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Pro Football Pick-Em – Picking against the spread

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ST. LOUIS +1 ½OVER ARIZONA (38) – Well, if you called Thursday for this play, you were one of the 15% in the country who were happy after the end of the game.  Arizona’s 4-0 start wasn’t an illusion but the Rams had won both home games against decent teams and just added the Cardinals to their list, winning 17-3.  Zona QB Kevin Kolb was sacked 8 times during the game and has set an NFL mark of 16 sacks in two games. Will he be sore? Oh yeah, he’s sore, but he’ll be back if HC Ken Whisenhunt wants him there.  It’s nice to have ONE WIN going into the weekend. WINNER!!

MIAMI +3 AT CINCINNATI (45) – The Dolphins have lost two OT games in a row and I see some good things when I watch them play. Their defense, although it’s not ranked real high, has performed well most of the time. They’ve only given up 227 yards in 4 games rushing and their pass defense is adequate.  Reggie Bush is questionable for the game but if he plays, and I’m pretty sure he will, the Bengals will have their hands full with the Miami offense.  Ryan Tannehill finally got off against the Cards defense, which is a good defense, and threw for over 400 yards last week.  WR Brian Hartline has caught 25 passes for 455 yards so far this season and a touchdown.  I love the underdog Dolphins in Cincy against a Bengals team that I think is grossly overrated.  The Bengals defense is not good.  They’re giving up 5.4 yards a carry and opposing QB’s have a 102 QB rating.  I watched the Redskins lose to them but move the ball almost at will against them.  The Bengals really haven’t beaten anyone yet!  Cleveland, Washington, and Jacksonville are going nowhere this season.  TAKE THE DOLPHINS WHO CAN TACKLE TO BEAT THE BENGALS IN A CLOSE HIGH SCORING GAME. CHECK THE WEATHER BEFORE TAKING THE OVER. I LIKE THE DOLPHINS FOR 3 STARS HERE AND WEATHER PERMITTING THE OVER ALSO.

GREEN BAY -7 AT INDIANAPOLIS (48) – This game could be interesting if the Colts can move the football, not turn it over, and play a little defense.  That’s a lot to ask of a weak but slowly improving team.  The good news is they are at home but the Packers faithful will be everywhere in the stands for this game and coming off a nailbiter against the Saints last week in New Orleans, I’m not really sure what kind of team we’re looking at in Green Bay.  Personally, I think they’re terribly overrated, as is this line from Vegas of 7 points.  Colts offensive coordinator Bruce Arians takes over as head coach after HC Chuck Pagano was dignosed with leukemia this past week.  How the Colts respond to this will be important. Pagano is a defensive coach and he will be missed on that side of the ball, but as a cancer survivor himself, he knows what his coach is going through.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME FEELING THAT THERE ARE JUST TOO MANY UNKNOWNS GOING INTO THE GAME, BUT I’LL BE ROOTING FOR ANDREW LUCK AND HIS TEAMMATES IN THIS ONE.

BALTIMORE – 6 ½ AT KANSAS CITY (47 ½) – The Ravens have had a couple of days extra to prepare and rest up for this road trip to K.C. These two teams are far apart when it comes to pecking order.  Personally, I don’t think the Chiefs are any good.  Sure, they have some talent. Jamaal Charles is averaging 5.8 yards a carry.  Dwayne Bowe is a solid receiver. But besides those two, I see nothing to be excited about no matter where the Chiefs play.  Unless GM Scott Paoli and HC Romeo Crennel, former Patriot employees, start cheating like the Pats have and probably still do, they’re just going to be an average team at best.  EVERYONE who has left the safe haven of Foxboro after coaching in New England has not been successful. Matt Cassel, who got a big contract in K.C. after having BETTER numbers than Tom Brady a few years ago when Brady was injured, has a QB rating of 70.4.  He has 5 TD’s and 7 picks.  The Chiefs have been crushed by Buffalo and San Diego, both average teams this season at best.  Their only win comes against Drew Brees and his beleaguered Saints team who EVERYONE has beaten this season.  6 ½ points is a lot of points to spot on the road but I’m going to do it anyway.  The Ravens have Joe Flacco and his offense who can move the football against most anybody.  Ray Rice can carry the ball 10 or 35 times and dominate a game.  Their defensive backfield may be the best in the NFL right now.  I’M TAKING THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS AGASINT THIS LOUSY CHIEFS TEAM.

