Plays for Week 9

The Bills not surprisingly ended their drought in Canada by shutting out the punchless Redskins 23-0 last week. The Skins couldn’t do anything and by last count were sacked 10 times on offense. This is from a defense that had only 6 or 7 sacks to that point in the season. One thing that has me concerned is the health of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick that was only hit one time trying to throw last week, but the time he was hit he was absolutely DRILLED in the chest by London Fletcher of the Skins. How he got up, I have no idea, but evidently after the soreness set in from the hit, he’s been limited this week in practice. That could be a problem. He is their guy. The Jets come in off their bye week and really need a win badly or they drop back down to .500 before the game with New England next week. The Jets are 4-0 at home and have yet to win on the road. The Bills go back to Rich Stadium where they are 3-0 so far this season. I have Buffalo rated as a GOOD TEAM and I have the Jets rated as just OK. The 1 ½ point line is a phenomenal value for any handicapper and I would be STUPID not to take the Bills here, but the QB situation has me concerned. Honestly, they are at least a 4 point favorite here. However, if the Jets are going to get going sooner or later on the road and into the playoffs this year, they have to start somewhere. It IS a short trip to Buffalo from New York. They really haven’t beaten anyone any good except their big comeback opening day against Dallas and even Rex would say that had some luck involved. There should be plenty of points scored in this game. Usually the Bills give up yardage on the ground and don’t pressure the quarterback very well. Sanchez and his running game if they play turnover free should put some points on the board. Plaxico Burress is questionable for this game. The Bills seem to put points up every week. I’m going to TAKE BUFFALO MINUS THE TINY LINE AND ALSO THE OVER FOR 4 STARS AS A HEDGE. The Bills are definitely the better team here. After this game the Bills go on the road for 3 straight games so they really need this game just as badly as the Jets do. Rex coached teams have averaged over 250 yards on the ground in their 4 previous meetings. I look for the Jets to run the football more than they have so far this year.
DALLAS (3-4) – 11 OVE R SEATTLE (2-5) (44 ½ )

The Cowboys took a huge step backwards last week when they showed up in Philly and looked like they didn’t prepare at all for the Eagles. They were terrible and NEVER in the game. The Cowboys schedule has been tough to this point and isn’t going to get much better. If they can’t beat the Seahawks at home this weekend, they should start looking at making changes for next year already. On the positive side last week, the Cowboys DeMarcus Ware had 4 sacks. That is the first time that’s been done since Charles Haley 20 years ago. I have the Seahawks rated as a OK—TEAM and the Cowboys rated as a OK+ team. The Boys are at home and coming off a horrible loss. However, the Seahawks have shown they can travel and win earlier this year with a win against the New York Giants. To take the Seahawks lightly would be a BIG MISTAKE! What a difference a week makes. Two weeks ago the Cowboys beat the winless (at the time) Rams team 34-7, then lost by the same score to Philly last week. It seems that the Eagles are getting ready to make a run. A far cry from everyone in Philly wanting Andy Reid and Juan Castillo fired a couple of weeks ago. The Seahawks at times have looked decent this year, but last week they were crushed at home against the Cincinnati Bengals and their defense. Tavaris Jackson should get the start for the Seahawks this week and Marshawn Lynch is healthy. Sean Lee, the great linebacker for the Cowboys is out for the game. Mike Jenkins and Felix Jones are still out. Cowboy RB Tashard Choice was waived this past week and picked up. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE THE NUMBER IS ACCURATE AND ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN IN THE LAST 5 MINUTES OF THE GAME. PASS. SEE TONY ROMO!
HOUSTON (5-3) -10 ½ OVER CLEVELAND (3-4) (41)

