NFL MATCHUPS WEEK 11

DENVER (4-5) +6 OVER JETS (5-4) (41)

The Jets are coming off a horrible showing against the Pats on an extremely short week traveling to Denver in what turns out to be a MUST game for both teams. Since Tim Tebow has taken over the Broncos, they’ve gone 3-1. They are ONE game back in the standings in the West where an 8-8 record might get you to the playoffs. The Jets cost me and my service BIG this past week and I’m not really sure how good they are. LaDanian Tomlinson is OUT for the game this week and Mark Sanchez isn’t showing too much although he’s improved steadily since starting his rookie year and we still can’t forget that they Jets have been to TWO straight AFC championship games. The Broncos are getting more familiar with having Tebow in the lineup and when they run (they ran 55 times last game) they keep their defense off the field. Willis McGahee will be a game time decision at RB but Lance Ball proved to be just what the doctor ordered coming in and playing with Omar Moreno out also. Should something happen to Ball, it could be slim pickings for the Broncos to find a running back to take pressure off Tebow. I should leave this game alone but I’m not going to. EVERYONE in the country (90%) are betting on the Jets. I don’t see it. I don’t think they are that good. I also think that Tebow is much better than they think he is. Will their defense and their blitz schemes be successful. Probably some. But not all of the time. Tebow can make you pay when you mess up. He can run and can be a punishing type of runner at times. The pass rush for the Broncos is pretty good. The short week means more than you think, especially when you have to travel and that kills another half of a day. TAKE THE BRONCOS AND TEBOW TO COVER THE SPREAD AND IF THEY WIN THE GAME, THE NFL WILL FIND ANOTHER EXCUSE WHY THEY WON. IT COULDN’T BE BECAUSE TEBOW IS ANY GOOD. THE LEAGUE WILL MAKE SURE YOU KNOW THAT. ASSHOLES.

ATLANTA (5-4) -6 OVER TENNESSEE (5-4)(44)

Lost a close one last week between Atlanta and New Orleans in overtime. I loved Atlanta there, but Julio Jones went down in that game and the Falcon defense didn’t make enough plays to keep Drew Brees and the Saints form beating them again. Chris Johnson of the Titans has finally got his running game going after an extremely slow start. This game should be a close one and I’m going to pass on it just because neither team has shown me enough this season to trust them in a big game. PASS.

MIAMI (2-7) -2 OVER BUFFALO (5-4)(44)

The Bills are definitely the better team still here, but the Dolphins have won two in a row and the Bills are going the wrong direction. The Bills offensive line is beat up and they are making constant changes to the starters there. Ryan Fitzpatrick, fresh off signing a big new contract, is beat up also and hasn’t been as effective as of late. Fred Jackson is still running off great yardage and most of the offensive playmakers are healthy. Miami is getting some good production out of Reggie Bush and Matt Moore is finding All Pro WR Brandon Marshall regularly. Marshall had 19 catches against Buffalo in his two games against them last season. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE THE BUFFALO OFFENSE JUST DOESN’T LOOK LIKE THEY HAVE EARLIER THIS SEASON.

BALTIMORE (6-3) -7 OVER CINCINNATI (6-3) (40½)

Normally I’d say that the Ravens at home minus the 7 is a pretty good bet but Ray Lewis may not dress for the first time in a very long time. My gut tells me that this up and down team won’t be the same without him on the field and it may bother them. The Cincinnati defense is solid but they will have to deal with the loss of their best defensive back Leon Hall for the season and A.J. Green for another week probably. It doesn’t mean they can’t play well, but these two players are great players. With Ray Lewis out for the game, he’ll be on the sidelines at home coaching his boys up. Right now, the majority of the money is on Cincinnati because of Lewis’ absence. Personally, I like the Ravens in this spot. The Ravens are coming off a bad road loss against the surprising Seattle Seahawks. I don’t think the Ravens, with or without Ray Lewis, will have any trouble getting up for this game. TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS FOR A SMALL 3 STAR PLAY.

