Plays for Week 7

WASHINGTON (3-2 ) +2 AT CAROLINA (1-5) (43 ½)

Both of these teams are coming off loses and both need a win in the worst way this week. After a horrific game throwing the football, Rex Grossman is sitting down and John Beck is starting at QB for the Redskins this week. Beck was almost the favorite in the preseason only to lose the QB competition at the end of the preseason after having a bad game in the last game. Beck gives the Skins a better arm, more athleticism, but virtually NO experience. He hasn’t played since 2006 when he was a 2nd round draft choice out of BYU. People that actually SAW him play said he is good, so they have THAT going for them. He couldn’t pick a better time or team to start against because the Panthers pass defense has been almost non-existent. The Redskins had three major injuries to their offensive line last week (including Chris Cooley) and it may be a good time to be breaking in new linemen on the left side with a quicker QB in Beck this week. Their two backup OLinemen have NEVER taken an NFL snap during a game. Only Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady have thrown for more yardage than rookie Cam Newton of Carolina. He has thrown for 7 TD’s and rushed for another 6. He has resurrected the career of Steve Smith. The Skins play pretty good pass defense and have 17 sacks. They can pressure the QB without blitzing usually, so Carolina is going to have to establish the run to be successful throwing the ball. Last week, Mike Vick took off a few times and made a big difference in the game. Cam Newton can maybe do the same. Inside the red zone the Skins will have to “spy” Newton because he’s their best chance so far this year of scoring. The problem with that is that Newton is bigger than Skins linebackers. I have the Redskins ranked OK and the Panthers ranked OK—but they are at home. I’m going to pass on this game because it might take the Redskins new QB a game or two to get his game legs underneath him. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME AND THE TOTAL AND PRAY FOR THE SKINS! If you held a gun to my head, I take the Panthers.

CLEVELAND (2-3) -3 OVER SEATTLE (2-3) (41)

To say this game sucks is an understatement. The only reason I even care about it at all is because I listen to Kiley and Booms in Cleveland every morning and there it’s a soap opera with Holmgren, Shurmur, McCoy, and Peyton Hillis as the stars. After losing their first two games of the season against San Francisco and Pittsburgh, Seattle has won 2 out of 3 and almost 3 in a row before the bye week. They’re not sure if their starting QB Tavaris Jackson will be ready to play on Sunday, but they sure hope so. If not, capable backup Charlie Whitehurst will fill in again. Seattle has been somewhat of a surprise so far. They went into New York a little over a week ago and beat the Giants in their place. (I predicted that) That means they can travel. Now they go into Cleveland where there are many problems. Evidently, Peyton Hillis is dinged up with a hamstring pull but played a few snaps this past weekend. Then he was pulled from the game and depending on who you listen to, it was a coaches’ decision or he was injured. Cleveland QB Colt McCoy isn’t doing terrible, but he has no real arm strength and really, besides Josh Cribbs, has no downfield threat to open up the passing game. They’re averaging 3.3 yards per carry on the ground and just 9.9 yards per catch. That’s the lowest in the entire league. The Browns go on the road after this weekend to San Francisco and Houston and probably will be huge underdogs in both cities, so this week’s game is one they absolutely need to win. The Seahawks are EXTREMELY hard to run against so I figure Cleveland will probably come out throwing, and hopefully Hillis will be able to play. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME JUST BECAUSE IT’S SUCH A TOSSUP. I HAVE BOTH TEAMS RATED AS OK–. The winner will still have a shot this year for the playoffs. The loser, not so much. PASS.

DETROIT (5-1) -3 ½ OVER ATLANTA (3-3) (43 ½)

