WEEK 5 NFL MATCHUPS

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ST. LOUIS +1 ½OVER ARIZONA (38) – Well, if you called Thursday for this play, you were one of the 15% in the country who were happy after the end of the game.  Arizona’s 4-0 start wasn’t an illusion but the Rams had won both home games against decent teams and just added the Cardinals to their list, winning 17-3.  Zona QB Kevin Kolb was sacked 8 times during the game and has set an NFL mark of 16 sacks in two games. Will he be sore? Oh yeah, he’s sore, but he’ll be back if HC Ken Whisenhunt wants him there.  It’s nice to have ONE WIN going into the weekend. WINNER!!

MIAMI +3 AT CINCINNATI (45) – The Dolphins have lost two OT games in a row and I see some good things when I watch them play. Their defense, although it’s not ranked real high, has performed well most of the time. They’ve only given up 227 yards in 4 games rushing and their pass defense is adequate.  Reggie Bush is questionable for the game but if he plays, and I’m pretty sure he will, the Bengals will have their hands full with the Miami offense.  Ryan Tannehill finally got off against the Cards defense, which is a good defense, and threw for over 400 yards last week.  WR Brian Hartline has caught 25 passes for 455 yards so far this season and a touchdown.  I love the underdog Dolphins in Cincy against a Bengals team that I think is grossly overrated.  The Bengals defense is not good.  They’re giving up 5.4 yards a carry and opposing QB’s have a 102 QB rating.  I watched the Redskins lose to them but move the ball almost at will against them.  The Bengals really haven’t beaten anyone yet!  Cleveland, Washington, and Jacksonville are going nowhere this season.  TAKE THE DOLPHINS WHO CAN TACKLE TO BEAT THE BENGALS IN A CLOSE HIGH SCORING GAME. CHECK THE WEATHER BEFORE TAKING THE OVER. I LIKE THE DOLPHINS FOR 3 STARS HERE AND WEATHER PERMITTING THE OVER ALSO.

GREEN BAY -7 AT INDIANAPOLIS (48) – This game could be interesting if the Colts can move the football, not turn it over, and play a little defense.  That’s a lot to ask of a weak but slowly improving team.  The good news is they are at home but the Packers faithful will be everywhere in the stands for this game and coming off a nailbiter against the Saints last week in New Orleans, I’m not really sure what kind of team we’re looking at in Green Bay.  Personally, I think they’re terribly overrated, as is this line from Vegas of 7 points.  Colts offensive coordinator Bruce Arians takes over as head coach after HC Chuck Pagano was dignosed with leukemia this past week.  How the Colts respond to this will be important. Pagano is a defensive coach and he will be missed on that side of the ball, but as a cancer survivor himself, he knows what his coach is going through.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME FEELING THAT THERE ARE JUST TOO MANY UNKNOWNS GOING INTO THE GAME, BUT I’LL BE ROOTING FOR ANDREW LUCK AND HIS TEAMMATES IN THIS ONE.

BALTIMORE – 6 ½ AT KANSAS CITY (47 ½) – The Ravens have had a couple of days extra to prepare and rest up for this road trip to K.C. These two teams are far apart when it comes to pecking order.  Personally, I don’t think the Chiefs are any good.  Sure, they have some talent. Jamaal Charles is averaging 5.8 yards a carry.  Dwayne Bowe is a solid receiver. But besides those two, I see nothing to be excited about no matter where the Chiefs play.  Unless GM Scott Paoli and HC Romeo Crennel, former Patriot employees, start cheating like the Pats have and probably still do, they’re just going to be an average team at best.  EVERYONE who has left the safe haven of Foxboro after coaching in New England has not been successful. Matt Cassel, who got a big contract in K.C. after having BETTER numbers than Tom Brady a few years ago when Brady was injured, has a QB rating of 70.4.  He has 5 TD’s and 7 picks.  The Chiefs have been crushed by Buffalo and San Diego, both average teams this season at best.  Their only win comes against Drew Brees and his beleaguered Saints team who EVERYONE has beaten this season.  6 ½ points is a lot of points to spot on the road but I’m going to do it anyway.  The Ravens have Joe Flacco and his offense who can move the football against most anybody.  Ray Rice can carry the ball 10 or 35 times and dominate a game.  Their defensive backfield may be the best in the NFL right now.  I’M TAKING THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS AGASINT THIS LOUSY CHIEFS TEAM.

MINNESOTA – 5 ½ OVER TENNESSEE (44 ½) – The Vikings are slowly but surely improving their squad and gaining an identity as a tough team, especially at home.  Two weeks ago they beat a team I picked to be in the Super Bowl this season and one of the top two teams in the league in the 49ers.  Last week on the heels of that win, they traveled to Ford Field in Detroit and physically beat up on the Lions who many thought would win the North Division of the NFC this season.  Christian Ponder is supposed to start this week even though he’s knicked up a bit and if Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin continue to make big plays, the Titans shouldn’t be much of an obstacle for the Vikings to take their record to 4-1.   Jake Locker is out for this game so Matt Hasselbeck will get the start at QB for Tennessee. Tennessee has been outscored on the road 76-24 this season.  I don’t see them getting well against the Vikings.  The Vikings DL has 12 sacks so far and Jared Allen only has 2 of them.  Look for Allen to get off this weekend.  I’M TAKING THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS HERE.

GIANTS -8 OVER CLEVELAND (45) – The line started at -13 but moved to -8 during the week.  The Giants have many starters out for this game and even though the Browns aren’t going anywhere this season, they have showed that they play hard and have some players.  Rookie QB Brandon Weeden has struggled most of the season.  All of it isn’t his fault. One of his best receivers, Mohammed Massaquoi has hardly played this season, now out with a hamstring injury.  Rookie RB Trent Richardson has played well but is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry with 3 TD’s.  Richardson is also Weeden’s leading receiver.  Last week the Browns hung tough with the Ravens in Baltimore.  That isn’t done easily.  The majority of the money in Vegas is on the Browns believe it or not.  WR’s Ramses Barden and Hakeem Nicks are both out this week for the Giants.  On the defense, Jayron Hosley and Kenny Phillips are both out also. I’M GONNA PASS ON THIS GAME EVEN THOUGH ELI WILL PROBABLY BRING A WIN HOME FOR THE FANS .  I don’t like to play the Giants when they’re at home to begin with.

