Plays for Week 8

BALTIMORE (4-2) -13 OVER ARIZONA (1-5) (43 )

The Ravens are coming off maybe the worst offensive game I’ve ever seen them play on Monday night and Arizona comes off a home loss to the improving Pittsburgh Steelers that showed they had a lot to work on during the week. Joe Flacco was horrible but it wasn’t entirely his fault. His receivers got no separation and they weren’t able to run the football against a tough front 7 of Jacksonville. The chances of Blaine Gabbert being on the winning side of a game against the Ravens defense were like 1 in 100 but he came away with the win. The Ravens defense also had a hard time stopping Maurice Jones-Drew in the second half even though he fumbled 3 times in the first half. Arizona is having a hard time on offense period. Kevin Kolb so far hasn’t proven to be the guy they thought he was going to be but it isn’t entirely his fault. Larry Fitzgerald will always be a weapon in this offense, but not if he’s double and triple teamed all the time. Early Doucet is OK. Todd Heap has been banged up. Beanie Wells has scored 6 touchdowns and at times has looked great, but he’s banged up with a hamstring that comes and goes. They’ve had some problems in the clubhouse with attitude and things like that for the first time I can remember. The Cards defense has given up a 94 QB rating so far and that should help Flacco and Baltimore this weekend. I look for Baltimore to come out after a good week of practice and establish the run and beat the weak secondary of the Cards from the start of the game. The Ravens defense is one of the top 3 in the league. I’m going TO PASS ON THE GAME BECAUSE 13 POINTS FOR THIS RAVENS OFFENSE IS JUST TOO MANY! All of a sudden, I’m not really sure what their offense looks like.

CAROLINA (2-5) -3 ½ OVER MINNESOTA (1-6) (47)

Carolina and their rookie star QB Cam Newton are fresh of beating a Redskins team that is headed the wrong direction fast. Cam didn’t throw for the yardage he has so far this season, but he didn’t turn the ball over and looked great with his decision making. D’Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart both looked great running the football. Newton himself has run for 7 touchdowns this season and thrown for another 8. The Panther defense leaves a lot to be desired but they are improving. I liked what I saw in Charlotte last week with the Panthers. The Vikings started their first round draft pick Christian Ponder from Florida State last week and although his completion percentage was low, he showed leadership qualities that haven’t been seen this year so far with Donovan McNabb. I love this kid and he has a future in the NFL. Adrian Peterson has scored 8 touchdowns so far this season and rushed for 712 yards for a 4.9 yard average. He is a force that Carolina will have to prepare for. I doubt they’ll stop him. If they do, it will open up the passing lanes for the rookie Ponder and he may have a big day. I like the OVER in this game because both teams should be able to score. Matching these two rookies up in this game to me is going to make for a very interesting projection into the future of both of these teams. Whoever has the best defense, and usually that’s Minnesota, may very well win the game. Minnesota, however will have to make sure they have a plan for limiting Newton’s favorite target, All Pro Steve Smith, if they are going to win. TAKE THE OVER 44 ½ POINTS IN THIS GAME FOR 5 STARS. LOVE IT. CHECK THE WEATHER. There should be a lot of scoring in this game. I really think that Ponder and Newton will light it up.

HOUSTON (4-3) -9 ½ OVER JACKSONVILLE (2-5) (40 ½)

I was extremely surprised to see the Texans get it together so well last week in a big hurry banged up with their two best players on the bench, to beat up a home team in the Titans. It wasn’t even a decent game. Houston DESTROYED the Titans last week and after watching the game, it was uglier than the score looked. The Jaguars are coming off their game of the year where they UPSET the visiting Baltimore Ravens and showed the league that at least they have a good defense. A lot of that result was because of the ineptitude of the Ravens offense, but don’t take anything away from the Jags. They played a great game on both sides of the ball. Matt Schaub who was banged up pretty badly the week before, got his game together and looked great. Arian Foster, their All Pro running back is healthy again and last week the Titans paid the price. There’s a chance that Andre Johnson, their All Pro wide out will be able to play this week, but even if he doesn’t, they’ve figured out a way to move the football without him. In their two division games so far this year, the Texans have outscored Indy and Tennessee by a score of 75-14. I see that continuing this week. Jacksonville may come off this short week with some confidence, but I don’t think that will help in Houston this week. I’M TAKING THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS AGAINST THE JAGS.