CLEVELAND (3-6) -1 OVER JACKSONVILLE (3-6)(34)

This game will not be very exciting to watch unless your children are playing in it. Probably a shitty announcing team (Steve Tasker and Bill Macatee), check, but still an NFL Sunday game for us to break down. Cleveland is literally much worse than their 3-6 record. In his first year at the helm, Montario Hardesty is probably going to play this week at RB, but he won’t be 100%. Peyton Hillis is out. I don’t see the lackluster, punchless offense of the Browns doing anything against the tough defense of Jacksonville. This game could be first one to 10 points wins. Even though rookie QB Blaine Gabbert is only completing 47.9% of his passes, the Jags have won 2 of their last 3 games. Maurice Jones-Drew is a legitimate Pro Bowler and gives defenses fits. Except for an early season 32-3 loss to the Jets, the Jags have played pretty well on the road, barely losing to the Steelers and Houston, then beating the Colts by two touchdowns last week in Indy. Colt McCoy is a better QB than Gabbert, but I’m not sure the Browns will be able to stop Jones-Drew. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME. IT’S JUST TWO TERRIBLE OFFENSE AND I CAN’T STAND TO WATCH. PASS.
DETROIT (6-3) -7 OVER CAROLINA (2-7)(47½) – Funny that this game is a 7 point spread with the Detroit Lions at home in their dome against a Carolina team that all of a sudden is struggling after losing at home to Tennessee 30-3 last week. I feel that the Panthers are starting to lose their desire and focus as the season wears on. Detroit, has lost 3 out of their last 4 games against three pretty good teams, San Francisco, Atlanta, and Chicago. The Panthers, however, don’t have nearly as much going on as those three teams. I almost feel the Lions will have a 7 point advantage just playing at home at Ford Field. This game is absolutely a must win for the Lions if they are going to have any chance at all of making the playoffs this season. Both teams should be able to run the football. With the Packers game on Thanksgiving day waiting for the Lions after this game, they better take care of business in Detroit. Normally, I’d take the Lions here, but Matthew Stafford has a bad finger and last week some of his passes looked horrible. I’ve got to pass on this one. Detroit should win this one fairly easily, but there are better games to play. PASS.
GREEN BAY (9-0) – 14 OVER TAMPA BAY (4-5) (49½) – Green Bay has an offense nobody can stop right now. Their defense is solid but the complaint I hear about the Packers is that their defense might not be good enough to repeat as Super Bowl Champs. BS!! They are first in the league in points scored with 320 in 9 games. That’s almost 35 points per game. When you are scoring that much, you also give the ball back to the team you’re playing by kicking the ball off more than most teams. Aaron Rodgers is a MONSTER QB. There isn’t anything he can’t do on a football field. James Starks and Ryan Grant give him enough running game to keep opposing defenses honest when they think about rushing the passer. When they do blitz, Rodgers makes them pay. I have the Bucs ranked an OK—team. I have the Packers ranked as a VERY GOOD team. Last week the Bucs lost 37-9 at HOME to the Texans. Green Bay will have just as much success offensively as the Texans did. The Bucs are having some problems with their defensive line so they signed Albert Haynesworth this week. I find that amazing. The guy is a cancer in the clubhouse. The Bucs have just 13 sacks in 9 games. That’s not good enough. When the Packers spread the field to throw, no pressure means big yardage. Packers CRUSH. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE 14 POINTS FOR 4 STARS. TAKE THE OVER FOR 3 STARS.

MIAMI (2-7) -2 OVER BUFFALO (5-4)(43)

This is a pretty strange line here. Buffalo, for the majority of this season, has played like one of the best teams in the league. After playing the Redskins and “catching” whatever the hell they had, they have lost two games in a row by a combined score of 71-18. Injuries have made them revamp their offensive line and I made the observation after the Redskins game that QB Ryan Fitzpatrick looked like he was hurt to me. The Bills should be able to move the football against the Dolphins, but after starting 0-7, the Dolphins have straightened things out and have won the last two. Granted, the two teams they beat by a combined score of 51-12 are the Chiefs and the Redskins, but two win it was. This is a BIG game for the Bills because if they lose this game, with their schedule coming up, they probably won’t make the playoffs. The Bills lost Eric Wood last week for the season to a knee injury and they already had a third string tackle playing left tackle. Reggie Bush will provide some offense running and catching the ball out of the backfield and Matt Moore should be able to find Brandon Marshall for some key first downs. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.

MINNESOTA (2-7) -1 OVER OAKLAND (5-4) (45 ½)

Carson Palmer is getting better each week. Oakland is holding on to first place in the AFC West by a thread. This is a game the Raiders need to win. An 8-8 record may win in the West this season so each potential win is important. I like what Christian Ponder is doing with the Vikings at QB his rookie season and I like the pressure that Jarred Allen is bringing with his pass rush and 13.5 sacks. The question here is who can stop the running game first. Oakland should be able to run the football and that should offset the pressure brought by the Minnesota front line. Oakland brings good pressure also but they’ll have their hands full with Adrian Peterson from the start of the game. He IS the toughest guy to tackle in the league. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME EVEN THOUGH OAKLAND IS THE BETTER TEAM HERE.