The Browns have MANY problems but their biggest problem is no Peyton Hillis (for whatever reason) and NO offense. Their defense is pretty good but they can’t score on offense. Colt McCoy looks lost on the field at times but to his credit has only thrown 5 picks so far this season. Peyton Hillis (surprise) pulled a hammy and is OUT for the game. So is Mario Hardesty. That means that the Browns will probably be starting a practice team player or two in the backfield. Early in the week it looked like Andre Johnson might be back for the Texans but he is now OUT for the game. They already have lost their best defensive lineman, Mario Williams for the season, but his replacement has played well. In my opinion, the difference in the Texans so far this season ahs been Wade Phillips and what he’s done to this defense. Not only can the Texans score points, but NOW they can play some defense too. I have CLEVELAND RATED AS AN OK- TEAM. I HAVE THE TEXANS, even though their record is just 5-3, RATED AS A GOOD TEAM. They are at home and should handle the Browns in this matchup easily, even though the Browns have a good defense. The Texans have two of the best running backs in the league in Arian Foster and Ben Tate. The Texans are 28-2 under Gary Kubiak’s tenure when they run the ball at least 30 times. Hey, RUN THE FREAKING BALL 30 TIMES GARY, OK!! I look for the Texans to beat the Browns and COVER THE POINTSPREAD. I’M TAKING THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. The Cleveland offense absolutely sucks.
ATLANTA (4-3) – 7 OVER INDY (0-8) (44½)

The last time I watched the Falcons play, they looked like a much better team than earlier this season. Matt Ryan owns an NFL best 26-6 records in domed stadiums. This week they play in a domed stadium. They also play against probably the WORST team in the league. The Falcons defensive backs have played 3 good games in a row. They should be able to keep Curtis Painter and the Colts between the 20’s and out of the end zone, but let’s not speak too quickly. This is probably ONE of the few games the Colts have a chance of keeping close and possibly winning. The question here is WHY would they want to win? Andrew Luck is possibly the best QB to come out of college in many years and if the Colts win 2 or 3 or 4 games, they’ve screwed their chance of getting a successor to Peyton Manning, who in my opinion, may not be coming back at all. Offensively, the Colts still have some weapons, they just can’t keep anyone from scoring when they turn the ball over to them. I HAVE THE FALCONS RATED AS AN OK TEAM. I HAVE THE COLTS RATED AS A SUCK TEAM. The Colts non-secondary gives up a 72.3% passing percentage. They give up a 112.2 QB rating per game. They’re giving up 33 points per game!! I would love to take the Colts here because all of the money and straight plays are on the Falcons AND the Colts are at home, but they are SO FREAKING BAD! The Colts allow the opposing offenses to control the ball an AVERAGE of 35 minutes per game. I’m going to PASS ON THE GAME because the side I like is the Colts side here and I’d be OUT OF MY DAMN MIND TO PLAY THE COLTS FOR ANY REASON HERE. My name is NOT Joe Theisman (rymes with Heisman but not really) It’s not like the Falcons can afford to lose this game. A loss here to the pathetic Colts hurts their playoff chances terribly I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME AND JUST WATCH A FEW SHOTS OF IT ON RED ZONE HOPEFULLY.
KANSAS CITY (4-3) -4 OVER MIAMI (0-7) (40½)

Wow, maybe one of the greatest turnarounds in the history of NFL, K.C. going from 0-3 and looking HORRIBLE to winning 4 straight and beating NORV, WHICH I CALLED BY THE WAY! Talk about a really weird line here. The Chiefs just beat San Diego, supposedly a decent team as a home dog this past week, and now play at home again against a winless team in the Dolphins who are…maybe in the Andrew Luck competition for sure and they are only 4 point favorites. This line almost says the two teams are exactly the same if they played on a neutral field. I’d say that’s not true. There’s no way the Dolphins are as good as the Chiefs but maybe the close game with the Giants last week has everyone fooled. That doesn’t fool me. The Giants usually cruise and don’t play well at home anyway. I know that, but I guess Vegas doesn’t so we’ll take advantage of that. Personally, it absolutely looks like a trap, BUT, value is value and the fans in K.C. (and the head coaches’ beard) are saying GO CHIEFS, GO CHIEFS, GO CHIEFS! Matt Cassel and head coach Todd Haley seem to do great while they are cursing at each other and hey, if you keep winning, keep cursing at each other. Haley seems to be a decent game day coach. I like what I see (even though he’s a great golfer) and he’s making GM Paoli, who I’m not sold on, look good. Many “pundits” are saying that the Chiefs may have the best team in the West. I say it’s early and that division is ALWAYS up for grabs, but they certainly have looked good lately. Miami RB Daniel Thomas is still questionable with a bad hamstring and even though Reggie Bush looked decent last week against the Giants (they’re run defense isn’t good), the Chiefs should be tougher especially in their place. Their fans always make problems for the offensive snap count situation. Here’s the problem for the Dolphins as I see it. Matt Moore has thrown just ONE TD pass all season long. The Dolphins defense has given up 14 TD passes so far this season. Do the math. That has a lot to do with their 0-7 record. The Chiefs have too many weapons throwing the ball for the Dolphins to be able to stop them especially at home. The Chiefs have a 1-2 punch of Jackie Battle and Dexter McCluster going right now. These kids are playing some ball. Dwayne Bowe and Steve Breaston are providing Cassel with good targets down the field. Bowe is a monster. Miami, on the other hand, has struggled trying to throw the ball. Brandon Marshall has only caught one TD all season long. If Miami is ever going to get into the winner’s column, they’ll have to get their receivers more involved. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS FOR A SMALL PLAY HERE, 3 STARS.

