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Pro Football Pick-Em – Picking against the spread

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GREEN BAY -5 ½ AT ST. LOUIS (45 ½) – According to my sources right now, the Packers have 91% of all the money in Vegas bet on them. If that’s the case, the number will have to climb soon in order to even out the betting or a cover by the Rams will be intense for the bookmakers. It’s amazing how quickly in one week the overall feeling by the community can change so quickly.  I’m still not convinced that Green Bay is all that good.  Sure, they kicked the crap out of Houston last week, but that was right after Houston lost their best defensive player.  The Packers coaching staff obviously had a great game plan for Houston.  But they’re not going to sneak up on anyone now.  The Rams have played well this season, especially on the defensive side and especially at home indoors.  However, Aaron Rodgers has the best passer rating indoors of any quarterback that ever played in the NFL (115.9) There IS  a reason for that. He’s very comfortable playing indoors and on turf.  Last week the Packers went almost exclusively no-huddle to keep the defense on the field and not give them any rest. It seemed to work for them.  The Packers are coming off a great game and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they continued to score in the red zone this week.  The Rams have a problem in the red zone, ranked 29^th in the league in that category.  The Rams are 3-0 at home this season.  The Packers are playing their 3^rd road game in a row having lost to the Colts in Indy and having won big last week in Houston.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS.  I DON’T LIKE GOING AGAINST RODGERS INDOORS AND I DON’T THINK BRADFORD CAN PUT UP ENOUGH POINTS WITH HIS OFFENSIVE WEAPONS.  THERE AREN’T ENOUGH OF THEM. STILL, I WOULDN’T BE SURPRISED IF THE PACKERS AND RODGERS ROLL HERE.

BUFFALO -3 OVER TENNESSEE (46 ½) – The Bills can compete with lousy teams and Tennessee qualifies as a lousy team. Both of these teams should be able to move the ball on the other team’s defense.  The Bills are coming off an exciting road victory against the Arizona Cardinals, who have played well this season, especially their defense.  RB C.J. Spiller averages 7.6 yards per carry for the Bills.  Fred Jackson when he’s healthy is one of the best backs in the league.  QB Ryan Fitzpatrick should have his way this week against the Titans defense.  The Titans are coming off a last minute win against the Pittsburgh Steelers, never an easy team to beat, but the Steelers are banged up pretty badly.  On the road the Titans are 0-3 being outscored 106-31. Their schedule, however, has been brutal and this may be the worst team they’ve played this season, so they have THAT working for them.  Tennessee beat Buffalo last season in Buffalo by a score of 23-17.  It looks like Matt Hasselbeck will get the start again for the Titans at QB.  He seems to be improving each week as Jake Locker is recovering from an injury.  Chris Johnson can break a long run anytime with his speed and quickness and he will get some yards. However, I don’t think the Titans defense has a chance against the offense in Buffalo against the Bills.  The Bills just have too many weapons. This is a HUGE game for the Bills and they may be scoring points in bunches Sunday.   I’M GOING TO TAKE THE BILLS MINUS THE 3 POINTS AT HOME TO WIN THE GAME AND COVER THE SPREAD FOR 5 STARS.

INDY -1½ OVER CLEVELAND (46) – Without any real kind of running game last week, the Colts were crushed by the Jets 35-9.  RB Donald Brown is out again this week and they could be in for some trouble from an upstart Browns team who welcomed a new owner this week and said goodbye to GM Mike Holmgren. The Browns have new life and it shows.  HC Pat Shurmur has seen his “rookie” QB Brandon Weeden improve dramatically in the last few weeks.  Last week they beat division foe Cincinnati and the week before they were competitive with the World Champion New York Giants.  They got their best defensive player back last week in Joe Haden and it made a big difference quickly.  Rookie RB Trent Richardson has given them a shot in the arm running the football and has 4 TD’s this season.  He has also caught 22 balls out of the backfield.  Montario Hardesty should get some touches at RB if Richardsons ribs haven’t gotten any better. Weeden has a long line of young receivers who are getting separation from the defense.   The Colts rank 29^th in the league against the run, giving up 5 yards a pop and 8 TD’s already this season.  On Special Teams you have to give the edge to the Browns who are ranked 2^nd in the league with a 29.5 yard kickoff return average and 17.1 yards per punt return.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BUT WOULDN’T BE A BIT SURPRISED IF THE BROWNS GOT THEIR SECOND WIN IN A ROW ON THE ROAD AGAINST AN INDY TEAM WITHOUT A LOT OF TOOLS.