MINNESOTA – 5 ½ OVER TENNESSEE (44 ½) – The Vikings are slowly but surely improving their squad and gaining an identity as a tough team, especially at home.  Two weeks ago they beat a team I picked to be in the Super Bowl this season and one of the top two teams in the league in the 49ers.  Last week on the heels of that win, they traveled to Ford Field in Detroit and physically beat up on the Lions who many thought would win the North Division of the NFC this season.  Christian Ponder is supposed to start this week even though he’s knicked up a bit and if Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin continue to make big plays, the Titans shouldn’t be much of an obstacle for the Vikings to take their record to 4-1.   Jake Locker is out for this game so Matt Hasselbeck will get the start at QB for Tennessee. Tennessee has been outscored on the road 76-24 this season.  I don’t see them getting well against the Vikings.  The Vikings DL has 12 sacks so far and Jared Allen only has 2 of them.  Look for Allen to get off this weekend.  I’M TAKING THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS HERE.

GIANTS -8 OVER CLEVELAND (45) – The line started at -13 but moved to -8 during the week.  The Giants have many starters out for this game and even though the Browns aren’t going anywhere this season, they have showed that they play hard and have some players.  Rookie QB Brandon Weeden has struggled most of the season.  All of it isn’t his fault. One of his best receivers, Mohammed Massaquoi has hardly played this season, now out with a hamstring injury.  Rookie RB Trent Richardson has played well but is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry with 3 TD’s.  Richardson is also Weeden’s leading receiver.  Last week the Browns hung tough with the Ravens in Baltimore.  That isn’t done easily.  The majority of the money in Vegas is on the Browns believe it or not.  WR’s Ramses Barden and Hakeem Nicks are both out this week for the Giants.  On the defense, Jayron Hosley and Kenny Phillips are both out also. I’M GONNA PASS ON THIS GAME EVEN THOUGH ELI WILL PROBABLY BRING A WIN HOME FOR THE FANS .  I don’t like to play the Giants when they’re at home to begin with.

PITTSBURGH -3 ½ OVER PHILLY (43) – Last week Michael Vick and the Eagles held on to defeat the Giants in Philly in a game that could have gone either way.  Vick looked good because he didn’t turn the ball over, even though he did nothing outstanding.  I think that’s the Mike Vick Andy Reid wants to see this season.  Pittsburgh coming off the bye week has Harrison, Polamulu, and Mendenhall coming back this week from injuries.  If they’re not ready for a team like the Eagles now, they may never be ready.  Another loss takes the Steelers to a 1-3 record, somewhere they have probably never been in recent years.  I usually like Phily on the road but this week there are some facts that stick out to me.  First of all, the Steelers have gone 38 games without losing two games in a row.  They’ve also won 9 out of their last 10 home games.  However, Todd Haley is not the answer for the offense as an offensive coordinator.  I’m not sure why they hired him to work with Roethlisberger but I’ll be surprised if it works out.  I’m also not convinced the return of two players who can’t be in very good shape, is going to improve what so far has been a below average Pittsburgh D.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME.

ATLANTA -3 AT WASHINGTON (48 ½) – This doesn’t look like a very good matchup for the Redskins this weekend.  The Falcons, led by QB Matt Ryan, are 4-0 and their offense has been near impossible to stop. They beat the Chargers two weeks ago by a 27-3 margin in San Diego on grass. This week they travel to Washington to play on grass against a team that’s defensive backfield has had substantial problems trying to defend the pass at all.  Now Washington faces an excellent passing game of Ryan to Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez.  Ryan has thrown 11 TD’s and only two picks.  The Redskins have given up 11 TD’s already this season.  The weather is supposed to be miserable so that might help the Redskins.  The Redskins have rushed for 702 yards in 4 games and Robert Griffin has thrown at a 103.2 QB rating clip.  Last week against Carolina, the Falcons came from behind to win the game scoring with less than a minute left from their own 1 yard line.  If they let RG3 and the Skins stay close, anything can happen.  Check the weather but I’m GONNA PASS ON THIS GAME.