GIANTS (4-2) -9 ½ OVER MIAMI (0-6) (42)

Everyone that knows me knows I like what I see in the Giants so far this season. After 6 games, they are 4-2 and coming off a bye week. Brandon Jacobs is running his mouth even though he can’t get out on the field and back it up. Justin Tuck is back healthy and will play this week. We also know that until a couple of weeks ago, Tony Sparano, the browbeat head coach who has his house on the market hadn’t EVER lost to a New York team till the Jets a couple of weeks ago. We think that has something to do with his ties to the underworld (oh wrong Tony), but after losing to the Jets a couple of weeks ago, they look like they’re ready for the draft. I know that Sparano won’t give up. He is a decent coach, but this team is doing NOTHING. They’ve only scored 15 points a game so far but have played a pretty good schedule so far. They’re offense has only converted 3 out of their last 25 third downs in the past two games. Their pass defense is giving up a HUGE 102.3 rating with 12 TD’s and only 2 picks. The Giants, on the other hand, have some problems of their own even though I like where they are right now. Eli Manning and the offense are scoring points this year. Their schedule has been a bit soft so far but they’ve beaten Philly and Buffalo. The Dolphins had a late 4th quarter meltdown to Tim Tebow and the Broncos last week and just added more pressure to the already sticky situation. They Dolphins DO have a great rookie running back in Thomas but he can’t do it on his own. If the Giants were on the road, I’d be all over this game because they, as you know from following me, ARE THE ROAD WARRIORS OF THE NFL!! However, they’re at home, and I’m also scared they might overlook this Dolphins team and come out flat and make Sparano’s relatives in New York happy. It’s not like the Giants can’t do this. We’ve seen it. However, they go on the road next week to New England (yikes) and then San Francisco which will possibly make them underdogs in both games. THEY ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO WIN THIS GAME TO HAVE A CHANCE TO WIN THEIR DIVISION THIS YEAR!! DO YOU HEAR ME GIANTS?? I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME BUT THE GIANTS WILL WIN. I’M JUST NOT SURE BY HOW MANY POINTS.

NEW ORLEANS (5-2) -13 ½ OVER ST. LOUIS (0-6) (48)

These two teams couldn’t be more different. The Rams coached by a lame duck Steve Spagnuolo, are horrible. They are showing next to nothing on offense and defense. I’m not sure who they’ve been drafting for the last three or four years, but I don’t see the improvement. They have an excellent starting QB in Sam Bradford but he can’t do it without some receivers who can get some separation from the guys on defense who are covering them. They haven’t been able to do that all year long. And on top of that, Bradford isn’t going to play this week again. A.J. Feely gets the start again this week. I HAVE THE RAMS RATED AS A SUCK TEAM. The Saints are an OK+++ team that is just under a G rating. Even though we’re indoors in St. Louis, I think if the Saints score early and often, that they will take the home fans out of the game early and maybe the boo birds will show up. The Rams do have Steven Jackson, who seems to be healthy, but they’ll stack the line of scrimmage with Gregg Williams’ game plan and make Feely throw the ball to beat them. I don’t see that happening. Brandon Lloyd is a decent, not good, addition to the Rams but he’ll take some time to get in sync with Feely and/or Bradford anyway. The Saints are coming off putting off a 60 burger on the pitiful Colts. I have no reason they won’t do that to another pitiful team this week in the Rams. I don’t see the Saints losing their focus this week because they’ll probably have their assistant call the plays again with Sean Payton upstairs watching. It seemed to work last week. Drew Brees has throw 18 TD passes so far this season. The entire Rams team has thrown just 3 TD’s all year. I’M TAKING THE SAINTS MINUST THE POINTS FOR JUST 3 STARS AND THE OVER FOR 5 STARS. LOVE THE OVER.