NEW ORLEANS (5-3) -8 OVER TAMPA BAY ((4-3) (50)

The Saints are coming off a big letdown game against the Rams who beat them soundly in St. Louis for their first win of the season. Three weeks ago the Saints lost to the Bucs in Tampa by a score of 26-20. This is a game New Orleans must win to get back on top of their division and square up their series with the rival Bucs. The Bucs can’t afford to lose here either and if they win, they will SWEEP the Saints this year. Drew Brees has struggled at times this year with interceptions and must get his command of his throws back. A lot of his problems stem from pass protection. He lost his starting center to retirement two weeks ago. Even though he’s thrown for 2,746 yards so far this year, he’s been picked off 10 times. Injuries haven’t helped either. The Saints defense has only picked off 4 of their opponents’ passes all season. Gregg Williams’ defense has also given up a whopping 5.5 yards per carry this year on the ground. This defense is NOT very good. They will have to do a much better job on the defensive side of the ball to take the pressure off of Brees feeling like he has to score every time he touches the ball. No matter what happens this week, I see the Saints AND the Bucs scoring a lot of points this week inside the Super Dome in New Orleans. I’m going to play the OVER 50 POINTS FOR 5 STARS THIS WEEK. Tampa is coming off a bye week after their trip to London where they didn’t show up to play till the second half. This is going to be a hard played game on both sides of the ball for both teams. Great game to watch.
SAN FRANCISCO (6-1) -4 OVER SKINS (3-4) (37½)

Jim Harbaugh, besides having to learn how to shake hands the “NFL way” has been exactly what the franchise needed in a head coach this year. They could be undefeated had it not been for a late meltdown early in the season against Dallas. They can run the ball as good as anyone in the league right now. Frank Gore has averaged over 120 yards per game over the past four starts. Alex Smith has finally found the guy that can show him how to play QB in the NFL and be successful. He has one of the best pass receiving tight ends in the league in Vernon Davis from Maryland. The Redskins played their worst game of the year last week getting shut out in Toronto by the Bills. It was the first time EVER that Mike Shanahan has been shut out in the NFL. John Beck, who will be starting his 3rd game in a row with the Redskins WAS SACKED 10 TIMES last week. That’s almost hard to believe but injuries on the offensive line have left the Skins in a terrible situation in run blocking and especially pass protection. The Redskins defense miraculously only gave up 23 points last week having been on the field for two thirds of the game. London Fletcher had a bad hamstring and somehow made 20 tackles. That’s about 19 more than anyone else made. This should be a low scoring affair because I see the 49ers coming out running the football successfully and the Redskins fighting to just be able to score points. Anything else would be a surprise believe me. I HAVE THE 49ERS RATED AS A GOOD TEAM. I HAVE THE SKINS RATED AS AN OK—TEAM. TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. The 49ers have beaten Cincinnati, Philly, Tampa Bay, and Detroit. All of these teams are substantially better than the Skins. Sadly, I’ll be at the game wishing Dan Snyder had hired Jim Harbaugh away from Stanford instead of bringing in Mike Shanahan and his son Kyle. I wish I was the GM of this team. I’d have a winner again in 2 or 3 years. Trickle down effect from the owner’s box. He sucks. They suck.
OAKLAND (4-3) -7 OVER DENVER (2-5) (42½)