 

 

PITTSBURGH -3 ½ OVER PHILLY (43) – Last week Michael Vick and the Eagles held on to defeat the Giants in Philly in a game that could have gone either way.  Vick looked good because he didn’t turn the ball over, even though he did nothing outstanding.  I think that’s the Mike Vick Andy Reid wants to see this season.  Pittsburgh coming off the bye week has Harrison, Polamulu, and Mendenhall coming back this week from injuries.  If they’re not ready for a team like the Eagles now, they may never be ready.  Another loss takes the Steelers to a 1-3 record, somewhere they have probably never been in recent years.  I usually like Phily on the road but this week there are some facts that stick out to me.  First of all, the Steelers have gone 38 games without losing two games in a row.  They’ve also won 9 out of their last 10 home games.  However, Todd Haley is not the answer for the offense as an offensive coordinator.  I’m not sure why they hired him to work with Roethlisberger but I’ll be surprised if it works out.  I’m also not convinced the return of two players who can’t be in very good shape, is going to improve what so far has been a below average Pittsburgh D.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME.

ATLANTA -3 AT WASHINGTON (48 ½) – This doesn’t look like a very good matchup for the Redskins this weekend.  The Falcons, led by QB Matt Ryan, are 4-0 and their offense has been near impossible to stop. They beat the Chargers two weeks ago by a 27-3 margin in San Diego on grass. This week they travel to Washington to play on grass against a team that’s defensive backfield has had substantial problems trying to defend the pass at all.  Now Washington faces an excellent passing game of Ryan to Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez.  Ryan has thrown 11 TD’s and only two picks.  The Redskins have given up 11 TD’s already this season.  The weather is supposed to be miserable so that might help the Redskins.  The Redskins have rushed for 702 yards in 4 games and Robert Griffin has thrown at a 103.2 QB rating clip.  Last week against Carolina, the Falcons came from behind to win the game scoring with less than a minute left from their own 1 yard line.  If they let RG3 and the Skins stay close, anything can happen.  Check the weather but I’m GONNA PASS ON THIS GAME.

CAROLINA -3 OVER SEATTLE (42.5) – For Carolina to have a chance in this game, they’ll need to unleash some kind of running game against a defense that is quick and athletic in Seattle.  Seattle beat Dallas and Green Bay, then lost a tough game in St. Louis last week.  This week they come east to Charlotte in what could be some nasty weather. The Seahawks are gonna have to run the football successfully to set up any kind of a passing game from Russell Wilson.  The return of RB Jonathan Stewart helps the Panthers and Cam Newton should find some passing lanes like he did last week against the Falcons.  If Marshawn Lynch can move the chains, it will make a win more likely for Seattle.  Lynch is key.  Check the weather tomorrow for this game. I’M GONNA PASS ON THIS GAME FOR SURE.

CHICAGO -5 ½ AT JACKSONVILLE (42.5) – Except for a 2nd week blip in the radar against a Packers team that sacked Jay Cutler 8 times in the first half, the Bears have played well in their 3 wins this season.  Last Monday night in Dallas, they picked off Tony Romo 5 times and beat the Cowboys 34-18.  This week they go against the worst offense in the league in Jacksonville.  Maurice Jones-Drew IS the offense for the Jags getting the ball over half the time either running or receiving.  I doubt that Jacksonville can spread the ball enough around to keep the Bears from making sure Jones-Drew doesn’t hurt them too badly. Matt Forte should have a field day against the Jags.   All the money is on the Bears in Vegas both money and straight up. I’M GONNA PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE EVERY TIME I LIKE THE BEARS, THEY SCREW ME.

 

NEW ENGLAND -6 ½ OVER DENVER (52) – Denver’s losses are to two undefeated teams, the Texans and the Falcons.  The Pats two losses are by a total of 3 points to Arizona (who was undefeated) and the Ravens on a last second field goal.  The Pats return home fresh off a 52-28 victory over the Bills on the road.  In the past two games they’ve scored a total of 82 points.  The Pats also have discovered their running game again with two RB’s last week who rushed for 247 yards.  Bill Belichick is 5-10 lifetime against the Broncos.  Peyton Manning has thrown for 8 TD’s in his last two games against New England, but usually, the Pats have had their way with him.   Peyton has struggled with going downfield since he’s come back. His arm strength is OK, but he really doesn’t have that many receivers who can stretch the field.  However, the Pats defense isn’t all that great.  I can see Brady scoring on the Denver defense and the Broncos trying to keep it close.  I’m going to take the Pats MINUS THE POINTS natural here for4 stars.  Weather permitting it might be a good hedge to take the over here for a little bit.

SAN FRANCISCO -10 OVER BUFFALO (45) – The 49ers are coming off a cross country two weeks where they lost in Minnesota, then stayed in Ohio and practiced and DESTROYED the New York Jets last week.  After a hiccup against the Minnesota Vikings two weeks ago, I look for San Francisco to flex some muscle and some talent at home for the fans this week.  Buffalo is going to have to replace their right guard and left tackle this week after they went out last week with injuries.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is OK at QB, but he’ll have his hands full in the Bay with this 49ers defense.  The Bills might get Fred Jackson back and RB C.J. Spiller can run the football, but a team that loses to the Jets by 20 isn’t going to stay close to this 49ers team. I’M GONNA TAKE THE 49ERS FOR 5 STARS HERE.