TENNESSEE (3-3) -8½ OVER INDY (0-7) (44)

These are two teams that aren’t in a good mood. The Colts are coming off the 3rd worst loss in NFL history. A game that I personally thought the team quit on their coach. They swear they didn’t, but I’ve been around a long time and late in the game I saw nothing on the Indy side of the ball. Curtis Painter has a 85.2 QB rating which is decent, but their defense is like a sieve. Their opponents AVERAGE over 35 minutes of possession every game so it’s hard for the Indy defense to have any chance at all of stopping the opposing offenses they face. Head Coach Jim Caldwell is embarrassed and he should be, but it’s really not his fault. I feel that Bill Poillan is more responsible for the personnel that he has to put onto the field. Sure, there are some injuries, but EVERYONE has injuries. The Titans, on the other side of the ball this week, seemed to forget to prepare for their game at home against a good Houston team who kicked the crap out of them last week 41-7. The Titans can’t run the football for some reason, even though they’ve paid their star running back Chris Johnson a TON of money. He still doesn’t look like the same RB I’ve seen for the last few years. Matt Hasselbeck has two or three receivers that can get open and he has shown in the past he can be productive, but if he has problems THIS week, he and the Titans have worse problems than we think. The only really good game the Titans have played so far this year was a win against a Ravens team coming off a big win against the Steelers opening day. I’m not sure how good this team is. I was on the Titans last week and they fooled me for sure. They may come back this week and kick the crap out of a purely pitiful excuse of a team but I’m not recommending that play. I kind of like the OVER here but not committed till Sunday either way.

BUFFALO (4-2) -4 ½ OVER WASHINGTON (3-3) (45 ½)

This is a game I’ve loved since the start. Let’s take a real look at the Redskins season so far. Since an impressive opening day win at home against the Giants, they really haven’t looked that good. They barely beat the Cards, they blew a winnable game in Dallas, they barely beat a lousy Rams team, and Philly and Carolina handled them. They really are not very good. Add to that the fact that so many good starters are injured and you get a complete breakdown waiting to happen. I can’t imagine that they will have ANY chance to travel to Canada to play the upstart and talented Bills team and WIN. It just won’t happen. But the Bills as it’s been pointed out really don’t have much of a home field advantage and are 0-3 at this field. It will be interesting to watch John Beck try to pull this offense together and move the ball, and he may do it some, but I don’t see the Skins defense shutting down the Bills talented offense. The Bills are rated as an OK++ team. The Skins are OK and they are on the road. Bills’ QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is having a good year, as a matter of fact today he just signed a new contract giving him a 5 year extension. Good move by Bills. His QB rating is 92.7. His running game is acquiring a very impressive 5.2 yards per carry with Fred Jackson from tiny Coe College in Iowa being an early MVP candidate. He has caught 24 passes for 279 yards and rushed for 601 yards and a 5.7 yard AVERAGE. That tells me Chan Gailey has it going on in Buffalo. He may be the best OC in the game that’s a head coach. Sorry Norv! The only chance the Skins have is if the Bills come out flat after their Bye week and just forget to play. TAKE BUFFALO MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. I LOVE THIS GAME AND I LOVE THE BILLS. I’M TAKING THE OVER IN THIS GAME ALSO FOR 3 STARS.

DETROIT (5-2) -3 OVER DENVER (2-4) (41 ½)

This is one very interesting matchup this week. Both teams have some strange things going on with their teams and ANYTHING can happen. First of all, the Lions are reeling a bit with injuries, bad handshakes, and two home losses in a row in a place that was supposed to be a BIG home field advantage with the noise. Now they’re on the road against a Bronco team that did nothing last week till late in the 4th quarter when they were “saved” by Tim Tebow, an onside kick, and some heroics. Detroit QB Matt Stafford has a sore ankle and is day to day but should start. He won’t be 100% though. Their starting RB Javid Best is out. Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams will split the carries at RB for the Lions. They still have the best WR in the league in Calvin Johnson and he has collected 10 TD passes so far. The Broncos have had severe problems with their pass coverage so far this season, giving up a 104.2 QB rating AVERAGE to their opponents so far and have picked off just 3 passes all season. Willis McGahee, the Denver RB who has done a great job filling in so far this season, is banged up, and is out for the game. Tim Tebow of course gets the start for the Broncos and it will be interesting to see just how he’s treated if they don’t jump out to the lead early in the game. Last week he was HORRIBLE until late in the 4th quarter. The Lions are the better team here, but the big question here is can they sustain the momentum and the scoring they had in their first 5 games of the season? Will they be able to go into Mile High and be able to score enough and play enough defense to keep Tebow from saving the day again? This could be the most interesting game of the weekend. I really think it comes down to the Broncos defense and pressure they’re able to put on a banged up Matt Stafford. If they can force him into some bad throws and shut down any running game that Detroit has, this could be a GREAT GAME. Believe it or not, I’M TAKING THE BRONCOS AT HOME GETTING THE POINTS AND TIM TEBOW (not a surprise)FOR JUST 3 STARS.