CAROLINA -3 OVER SEATTLE (42.5) – For Carolina to have a chance in this game, they’ll need to unleash some kind of running game against a defense that is quick and athletic in Seattle.  Seattle beat Dallas and Green Bay, then lost a tough game in St. Louis last week.  This week they come east to Charlotte in what could be some nasty weather. The Seahawks are gonna have to run the football successfully to set up any kind of a passing game from Russell Wilson.  The return of RB Jonathan Stewart helps the Panthers and Cam Newton should find some passing lanes like he did last week against the Falcons.  If Marshawn Lynch can move the chains, it will make a win more likely for Seattle.  Lynch is key.  Check the weather tomorrow for this game. I’M GONNA PASS ON THIS GAME FOR SURE.

CHICAGO -5 ½ AT JACKSONVILLE (42.5) – Except for a 2^nd week blip in the radar against a Packers team that sacked Jay Cutler 8 times in the first half, the Bears have played well in their 3 wins this season.  Last Monday night in Dallas, they picked off Tony Romo 5 times and beat the Cowboys 34-18.  This week they go against the worst offense in the league in Jacksonville.  Maurice Jones-Drew IS the offense for the Jags getting the ball over half the time either running or receiving.  I doubt that Jacksonville can spread the ball enough around to keep the Bears from making sure Jones-Drew doesn’t hurt them too badly. Matt Forte should have a field day against the Jags.   All the money is on the Bears in Vegas both money and straight up. I’M GONNA PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE EVERY TIME I LIKE THE BEARS, THEY SCREW ME.

NEW ENGLAND -6 ½ OVER DENVER (52) – Denver’s losses are to two undefeated teams, the Texans and the Falcons.  The Pats two losses are by a total of 3 points to Arizona (who was undefeated) and the Ravens on a last second field goal.  The Pats return home fresh off a 52-28 victory over the Bills on the road.  In the past two games they’ve scored a total of 82 points.  The Pats also have discovered their running game again with two RB’s last week who rushed for 247 yards.  Bill Belichick is 5-10 lifetime against the Broncos.  Peyton Manning has thrown for 8 TD’s in his last two games against New England, but usually, the Pats have had their way with him.   Peyton has struggled with going downfield since he’s come back. His arm strength is OK, but he really doesn’t have that many receivers who can stretch the field.  However, the Pats defense isn’t all that great.  I can see Brady scoring on the Denver defense and the Broncos trying to keep it close.  I’m going to take the Pats MINUS THE POINTS natural here for4 stars.  Weather permitting it might be a good hedge to take the over here for a little bit.

SAN FRANCISCO -10 OVER BUFFALO (45) – The 49ers are coming off a cross country two weeks where they lost in Minnesota, then stayed in Ohio and practiced and DESTROYED the New York Jets last week.  After a hiccup against the Minnesota Vikings two weeks ago, I look for San Francisco to flex some muscle and some talent at home for the fans this week.  Buffalo is going to have to replace their right guard and left tackle this week after they went out last week with injuries.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is OK at QB, but he’ll have his hands full in the Bay with this 49ers defense.  The Bills might get Fred Jackson back and RB C.J. Spiller can run the football, but a team that loses to the Jets by 20 isn’t going to stay close to this 49ers team. I’M GONNA TAKE THE 49ERS FOR 5 STARS HERE.

NEW ORLEANS -3 ½ OVER SAN DIEGO (53.5) – The Saints have had a rough time. Let’s leave it at that. Everyone knows the story and Bounty-Gate and all of that. What a lot of people don’t know is that Drew Brees made most of this happen to himself, he and his agent.  Brees is just starting to look like he’s ready for the season behind center.  They looked better last week against Green Bay than they have all season long.  The Chargers have beaten teams with a combined record of 3-9 so far. The Saints will still have a full house here for the Chargers.  Look for the Saints to win their first game of the season, but there’s a chance they won’t cover the spread here.  I also think that Vegas has made adjustments for that win here.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME BUT TAKE THE OVER HERE FOR 5 STARS.  Phillip Rivers will put plenty of numbers on the board for San Diego and the hedge covers you with the over if they pull out a win.  TAKE THE OVER HERE FOR 5 STARS.