DALLAS -2 AT CAROLINA (45 ½) – I’m still in shock at how the Cowboys lost last week when they pretty much totally outplayed the Ravens in Baltimore.  Clock mismanagement and turnovers were key in the loss but the Boys rushed for 227 yards, the most EVER against the Baltimore Ravens.  Their kicker missed a 51 yard field goal at the end of the game to seal the loss.  Romo was good but not great.  He still turns the ball over too much.  The Dallas defense has only picked off one pass all season.  This is from a defensive secondary that Rob Ryan said would be awesome.  Well, so far, not so awesome having given up a 97.7 QB rating through 5 games.  Coming off a bye week, I expect the Panthers will have worked on some nagging problems they’ve had so far this season.  They’ll also have to replace their all pro center Ryan Khalil with their right guard.  It’s always tough for a QB lining up behind a different center.  The Panthers have had a fairly tough schedule having played the Giants, Falcons, and Seahawks three straight weeks before the bye.  If the Cowboys run the ball the way they did last week in Baltimore, it’s going to be a very long day for the Panthers defense.  Dallas RB Felix Jones should be able to step right in like he did last week and run effectively for the Cowboys replacing the injured DeMarco Murray.  Dez Bryant, who caught 13 passes last week, and Jason Witten have combined for 61 catches this season.  Austin and Ogletree have done a good job also.  The Cowboys have won 4 straight games in Charlotte and there will be PLENTY of Cowboys fans at the game.  Look for the Panthers offense to try to establish the run early to keep the pressure off QB Cam Newton and his passing offense. Carolina WR Steve Smith has yet to catch a TD pass from Newton.   D’Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart haven’t done much so far to help out the offense.  Speaking of DeAngelo Williams, did you know that he and Hall of Famer Jim Brown are the only RB’s in NFL history to average more than 5 yards per carry with 1,000 minimum carries??  DAMN!   I’m sure Cam Newton won’t go silently but I don’t see any way the Panthers beat the Cowboys in this spot when the Cowboys need the game so badly.   I’M TAKING THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS HERE.  THEY PLAY BETTER ON THE ROAD ANYWAY AND THEY NEED THE GAME SOME KIND OF TERRIBLE.  THEY ARE THE BETTER TEAM HERE. A LOSS WILL PUT THE COWBOYS RECORD AT 2-4. HEADS WOULD ROLL.

TAMPA BAY +2 ½ OVER NEW ORLEANS (49½) – I don’t really like Greg Schiano much personally but there’s one thing I do like about his coaching.  The Bucs have been in EVERY GAME they’ve played this season.  They lost a very close game to the Redskins before the bye week, then came out last week and covered big for us with a 38-10 win over Kansas City.  They have made running the football a priority in their offense and time of possession.  Rookie Doug Martin and LeGarrette Blount have combined for over 400 yards of rushing so far.  Last week Mike Williams had a monster game receiving the football and is a good number 2 receiver opposite Vincent Jackson.  New Orleans has had their share of problems this season.  The lack of coaching leadership, the injuries, the penalties, but most of all the lack of defense.  The Saints have lost to Washington, Kansas City, Carolina, and Green Bay.  They’ve played much better their last two games and have had a bye week.  Their focus has been on tackling and running the football.  They still have Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, and Darren Sproles coming out of their backfield, all big time weapons.  They still have Jimmy Graham at TE.  Their biggest problem has been stopping their opponents.  Their defense is giving up a 104.5 QB rating and their front 7 is giving up 5 yards per carry.  Drew Brees has a 90.7 QB rating so far this season.  The Saints offense, if they can stay healthy, will continue to improve and should be pretty effective. However, my gut tells me that this Bucs team is finding its identity and will continue to play good hard-nosed football. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME, BUT I LIKE THE BUCS HERE AT HOME CONTROLLING THE BALL AND BEING ABLE TO SCORE ENOUGH POINTS TO BEAT THE SAINTS.  A WIN HERE WOULD BRING THEM TO 3-3 ON THE SEASON.  THIS IS NOT A BAD TEAM AND THEY ARE IMPROVING. THE SAINTS DEFENSE MAY BE AS GOOD AS THEY ARE GOING TO GET. LOOK FOR A BUNCH OF POINTS TO BE SCORED HERE ON SUNDAY.