NEW ENGLAND (5-1) -2 ½ AT PITTSBURGH (5-2) (52½)

Make no mistake about it. This IS a playoff game. These may be the best two teams in the AFC this year. This game may not be the one that will advance their team to the next round or put them in the Super Bowl this year, but this game will have as much to PREPARE both teams for the next time they meet as anything they will do in practice or any film they will watch. Tom Brady is 7-1 in his last 8 games against Pittsburgh. Brady and New England continue to break offensive records on a regular basis, but that’s not what is going to put the Pats deep into the playoffs this year. The improvement of their DEFENSE in my opinion, has been what they may have been making the most progress with so far this season. The last three games they’ve given up just 19, 21, and 16 points to Oakland, the Jets, and Dallas, three very decent football teams. That is VERY impressive. Now they come off a bye week which when you talk about the Pats is a big deal. Belichick is 8-0 coming off his bye weeks with the Pats. Two weeks of preparation for Brady and Belichick’s defense is scary enough for most opposing teams. They’ve gotten a little healthier and they’ll be ready to go into Heinz Field and try to come out of there with a W. The Steelers, on the side of the ball, have looked pretty good also since laying an egg opening day in Baltimore. After a close 17-10 loss in Houston, they’ve won three in a row against three not so good teams in Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Arizona. Now they prepare for the Pats at home. Generally speaking, the Steelers, even with their great fans, play about the same at home as they do on the road. The Pats have won in Heinz Field before, thus the 3 point favorite hat their wearing. The total for the game is 52. It probably will come down to who can play the best defense will win the game, but I see both teams coming out firing with both barrels on offense. Both of these QB’s are future Hall of Famers. Ben has a 96.1 QB rating and Brady has a 104.8 rating. Both of these guys will have their receiving corps ready to move down the field and put some points on the board, thus the OVER again. I’M TAKING THE OVER 52 POINTS IF THE WEATHER IS OK FOR 5 STARS. I’M PASSING ON THE GAME STRAIGHT. 3 POINTS IS PERFECT. Best game of the weekend probably.

SAN FRANCISCO (5-1) -9 OVER CLEVELAND (3-3) (38 ½)

The 49ers seem to be for real. Jim Harbaugh has lit a fire under these guys and has them playing some great football at the present time. They could easily be 6-0 right now. I have them rated 2nd in the league in my power rating behind the Packers. The Browns, on the other hand, are somehow 3-3 having beaten three teams I have had rated currently or at some time this season as a SUCK team. Petyon Hillis is supposed to get the start this week if he’s healthy, which we’re trying to figure out who knows when that is. Colt McCoy, who is a decent QB, is having some problems because his receiving corps is suspect at best. They have to figure out a way to get the ball into their playmakers’ hands and they really don’t have many playmakers. I’d say Josh Cribbs and Hillis ARE their two playmakers. Their defense is OK but their secondary has only 4 picks this season. The 49ers are the best team the Browns have faced all season. I doubt they’ll be able to run the ball with too much success and will have a problem throwing the ball also. Alex Smith seems to have found his coach in Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh is showing his confidence in Smith and so are his players. He has a 95.2 QB rating and has only thrown 2 picks all season long. They also support Smith with a running game that averages 4.5 yards per carry AND they’ve scored 7 touchdowns. Their defense on the other side of the ball, have given up 0 touchdowns on the ground so far this season. They are tough as hell. RB Frank Gore has been healthy for the most part this season and has scored 4 TD’s this season. He is an excellent running back and if they can keep him healthy, it will just accentuate their passing game with receivers like Vernon Davis, David Crabtree, and Tracy Morgan. I’M TAKING THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. THIS IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THEM TO CRUSH A TEAM RIGHT AFTER THEIR BYE WEEK.

