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ATLANTA(GOOD) -10 OVER OAKLAND (48)(suck) – The Raiders are having some problems moving the football and playing defense. That’s not what you want to hear when going up against maybe one of the top 3 teams in the league. I have them rated as a suck team as you can see. They’ve given up a staggering 134 QB rating so far as a team. The Raiders are coming off a BYE week and should be able to play a little better than they did in a 37-6 loss in Denver two weeks ago. The Raiders have only held the ball an average of 25 minutes per game on offense which means their defense is getting pounded by opposing teams defenses. Their only win came against a weak Pittsburgh team at home three weeks ago. Even Miami’s offense in week 2 put up 35 points on the Raiders. The Raiders have not intercepted a pass yet during the season. Heyward-Bey is back from his head injury and should give Carson Palmer a deep threat for a change. The Falcons are the only 5-0 team in football and I have them currently ranked 3rd in the league in my Power Ratings. Even though the Falcon lost their best CB in Brent Grimes earlier this season, the Falcons pass defense has been exceptional. I doubt the Raiders defense will have an answer for Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense in this game, especially indoors where the crowd is well trained. Look for Tony Gonzalez to break another record this weekend and Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Michael Turner to notch up some yardage. The Falcons lead the league in turnover ratio +10 and in takeaways with 12. I’M GOING TO GIVE ALL THE POINTS HERE AND TAKE THE FALCONS FOR 5 STARS.
BALTIMORE (good) -3 ½ OVER DALLAS (ok-) (44) –The Cowboys are averaging (surprisingly) the second fewest points scored in the league. The Ravens defense is one of the best in the league for sure. Dallas is close to imploding from a team and an organizational standpoint. I don’t understand how they can be so dysfunctional and have so much going for them. They need a GM. Jerry Jones isn’t getting it done. They probably need a head coach and possibly an OC also. QB Tony Romo isn’t the problem as I see it. The problem is their personnel and coaching. The Cowboys have beaten Tampa Bay and the Giants opening day and have lost to the Seahawks and the Bears at home on Monday night. The Cowboys are coming off a BYE week. The Boys are 1-8 in their last 9 years coming off a BYE. The Ravens offense and defense aren’t going to give them much to look forward to where the Ravens are 13-0 their last 13 games at home. Almost kind of New England cheater numbers. The Ravens had an off week, especially their defense, last week against the Chiefs and barely won. I’M GOING TO TAKE THIS VALUE OF -3 ½ HERE AND TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS.
CINCINNATI (OK)-3 ½ OVER CLEVELAND (SUCK)(43) – The Bengals are 3-2 but beating Cleveland, Washington, and Jacksonville isn’t going to get them to the postseason. Last week they lost at home to the Dolphins. If they look forward to the Steelers next week, they’ll lose again this week to the Browns, who they only beat by a touchdown the first time. The Bengals have a better, more experienced QB in Andy Dalton. On the defensive side of the ball, Pro Bowl DT Geno Atkins has 6 sacks already this season. The Browns’ rookie QB Brandon Weeden, although he looks to be improving, has a long way to go. Opposing teams have controlled the ball for over 34 minutes per game against the Browns. Look for Cincy to right the ship this week in a division game on the road where they seem to be comfortable. In 5 games the Browns defense has given up over 700 yards rushing. Look for that to continue and Andy Dalton to go to A.J. Green and company and control this game. The Browns get their best defensive player back this week in CB Joe Haden who sat out 4 games with a suspension for substance abuse. If the Browns are ever going to get it going, it might be this week against the Bengals. Rookie RB Trent Richardson has scored 4 TD’s in 4 games. Cincy’s defense isn’t that good overall. Look for him to get his 5th touchdown today. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS CLOSE GAME.