NEW ORLEANS -3 ½ OVER SAN DIEGO (53.5) – The Saints have had a rough time. Let’s leave it at that. Everyone knows the story and Bounty-Gate and all of that. What a lot of people don’t know is that Drew Brees made most of this happen to himself, he and his agent.  Brees is just starting to look like he’s ready for the season behind center.  They looked better last week against Green Bay than they have all season long.  The Chargers have beaten teams with a combined record of 3-9 so far. The Saints will still have a full house here for the Chargers.  Look for the Saints to win their first game of the season, but there’s a chance they won’t cover the spread here.  I also think that Vegas has made adjustments for that win here.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME BUT TAKE THE OVER HERE FOR 5 STARS.  Phillip Rivers will put plenty of numbers on the board for San Diego and the hedge covers you with the over if they pull out a win.  TAKE THE OVER HERE FOR 5 STARS.

NFL POWER RANKINGS – AFTER WEEK 4

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  1. HOUSTON TEXANS – Complete balanced offense. Can’t look ahead to Green Bay and Baltimore.
  2. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS – Hiccup in Minnesota but still a Super Bowl team in my opinion. Best D.
  3. ATLANTA FALCONS – 4-0 and lots of offense. Defense has made the difference. RG3 this week.
  4. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES – They’ve beaten the Ravens and the Giants already, but will Vick last?
  5. BALTIMORE RAVENS – 3-1 but second best in the AFC. Flacco and their defense the difference.
  6. NEW ENGLAND PATS – Close losses to Zona and Ravens. Getting offense together. Brady tough.
  7. NEW YORK GIANTS – Close losses to Dallas and Philly. Big game October 14 at 49ers. Eli tough.
  8. MINNESOTA VIKINGS – Late mistakes in Indy cost them 4-0 start. Beat 49ers and Detroit. Tough.
  9. ARIZONA CARDINALS – Lose in St. Louis but 4 wins are all against good teams. Will stick around.
  10. DENVER BRONCOS – Lose to Atlanta and Houston but are getting better every week. Peyton.
  11. CINCINNATI BENGALS – Playing better. Defense coming around. Still a long way to go. Dalton.
  12. GREEN BAY PACKERS – The Pack is overrated in my opinion. Three game road swing starting.
  13. PITTSBURGH STEELERS – Getting some studs back this week. Coming off bye. Should be tough.
  14. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS – Not that good but are 3-1. Big game this weekend. Crushed by Atlanta
  15. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS – 2-2 but better than that. Weak offense but great D. Lynch stud. Pete??
  16. CHICAGO BEARS – Lost to Pack and beat lousy teams. Have another lousy team this week..win.
  17. ST. LOUIS RAMS – Beat a good Zona team. Now 3-2 and line up some good teams.  Fish the diff.
  18. WASHINGTON REDSKINS – RG3 making the difference. Defense is weak. Big game vs. Atlanta TW
  19. NEW YORK JETS – Lose Revis, Holmes.  Weak OL and defense gonna make for long yr. Rex????
  20. MIAMI DOLPHINS – Best 1-3 team in league. Tough defense. Offense improving. Lost 2 OT gms.
  21. BUFFALO BILLS – Defense is killing them. Thin on offense but can score. Probably no chance
  22. DETROIT LIONS – Biggest disappointment in the league. Stafford lost. D lost. Schwartz losing it.
  23. DALLAS COWBOYS – Honestly have them rated as a SUCK team. Dysfunctional unit. Garrett????
  24. INDY COLTS – Luck coming along fine. Coming off bye week. Defense improving. Pack this week.
  25. TAMPA BAY BUCS – HC Schiano kind of a prick. Might be a cheater too. Freeman struggling.
  26. CAROLINA PANTHERS – Weak team. Cam in therapy. Many problems.  Where’s the defense?
  27. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS – Brees will break Unitas record this week. No more. Coaches there TW.
  28. CLEVELAND BROWNS – Brutal schedule. Playing everyone tough. Should keep this close in NY.
  29. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS – MJD and nothing else. Get no QB pressure. Defense struggling too.
  30. TENNESSEE TITANS – BRUTAL schedule. Lost to N.E., S.D. and Houston.  Don’t see the defense.
  31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS – Chiefs SUCK. Averaging 5.6 yards per carry and can’t win. Defense???
  32. OAKLAND RAIDERS – Pass defense non-existent. Weak running game.  Will take some time.

 

WEEK 4 NFL MATCHUPS

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ATLANTA -7 OVER CAROLINA (47 ½) – The Falcons are for real coming off a 27-3 win at San Diego last weekend.  Matt Ryan is 27-6 at home and the Falcons have way too much offense for the Panthers defense to handle.  Personally, I don’t see just a 7 point spread here.  DC Mike Nolan is getting through to his defense this season.  This is a simple, classic, good vs. suck team with the good team at home.  I’m going to TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS HERE. Even if the Panthers come back hard here, they lose.

NEW ENGLAND -4 AT BUFFALO (50 ) – Last weekend, the Pats took the Ravens at their place to the max, losing barely on a field goal that barely stayed inside the crossbar.  However, the Ravens were playing their 4th game in 18 days and they STILL won the game.  There’s a chance that Buffalo’s C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson might play Sunday. Personally, I doubt either of them does.  If they’re not ready to go, Tashard Choice will get the start.  The last time the Pats lost 3 games in a row was 2002.  It has been 145 games since the Pats were below .500 at anytime during a season.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME FOR A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST OF ALL, BUFFALO ISN’T THAT GOOD AND SECOND, THE PATS ARE COMING OFF TWO LOSSES.

MINNESOTA +4 AT DETROIT (48.5) – Two teams going different directions here. Minnesota is getting better. They have a quickly improving signal caller in Christian Ponder, who has a 104.9 QB rating just having led his Vikings to a win over maybe the best team in the NFC last weekend, the San Francisco 49ers.  There’s a good chance that Matt Stafford won’t play this weekend and if that’s the case, Shaun Hill gets the start and that could be a problem for the Lions.  Neither team stops the pass much and Percy Harvin of Minnesota leads the league with 27 receptions.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER IN THIS GAME FOR SURE FOR 4 STARS.

