVER 52 POINTS IN THIS GAME. CHECK THE WEATHER. LAST TIME IN CAROLINA THERE WAS A MONSOON AND THE WEATHER FORECAST WAS SUNNY AND 70.
HOUSTON -5 OVER OAKLAND (48 ½)
As we speak, bettors are HAMMERING the Raiders. The Raiders evened their record to 2-2 with a loss last week at home to New England, but they were in the game pretty much the entire way. A couple of key turnovers were the difference in the game. In four games so far, Darren McFadden is averaging 6.2 yards per carry and has rushed for over 100 yards per game. QB Jason Campbell has looked good so far this season and when he gets time, is getting the ball downfield to a variety of receivers. Surprisingly so far, the defense for the Raiders has struggled. They barely lost to the highly improved Buffalo Bills and beat the not so good Jets at home by 10. Head Coach Hue Jackson has been just what the Raiders have needed at the helm. He has them believing and they’re playing hard for 4 quarters, something they haven’t always done. The Texans, in my opinion, have improved dramatically and the difference has been Wade Phillips’ defense. Last week, they only gave up 10 points to the struggling Steelers in a big win at home, but that was something for years they just dreamed of. I like the Texans here in this game to win. The line in Vegas has moved 3 points since Wednesday and Al Davis’ death may make it move more. Personally, I know I should leave this alone. Andre Johnson is out. However, I feel that the Texans and Matt Schaub will find more targets in their receiving corps to make up for Johnson’s absence. I AM TAKING THE OVER 49 POINTS FOR 4 STARS this weekend because both teams are overdue to score more points this week. I also feel that the Texans are a GOOD football team. Oakland is just OK and on the road. They may be distracted but definitely will play hard. Key here is Matt Shaub vs. Jason Campbell. I like Campbell, but he’s no Matt Shaub. Besides, if Houston covers, Vegas wins.
INDIANAPOLIS -3 OVER KANSAS CITY (38 ½)
Indy is 0-4 and is favored by 3 points. 3 points is the home advantage minimum usually for a home team playing an NFL game. Both of these teams, according to Vegas, are EXACTLY as bad as each other. I disagree. I think that the Chiefs are TOTALLY dysfunctional. The Colts are getting better and trying harder. I also liked the way that Curtis Painter played last week. Even though he threw a lot of incomplete passes, he threw for 2 TD’s and no INT’s. This kid knows the offense. The Colts are at home in a place where with a lead, their fans will be very LOUD. KC’s Dexter McCluster is a weapon for sure. Last week, with only 10 touches, he made a big difference. Dwayne Bowe is one of the NFL’s best pass receivers and he’s hitting his stride. Cassel is using Steve Breaston as his 2nd receiver and having some success there. After a shaky start in their first two games, the Chiefs defense has settled down and played much better the last two weeks, giving up only17 points in each game. The Colts are amazingly averaging 4.1 yards per carry on the grond with a long run so far of just 18 yards. Joseph Addai is an excellent runner and is good out of the backfield catching the ball also. The Colts have played the Steelers and the Bucs tight two weeks in a row. Even though they’re on a short work week, I like the Colts getting ready for a Chiefs team that won’t have too much to throw at them and beating them for their first win of the season. If they don’t win this game, they might not have a chance to win for about a month because they hit the road and play Cincinnati, New Orleans, and Tennessee. I’M PASSING ON THIS GAME. INDY WILL PROBABLY WIN BUT I CAN’T BE SURE.
JACKSONVILLE PICK OVER CINCINNATI (37)
These two teams are going in opposite directions. The Jags are a SUCK team with my rating system. They haven’t really shown anything all season so far and they have their rookie QB Blaine Gabbert starting now. He has a 62.9 QB rating so far. Cincy rookie QB Andy Dalton has looked better and has a high QB rating but he also has a head coach who knows how to make a QB look bad. The Bengals just beat the Bills at home and played well. Their defense has performed well all season long except in Denver. Jacksonville is averaging less than 10 points per game. Carolina’s defense held them to 10 points and the Panthers defense is not very good. Of course, that was in a monsoon, so we can throw that out. Rookie QB Blaine Gabbert is completing les than 50% of his passes. Rookie QB Andy Dalton of Cincinnati looks much better and has A.J. Green and TE Gresham to throw to. He also has Cedrick Benson to hand the ball off to. Maurice Jones-Drew of Jacksonville is averaging 5.1 yard per carry so they will try to slow the game down and keep the Bengals offense off the field. The Benglas are 2-2 but could easily be 4-0. I was surprised when Jack Del Rio was brought back to coach the Jags at the end of last season. I see no way these guys win more than 4 games all year. Bad decision by the owners of the Jags. We have a lame duck situation in Jacksonville and it’s going to trickle down to the players and may have already. TAKE THE BENGALS HERE FOR 3 STARS. BENGALS ARE A MUCH BETTER TEAM HERE.