Detroit is coming off an emotional loss at home to San Francisco and the “hard handshake” game. Jim Harbaugh is a freak for sure, and evidently nobody told Jim Schwartz about it before the game. Detroit needs to get rolling asap this week against an Atlanta team that really has struggled compared to last year when they were 13-3 and hosted the first playoff game. I like Detroit here but the more I look at the game and their team right now, the more I might take a powder on this one. They’re for real and they have some playmakers on their team. Atlanta does too, but they’ve struggled so far this year. Detroit QB Matt Stafford so far has a QB rating of 98.7 with 15 TD’s and only 4 interceptions. They’ve struggled most of the season so far running the football and Javid Best, their best RB is out with a concussion this week. A trade for Ronnie Brown was nixed when the Detroit running back was found to have a brain tumor. Calvin Johnson has 9 TD’s so far this season leading the league and is maybe the best receiver in the league. He almost ALWAYS is double-teamed and when he’s not, Stafford just throws it up for him and he brings it down. I look for Atlanta to take him out of the game and make the Lions run the football more. Atlanta’s QB, Matt Ryan is struggling compared to last year and even though they won last week against Carolina, he’s still not really gotten comfortable this year in the pocket. The Falcons are one of the most penalized teams in the league and last year they were the least penalized. Michael Turner got the ball 27 times and ran for 139 yards last week so they look to be figuring something out on their offense. The Lions have given up 777 yards from scrimmage in 6 games so far this season and I look for the Falcons to make their weak run defense work extra hard with Michael Turner running it right down their throat. That will open up the throwing lanes for Matt Ryan to throw to Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. Julio Jones is still out. The home crowd in Detroit will be loud and it will be hard for the Falcons to make changes at the line of scrimmage. A lot of early money has been bet on Atlanta, probably because of the injury to Best, but I think that Detrot has something to prove here. They need to win at home to bounce back after that heartbreaking loss last week. I HAVE DETROIT RATED AS A GOOD TEAM AND THE FALCONS RATED AS JUST AN OK TEAM. The Falcons are on the road and Detroit should cover. HOWEVER, I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE IT FEELS LIKE A BIT OF A TRAP. NFL SMELLS THAT WAY SOMETIMES.

MIAMI (0-5) -1 OVER DENVER (1-4) (41½)

Wow, and I thought that the Cleveland-Seattle game sucked. I was wrong. Two teams that at one time USED to be two of the best teams in the league. Now they have a combined 1-9 record. But there’s a bonus here this weekend. TIM TEBOW IS PLAYING. TIM TEBOW IS PLAYING. TIME TEBOW IS PLAYING. Get the picture. This kid could run for president if he was 35 years old and get elected. He gives new meaning to the words “All American boy”. Hell, he’s a virgin still I think! Anyway, after struggling in their first 4 plus games, TIM TEBOW came in two weeks ago and almost pulled out a victory against the San Diego Chargers. Now he returns to the state of Florida, where he is probably the one person in the state that EVERYONE can recognize. He was more popular than anyone AND he was a three or four time All-American QB at the University of Florida. I’m betting that this game will be a true sellout, something that rarely happens where the Dolphins play anymore. From what I understand, they’re honoring the University of Florida National Champions from 2 years ago before the game. Wow! Talk about a PR nightmare for the Dolphins. At least they’ll sell their seats for the game! Tony Sparano is 0-5 and about to be fired soon. Denver matches up well with the lowly Dolphins. Miami historically hasn’t played well at home anyway, and now that the entire stadium is going to be cheering for TIM TEBOW from start to finish, I don’t see any way they can keep from being beaten and humiliated on Sunday. The Dolphins give up a 103.9 QB rating average and the Broncos give up a 106.5 rating. Matt Moore, unfortunately for the Dolphins, has a 52.8 rating. Tebow, in his short, stint as a QB, has a 101.7 rating. I’M PLAYING TWO PLAYS HERE. I’M TAKING DENVER PLUS OR MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. I’M TAKING THE OVER FOR 5 STARS BECAUSE NEITHER PASS DEFENSE IS ANY GOOD AT ALL. When the Miami linebackers drop into pass coverage or the Dolphins bring in their nickel defense, they’ll have to tackle TIM TEBOW!! That won’t be easy.

SAN DIEGO (4-1) -1 AT JETS (3-3) (43 ½ )