HOUSTON -12 OVER TENNESSEE (46) – Houston is 3-0 for the first time ever in their history. However, the 3 teams they’ve beaten have a combined record of 3-6 which doesn’t mean so much.  Tennessee is also 1-2 coming off their first win of the season a 44-41 OT win in Detroit.  Tennessee hasn’t been able to get their running game going at all.  Chris Johnson has rushed 33 times for a 1.4 yard average.  Ponder has thrown well, but their defensive backfield has allowed the highest QB rating in the league, 119 points.  I really don’t see any way the Titans can keep up with the Texans especially at their place.  The Titans have gone up against three good QB’s in Brady, Rivers, and Stafford. However, I’m gonna take the Texans here minus the points to dominate this game at home.  3 STARS on the TEXANS SUNDAY.

SAN DIEGO -1.5 AT KANSAS CITY (44.5) – Norv Turner’s Chargers wet the bed last weekend at home when the Atlanta Falcons came to town.  The Falcons, who are good for sure, have won 6 in a row in San Diego.  He Chiefs and Romeo Crennel lost at home to the Falcons also, but also went to Buffalo and lost to a weak Bill team, then won an OT game in New Orleans with a bunch of second half points.  The Chargers have lost two straight games in Kansas City.  The Chiefs will face their fourth good quarterback in four weeks this weekend.  Personally, I think this game is a tossup.

 

SAN FRANCISCO -4 AT JETS (43) – After starting the season with a 48-28 win over Buffalo, Mark Sanchez is 31 for 72  for 444 yards and two TD’s and two Intereptions.  Derell Revis is out for the season.  The 49ers have a better offense, defense, and special teams than the Jets who will be working hard to keep the 49ers offense off the field.  Frank Gore is averaging 5.9 yards per carry.  The Jets are struggling to run the ball effectively.  After losing last week in Minnesota, the 49ers practiced all week in Youngstown, Ohio to get used to the time zone difference.  Look for the 49ers to bounce back strong and completely dominate the Jets at their place on Sunday.  TAKE THE 49ERS MINUST THE 4 FOR 5 STARS.

SEATTLE PICK AT ST. LOUIS (43) – Seattle will always be remembered for the “catch” in the “replacement refs” final game. These two teams are both teams of the future. Both have good head coaches who are going to the Super Bowl one day. I picked St. Louis to be there in 2016 already. However, they both need some help.  Seattle’s offense is mosltly one dimensional with a great running game with Marshawn Lynch led by rookie Russell Wilson, who is decent already, but has a long way to go and is short some receivers anyway.  He Rams defense is adequate, but that’s it. They have some holes in it even though they’ve added some players who have helped.  I’m looking for a letdown on the road for the Seahawks going into St. Louis where they’re coming off a 23-6 loss in Chicago. Fisher will have them ready.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME HOWEVER.

ARIZONA -6 OVER MIAMI (41) – The Cards are 3-0 for the first time since 1974 when Jim Hart was QB and they were in St. Louis.  The Dolphins are hurting and coming off a tough overtime loss to the Jets at home.  They also lost the services of Reggie Bush with a knee injury.  Their passing offense is non-existent.  The Cards will not have RB Beanie Wells, but can do just fine with Ryan Fitzpatrick in his place.  The Cards defense may be the best in the league and should have fun putting pressure on rookie QB Ryan Tannehill in the desert. TAKE THE CARDS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS TO GO 4-0.

CINCINNATI PICK AT JACKSONVILLE (46.5) –  Neither of these teams looks very good to be honest with you. Jacksonville, with a new owner and a second year QB is improving and this game will say a lot about how far they’ve come this season.  Losing IN Indy last season wasn’t a good sign at all, since the Colts aren’t considered a very good team, however, they will have a shot at the Benglas at home.  The Bengals, in my opinion, have one of the worst defenses in the league.  They also have the WORST run defense in the league.  Look for a bunch of MJD against this defense and that should open up the short and intermediate passing lanes for Blaine Gabbert who has yet to throw an interception this season. I LOVE THE JAGS TO COME BACK HERE AND BEAT THE BENGALS AT HOME AND COVER THE POINTSPREAD.

DENVER -7 OVER OAKLAND (48.5) – It’s hard not to like the Broncos here at home, coming off two possible Super Bowl teams in Atlanta and Houston but the have won 4 games in a row in Denver so you can’t just rule them out.  Peyton Manning has an incredibly tough schedule to start the season having already played Pittsburgh, Atlanta, and Houston, then after this week’s game against Oakland, the travel to New England and San Diego. The Raiders have some momentum coming off an emotional win at home against the Steelers last week and I look for them to come in smoking this week.  However, they’ve got some problems. Starting WR Darius Heyward-Bey is out indefinitely after injuring his neck last week.  RB Darren McFadden will shoulder most of the load both receiving and running the ball out of the backfield.  The Broncos after losing their last two games to Atlanta and Houston are having a hard time moving the football early in games.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME. TOO TOUGH TO CALL.

GREEN BAY -7.5 OVER NEW ORLEANS (53) – Who would have ever though after 3 games that these two teams would have a combined record of 1-5? Not me! This past week the Packers were pretty much shut down by the Seattle Seahawks and lost an infamous game on Monday Night Football that helped put a stop to the “replacement refs”.  Aaron Rodgers has had some problems finding his favorite receivers the first three weeks and he’s been sacked 16 times in 5 games, 8 coming in the first half this past week against the Seahawks.  You can’t fix that completely in one week, but they’ll try.  The New Orleans Saints should provide what it is the Packers need. No defense.  The SAINTS have played 3 lousy teams and are still 0-3.  This is what happens when you don’t have a head coach.  The Saints give up 5 yards a carry on the ground and a 101 QB rating.  Look for the Packers to shut down the Saints early and score at will in this game in Lambeau. Check the weather but I LOVE the PACKERS here.  NFL GAME OF THE YEAR so far.