MINNESOTA -7 OVER ARIZONA (40 ½) – The Cards are coming off two losses in a row after a 4-0 start and need to stop the bleeding quickly here. John Skelton gets the start here this week with Kevin Kolb injured last week.  With a lack of a real starting RB, the Cards offense is in bad shape. Three is no reason anyone in the league should only score 16 points against the Buffalo Bills.  The Vikings, also 4-2 on the year, have been a pleasant surprise in the NFC North this season. They come off a loss in Washington against RG3 and the upstart Redskins offense.  Starting QB Christian Ponder has been very good so far this season and with the help of RB Adrian Peterson and a group of decent receivers, they should be able to outscore the Cards at home.  Two weeks ago in a similar situation, the Cards lost to the Rams 17-3 indoors at their place.  The Cards record in the Metrodome is 0-7.  The Vikings defense led by DL pass rusher Jared Allen should be able to keep Skelton in check and easily outscore the Cards and win at home. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS HERE.

HOUSTON -7 OVER BALTIMORE (45½) –  Last week in a game where they were completely outplayed by the Cowboys but found a way to win, the Ravens have to play without their defensive leader Ray Lewis who is out indefinitely with a torn triceps muscle, and their best cornerback in Ladarius Webb.  Without NFL 2011 Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs all season long, the Ravens defense has been a work in progress all season long. Now with those two players gone, keeping the other offense in check could be a problem. This week the Ravens travel to play the team that outplayed them in the playoffs last year and lost, the Houston Texans.  Houston is coming off a beating they took against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.  The Texans lost their best defensive player two weeks ago in Brian Cushing.  One would think that Ravens QB Joe Flacco could execute a game plan similar to what the Packers did last week and be successful but it’s not that easy.  However, the Ravens have a more balanced offensive attack with RB Ray Rice included than do the Packers, so they may be able to move the ball effectively against the Cushingless Texans.  Two 5-1 teams that are known for their defense may very well get into a shootout this weekend.  Houston has a big weapon of their own in RB Arian Foster, maybe the best RB in the league. Both QB’s have an excellent group of receivers to throw to.  If the Texans can limit the big plays of the Ravens offense (Baltimore leads the NFL with 34 plays over 20 yards), they should come out with a win here.  Ray Lewis isn’t even making the trip to Houston, which I find hard to believe.   I’M GOING TO HAMMER THE OVER IN THIS GAME AND LEAVE THE GAME ALONE.  HOUSTON NEEDS THE GAME SOME KIND OF TERRIBLE COMING INTO THEIR BYE WEEK.  THE RAVENS ALSO HEAD INTO THEIR BYE WEEK. TAKE THE OVER 45 ½ POINTS FOR 5 STARS.

WASHINGTON +6 AT NEW YORK GIANTS (51) – This may very well be the best game of the day to watch on Sunday. Right now the Giants are in late season form having just embarrassed the San Francisco 49ers at the Stick 26-3 last week.  The Giants are a very good football team. Eli Manning has not been sacked in 3 games.  The Redskins don’t put much pressure on opposing QB’s.  That doesn’t help them with their lousy secondary.  The Skins and their phenomenal rookie QB Robert Griffin, are coming off a home win where Griffin threw and ran for over 300 yards. He is doing things right now that nobody has ever seen before in the league. The difference in the game Sunday will not so much be the offenses, which are both very good, but the defenses and the differences in the two.  Washington’s defense isn’t really able to stop anyone because of the weak secondary which they have to put out onto the field. Eli Manning and the Giants offense should be able to have their way against the Redskins defense.  The reverse may not be true. Even though RG3 should be able to move the ball on occasion and hopefully score, the Giants defense has played much better so far this season against some very good opponents.  I’M GOING TO RELEASE THE GIANTS MINUS THE POINTS HERE FOR 3 STARS.  In Vegas the line is 50/50 on the spread which is a perfect number (6). I think that coming off the big win in San Francisco, the Giants will be looking to continue with the tough defense and balanced scoring.