VIKINGS -3 OVER ARIZONA (45 ½)
Vikings are coming off their 4th loss in a row against THE WORST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE, THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS. The Chiefs are terrible and Minnesota should have been able to handle them at home. They didn’t. If the Vikings DON’T beat the Cardinals at home this weekend, changes will be made and that will probably be Donovan McNabb giving up his starting QB position to the rookie from Florida State, Christian Ponder, who can play by the way. The Cards should have a tough time running the football against the Vikings, meaning Kevin Kolb will be throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, Early Doucet, and Todd Heap to move the football. The Cardinals don’t travel well, having lost already this season on the road to Washington and the lowly Seattle Seahawks. Minnesota’s best corner Antoine Winfield is out for the game with a bad neck. This game is too close to call and so far this season, Minnesota hasn’t figured out how to play a complete game. Cincinnati is clearly the better team here, but I don’t trust the play. PASS ON THIS DAMN GAME.
GIANTS -9 ½ OVER SEATTLE (43)
Eli Manning and the Giants have won 3 in a row. Against the lowly Rams, they looked terrible but won by 12. Next week they knocked Mike Vick out of the game and beat a struggling Eagles team by 13. Last week against Arizona, they came from behind and beat a struggling Cardinal team by 4. Almost let that one get away. When the Giants are in the red zone, they score (8 out of 10 trips inside the 20). They’ve only kicked one field goal all season long which is good AND bad. With Peyton Manning on the sidelines this season, Eli has thrown for a 105.6 QB rating, throwing 8 TD’s and only 2 INT’s. He has been sacked 11 times though. That needs to improve. Defensively, the Giants defensive backfield and pass rush is giving up only a 76.7 QB rating to opposing QB’s. Amazingly enough, the new Giants offensive line has only allowed their good running back tandem of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs to rush for 3.3 yards per carry. Jacobs is probably out this week with a bad knee. So is Justin Tuck again. The thing I like about this Giants team is that it reminds me exactly of the team that won the Super Bowl. The Seahawks will be hard to run against. That means that Eli will have to throw to score probably. The Seahawks, I have rated as a SUCK team. Seahawks QB Tavaris Jackson has played OK so far, but he’s not getting much help. They have only run the ball 80 times so far this season a 3.4 yards per carry average. Their offense has AVERAGED just 24.33 minutes in time of possession, the worst in the NFL. Surprisingly enough, their defensive front 7 has only allowed 3.2 yards per carry on an incredibly heavy 131 carries in 4 games. Their secondary is giving up an average of just under 70% completion average but not a whole lot of yardage. Their defense isn’t their problem. Their lack of offense is their problem. I look for the GIANTS here to dominate the line of scrimmage. Bradshaw and the O-line need to dominate from the start. That will open up Giants receivers down the field for Eli to use his talented receivers to score. The NFC EAST is the Giants to win if they play well starting right now. After losing their opener against the Skins, they’ve run off three wins in a row. HOWEVER, THIS IS JUST THE KIND OF GAME FOR THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS THAT THE GIANTS WILL STRUGGLE TO WIN. PASS ON THIS GAME. THE GIANTS MAKE ME NERVOUS IN DOUBLE DIGIT FAVORITES AT HOME. SMELLS LIKE A TRAP AND THERE IS LATE MONEY ON SEATTLE!! PASS. DOUBLE PASS.
TENNESSEE +3 AT PITTSBURGH (38 ½)
These are two teams going in opposite directions. Big Ben has a hurt foot but will start and play this week. They have beaten two SUCK teams and lost to two GOOD teams. The Steelers will usually give you a 100% effort so what I see is a team that isn’t as talented as in years past. They are slower, older, and banged up some kind of bad. To make things even worse, their heart and soul of their defense James Harrison, maybe the biggest, baddest, linebacker they’ve ever had (sorry Jack Lambert), is out. Their defense has been playing below their usual great level and are giving up 4.8 yards per carry and an 85.2 QB rating, which is decent. The really amazing thing is that their opponents have DOUBLED their sack total and the Steelers secondary HAS NO INTERCEPTIONS SO FAR. Steelers run defense is horrible. Last year, Steelers run defense led the league with 62.8 yards per game. This year, they’ve average so far 119.5. That is scary. Now Harrison is down for the year. Tennessee, on the other hand, is improving and the transition to Mike Munchak as head coach has been smooth to say the least. QB Matt Hasselbeck is throwing at a 104.7 QB rating clip and 128.9 in the RED ZONE, which is awesome considering he doesn’t have any real name receivers healthy after Kenny Britt went down with an injury. All Pro Chris Johnson after signing a new contract, has started to show signs of getting in game shape and should start being a big difference for the running game. The Titans should be able to shut down the Steelers running game, even though the Steelers are getting a couple of starting offensive linemen back this week. The Steelers will probably have a problem with C.J. this week, which will force a lot of defensive 8 and 9 man fronts. If this happens, look for Hasselbeck to use play action and throw down field to Washington or TE Cook. Big Ben is going to be 70 or 80% maybe and even though they’re at home, I see Tennessee coming into town and possibly pulling off an upset. If the Steelers win here, they’ve got a shot. If they lose, their season is over in my opinion. I LIKE TENNESSEE HERE, BUT IT’S TOO CLOSE TO CALL. LEAVE IT THE HELL ALONE.