TAMPA BAY -2 OVER WASHINGTON (46.5) – Neither of these teams will make the playoffs but both are supposed to be moving in the same direction even though you’ll never convince me the Redskins are going to get any better with ownership and management where it is.  The Buc have a tough disciplinarian in charge which is what they want.  Former Buc HC Raheem Morris comes to visit as Redskins DB coach.  The Redskins’ DB’s are the worst in the league probably.  Add to that they are injured and you have the mess called the Redskins defense. Add to that two of their best defensive players, Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker are out for the season and it’s even worse.  Tampa struggles to move the football.  They can’t pass because they won’t commit to the pass and they don’t have many weapons to begin with.  Look for the Bucs to pound Martin between the tackles and test the Redskins run defense to open up Josh Freeman’s passing lanes.  NEITHER OF THESE TEAMS ARE GOING ANYWHERE AND I DON’T TRUST EITHER TEAM ENOUGH TO PLAY THEM AGAINST EACH OTHER PASS.

PHILLY -2 OVER GIANTS (47.5) – It’s hard not to like the Giants a bunch here and I’m sure I’ll go with them as the visiting dog which is where they’re ALWAYS the best play, but it’s a game that the Giants limp into a bit and Philly needs a win even worse than the Giants do.  Ahmad Bradshaw is probable to play even though the Giants have a great backup in Andre Brown who is averaging 5.6 yards a carry and has scored 3 TD’s in Bradhsaw’s absence.  Eli Manning is Eli Manning and that means he isn’t going to lose this game for the Giants. He’ll have a positive effect on the Eagles defense.  Mike Vick has aturned the ball over 12 times in his first 3 games.  I’m not sure if facing the Giants defensive rush is going to make him feel any better.  The Eagles have one of the best pass defenses in the league but last week they were brought back to reality by non other than former Eagles QB Kevin Kolb in Arizona.  I’M GOING TO TAKE MY ROAD WARRIORS HERE TO COVER AND WIN FOR 4 STARS. GO G-MEN!!!..

DALLAS -3.5 OVER CHICAGO (41.5) – The UNDER is being pounded for some reason here.  The game will be indoors so weather won’t be a factor.  MAKE SURE YOU CALL ME AT 1-800-HOO-ISIT AND I’LL GIVE YOU MY MONDAY NIGHT MONDAY FROM 5PM – GAME TIME…FOR FREE!!!!

NFL Power Rankings – After Week 2

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  1. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS – So far, so good. The best defense in the league can run the ball too.
  2. HOUSTON TEXANS – Easy win on the road. Should make it 3-0 on Sunday. Great defense.
  3. BALTIMORE RAVENS – Blew a chance to go 2-0 last week. Bad  play calling late. Will beat NE.
  4. ATLANTA FALCONS –Falcons played well at home to beat Peyton. Now on road vs. SD. Big game
  5. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS – Norv Turner starts 2-0 for the first time EVER as HC. Big game Sunday.
  6. GREEN BAY PACKERS –Pack get well at home vs. Cutler, Bears. Seattle will be ready to play.
  7. DETROIT LIONS – Should handle Titans on the road. Looked pretty good against 49ers there.
  8. NEW YORK GIANTS – G-men proved to be road warriors again. Won on short week at Carolina.
  9. PITTSBURGH STEELERS – Ryan Clark played last week. Offense and defense tough.
  10. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES – 7 turnovers and 2-0? I’m not convinced they’re that good, but hey!
  11. ARIZONA CARDINALS – Better than everyone thinks including me. Kolb gets a chance. D tough.
  12. NEW ENGLAND PATS – Not even cheating is gonna help this Pats team. Add two receivers for O.
  13. DENVER BRONCOS – Broncos have trouble indoors in Atlanta. 3 picks in 1st quarter for Peyton.
  14. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS – Crush Cowboys at home. Gonna get better. Defense for real. Carroll!
  15. DALLAS COWBOYS – Boys get crushed in SEATTLE? Offense shut down. Problems in big D.
  16. CHICAGO BEARS – Bears better beat Rams this week or there will be trouble in Windy City!
  17. ST. LOUIS RAMS – Bradford, Fisher, offense looking much better. Gonna be a contender soon
  18. CINCINNATI BENGALS – Big win at home to go 1-1 LW. Law Firm,  Dalton, Green, defense??
  19. TAMPA BAY BUCS – Had Giants down 14, blew lead. Coach has them playing. Can win in Dallas
  20. WASHINGTON REDSKINS – Should have won last week in St. Louis. Lose 2 defensive starters.
  21. NEW YORK JETS – Homecoming for Sparano. Dolphins might have something for them. Toss up.
  22. MIAMI DOLPHINS – Big win this past week vs. Raiders. Defense, rookie QB, and Bush look good.
  23. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS – Brees, Saints, can’t stop bleeding. Offense decent, Defense invisible.
  24. BUFFALO BILLS – Bills have weapons but no defense. If they lose to Cleveland, season over.
  25. INDANAPOLIS COLTS – Luck gets first win at home. Looks for 2 in a row this week. Should win.
  26. OAKLAND RAIDERS – Better than they showed Monday night. Will continue to improve this year.
  27. MINNESOTA VIKINGS – Play two lousy teams close. 1-1 but we’ll see how good they are vs. 49ers
  28. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS – Played hard and lost in OT. Gabbert the key. MJD looked fine. D?
  29. TENNESSEE TITANS – Horrible schedule, horrible team. CJ averaging  1.1 YPC. Doesn’t look good
  30. CAROLINA PANTHERS – Giants crushed Cam, team at their place. Trouble in paradise. Need help
  31. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS – Team going nowhere. Everyone ready to jump off. Have some weapons.
  32. CLEVELAND BROWNS – Weeden played much better. Richards for real. Played Cincy tough….

