Plays for Week 6

DETROIT -4 OVER SAN FRANCISCO (46)

Two teams going in the right direction. Last year at this time both teams were a combined 1-9. This year just the opposite 9-1. Detroit is undefeated and having won 9 games in a row going back to last season. San Francisco is the favorite now to win the weak NFC West with a 4-1 record and undefeated on the road. Two great coaches who will be around for a long time. Jim Schwartz has Detroit so confident they should win 11 games to make the playoffs as a wild card. NOBODY in the North is going to stay with Green Bay, but if anyone can, it’s the Lions. If Nick Fairley is healthy, nobody is going to be able to deal with the front defensive line of Detroit. Matt Stafford is doing a good job of putting points on the board for the offense. Jim Harbaugh has confidence in Alex Smith and it’s showing. His QB rating is 100 now and they can run and throw the ball and control the clock. Against a decent defense in Tampa last week, the 49ers rushed for 213 yards. Their defense after the first five games leads the NFL. Ford Field creates some problems for visitors with its noise level but if anyone can stay with the Lions right now it’s the 49ers. I’m going to pass on this game even though you have to like the LIONS here. San Francisco is coming off a huge home win. PASS ON THIS GAME..TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

GREEN BAY -14 OVER ST. LOUIS (47 ½ )

The Packers are the best team in the league. St. Louis may be the worst team in the league. St. Louis can’t cover anyone in their secondary. Against the BEST teams in football, Green Bay can move the ball in the air and on the ground. However, Steven Jackson is finally HEALTHY after pulling a quad on his first touch of the season, a long run for a TD opening day. Why waste too much time breaking down this game. It would be easy to leave the game alone with the 14 points. However, TAKE GREEN BAY MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. I’D BE SURPRISED IF THE PACKERS DON’T COME OUT AND PUT A 50 BURGER ON THE RAMS AT HOME. TAKE THE PACKERS FOR 5 STARS MINUS THE HUGE AMOUNT OF POINTS. Leave the total alone. It’s ridiculous that the Packers receivers are bitching about not getting enough passes thrown at them. I can see Green Bay taking the Rams for granted here, but I’m giving the points anyway.

ATLANTA – 3 ½ OVER CAROLINA (50 ½ )

Two teams going in different directions. Carolina with Cam Newton leading their offense are a team in transition but can score on offense in the air and on the ground. Their defense is killing them. Their linebacking corps doesn’t tackle very well and their secondary is pretty bad. They are giving up a 99.6 QB rating and 4.9 yards per carry. Atlanta is struggling with a 2-3 record. This game could bite them in the ass if they don’t figure out a way to outscore the Panthers. The Falcons should be able to move the ball on the Panthers defense and the Panthers will may have some trouble running the football against the Falcons. The Saints controlled the clock and threw the ball with efficiency against the Panthers last week, even though the Carolina rushed for 162 yards. If the Panthers convert on a 3rd and 2 from near midfield in the 4th quarter with the lead, the game is probably over. They just haven’t figured out how to put teams away yet. Ron Rivera has the Panthers close to where they want to be. If the Falcons show any signs of not being ready for this game, they could lose it and quick. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME. THE OVER WITH GOOD WEATHER IS A MILD PLAY.

CINCINNATI -6 ½ OVER INDY (40 ½ )

The Bengals came back last week to beat a struggling Jacksonville team on the road 30-20. Andy Dalton is doing a good job in his rookie year at QB. Curtis Painter will get the start for Indy and is improving every game. I’m not sure if Indy is ready to go into Cincy and beat the Bengals at this point in the season. They may NEVER win a game this season. If they don’t, I know a good Stanford quarterback that would look good in royal and blue!! Andrew Luck baby!! Unless the Bengals completely let down here, they should come out with a W. However, I feel that the Colts will stay with the Bengals and possibly make this a close game. I’m going to PASS ON THIS GAME even though the Cincinnati defense is much better than the Colts offense. PASS.

GIANTS -3 ½ OVER BUFFALO (50)

We were all over the fact that the Giants at home are not as good as they are on the road. Now, the upstart and talented Buffalo Bills come to the Meadowlands and will be ready for whatever the Giants have in the tank for them. Buffalo’s head coach Chan Gailey has been in New York a few times and had some luck winning games there. I knew that Eli Manning would be able to throw the ball against the Seahawks and did. He threw for 420 yards, but he had 3 horrible picks to come back and bite him in the ass. They were NOT able to run the ball against the Seahawks and Brandon Jacobs was out for the game. Philly had almost 500 total yards but made so many mistakes they had no chance to win the game. Having said that, the Giants should be able to score some points. If they don’t turn the ball over, they should beat the Bills. However, the only thing I’m sure of is that both offenses will be successful. I’M TAKING THE OVER 50 POINTS FOR 5 STARS. I’M PASSING ON THE STRAIGHT PLAY. It should be a great game to watch especially if you’re a Bills fan. Shawne Merriman is OUT for the game, not a good thing for the Bills.