DALLAS (5-4) -7 AT WASHINGTON (3-6) (41.5)

This rivalry is not what it used to be. Bad feelings by old time season ticket holders in Washington towards the ownership are starting to take command here in Washington. Mike and Kyle Shanahan look like a youth league coach and his kid trying to help. It’s probably not going to work. For 12 years the Redskins have floundered in mediocrity or worse. Now the Skins are a 7 point underdog to a team that earlier this season they should have beaten. Rex Grossman gets the start again this week after leading the Skins in a 20-9 loss in Miami last week. The Skins have NO offense. Their line has been decimated by injuries. The Cowboys won’t have to worry about the Skins throwing the ball against them. If they can stop the Skins running game with Roy Helu or Ryan Torain, they should be able to shut down the offense of the Redskins completely. Last week the Cowboys crushed a Buffalo team 44-7 that shutout the Redskins two weeks ago 23-0. This could get ugly early. In their last 7 games, the Skins have averaged just over 12 points per game. That isn’t going to get it done against a Cowboy team with QB Tony Romo and playmakers like DeMarco Murray, Mark Witten, and Dez Bryant. The Cowboys could score early and often. Look for the Redskins defense to keep them in the game for a while, only to grow tired of being on the field all the time and eventually getting beat by at least two touchdowns. There will be as many Cowboys fans at this game than Redskins fans…unfortunately. They come out of the woodwork when they’re winning. When they’re losing you can’t FIND a Cowboy fan. TAKE DALLAS HERE MINUS THE POINTS FOR WHATEVER YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. I’M PLAYING THEM FOR 5 STARS.

ST. LOUIS (2-7) -3 OVER SEATTLE (3-6) (39)

Here’s another horrible game with two teams going nowhere, but the Seahawks DID BEAT the Baltimore Ravens at home last week. They have also traveled cross country to play the Giants and beat them a few weeks ago. They don’t have much offense but they do have a good defense. Neither team can seem to protect their QB very well. The Rams have won two out of their last three games and have looked much better since RB Steven Jackson has gotten healthy. He is a BEAST and can definitely control the clock and score. However, even though they’re at home in their dome, I’M GONG TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE IT’S JUST TOO CLOSE TO CALL. The betting public agrees with me.

SAN FRANCISCO (8-1) -10 OVER ARIZONA (3-6) (40.5)

Jim Harbaugh and the 49ers have proven already this season to the league that they are for real. Had they not lost the second week to Dallas in overtime, they would be undefeated right now. They have beaten the likes of Cincinnati, Philly, Detroit, and the Giants. They return to the Bay this week to take on an Arizona team that after winning opening day, then losing 6 in a row, have won their last two with last week’s win being IN PHILLY as a huge underdog. They have another chance this week with their backup QB John Skelton probably starting to overcome a double digit underdog line. I can’t imagine San Francisco no coming out and running the ball hard and playing the kind of defense that’s gotten them to where they are right now in this game. 49er RB Frank Gore has a slightly injured knee and ankle but will get some playing time. Kendall Hunter can fill in fine. Arizona has to find some way to get the ball to their playmaker WR Larry Fitzgerald. RB Beanie Wells has looked good so far this season and should get the start. He’s been playing with a sore hamstring for several games. Arizona WR Early Doucet has been a good option for both Kolb and Skelton this season. I’m going to PASS ON THIS GAME EVEN THOUGH I LIKE THE RE 49ERS.

CHICAGO (6-3) -3 ½ OVER SAN DIEGO (4-5) (45)

The Bears have won 5 out of their last 6 games and 4 in a row. They are 5-0 at home this season. The offensive line has worked out most of its problems and looked great last week in their big win against Detroit. Jay Cutler looks confident and secure back in the pocket throwing the ball now. Matt Forte is still getting more touches than anyone in the league and that is working out for the Bears. In 9 games he has rushed for 869 yards and caught 42 passes for another 439. He’s having an MVP season. Now of all things, offensive coordinator Mike Martz is running almost as much as he’s throwing. Who woulda thunk it? The Bears have great special teams and Devin Hester is a monster returning kicks. On the other side of the ball, the Chargers (as anyone who knows me knows) are not very good. They are not very well coached and unless the Bears just come out flat, they should win easily. The Chargers may have as many as three starting offensive linemen out for the game. Phillip Rivers will have a tough time throwing against the Bears swarming defense. Rivers has 19 turnovers. He and the offense are struggling. I don’t see enough weapons for the Chargers to be able to score with the Bears. Last week in a game against the Raiders, the Chargers gave up 254 total yards to backup running back Michael Bush. Forte will have a big day. His running should set up Cutler’s passes to his other WR’s. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS. A LATE DAY HEDGE WITH THE OVER 45 POINTS MY BE A GOOD CALL. I’LL DELIBERATE AND LET YOU KNOW.