Bruce Hall’s Second Opinion – September 23rd, 2012

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NFL WEEK 3 MATCHUPS

 

ST. LOUIS +7 AT CHICAGO (43) – The Rams showed me something last week against the Redskins. Not only can they move the football a little bit this season, but their defense looks much more aggressive and into the game than in years past.  They picked up some vets that are helping.  The Rams go to Chicago, a team that is having some problems. All anyone could talk about in the past week in Chicago is what an asshole Jay Cutler is.  He wasn’t getting a lot of protection in their loss last week and he acted like the baby he is.  If I was an NFL QB I think I’d be nice to my O-Linemen!  They can just smile and let the cattle out of the corral anytime they want. Anyway, two teams going in opposite directions IMO.  Their best offensive weapon in Matt Forte is out for a while. Their offensive line is having problems. Cutler has happy feet. He holds the ball too long anyway. He tries throw the ball through the defense.  St. Louis is improving all the time. Jeff Fisher is a proven head coach with a lot of energy which kids love.  They won at home last week in a “chippie” (looked like a regular rough game to me) game with the Redskins and held on to win at the end.  Danny Amendola, granted it was against a lousy Redskins secondary, set an NFL record in the first half of the game.  They do have Steven Jackson who is a punishing running back.   I’M TAKING THE POINTS HERE AND THE RAMS for 3 STARS.  CHECK RIGHT BEFORE GAMETIME FOR MY FINAL PLAYS!! A lot depends on the injury report.

BUFFALO  -3 AT CLEVELAND (44) – If you ever want to know which game that CBS thinks is the WORST game to watch out of all of the NFL games on any given Sunday, just check and see where Spero Dedes and Steve Beurlein are working .  This week it’s the Bills traveling to Cleveland because the league has promised both teams that ONE of them will probably be guaranteed a win.  The good news is that two of the league’s best rookie RB’s are playing against each other in this game.  Trent Richardson was the third player drafted this past year.  He’ll start for the Browns.  C.J. Spiller, a second year guy from Clemson, will start for the Bills because Fred Jackson will be out for a while with an injury.  Neither of these teams is going anywhere anytime soon, but watching these two young men play will at least keep some of the people in their seats in Cleveland.  Spiller, although it’s just after two games, is averaging over 10 yards per carry. He’s the first running back since Jim Brown in 1963 to have averaged over 10 yards per carry for the first two games of the season.   Last week Richardson became the first rookie to run and catch a pass for a TD since 2005 in the same game.  Even though the Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick hasn’t set the world on fire with his passing, the Bills OL hasn’t allowed a sack yet this season.  The Bills beat K.C. last week but the Chiefs pretty much suck.  The Browns have played two pretty good teams in Philly and Cincinnati.  Rookie QB Brandon Weeden had a very good outing last week in a losing cause.  If the Browns weren’t so beat up on the defensive side of the ball, I’d take them as a home dog here to win the game.  However, I’m afraid that Fitzpatrick and his offense have a little too much juice for the Browns here.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.

INDY -3 OVER JACKSONVILLE (43) – Jacksonville traveled opening day to Minnesota and lost in overtime. Their offense didn’t look bad. Last week at home, Houston, the team I picked to win the AFC this season, embarrassed their offense and Blaine Gabbert who threw for only 53 yards.  MJD has run the ball effectively in two games but everything I see about the Jax offense screams they have to execute and are having big time problems doing so.  The Colts, on the other hand, are building gradually and effectively on both offense and defense.   Their offensive line is a work in progress but he’s athletic and smart enough to do what he has to do to run the offense.  Luck has targeted Reggie Wayne  with 1/3 of his passes even though he’s usually double-teamed.  Former Ram Donnie Avery has proven to be a good target for Luck also.  His college roommate, Coby Fleener has done a good job so far and will continue to improve.  Donald Brown gives them a decent running back to offset the passing attack of Luck.  This game is pretty much a toss-up but I’m going to probably play Indy if the injury list stays the same on Sunday as it is now.  Jaguar QB Blaine Gabbert isn’t very mobile and should get some pressure from the front 7 in Indy.  The crowd noise should give Gabbert problems also.  We’ll see what happens on Sunday.

JETS -2 AT MIAMI (41) – Jets OC Tony Sparano is going back to Miami where he coached for the past three years to take on first year HC Joe Philbin, his rookie QB Ryan Tannehill, and a defense that can be pretty tough.  The Dolphins can run the football.  Reggie Bush is having some success finding holes.  Last week they rushed for 259 yards against the Raiders.  With Brian Hartline being their most effective WR, the Dolphins are going to HAVE to have an effective running game.  Rex Ryan is going to put 8 and 9 in the box and challenge the Dolphins to throw the ball.  The Dolphin defense actually played Houston tough and last week only allowed the Raiders 23 yards on the ground.  I would think that the Jets may have a hard time running the ball too.  If Miami plays smart on offense and doesn’t turn the ball over, they might beat the Jets, who are 2 point favorites only because of the betting public.  The Jets are giving up 4.6 yards per carry so far this season.  I’m GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME ONLY BECAUSE IT’S TOO CLOSE TO CALL BUT I WOULDN’T BE A BIT SURPRISED IF THE DOLPHINS WIN HERE.

NEW ORLEANS -9 OVER KANSAS CITY (53) – It’s hard to believe that the Saints could end up 0-3 after this game after winning a Super Bowl a couple of years ago.  Drew Brees is playing without his head coach/mentor/partner Sean Payton and it’s giving him and the offense and the team some problems.   they can’t figure out how to stop the other teams they play from scoring, it’s not going to matter how effective Brees and the offense is.  However, so far this season, Brees  is struggling throwing the football.  RB Darren Sproles is his leading receiver s far this season.  TE Jimmy Graham is a big target that can create problems for defenses but so far this season, the offense hasn’t been able to score when they need to and their defense has struggled against the likes of Washington and Carolina.  Neither of those two teams are going anywhere this season.  The Chiefs so far have lost by 16 and 18 to Atlanta and Buffalo.  Last week for some reason,  RB Jamaal Charles only had 9 touches.  QB Matt Cassell has turned the ball over 5 times already the first two games.  He’s been sacked 8 times.  The Saints aren’t going to be able to get too much pressure without getting some linebackers involved.  The Chiefs do have some weapons.  TE Tony Moeaki, WR Dwayne Bowe will create some problems for the Saints secondary if Cassell has time to throw.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER IN THIS GAME FOR 5 STARS.  I CAN’T SEE THE WINNER GETTING LESS THAN 35 POINTS HERE.