PITTSBURGH -12 ½ OVER JACKSONVILLE (40)

The Steelers came up big at home this past week and may have turned their season around temporarily. Luckily for them, the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars are coming to town and besides Maurice Jones-Drew have no real football players to speak of. The Jags should be able to run the ball against the Steelers and have some success, but I don’t see Blaine Gabbert being able to figure out Pittsburgh’s defense and what they’ll throw at him for the entire game. The Steelers had a good game against a good Titans defense and moved the ball both on the ground and in the air and completely dominated Tennessee. This is a lot of points to give for a team that has problems on the defensive side of the ball, but things aren’t going that well with Jacksonville right now. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS.

WASHINGTON + 3 OVER PHILLY (47)

The Redskins are coming off a bye week and everyone should be healthy. The Eagles are coming off another disheartening loss in Buffalo against the Bills and are a little banged up. The Skins will be able to run and throw the ball against the Philly defense who have trouble covering and tackling. Mike Vick rushed for 90 yards and threw for 315 yards but he was picked off 4 times. Whatever is happening with their offense, it’s not all his fault. Defensively, they are giving up the big play which is not good. This is a GREAT spot for the Eagles to make the short ride down to D.C. and beat the Skins which they’ve done plenty in recent years. HOWEVER, this is not your usual Washington Redskins team. These guys believe they are good. They are playing well on both sides of the ball and if they don’t turn the ball over, they should be able to win this game. There will be so much money bet on the Eagles this week that the Skins may be the play here. As a matter of fact, the line has moved SO MUCH in the favor of the Eagles, that I’d be an idiot to not take the Skins here. First of all, they are the better team AND they are at home, AND their defense can tackle, unlike the Eagles defense. Just because the Eagles NEED to win isn’t a good enough reason to play them. 75% of the betting public has money on Philly and it’s because the NEED the game more. Bull Shit. Mike Vick or no Mike Vick, I see the Skins winning a close, high scoring game at Fed Ex Field this week to stay in the lead in the NFL East and put the Eagles where they belong….at the bottom. TAKE THE SKINS AND THE POINTS AND THE OVER FOR 4 STARS.

BALTIMORE -7 OVER HOUSTON (45)

The Texans had a chance to improve their record to 4-1 this past weekend but blew some good chances to win against the Oakland Raiders, possibly motivated by the passing of Al Davis. Whatever the reason, Houston blew a great chance to go to the lead of their division. Houston outgained the Raiders 473-278 but two big picks hurt them. The Texans match up well with the Ravens secondary with their passing game and Arian Foster will give their front 7 plenty to worry about running the football and catching the ball out of the backfield. This could be a great game. However, I think that Matt Shaub is going to struggle finding a receiver with Andre Johnson out of the game and dealing with the Ravens blitzing schemes. They historically have given Schaub trouble. The last running back to rush for over 100 yards against the Ravens was Arian Foster last season. Both teams are quick starters scoring many of their points in the first quarter. This coUld tell a big story of who wins and covers in this game. I’m taking the RAVENS minus the 7 points for 4 stars. They have shown at home they are very good this season and the Texans are probably still reeling from the big loss at home last week to the Raiders. BALTIMORE MINUS THE 7 FOR 4 STARS.

OAKLAND -6 ½ OVER CLEVELAND (44 ½ )

After going to Houston and beating the Texans at their place, now we’ll see if Oakland is still motivated enough to win in the Black Hole against a Browns team that just isn’t very good at all. Colt McCoy leads the offense for the Browns and has Peyton Hillis coming off an illness who can run the ball against almost anyone. However, I don’t see the Browns staying with the Raiders here. The Raiders should be able to move the football against a very average Browns defense. TAKE THE RAIDERS HERE MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

DALLAS +6 ½ AT NEW ENGLAND (55 ½ )