I’m not really sure how the spread got so inflated on the Chargers here. I guess finally people started listening to me and figuring it out that the Jets weren’t that good after all. Did Chuck Noll suddenly become head coach of the Chargers? Anyway, I like it this way. What I don’t like is Rex coming out saying this week that if he had gotten the job in San Diego when he interviewed a few years ago, he’s have a couple of Super Bowl rings by now. Who knows? Maybe he would, but I doubt it. Norv came back with some stupid statement about Ryan not having the rings he GUARANTEED the last couple of years, but HEY NORV..AT LEAST HE MADE IT TO THE PLAYOFFS!! The Chargers have started with a 4-1 record off the bat this year and that is something they aren’t used to doing under Norv. Their wins have come against teams with a combined record so far this season of 4-13, so let’s not get too excited. When they played a good team (New England), they lost by two touchdowns. Phillip Rivers has been struggling this year without his usual cast of pro bowl receivers although injuries and holdouts have slowed them down a bit. In 5 games he’s been sacked 13 times which is a lot for him. Ryan Matthews has improved and is averaging 4.9 yards a carry. His leading receiver is a running back. Rivers has thrown 6 TD’s and 7 picks which isn’t very Phillip Rivers like. They have found a free agent place kicker who has hit everything he’s tried, Nick Novak over the University of Maryland. The Redskins had him but like most of their good players, they cut him. On the other side of the ball, the Jets are struggling on offense. They’re working on a short week having won big at home on Monday night against a winless Miami. They didn’t look so bad in that game, but it was Miami. QB Mark Sanchez has struggled at times but looked much better the other night as he got more time to throw. The Jets are only averaging 3.3 yards per carry but they’ve had some injuries to their OL. I’m pretty sure that LaDanian Tomlinson will be up for this game against his former team that gave up on him. The Jets have played much better teams so far this season having gone up against the likes of Dallas, Oakland, Baltimore, and New England. They played New England much tougher than the Chargers did. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE JETS AT HOME AGAINST A TEAM THAT’S TRAVELING ACROSS COUNTRY AND COACHED BY NORV TURNER. TAKE OR GIVE THE POINTS BUT MAKE SURE YOU TAKE THE JETS FOR 4 STARS. I could be wrong but this game is HUGE for Jets. Not so much for overrated Chargers.

CHICAGO (3-3) -1 OVER TAMPA BAY (4-2) (41)

This game is being played in London at Wembley Stadium, where the London Monarchs won the World League of American Football Title in really it’s only good year ever, it’s first. I’ve called this game before but I can’t really remember a closer toss up to call ever overseas than this one. This game could come down to anything. Food poisoning. How good of a bed are you sleeping in? Who stays out the longest? Who brings their wives with them? Who doesn’t bring their wives with them? All kinds of things. Plane delays. Weather. Everything. I’M GONG TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE EVEN IF IT WAS PLAYED HERE IN THE STATES, IT WOULD PROBABLY BE TOO CLOSE TO CALL. PASS. I still can’t figure out why we send one game over there every year. What a waste of time for the two teams.
TENNESSEE (3-2) -3 OVER HOUSTON (3-3) (44 ½) – Tennessee is coming off the bye week and should be ready to give all they need to beat a “beat up” Houston team who is playing without their two best players. Matt Hasselbeck has proven already to be the leader the Titans needed for their offense. Chris Johnson should be ready after the two week break to give them the kind of running game they need from him finally. Matt Shaub of Houston had several “check ups” this week to see if he was even ready to play on Sunday. From what I hear, he’s going to start, but he’s definitely not 100%. After losing opening day to a pretty lousy Jacksonville team, Tennessee has righted their ship and immediately beat the Ravens, who beat the Texans last week by almost the same score. The Texans still have their two best players out so I’M TAKING THE TITANS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS. I think Houston will struggle AGAIN, even with the Colts out of the picture, to make the playoffs. They are the favorite, but they need to get healthy and they need to play better. The three decent teams they’ve played so far this season beat them. Some things change and some things stay the same. Kubiak’s coaching staff seems to have stayed the same. TITANS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

PITTSBURGH (4-2) -4 OVER ARIZONA (1-4) (43 ½ )