DETROIT -3 ½ AT TENNESSEE (47.5) – Detroit traveled to San Francisco last week and played the best team in the NFL pretty well.  Their defense kept the 49ers offense out of the end zone for the most part.  Their defense, even with some holes in the secondary, played well and was very physical.  Tennessee to this point of the season has showed literally NOTHING.  They can’t run the ball and they can’t throw the ball on offense.  Opponents are averaging 37+ minutes holding on to the football, making it virtually impossible for the Titan defense to have any success.  Sure, they’ve played New England and San Diego, but even though both Brady and Rivers are future HOF QB’s, their teams are not all that tough.  Chris Johnson, who rushed for 2,000+ yards two years ago and signed a big deal before the start of last season, has 21 yards rushing on 19 carries.  His offensive line is pitiful if that’s the case.  Their defense has given up 310 yards rushing the first two games.  Detroit QB Matthew Stafford should have no problem tearing up the defense of the Titans here.  The Titans are giving up an average of 118.5 QB rating so far this season.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE LIONS HERE MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS.

REDSKINS -3 OVER CINCINNATI (50) – I think both teams are gonna be able to score on Sunday and score in bunches.  The Redskins defense, after losing 2 big members of their front 7 Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker.  The Redskins won’t be able to replace those two guys.  The Redskins secondary is like swiss cheese already.  Nobody can cover and nobody can tackle.  Andy Dalton struggled against the Ravens but had his way against the Cleveland defense last week.  RB Benjarvis Green-Ellis has played well for the Bengals running the football.   A.J. Green is a dominant receiver but hasn’t really broke loose so far this season because he’s been double teamed each week.  TE Jermaine Gresham is a decent receiver and former CFL WR Andrew Hawkins has caught 10 passes for 142 yards and a touchdown in two games.  On the Washington side of the football, Rookie QB Robert Griffin has a 111.6 QB rating in two games.  He has thrown 3 TD’s and only 1 pick so far.  His yards/attempt is 9.56 yards.  The Bengals defense has given up a ridiculously high 119.9 QB rating to this point of the season.  The Bengals DO NOT HAVE AN INTERCEPTION so far this year.  If the Redskins can run Albert Morris effectively, which they should be able to do because the Bengals give up 5.5 yards per carry, it should open up the passing lanes for Robert Griffin and the Redskins recievers.  I’ M GOING TO TAKE THE REDSKINS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS AND THE OVER 50 AFORE 4 STARS.

SAN FRANCISCO -7 AT MINNESOTA (43) – The 49ers have beaten two good teams so far this season, the Packers and the Lions, both from the NFC North which is where this week’s opponent plays also.  They play indoors at the Metrodome at 1 pm, which is like playing at 10 a.m. on the West Coast.  San Francisco, in my opinion, is the best team in the NFC, maybe the entire league right now. Alex Smith has thrown 216 passes without an interception.  Minnesota was outplayed at home their first game but won in overtime over a weak Jacksonville team.  Last week they lost in Indy to Andrew Luck and the Colts who won their first game of the season and in quite a long time.  Adrian Peterson has come back early from knee surgery and played the first two games of the season, rushing for a 4.4 yard average and 133 yards.  I can’t believe that Peterson is 100% but don’t look for him to sit out against the 49ers.  He’s a gamer.  However, I’ll say this.  If he does get 15-25 touches, he’s gonna get beat up and beat up badly.  Vikings QB Christian Ponder has done fine so far this season, completing 75% of his passes for 515 yards and no picks.  If Ponder can keep Alex Smith and the 49ers offense off the field, then the Vikings have a chance.  The Vikings who have one of the league’s best pass rushers in Jared Allen, have 4 sacks for the season.  Allen doesn’t have a sack yet.  Minny LB Erin Henderson is OUT for the game on Sunday, which will hurt the Vikings chances.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME BECAUSE THE NUMBER IS JUST TOO GOOD.

DALLAS -8 OVER TAMPA BAY (46) – This is an interesting matchup because it’s Dallas’ home opener after getting pushed around in Seattle last week against the Seahawks.  Dallas’ problem has always been consistency.  The Cowboys looked like world beaters against the World Champion Giants opening day in New York.  Then they travel out west and get embarrassed.  Tampa Bay’s new HC Greg Schiano has his guys believing in themselves.  They fired out during a Giants victory formation at the end of the game last week and gave no apologies.  They were playing hard. They had Eli Manning and his Giants frustrated and behind by 14 points late in the game before the Giants got it together and beat them last week.  The Bucs defense can play.  They held Cam Newton and his offense to 10 points the first week.  Their defense is only giving up an average of 2.7 yards per carry to opposing RB’s.  They have run the ball 58 times and only the ball 52 times.  They believe in a ball control offense.  On the defensive side of the ball, the Bucs have picked off 5 opponents passes already.  Dallas needs this game some kind of badly, but that doesn’t mean that it’s gonna happen. Romo and the Cowboys HAVE to be able to run the football.  I’m not sure if they can!  I’M GONNA PASS ON THIS GAME BUT IF I DID PLAY THE GAME, I’D TAKE THE BUCS TO UPSET THE COWBOYS AND DEFINITELY COVER THE SPREAD.