MIAMI -3 ½(OK) OVER ST. LOUIS(OK+)(38) – The Rams are improving. Everyone can see that. With Jeff Fisher at the helm, they’re going to continue to improve, but it’s going to be a process. They’ve won 3 games this season, but all three wins have come at home, in their own indoor stadium. Their only game outside was in Chicago where they were handled by the Bears 23-6. This week they travel to Miami, where the Dolphins are coming home off of a big win in Cincinnati to bring their record to 2-3. First year HC Joe Philbin has brought in a new offense and a rookie QB in Ryan Tannehill. Reggie Bush has played well this season and gives Philbin’s offense some balance. A big part of St. Louis’ offense has been QB Sam Bradford throwing to WR Danny Amendola. Unfortunately for the Rams, Amendola will be out for a minimum of 4 weeks with an injury. St. Louis RB Steven Jackson still has a sore groin and has been playing but not very effectively. I like the chances of the Dolphins at home this weekend, where they’ve beaten the Rams the past 4 meetings dating back to 1983. They lead the series 9-2. The only problem I see for the Dolphins, which is a big one, is their kicker has missed all 4 FG’s from 47 yards or more. The Rams’ rookie kicker Greg Zuerlein is 13 for 13 and hasn’t missed from over 50 yards this season. Miami WR Brian Hartline has stepped up to become a force moving the football for the Dolphins. I’M STILL GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME. The number is just too good, although it wouldn’t surprise me if the Dolphins win and cover.
COLTS(OK–) +3 ½ AT JETS(OK–) (44) – Two teams going in different directions meet this week at the TV studio called Met Life Stadium in New Rutherford, New Jersey. The Jets have lost two weeks in a row at home to two very good teams in the Houston Texans and the San Francisco 49ers. The problem the Jets have had is stopping the run. I doubt the Colts will be able to match the previous 5 teams the Jets have played in this regard. That should force the Colts to rely on the arm of rookie QB Andrew Luck, who is coming off a great performance last week beating the Packers at home in an emotion filled second half. With Darelle Revis out for the season, the Jets are not nearly as strong of a defense as they’ve been in the past. Colts great receiver Reggie Wayne will be covered mostly by Antonio Cromartie, who has done a great job so far this season covering receivers. Mark Sanchez has the worst numbers in the entire league for a starting QB with a 66.6 QB rating and having completed only 48% of his passes. He should get well a little bit against the Colts defense. They have given up a 10.82 QB rating so far this year. Jets C Nick Mangold is questionable and probably a game time decision but don’t be surprised to see him go. If the Jets lose this game to a Colts team that who are only playing their 2nd game on the road with a rookie QB, there is going to be hell to pay with the media in New York. I see a close game with the Jets probably winning here by about a touchdown, but honestly, they’ve played so badly, it’s hard to say what’s going to happen here. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.
PHILLY -3 ½ (OK) OVER DETROIT (OK-)(47.5) – After beating the Giants two weeks ago, the Eagles lost a tough one to the Steelers last week on the road. This week they come home to play a Detroit team that has struggled at times this year trying to move the football and play defense. The Lions have allowed a 101.3 QB rating through their first four games and are coming off a bye week. The Lions, however, have given up a ton of yardage and a couple of scores on special teams this year. The Lions have yet to intercept a pass this season. They have only caused three total turnovers all season long. Matt Stafford has struggled to throw this season. This game will probably come down to turnovers. When Mike Vick doesn’t turn the ball over, the Eagles win. I don’t see the Lions putting enough pressure on Vick to cause those turnovers Sunday. The Eagles defensive backs have played well this season and I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see the Eagles win this game at home. Most of the money is on the Lions because they’re coming off a bye week and they need the win much more than the Eagles. The Lions need the game some kind of terrible or they’ll end up 1-4 at the start of a season with Minnesota playing extremely well so far. As I’ve said before, the Packers are going nowhere this season. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles played well and covered.