The Steelers seem to be improving even though they’ve played all season long with a patchwork offensive line. Injuries decimated their line and several members of their receiving corps have been dinged up. Ben has practiced in a walking boot from time to time so he’s not 100%. He’s toughed it out pretty well this year and seems to be getting healthier. The Cardinals have struggled losing 4 in a row since winning opening day against the Carolina Panthers in Cam Newton’s opener. Their running game has been OK with Beanie Wells, but they’ve been inconsistent. Larry Fitzgerald may very well be the best receiver in the league but there’s really not much else there to take away double teams. TE Todd Heap only has 13 receptions in 5 games but he’s supposed to play. Fitzgerald only has 2 TD’s. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt is patient, but it must be getting frustrating for him. They go this week against his former team he and Russ Grimm coached for several years and they’ll do all they can to play their best game of the season, but can they?? Pittsburgh last week jumped out on top of the Jaguars, then didn’t score in the second half and barely held on to beat a pretty lousy Jacksonville team. I’m pretty sure that the Steelers will win here since they usually do when they travel to Arizona. LOTS OF RETIRED STEELER FANS IN ARIZONA! HOWEVER, I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME SINCE THE HOME DOGS REALLY DO NEED THE GAME IN THE WORST WAY!
OAKLAND (4-2) -4 OVER KANSAS CITY (2-3) (40 ½ ) – Jason Campbell is out for at least two months so the Raiders made a trade for Carson Palmer this past week. Kyle Boller is getting the start because the 800 page playbook of Al Saunders was a big much for Palmer to absorb in one week. I’m not sure if this is the right thing to do, but evidently Palmer is in shape, has been throwing all year long, and the sooner they get him in there the better. The Raiders sport maybe the best running back in the league so far this year, Darren McFadden, who has 610 yards so far and is a target also out of the backfield. The Raiders have only lost to Buffalo and New England and have won the games they can and should win so far. Their special teams and especially kicking teams showcasing Jacoby Ford and punter Shane Lechler has been impressive. Hue Jackson has these Raiders playing well and they are dealing with the loss of their leader, Al Davis, who passed away a week ago. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have struggled most of the season, but after looking absolutely HORRIBLE the first two games of the season and losing three of their best players for the season, they’ve played San Diego very tough, and won their last two games against two non-teams, Minnesota and Indy. They are coming off a bye week and should be healthier than they’ve been all season long. They are getting virtually no pass rush to speak of but are pretty strong on defense against the run. If they’re smart, they’ll stack the box with 8 or 9 players and force Boller to throw the football in order to move it. The Chiefs also have to get their running game going this week, so Matt Cassel can throw to his group of receivers and move the football consistently. I’M PASSING ON THIS GAME BECAUSE NOBODY REALLY KNOWS WHAT THE OAKLAND OFFENSE WILL LOOK LIKE.

DALLAS (2-3) -13 OVER ST. LOUIS (0-5) (43)

Dallas is by far one of the best 2-3 teams in the history of the NFL. They have beaten two pretty good teams in Washington and San Francisco. They BARELY lost to the Jets, Detroit, and New England on the last series’ of the game. They seriously could be 5-0. They could also be 0-5. What kind of excitement is this? Torture! Just like the San Francisco Baseball Giants!! I look at this week’s game as an opportunity for them (if they don’t let up) to DESTROY a weak and struggling Rams team that virtually have nothing on the offensive side of the ball except Steven Jackson who is averaging just over 4 yards a carry except for his first carry of the season. He is 100% now and could make a difference in the game, but I look for the Cowboys to take care of business this week. Felix Jones is out this week but DeMarco Murray and Tashard Choice will be fine when asked to run the ball or catch it out of the backfield. The Rams do NOT have a good defense. They’ve also played a very tough schedule so far with Philly, Washington, and the Giants from the East, and Baltimore and Green Bay, arguably the two best teams in the NFL. The Cowboys will not be easy either. It looks like even though he’s not 100% Sam Bradford will get the start for the Rams. He’s been the unfortunate recipient of the lousy pass blocking of the Rams that has yielded 22 sacks so far. He’s pretty banged up and probably getting a big antsy in the pocket. Personally, I’d just give Steven Jackson the ball 35 times and go from there. I look for this to happen this week with the Rams game plan. There’s nobody to throw to anyway even though they just acquired Brandon Lloyd from Denver . They have thrown 3 TD passes in 5 games. Their offense is averaging just over 8 points per game. I’m not going out on a limb to say THAT IS PATHETIC. They either need to hire a new GM or a new head coach, or BOTH. I’M TAKING THE DALLAS COWBOYS MINUS THE HUGE NUMBER FOR 4 STARS. I LOVE THIS GAME.