TAMPA BAY +3 OVER SAN FRANCISCO (41 ½)
Who would have thought that the Bucs and 49ers would be a combined 6-2 going into week 5 this season? Not me. However, the 49ers are in the NFC West and I’ve gone on the record and said that 7-9 would win the West this season. If that’s true, and the 49ers can hold serve at home this weekend, they could just be 3 wins away from the playoffs. That’s if you believe ME! Anyway, the only 49er loss was to Tony Romo and the Cowboys in overtime or they’d be 4-0. Harbaugh is a Harbaugh and he knows how to win. They have a long way to go, but they’re headed in the right direction. 49we NT Isaac Sopoaugo has a staph infection and may be out. He’s a stud. Last season Raheem Morris, who I consider a great young coach, had his Bucs at 10-6 already headed in the right direction. They lost their home opener to a very good Detroit Lions team and have won three in a row since. They travel cross country this week and will endure a good test on both sides of the ball with the 49ers. This is definitely a step up in class after beating Minnesota, a hurting Falcon team, and Indy. LeGarrette Blount is a monster running back. I’ve forgiven him for his left hook he KO’d a Boise State big mouth with back in college and was kicked out of school. He seems to be a good kid and working hard. The Bucs are pretty conservative on offense mostly because they have to be. They are averaging less than 10 yards per catch which Tom Brady is almost getting per attempt. They’re going to have to score some points to win in San Francisco this weekend. If they can’t, look for Alex Smith to have a big day against the suspect defensive backfield of the Bucs. The pass rush of the Buccaneers may be the key to keeping them in the game. Alex Smith has been sacked 14 times already this season. I also look for the 49er defense to come up strong and shut down the Tampa Bay offense by making them throw the football. Quarterback Josh Freeman and his ability to use his legs to get first downs may be the difference in the game. Whoever wins this game may be well on their way to a good season and possibly the playoffs. The line has moved to 3 points late. Normally, this would be a great spot for San Francisco, but these two teams are so close and Tampa Bay has shown much better on the road as of late so I’M PASSING ON THIS GAME COMPLETELY. JUST ENJOY IT AND WATCH IT.
DENVER +3 ½ OVER SAN DIEGO (46)
May be my total play of the year this week. Both teams can’t stop the pass. Denver’s going after an NFL record if they keep up what they’re NOT doing on defense which is covering anyone. They’ve given up a 110.7 QB rating AVERAGE so far this season. Sure, Champ Bailey’s been out and they’ve had their share of injuries, but damn, that sucks. I hate to ruin everyone’s day that thinks the Chargers are good, but they’re not. I have them ranked as just OK. They’ve beaten teams with a combined record of 1-11. New England handled them by 14 at home. Denver is pretty damn bad though. It’s a good thing the Broncos signed Willis McGahee or they’d have NO running game at all. He’s doing a pretty good job so far but he’s just averaging 3.8 yards per carry. Kyle Orton is hearing chants for Tebow from EVERYONE it seems even though Tebow won’t be able to help much with this offense. Edddie Royal has been out virtually all season long so far and has caught a grand total of 4 passes. Knowshawn Moreno has been hurt all season. Brandon Lloyd in 4 games has 18 catches for an average of 14.6 yards per catch. The Chargers lost their other road game so far this season and I look for a much closer game than people think. Good thing Vegas isn’t as high on the Chargers as all the “experts” are. I think they’re average at best. I’d love to see Denver win this game, but I’ll just figure that Rivers and Orton will go after each other for 60 minutes and if the weather’s OK and the wind isn’t too strong, it will be a 41-38 game and I won’t care who wins. TAKE THE OVER 46 FOR THE MORTGAGE PAYMENT I have Denver winning 4 games this season. 5 if they win this one. I have Chargers winning 7. 8 if they win this one.