The Raiders are home after their bye week and a 28-0 thrashing at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs at home the week before. The Raiders are a team in transition since they made the deal for Carson Palmer to be their starting QB and QB of the future. Darren McFadden, the Raiders star running back is out. The Raiders just signed Palmer’s good friend and former Bengal teammate T.J. Housyourdaddy and that can’t hurt, but how much can it help? This game is a complete toss up because nobody (even me) knows what kind of effect a QB who has only been working out for two weeks is going to have, no matter how good he is. There’s no way I’m giving anyone advice to take a team as an 7 point favorite with all of these changes and coming off a horrible performance, even if a bye week is included in there. Tim Tebow is on double secret probation at Faber, I mean Denver, and is probably the most talked about young man in the world and he hasn’t killed anyone. He’s the QB of the Broncos. The big question here is, Is he the future QB of the Broncos. Another bad performance will probably put Tebow on the bench and mean another Denver loss. Maybe John Fox will only win 2 games here in Denver just like he did last year in Carolina. Willis McGahee is still out so Ball and Moreno will provide what running yardage Denver will have. The offensive line of the Broncos is having a hard time pass blocking and with McGahee out, Tebow is their best runner. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE IT’S JUST PLAIN BUTT UGLY AND THERE ARE FAR TOO MANY UNKNOWNS. PASS.
TENNESSEE (4-3) -3 OVER CINCINNATI (5-2) (41½)

After beating a pitiful Cleveland team a month ago, the Titans have really done nothing since. Houston came to Nashville two weeks ago and DESTROYED the Titans. After signing a new contract, Chris Johnson is averaging 2.8 yards per carry. I’d be brain dead by now, but I think at age 57 I could run for 2.8 yards per carry. I would at least go north and south and run as hard as I can. Matt Hasselbeck is a capable QB and has looked very good so far this season but the Titans NEED TO RUN THE FOOTBALL TO BE EFFECTIVE! Javon Ringer, C.J.’s backup, should get more touches this week. Coach Mike Munchak is losing patience with Johnson and won’t take much more. Cincinncati, on the other hand, is the better team here even though the Titans for some reason are the favorite. I’m tempted here to go with rookie Andy Dalton and his great defense on the Bengals side of the ball, but everyone else in the country is already doing that and the Titans DO NEED A WIN BADLY. The Bengals are playing well, but their schedule has been weak. Besides losing to a good 49ers team 13-8 and beating a tough Buffalo team 23-20, they haven’t played anyone really. HOWEVER, THEY PLAY THE STEELERS AND THE RAVENS 4 TIMES DURING THEIR LAST 8 GAMES OF THE SEASON! Having said that, the Bengals need this win desperately. Tennessee is a good place for them to come in to and get a win. They get Cedrick Benson back from his one game suspension this week and rookie WR A.J. Green has been awesome. He and Dalton will provide Bengals fans some hope for a long while. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE IT JUST SMELLS LIKE A TRAP. Everyone in the country feels like I do and is betting on the Bengals. If C.J. gets it together and they can keep the Bengals defense on the field for a while, the Titans can come out with a victory here. They certainly need it worse than the Bengals do right now AND they’re at home. PASS.
ST. LOUIS (1-6) +3 AT ARIZONA (1-6) (41)