TAMPA BAY -4(OK) OVER KANSAS CITY(OK–) (40.5) – Tampa Bay comes off a tough home loss and a bye week to face a Kansas City team that played the Ravens tough at home last week but only put up 6 points on the scoreboard. KC QB Matt Cassel was injured last week and Brady Quinn gets the start for the Chiefs. He hasn’t started a game since 2009. Quinn can’t be any worse than Cassel has been so far this season. Cassel has been horrible. First year Tampa Bay coach Greg Schiano has implemented a run first offense and his defense has played very tough against the run. If it was up to the defense, the Bucs would be undefeated. The Chiefs are last in the league with a -15 turnover margin. Kansas City has a very strong running game at times but hasn’t been able to stop the turnovers. I see the very physical game with both teams trying to establish control of the clock with their running game. I find it hard to believe that Brady Quinn could lead a team this bad to a win in one game. I’m going to use one of my personal rules of handicapping here and NEVER play a LOUSY team. Neither of these teams are doing much at all so I’LL PASS ON THIS GAME. Tampa should have a slight edge at home.
ARIZONA(OK+) -4 OVER BUFFALO(OK–) (44) Since taking a 21-7 lead a couple of weeks ago against New England, the Bills have been outscored 90-10. Buffalo has maybe the worst defense in the NFL this season. They’ve given up 97 points their last two games, even though those two teams are New England and San Francisco. The Bills give up an AVERAGE of 5.7 yards per carry. Arizona has virtually NO running game but this could be an opportunity for them to get something going. They’ve lost their top two RB’s in Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams to injury. Rod Stephens-Howling gets the start at RB against a team that can be run on. The Cards defense is awesome at times. Cards QB Kevin Kolb has played well at times and should be able to do what he wants throwing to WR Larry Fitzgerald and a good host of others. The key for Arizona will be the left side of their offensive line. If they can give QB Kevin Kolb time, they’ll have some success. The key according to HC Ken Whisenhunt is running the ball effectively. No matter who is in the game, they need to pound the football effectively. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE CARDS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS.
NEW ENGLAND(GOOD) -3 ½ OVER SEATTLE(OK+) (44) – The Pats offense has scored 118 points in last 3 games. Brady is getting warmed up. They are rushing for an incredible 165 yards per game. Their defense is overachieving. Aaron Hernandez may be back this week. The problem they’ll have this week is they travel and go up against a Seattle team that is overachieving right now. Seattle has the top overall defense in the league. Rookie QB Russell Wilson isn’t setting the world on fire yet but he’s not hurting his team either. The Seahawks have yet to lose at home having beaten Tony Romo and Aaron Rodgers already this year. The New England OL is banged up a bit. Logan Mankins may not start this week. You can rush Brady and get to him. Earlier this season, Arizona came to Foxboro and beat the Pats sacking Brady 4 times. Three weeks ago the Seahawks sacked the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers 8 times in the first half. If the Seahawks pass rushers can penetrate and throw Brady to the ground a few times, Seattle could pull the upset. Things don’t get any easier for the Seahawks after this week’s game. Next week they travel to San Francisco to play the 49ers, then the next week to Detroit to play the Lions. The Pats host the Jets next week in Foxboro, then travel to London to play the Rams there. This game may be bigger for the Seahawks than for the Pats. The Pats have a very friendly schedule and the Seahawks schedule is a bitch. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME BECAUSE IT’S JUST TOO CLOSE TO CALL, but a Seattle win wouldn’t surprise me.