CINCINNATI (4-2) -1 ½ OVER SEATTLE (2-4) (37½)

The Bengals are a pretty damn good team. They lost to a very good 49ers team and somehow early this season lost to Denver at Mile High. They did beat Buffalo three weeks ago at home which was a big deal and a big win. Marvin Lewis seems to have found a formula for this team that works this year. They have a rookie QB from TCU, Andy Dalton, calling the signals and he’s doing a great job. He’s more mature than most rookies and whoever did the scouting and signing of this kid needs a raise in salary. I doubt he’ll get it from the Brown family though. Cedrick Benson is getting the ball regularly and even though he’s not ripping of big chunks of yardage, he’s gotr 458 yards and averaging just under 4 yards per carry. Their leading receiver is another rookie A.J. Green, who has 4 TD’s and is averaging 15.8 yards per catch. Coming off a bye week, they travel to Seattle, which is a tough place to play and weather could be a problem this weekend. The Seahawk defense against the run is as good as anyone in the league. Seattle’s biggest problem is putting up enough points to score with their opponents. Charlie Whitehurst should get the start again this week. Marshawn Lynch may not play this week, so Leon Washington may get the snaps at RB. Personally, I hate this game because I like Cincy, but Seattle can pull off a good effort from time to time. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.

PHILLY (2-4) -3 OVER DALLAS (3-3) (48½)

This is the game which will determine, in my opinion, one of the two frontrunners for the NFC East this season. The Skins with all their injuries and continued struggle with the offense is going nowhere. The Giants are probably going to be there late in the season. The Cowboys are probably the better team here, but in Philly, the Eagles HAVE to win. They have no choice. Going 2-5 pretty would mean they would need to finish 7-2. The Eagles get Trent Cole back this week. Vick as usual is the difference AND the wild card for the Eagles. The Eagle secondary MUST play better than they have. RB DeMarco Murray is coming off a record setting 254 yard performance last week. They’ll need he and Tanard Choice to come up with big plays and keep drives alive in this one. Jason Witten for years has OWNED the Eagles in their games. There will be some pressure coming from both defensive fronts on the opposing QB’s. The Cowboys have 17 sacks, the Eagles have 18. This game will be a lot of fun to watch, but maybe not to play. The Eagles are undefeated (12-0) coming off bye weeks with Andy Reid as their head coach. That probably means something, but I still don’t like them enough to take them minus the points against a Dallas team that plays well on the road. This is going to be one hell of a game to watch on TV. IM TAKING OVER 50 ½ POINTS FOR A SMALL PLAY.

KANSAS CITY (3-3) +3 OVER SAN DIEGO (4-2) (44 ½)

I’ve had the Chargers pegged all year. They’re not that good and if there’s a way for them to lose, they’ll find it. Todd Haley somehow after starting the season 0-3 and looking HORRIBLE in doing so, have fought back to win three in a row and are in the hunt for another AFC West title possibly. In the game earlier this season in San Diego, they almost came away with a win in San Diego, losing 20-17. Haley should have the Chiefs ready for this one. Their defense has rebounded from losing some key players. Dwayne Bowe is a FORCE at wide out, being one of the strongest receivers in the league. He’s caught 29 passes and 4 for touchdowns and a 17.1 yard average per catch. Steve Breaston, formerly from Arizona, is their number 2. Matt Cassel is a very capable quarterback and maybe in this game has more weapons than opposing QB Phillip Rivers who is having more problems so far this year than he has in his entire career. Rivers has thrown 7 TD’s and has 9 picks already this season. Very un-San Diego and Phillip Rivers-like. For Kansas City, youngsters Jackie Battle and Derrick McCluster have ignited the running game along with veteran Thomas Jones to give support to Cassel and the offense. The bye week seemed to work well for the Chiefs because they came away with a 28-0 win against a formidable Oakland Raider team in Oakland. Michael Tolbert and Malcom Floyd may not play again for the Chargers. That could hurt. I’M TAKING THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS AT ARROWHEAD FOR 4 STARS.

SUMMARY OF PICKS

HOUSTON -9 ½ OVER JACKSONVILLE 4
CAROLINA-MINNY OVER 47 4
BUFFALO -4 ½ OVER WASHINGTON 5
BUFFALO-WASHINGTON OVER 45 ½ 5
DENVER +3 OVER DETROIT 3
PITTSBURGH-PATS OVER 52 ½ 5
SAN FRANCISCO -9 OVER CLEVELAND 4
DALLAS-PHILLY OVER 48½ 5
KANSAS CITY +3 OVER SAN DIEGO 4