NEW ENGLAND -7 ½ OVER JETS (49 ½)
This is going to be one hell of a game to watch in my opinon. How the Jets come back after two straight road losses will tell me whether they have any chance at all in the AFC East this season. They are beat up. No question. But they need to do a better job on the offensive side of the ball to keep their defense, which is pretty damn good, off the field. Last week the Ravens jumped out to an early lead and were able to hold on. The week before, the same thing happened in Oakland. Now they play a team that absolutely hates them, the New England Patriots. The Pats are still pissed about letting Buffalo come back and beat them two weeks ago. This is NOT a good defensive team in New England. They are putting a defense together with duck tape each week and adding players all the time. They lost Jerod Mayo last week for the season. They should get Albert Haynesworth back this week to help shore up the middle of the line. If the Jets can get some balance to their attack and be able to throw the ball downfield, then this could be a very close game. They should be able to run the football. The only team that the Jets have faced so far this year with a good passing game was the Cowboys, who had them beat early and let the Jets come back and win. I see a lot of points being scored in this game no matter what happens. If the Jets jump out to an early lead, they won’t be able to keep Brady and the offense from coming back. Vice versa, the Jets only answer would be in the air, which the Pats can be vulnerable to. I’M TAKING THE OVER 49 POINTS FOR 5 STARS THIS WEEK AND TEASING IT TO DEATH WITH A THREE TEAMER.
GREEN BAY -5 ½ AT ATLANTA (53 ½)
This is a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game in Atlanta which the Packers won 48-21 in pretty much a blowout. I don’t see a thing changing here. Atlanta, if anything, isn’t the team they were last year. For whatever reason, they’ve struggled to move the football like they did last year even at home, and their defense has given up big chunks of yardage even to the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears, both teams who are not good. The Packers are playing better than anyone in the NFL right now and Aaron Rodgers has some unbelievable QB rating of 130+ indoors. I look for him to absolutely cut up the Atlanta defense early and the Packer defense to control the line of scrimmage and shut down most of the Falcon passing game. That will be the key. The pressure created on both sides of the ball rushing the passer. The Atlanta Falcons defense has just 5 sacks in 4 games. Not much pressure really. The Packers, even though their numbers are down a bit this year, have 11. Matt Ryan has been sacked 13 times to Aaron Rodgers 7. This game will not be a very good opportunity for Atlanta to win unless they can control the ball and the agenda on the ground with their running game, which hasn’t really shown up this year. Michael Turner looks a step or two slow when he takes the ball this year. Maybe it’s the blocking. Look for Dom Capers and the Packers defense to make life miserable again for Ryan and the Falcons offense. League MVP Aaron Rodgers should have another great game indoors. TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. LEAVE THE TOTAL ALONE. NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE AS US MUCH SCORING AS EVERYONE THINKS.
DETROIT -5 OVER CHICAGO (47 ½)
A lot of people have thought I’m crazy so far this year, releasing the Lions all the time. Hey, I love Jim Schwartz, and I love what’s he’s doing with his team. They have some holes here and there, but their defense is doing just enough to get them wins with their potent offense. Matthew Stafford has a 100.3 QB rating and Javid Best is getting just enough yardage on the ground to keep opposing defenses honest. They’re also utilizing their soon to be All Pro TE Brandon Pettigrew in the short passing game to go along with Calvin Johnson’s 8 touchdowns when it’s needed. The Bears are struggling, to say the least. They’re playing maybe the toughest schedule so far in the entire NFL, but going to Detroit on Monday night in front of all those crazy ass fans isn’t going to help them at all. Cutler has a hard time staying on his feet at home, let alone on the road where hearing the snap count is a problem. He’s been sacked 15 times. Their offensive line is terrible. Compare that to only 5 sacks of Matthew Stafford. I have the Bears rated as a SUCK team right now, and even though they’re 2-2, in my opinion, they were lucky to win last week against Carolina, who made it tough on their defense especially. With a win here next Monday night, the Lions actually have a chance to be 8-0 at their Bye Week break. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE INCREDIBLY LOW 5 POINTS FOR 5 STARS AND MAKE IT MY NFC PLAY OF THE WEEK. I’M ALSO TAKING THE OVER BECAUSE IT’S MONDAY NIGHT!! Remember, Detroit 8-0 at the bye week this year and a playoff team.
SUMMARY
BUFFALO +3 OVER PHILLY 5
OVER 52 PHILLY-BUFFALO 5
HOUSTON -5 OVER OAKLAND 4
OVER 48 ½ HOU-OAKLAND 4
N.ENGLAND -7 ½ OVER JETS 4
OVER 49 ½ N.E.-JETS 5
G.BAY -5 ½ OVER ATLANTA 5
OVER 47 ½ DETROIT-CHI 4
CINCY PICK OVER JAX 4
OVER 46 DENVER-S.D. 5
DETROIT -5 OVER CHICAGO 5