It’s finally official. We know who the WORST ANNOUNCING CREW FOR FOX SPORTS TV ARE THIS YEAR!! IT’S SAM ROSEN AND CHAD PENNINGTON BECAUSE THEY ARE ANNOUNCING THIS GAME! A combined 2-12 record for these two teams makes this the worst game of the week for sure. Last week A.J. Feeley somehow guided the Rams to a 31-21 victory over a Saints team that came in 13½ point favorites. This was the Rams first win of the season. It was horrible not just because we were on the Saints. It was horrible because Drew Brees looked like he was confused and that usually never happens. Steven Jackson totaled 191 yards from scrimmage against a Saints defense that is slowly playing New Orleans out of the playoff hunt. I expect Steven will show up again this week and start pounding the Cardinals linebackers and defensive backs with that big body of his early in the game. The Cardinals since winning on opening day against the Carolina Panthers, have not figured out to come out on top since. The past two weeks they played well against Pittsburgh and Baltimore so a step down in class this week could come at a good time. The big question here is are they healthy enough? The Cardinals offense has Beanie Wells to run the ball and Larry Fitzgerald and company to move through the air, but Kevin Kolb, who signed a huge deal with the Cards before this season, is struggling because they’re having a hard time playing catch up. Now it looks like Kolb won’t be playing this game on Sunday because of turf toe. John Skelton will get the start for Arizona, a second year backup that honestly can’t play much worse than Kolb has so far. If the Cardinals can’t beat the Rams this week at home, I would think big changes might be put in place in Arizona for the future. The Cardinals defense has given up over 30 points in their past 4 games with a bye week thrown in there for good measure. That’s not a good thing. If Arizona showed me any chance of improving, then I’d be all over them here getting 2 points at home against a DOME team that had not won a game until last week. Sam Bradford might get the start for the Rams and that will be a good thing for them. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME.
NEW ENGLAND (5-2) -9 OVER GIANTS (5-2) (51)

This is going to be a very interesting game to watch because there is SO much going on here. The Pats are coming off losing to the Steelers last week where they looked pretty bad. The Giants are coming off a comeback victory over the weak Miami Dolphins but they only really played a half of football. I have the GIANTS RATED AS AN OK TEAM. THE PATS ARE OK+. Eli Manning and Tom Brady are both having two of the best years so far in the league for QB’s averaging over 100 QB rating per game. The Giants begin a 6 week EXTREMELY TOUGH STRETCH OF GAMES here in New England. Their next 5 weeks are at San Francisco, Philly, at New Orleans, Green Bay, and at Dallas. That is BRUTAL. Brandon Jacobs is talking so much smack that it’s obvious he wants out of New York, but he will definitely get more touches this week but how effective will he be? Eli’s receivers have looked good this year but Hakeem Nicks is OUT for this game. RB Ahmad Bradshaw is OUT for the game. C David Baas may be OUT. DE Jean Pierre-Paul may be OUT with a concussion. Cruz and Manningham both are capable WR’s and will do fine but will they be able to keep up with Pats? Brandon Jacobs gets the start, but will he be able to back up all the smack he talks? The question here for the Giants, and they are on the road which is where I prefer them, is can they outscore the Pats? After watching the Pats last week, you’d have to say they have a chance, but I’m sure that Brady and Belichick will come back this week with a strong game plan. Wes Welker is banged up. Curtis Edelmen is allegedly groping girls in night clubs. Is Law Firm healthy? It’s like everyone I hear on TV is saying. I doubt the Pats will lose two in a row, but who knows? Either way, it’s going to be a barnburner. I LOVE THE OVER 51 POINTS HERE FOR 5 STARS (WATCH THE WEATHER)I’m PASSING ON THE SPREAD LINE BECAUSE EVEN THOUGH IT’S AN AWAY GAME, I SEE BRADY TOTALLY OUTDUELING ELI IN THIS ONE, ESPECIALLY WITH SOME OF HIS BIG WEAPONS OUT FOR THE GAME. PATS WILL WIN.
GREEN BAY (7-0) -5 ½ AT SAN DIEGO (4-3)(51)