PHILADELPHIA -3 AT ARIZONA (46) – Arizona is better than a lot of people thought they would be, including me.  John Skelton was injured and Kevin Kolb has replaced him at QB and is doing a good job.  He is also facing his former team, who know a little bit about him, but he also knows a little bit about them.  The Cards are 9-2 in their past 11 games.  They might be the best kept secret in the NFL.  The Cards haven’t started a season 3-0 since 1974.  Beating New England last week at their place is no little accomplishment.  They’re going to have to control the ball and get something out of a running game that hasn’t logged much yardage yet.  Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams haven’t shown up yet but it’s not all their problem.  The Cards are starting rookie Bobby Massie at right tackle.  Their best OT is out for the season.  With an inexperienced LT D’Anthony Batiste on the other side, look for the Eagles to bring pressure from the corners to hurry Kolb.  For the Eagles WR Jeremy Macklin is OUT. DeSean Jackson has a sore hamstring and is one play away from being out.  I look for the Eagles to control the ball on the ground and stretch the field from time to time and keep the Cards off the field.  This is a game that really doesn’t match up well for Arizona.  The Cards defense is Darnell Docket on the line and Patrick Petersen in the D backfield.  The Cards can bring some pressure against an inexperienced and banged up Philly line. Philly has 9 turnovers in their first two games.   I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME EVEN THOUGH I THINK THE CARDS HAVE A SHOT. THERE IS A REASON THEY ARE 3 POINT UNDERDOGS AT HOME.

PITTSBURGH -3 ½ AT OAKLAND (45) – I can’t read too much into Oakland so far.  They have been disappointing and there are parts of their game they are definitely struggling with.  After losing their opener, the Steelers came back last week and looked solid against the Jets.  Troy Palaomulo and James Harrison are out this week.  The Steelers should have plenty of fans in the Black Hole this week and I look for the Steelers to win the game outright.  K Sebastian Janikowski has a sore groin so that could be a problem.  RB Darren McFadden has only 21 touches in two games running the football even though he’s caught 15 passes.  Pittsburgh needs this win to keep up with Baltimore who should handle the Pats on Sunday night.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME.

HOUSTON -1.5 AT DENVER (45.5) – Peyton Manning is coming off a shorter week of practice but he’s at home.  Houston travels again this time to the Mile High City.  Peyton Manning is going to run an up tempo no huddle attack to take advantage of the altitude changes for the Texans.  In Atlanta, Peyton had 3 picks in the first quarter of the game, but came back late to make a game of it.  Manning is about 70% of where he’s been before and where he might go.  I would imagine he’ll do better at home.  Willis McGahee has been solid but at his age, he might get tired early in the season. The Texans HAVE NEVER BEAT MANNING ON THE ROAD.  They have the number 1 defense in the league but they haven’t played anyone yet.  Matt Schaub and his offense are solid and can churn up yardage in bunches.  However,  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME EVEN THOUGH I FEEL THAT TEXAS IS THE BETTER TEAM.

BALTIMORE -2 ½ OVER NEW ENGLAND (50) – I don’t see a high scoring game here.  Both defenses might be their strongest teams.  The Pats crush a lousy Titan team the first game, only to come back last week and lose at home against a solid Arizona team.  One of his favorite targets, Aaron Hernandez, is out for a while.  Gronkowski gives him at matchup nobody in the league can handle, sometimes even with double teams.  RB Steven Ridley is averaging 5 yards a carry.  On the Baltimore side of the ball, Joe Flacco seems to be getting better every game.  They ran up a big score against the Bengals, then lost a close game last week in Philly, which they could have won easily.  They have to figure out a way to get Ray Rice the ball more.  Last week that was their problem.  TE Dennis Pitta is having a come out year so far.  Flacco has more receivers for a change than Brady.  This game is HUGE for the Ravens. First of all, it’s at home where they play better than on the road.  They MUST win this game or they’ll fall to 1-2.  I CAN’T SEE THEM DOING THAT. I LOOK FOR THE BALTIMORE DEFENSE TO GIVE BRADY FITS AND THE OFFENSE TO GET ENOUG POINTS TO WIN AND COVER THE SPREAD HERE.  TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

SAN DIEGO -3 OVER ATLANTA (49.5) – Don’t ask me why? But I’m leaning towards Norv Turner and the Chargers going to 3-0 this season with a home win here against the Falcons but I’m stepping out on a big ledge here doing that.  First of all, the Chargers haven’t beaten anyone yet.  Tennessee and Oakland both qualify right now as SUCK teams, which if you’re familiar with my logic, makes it virtually stupid to count anything done against these teams.  However, the Chargers are at home a second week in a row and Antonio Gates comes back from sore ribs to start today.  The Chargers would like nothing better than to get their third win in a row before they set off on a two game road trip.  The Chargers also get RB Ryan Matthews back from a broken collarbone this week.  THE FALCONS HAVE NEVER LOST IN SAN DIEGO, which makes it even tougher to take the Chargers here.  On the other side of that play, Phillip Rivers is 38-11 at home as a starter. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE I’VE TALKED MYSELF OUT OF IT WRITING THIS NOTE COLUMN. HAHAHA.

(MONDAY NIGHT) PACKERS -3 AT SEATTLE (45) – This game is going to be a GREAT football game on Monday night.  First of all, the Packers aren’t the Packers as we’ve known them so far this season.  After losing at home to an excellent 49ers team, they came back and beat up an old nemesis Jay Cutler and the Bears.  Now the Pack travel to Seattle to take on Pete Carroll and his rejuvenated Seahawk squad.  Last week the Seahawks destroyed the Dallas Cowboys, who usually have as many fans in away stadiums as they do at home.  Rookie QB Russell Wilson is solid, but he’s struggling to stretch the field with his receiving corps.  Last week against the Cowboys, Wilson finished with a 112 passer rating.  Look for this kid to just get better each week.  RB Marshawn Lynch and the offensive line have done a good job so far rushing for just under 150 yards per game.  The Packers rely on Aaron Rodgers and his passing game with a host of receivers that are all good, but none great.  I’M GOING TO JUST WATCH THIS GAME BUT IF I HAD TO TAKE ONE TEAM OR THE OTHER, I’D PROBABLY TAKE THE SEAHAWKS AT HOME JUST KNOWING HOW TOUGH THEY ARE THERE.