NEW YORK JETS +10 ½ AT NEW ENGLAND (47½) – The Pats lost last week against a tough Seattle team they should have beaten.  Their defense ended up costing them the game. I don’t see that happening against the 30^th offense in the league in the Jets. Starting QB Mark Sanchez has completed LESS than 50% of his passes this season.  The Jets beat Indy last week convincingly but Indy is Indy and they were coming off an emotional win the week before against the Packers at home. The Jets defense is not very good. Sure, they can play with the Colts, but this is Tom Brady and the New England Patriots here. Jets LB Bart Scott is playing in his 116^th consecutive game.  Pats WR Wes Welker is on fire.   The Pats offense should be able to move the ball at will against a Jets defense missing some pieces, especially on the ground.  Like I said before, the Jets have the 30^th ranked defense in the league.  Look for Pats RBs Stevan Ridley and Danny Woodhead to get plenty of touches on Sunday.  Both teams are 3-3 so in essence they’re playing for 1^st place in the division.  Neither team has much of a schedule ahead of them but the Pats are the far better team here, both offensively and now, defensively. The Pats have won 9 division games in a row in Foxboro. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that the Pats are going to win and cover here against the Jets.  Brady and the Pats defense need a good game here.  TAKE THE PATS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS HERE. I JUST SEE THIS BEING AN ASSAULT BY BRADY, THE OFFENSE, AND THE DEFENSE AGAINST A BELOW AVERAGE JETS TEAM.

OAKLAND -6 OVER JACKSONVILLE (45) – The Raiders haven’t beaten the Jaguars since 1996, but Jacksonville has been outscored 99-16 their last three trips to the West Coast.  This is a game that has good matchups for the Raiders. The Raiders’ Carson Palmer throws out of the pocket and is having a decent season.  The Jags don’t pressure the QB at all. They have 3 total sacks for the season.  They’re coming off two losses and a bye week.  Their team’s best weapon is Maurice Jones-Drew their premier running back.  MJD will get some yards but that won’t be enough to beat Oakland.  Last week the Raiders had the undefeated Falcons on the ropes, only to lose late in the game.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE RAIDERS MINUS THE POINTS TO COVER AT HOME AGAINST THE JAGS.

PITTSBURGH -1 AT CINCINNATI (45) – The Steelers are thin. Not emaciated, but almost anorexic thin. No running backs, banged up offensive line. Banged up defense. But they’ll show up and give 100% every week no matter who they play.  A loss today against interdivision rival Cincinnati would put them 3 or 4  doesn’t get much better.  Cincinnati, who a lot of “experts” picked to win 11 games this year, hasn’t looked like the team people expected.  Their defense, besides a decent pass rush, has struggled in the secondary.  On the offensive side of the ball for the Bengals, nobody has been able to stop WR A.J. Green yet this year.  He is averaging over 100 yards per game in reception yardage. He’s caught 6 TDs already and this is with a lot of double teams. Look for TE Jermaine Gresham to have a big day against a defense playing without Troy Palomalu.  Except for 9 picks, second year QB Andy Dalton has done a pretty good job.  He just has to stop the turnovers because his Bengals defense can’t afford to be on the field too much.  Ben Roethlisberger is so tough you know he’s gonna show up and lead his Steelers offense.  His numbers passing are very good this season.  He’s only thrown 2 picks but the usual Steelers running game has been absent. Mendenhall and Redman are both out for this game.  I have no idea who will start at RB but he’s in for a fun time.  I wouldn’t doubt if the Steelers put the ball in the air 50 times Sunday.  They might have to.  The Bengals pass defense is suspect at best but they do rush the passer well.  They lead the NFL with 20 sacks so far this season.  Geno Atkins has 6 and Michael Johnson has 5.   If the Bengals can’t beat this incredibly beat up Steelers team at home, they have no chance later this year anyway.  I’M GOING TO PLAY THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINT FOR 3 STARS HERE.  LOOK FOR A LOT OF PASSING IN THIS GAME TODAY.