SAN FRANCISCO (VG) -6 ½ OVER GIANTS(OK++) (45.5) – I almost never play against the Giants on the road, but this game is different. Last season the Giants ended the 49ers season in their place winning the NFC championship game. If not for a couple of turnovers, the game could have lasted another hour or two in overtime. I’m sure that the Niners have been grinding over this game for a long time. HC Jim Harbaugh is not only going to not let his team lose this game, but he is going to put a hurt on the Giants like nobody else has. These are the two most efficient offenses in the league this season. The last two weeks the 49ers have outscored their opponents 79-3. Last week the Giants spotted the lowly Cleveland Browns a 14-0 lead, then came back and scored 41 points. Except for a hiccup in Minnesota, where the 49ers lost to the Vikings, they’ve dominated their opponents and their defense and their running game is tops in the league. Even with a loss, I have them rated as the top team in the NFL. They’ve rushed for 979 yards already this season. Look for the 49ers to pound the football and tired out the Giants defense and slow down their pass rush. The Niners are AVERAGING 6.1 yards per carry. The Giants are averaging 4.8 yards per carry. Eli Manning is throwing at a 96 QB rating clip. Alex Smith, slightly better at 108.7. The Giants have a few guys out on the defensive side of the ball for this game. Their bet DB Kenny Phillips is out. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE 49ERS IN MY NFL PLAY OF THE WEEK FOR 5 STARS. I’M GOING TO HEDGE THE OVER FOR 3 STARS.
WASHINGTON -1 OVER MINNESOTA (45) – Last week Robert Griffin made a dumb play and instead of throwing the ball away, he slid into contact at the sideline and sustained a concussion. He is supposed to play tomorrow having passed all of his concussion tests this week and taken snaps most of the week. The Redskins can pretty much score with anyone, but their defense leaves a lot to be desired, especially in the defensive backfield. They’ve given up 13 TD passes in 5 games. Last week at home, the Skins played the Falcons tough but allowed the Falcons to control the clock and the ball and rush and pass for plenty of yards to win. Minnesota is a more conservative team. Minny QB Christian Ponder has looked great so far this season and his athleticism along with his maturity as a signal caller has everyone in the Vikings camp excited. Having beaten the 49ers, who I personally think are the best team in the league, was no small task. Their only loss came IN Indy 23-20 earlier this season. The Redskins have rushed for 813 yards and 5.1 yards per carry. They should really run the ball more but their coaching staff is pretty pass happy so they’ll continue to throw and lose probably. Their OL run blocks MUCH BETTER than the pass block. Minnesota’s DL only allows 3.2 yards per carry though. Minny RB Adrian Peterson should get 20 or more carries against the Skins Sunday. It’s going to be a situation where whichever team can control and move the ball without turning it over, will win. This game is pretty much EVEN. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME AND JUST ENJOY WATCHING IT.
HOUSTON(GOOD) -3 ½ OVER GREEN BAY(OK) (47.5) – The Packers are struggling. I’ve said all along this season that they wouldn’t make the playoffs and they weren’t the team that was so strong last season before they lost to the Giants in the playoffs. Now, they’re beat up on their offensive line and can’t protect their QB Aaron Rodgers, who is athletic enough to get some running yards on occasion, but really doesn’t have any time to set up and throw. The Packers have given up a league leading 21 sacks. They signed Cedric Benson as a free agent RB and he went down for the season a couple of weeks ago. They really don’t have another back to go in there. The Texans are undefeated and have handled all of their opponents. Green Bay is as good as anyone they’ve played and last week they lost their best linebacker, Brian Cushing, for the season with a knee injury. The betting line is solid at a great value for the Texans at -3.5. I really think that they’ll be fine on the defensive side of the ball and give Green Bay’s OLine all kinds of problems. Rodgers could put some points on the board for the Packers but will their defense be able to stop Matt Schaub and this very balanced offense of the Texans. I think not. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS. I’M ALSO GOING TO HEDGE WITH THE OVER FOR 5 STARS ALSO.
NHB PLAYS FOR THE DAY
ATLANTA -10 OVER OAKLAND 4 STARS
BALTIMORE -3 ½ OVER DALLAS 4 STARS
ARIZONA -4 OVER BUFFALO 4 STARS
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS- -6 ½ OVER GIANTS 5 STARS**
MINNESOTA +1 OVER REDSKINS 4 STARS
HOUSTON -3 ½ OVER GREEN BAY 4 STARS
INDY-JETS OVER 44 POINTS 5 STARS
GIANTS OVER 45 POINTS 3 STARS