GREEN BAY (6-0) -9 ½ OVER MINNESOTA (1-5) (46 ½)

The Packers right now are the best team in the NFL. They haven’t lost much if anything from their Super Bowl Championship team. Their OL has been tested, but they’ve replaced injured players. They’re receivers have done a good job. Their quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, is the best QB in the league right now and barring injury, should lead his team deep into the playoffs again this season. They’ve struggled running the football at times but their downfield and intermediate passing game has provided them with all the offense the need so far. They’re defense is solid also giving up only 2 rushing TD’s so far and a 4.1 average yards per rush. They’ve given up 10 TD passes so far but have 11 picks for a defense 81.7 quarterback rating given up. The Vikings, on the other hand, have fallen a long way from their Brett Favre (speaking of Green Bay) led teams of just a couple of years ago. They still have Adrian Petersen, who is as solid of a running back as they come and this week a rookie QB will be handing the ball off to him probably 25-30 times. Christian Ponder was drafted out of Florida State and in my opinion, he is a very athletic, talented kid who should eventually turn into a decent NFL QB. However, starting his first game of his career against a Dom Capers coached World Championship defense isn’t the best of situations. But it’s probably better than having Donovan McNabb get sacked a half dozen times and throw 4 picks. Capers is going to stack the box with 8 or 9 players, constantly moving and changing looks to shut down Adrian Petersen and make the rookie throw the ball. When everyone’s covered, this kid can run the football, something that McNabb couldn’t really do anymore. Rodgers has a 122.5 QB rating which is absolutely sick. The Vikings defensive backfield is OK, but they’re no match for Rodgers and his guys. I’M TAKING THE PACKERS MINUS THE 9 POINTS INDOORS (Rodgers LOVES domes) to beat up a rookie lead Viking team. It’s not going to get better very quickly in Minnesota. Good luck Vikings!

NEW ORLEANS (4-2) – 13 ½ OVER INDIANAPOLIS (0-6) (48)

The Peytonless Colts haven’t lost by 14 points since the first game of the season this year, but if there was a time they could go down quick and hard it’s here against the Saints who lost a tough one last week in Tampa. The Colts SUCK! I don’t mean that in a bad way, just a factual way. They rate on the BHS rating system as one of the truly SUCK teams in the NFL so far this season. Joseph Addai is out for the game. They’ll have to rely on Donald Brown to get those tough yards against Gregg Williams’ defense. Curtis Painter IS throwing for a 93 QB rating but so far no wins. Drew Brees is concerned with his large number of picks and knowing him as I do (I don’t really know him personally), he’ll make changes and come out with a barrage of short and long range passes and put some real points up on the scoreboard early in the game. Sean Payton broke his leg and injured his knee last week and is up in the press box this week to call the game. Personally, I think that had a lot to do with them losing last week. Not only was it a huge diversion that probably caused his coaches and his players to worry about his health, but it probably freaking bothered him too. He’ll be ready this week but I really DON’T like the 14 points and I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME JUST BECAUSE IT IS TOO MANY DAMN POINTS. I DO LIKE THE OVER 48 POINTS HOWEVER! TAKE THE OVER 48 POINTS FOR 5 STARS.

BALTIMORE (4-1) -8 OVER JACKSONVILLE (1-5) (39)

The Ravens area a GOOD team ranked 2nd in the league in my power standings. The Jaguars have a rookie QB in Blaine Gabbert and I have them rated as a SUCK team. Even though they’re at home, there really isn’t much home field advantage to playing there in Jacksonville, otherwise known as South Georgia. They won their first game of the season by 2 points at home and have since lost 5 games in a row. The Jaguars have Maurice Jones-Drew as their big time offensive weapon and he is a bit of a freak. However, even MJD can’t do it all by himself. The Ravens defense has the ability to take away pretty much what they want with an opposing offense. I’m guessing they’re going to make Gabbert throw the ball by stacking the line of scrimmage with their nasty, tough defensive front 8 or 9 players. The Ravens are only giving up 3.3 yards per carry and a meazley 65.9 QB rating AVERAGE. That’s some good defense there. Gabbert has a 71.1 QB rating and that isn’t going to stand up too much against the Ravens pass rush. Ray Rice should be able to find some holes in a fairly tough front 7 for Jacksonville and look for Joe Flacco to open up downfield with some big gains early in the game. I’m going to take the Ravens MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS IN THIS MATCHUP.

SUMMARY

DENVER +1 OVER MIAMI 5 OVER 44 ½
DENVER-MIAMI 5
JETS +2 OVER SAN DIEGO 4 OVER 48
INDY-NEW ORLEANS 5
TENNESSEE -3 OVER HOUSTON 4
DALLAS -13 OVER ST. LOUIS 5
GREEN BAY -9 OVER MINNY 5
BALTIMORE -8 OVER JAX 4