Anyone who knows me knows that I hate the Dallas Cowboys. Even so,I find it hard to believe that this won’t be the best game of the weekend. Dallas has a lot of talent especially on the offensive side of the ball. New England seems to be able to outscore anyone in the league. The Pats have won 19 games in a row at home. Tom Brady has thrown for over 300 yards 13 games in a row and the last game that he didn’t throw for 300 yards was against the Cleveland Browns and Rob Ryan was the DC that game for Cleveland. Dallas is one of those teams that seems to relax better on the road. Too much pressure and not enough of a home field advantage anymore in the spaceship they plan in might be the reason. This game will probably going to come down to turnovers and who has the ball last. I like Dallas to cover the spread here on the road. Romo should get plenty of time to throw, although I’m sure that’s something Belechick is working on as we speak. Brady should be able to throw against the Dallas defense but their run defense is tough. Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis has looked very good as of late running the ball for New England, like last week against the Jets, but he somehow injured his toe and is questionable. I just don’t think the Cowboys will have an answer for all of the receiving weapons that the Pats will throw at them. The Cowboys have only picked off only 4 passes all year. The Pats have picked off 7. The turnover battle will have EVERYTHING to do with who wins. Romo will probably turn the ball over more than Brady. That will be the difference in a high scoring affair. TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS AND THE OVER 55 POINTS FOR 5 STARS EACH. ONE HELL OF A FUN GAME TO WATCH FOR SURE. DALLAS NEEDS THE WIN BADLY.

TAMPA BAY +6 OVER NEW ORLEANS (49 ½)

Last week the Saints were lucky to win against the Carolina Panthers. They can score on offense behind Brees and Peyton calling the plays but they struggle against the run defensively. The problem this week is LeGarrette Blount’s OUT for this week’s game for Tampa Bay. That will hurt the Bucs terribly. Not having the physical play of Blount makes it even HARDER for Josh Freeman to do any harm with his already weak passing game. The Bucs, on the other hand, give up an AVERAGE of 99.9 QB rating so far this season which doesn’t bode well going up against Brees this week. The last two years the Saints have crushed the Bucs at home by a combined score of 69-13. Breen is thrown for 6 touchdowns and just one interception at Raymond James Stadium the past two years. Tampa needs the game badly but they’re too banged up and facing a team that is going to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the South NFC division. TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

MINNESOTA +2 ½ AT CHICAGO (41 ½)

The Vikings seem to be solving some of their problems with a big win at home last week against the punchless Arizona Cardinals. The Vikings can and will run almost at will against the Bears who have given up a whopping 5.7 yards per carry so far this season. The Vikings only give up 3.3 yards per carry on defense and the defensive secondary isn’t bad. Chicago is horrible so far. Their defense gives up big play after big play. The Vikings front 7 has 16 sacks so far this season and the Bears have had Cutler sacked a league leading 18 times. After going to Detroit on Monday and getting thrashed by the Lions defense, and also being on a short week, I lookm for the Bears to get beat by a Viking team that has played everyone tough so far this season, only to lose late in the games. TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE 3 FOR 4 STARS. They are the better team here and historically haven’t done well at Soldier Field but this isn’t the MONSTERS OF THE MIDWAY that we’re used to seeing.

JETS -6 ½ AT MIAMI (42 ½)

Hey Tony Sparano is 3-0 lifetime against New York teams!! Maybe his last name IS SOPRANO. However, the Jets have lost three in a row and SHOULD have lost their opener which would have made them 1-4 at this point in the season. Matt Moore is the 16th QB to start for the Dolphins since 2000. According to Rex, the Jets are going to still win the Super Bowl. I…don’t think so. Their defense is decent still, but their offense is pretty soft. They can’t run the ball with any success and their passing game will suck as long as Sanchez is their leader. But here’s the good news. THEY PLAY THE DOLPHINS THIS WEEKEND!! The Dolphins have no intent on screwing up their chances of getting the first pick in next year’s draft and taking Andrew Luck, who will become their “franchise” quarterback. They are coming off a bye week and should be pretty healthy for a change BUT I don’t see that happening on Monday night in New York. Even Sanchez should be able to move the football through the air against the porous Dolphin defensive backfield. They have given up a 105.4 QB rating AVERAGE so far this season. That may make even Sanchez look good. WR Brandon Jacobs who admittedly has behavior problems has promised to come out with his “INNER BEAST” this weekend on Monday Night Football. I’m laying even money that his “INNER BEAST” has shitty hands too. TAKE THE JETS MINUS THE POINTS AGAINST ONE OF THE LEADERS IN THE ANDREW LUCK POOL FOR 4 STARS. MIAMI SUCKS. THEY REALLY SUCK.

SUMMARY

GREEN BAY -14 OVER ST. LOUIS 3 SKINS-PHILLY OVER 47 5 BALTIMORE -7 OVER HOUSTON 4 GIANTS-BUFFALO OVER 49 1/2 4 OAKLAND – 6 ½ OVER CLEVELAND 3 ATL-CAROLINA OVER 50 ½ 4 DALLAS +6 ½ OVER NEW ENGLAND 4 DALLAS-N. E. OVER 55 ½ 5 MINNY +2 ½ OVER CHICAGO 3 JETS- 6 ½ OVER MIAMI 4 NEW ORLEANS -6 ½ OVER T. BAY 3 REDSKINS +3 OVER PHILLY 3