Normally I’d love the over here and I may take it late anyway, but I’m not sure that San Diego can score enough points even at home to make that a smart play here. Green Bay is the top team in the league here. They’re coming off a bye week and hopefully they’ve healed up a bit and everyone is still on top of their game. THE PACKERS ARE THE BEST TEAM IN THE NFL AND ARE RATED A GOOD TEAM. THE CHARGERS ARE JUST OK. I really don’t see any way that the Chargers can stay with the Packers in this game. They’ve lost two games in a row to the Chiefs and the Jets. They haven’t been home for a month and should get some kind of bump from that, but their last game at home they beat the winless Miami Dolphins 27-17. Normally this would be a great spot for a play on San Diego getting so many points at home. The problem here is that I don’t think San Diego is that good. And they are hurt. Dielman is still out. Matthews and Floyd are out. Shaun Phillips is out. They’re banged up! It’s a weak division. Green Bay would have to look pretty dysfunctional here to not beat the Chargers by at least a touchdown. Last week Matt Cassel carved up the Chargers secondary in the second half to win. His line gave him plenty of time to throw. I don’t really see anything changing quickly for the Chargers. Aaron Rodgers has 20 TD’s with just 3 picks. Phillip Rivers has 7 TD’s with 11 picks. The Chargers defense isn’t nearly as good as the Packers’ D. You do the math. I’M TAKING THE PACKERS MINUST THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. Chargers coming off short week isn’t the week to start looking at Norv’s team to cover, let alone to win.
PITTSBURGH (6-2) -3 OVER BALTIMORE (5-2) (42)

You know this game is gonna come down to defense but is it really? Big Ben has been hot lately leading the Steelers to winning 4 in a row. He’s thrown for over 300 yards two games in a row. He’s on a pace to break his own team record this season. Last week they dominated a New England team that’s pretty damn good. They lost to the Ravens on opening day (I was there) and it was a horrible loss but the lockout hurt teams differently and the Steelers were one of the NFL teams it did hurt. They didn’t even look like they had a chance the entire game. They have made some changes, adjusted to some injuries, and now they look completely different. The Ravens, on the other hand, have gone the wrong direction since the opener. Even though they beat the Jets and Houston at home, they lost on national TV to Jacksonville and barely came back to win last week against a weak Cardinals team that has only won one game so far this season. How they answer this week will say a lot about their team. Personally, I’d hate to come into Pittsburgh and play against the Steelers right now if I were Harbaugh and the Ravens. Lamar Woodley is OUT, but they’re getting the toughest defensive player in the league back this week in James Harrison. Harrison’s return will give the Steelers a jump start for sure. This, like the first meeting, is basically a playoff game. Both teams need to establish the run or have some success with their short passing game to be successful. Hines Ward may play. Legursky’s still OUT. WR Emmanuel Sanders’ mother passed away and he’s probably OUT also. I’m going to pass on the game straight up but TAKE THE OVER 42 POINTS FOR 4 STARS. The winner here may score over 30. I’m leaning towards the Steelers so, EITHER EMAIL ME OR CALL ME AT 1-800-466-4748 AND CHECK ON MY PLAY FOR THIS GAME ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SHOW OR JUST AFTER THE SHOW!!
PHILLY (3-4) -7 ½ OVER CHICAGO (4-3) (47)

It’s hard to believe that this Eagles team still is below .500. A couple of weeks ago, everyone wanted Andy Reid’s job. They were in the process of trying to find something that would work defensively for all their talent. Last week they seemed to find it in a 34-7 shallacking of the Cowboys who looked like they have NO chance to do anything this year. That’s how good the defense for the Eagles looked. They also got a super performance out of LeSean McCoy who is looking like the best running back in the NFC right now. You hear that Mr. Forte. Seriously, two of the best running backs in the league face off at Lincoln Financial in Philly on Monday night. Personally, I don’t see how the Bears can match up with them on both sides of the ball. Add to that the truth that every time Mike Vick pulls the ball down and runs with it he AVERAGES over 8 yards per carry. Vick again is the difference here. Defensively, the Eagles pass rush has improved dramatically. They’ve sacked the opposing QB’s 22 times this season so far and Cutler has BEEN sacked 21 times. If they get the pressure they probably will, I doubt Cutler will have much time to throw down the field. Matt Forte and his ability to carve out smaller pieces of yardage will be the difference here. If the Eagles defense can bottle up the Bears offense in the box, then it will be a long night for the Bears. The line here is 7½ which is a lot of points. I’m going to PASS on the game at present and see what kind of action seems to be on here before Monday. Also, the health of Julius Peppers is key here also. If he plays, a much better chance for the Bears. PASS ON THE GAME.