GIANTS (6-3) – 5 ½ OVER PHILLY (3-6) (45.5)

These two teams could just as easily be tied for the lead in the NFC East, but Philly has struggled trying to find the chemistry of all the new players on their team and injuries now to QB Michael Vick may send Vince Young to his first start of the season. He has two broken ribs and there’s a good chance he won’t start. The Giants, as all of you know, don’t play nearly as well at home as they do on the road. Last week they almost pulled off a win in San Francisco but lost a close game. After Philly their schedule doesn’t get any easier so they better get a win here this week. LeShaun McCoy is a monster RB for the Eagles. He has rushed for 906 yards and a 5.5 yard average. Vick himself has over 500 yards rushing and he’s a QB! Eli Manning and the Giants have an excellent passing game and Eli may be having the best season of his career. This game could come down to the last possession of the game. That’s how evenly matched these two teams are. Giants RB Ahmad Bradshaw is OUT again this week. That means that Brandon Jacobs gets the call again this week to carry most of the load. This may be the best game of the day to watch. If Vick starts, I like the EAGLES FOR A SMALL PLAY, IF VICK DOESN’T START, I’LL PASS ON THE GAME.

MONDAY NIGHT GAME

NEW ENGLAND (6-3) -15 OVER KANSAS CITY (4-5) (46.5)

It should be a beautiful chilly night in Foxboro Monday night for the Pats to welcome back one of their own, QB Matt Cassel, who took over for an injured Tom Brady a few years ago to lead the Pats into the playoffs. Cassel has played well in K.C. but it hasn’t been the same. The Chiefs are still in the race in the AFC West and will be for a few more games. If they play on doing something this season, they’ll need to win games like this. Because of a multitude of injuries to some of the better Chiefs players including their starting RB, Jackie Battle and Dexter McCluster have filled in and done a good job at the position. After winning 4 games in a row, K.C. has lost two at home to Miami and Denver, two teams who have struggled most of the season. Now they travel to one of the toughest places to play in the league and the Pats need a win also, which won’t make it any easier. Brady struggled at times with interceptions but has a QB rating over 100. Wes Welker has caught 73 passes already and surpassed the 1,000 yard mark already. TE Rob Gronkowski has had a phenomenal year so far also catching 52 passes for 709 yards. He creates matchup NIGHTMARES for the opposing defenses. I LOVE THE PATS HERE AND AM GOING TO GIVE THE BIG NUMBER FOR 3 STARS AND TAKE THE OVER FOR 5 STARS.

Plays for Week 10

NEW ORLEANS (6-3) -1 AT ATLANTA (5-3) (50)

This is another very close game to call here and a very competitive game here in the NFC South division. In my opinion, these are two teams who have both looked very good at times this season and at times looked like they were struggling. New Orleans was on many people’s short list of playoff contenders when the season starts (as was Atlanta) only to look to me like they are struggling to keep the other team’s offense off the field right now. The Atlanta Falcons, after beating a team on national TV, the Philadelphia Eagles, when Mike Vick was knocked out of the game, didn’t look all that good early in the season. After that game, the Falcons have made some changes to their offense and offensive line to get Michael Turner much more involved in the offense. The Saints have had some changes, injuries, and even a retirement affect their offensive line and their running game. The Saints throw the ball over 65% of the time, mostly in the short passing game. RB Mark Ingram has been injured off and on this season and the Saints have had to make changes to their offense and throw a lot of passes to RB Darren Sproles (the league’s leading receiver) and Pierre Thomas, who have both done a great job so far this season. This game is an absolute flip of the coin here. Atlanta is at home and in the past, the Saints have usually been a good road team. However, this year, they Saints are 1-3 on the road, even having lost to a not very good Rams team by 10 two weeks ago. Drew Brees is a GREAT QB. He will keep the Saints close but I feel that the SAINTS DEFENSE is probably their biggest problem right now. The Saints have given up a 5.3 yard average on the ground this year and 14 TD’s and only picked off 4 passes. This is not a typical Gregg Williams defense. Injuries and personnel have changed this defense considerably. I look for the Falcons this weekend at home to run Michael Turner and use the strong receiving corps of Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White and a HEALTHY JULIO JONES to get the lead and stay there against the suddenly struggling Saints. I HAVE THE SAINTS RATED AS AN OK+ TEAM AND THE FALCONS THE SAME. IM PLAYING THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINT HERE. There is a possibility that this game could go over since it’s played indoors, but if the Falcons keep the Saints defense on the field for over 30 minutes with their running game, it could keep the score down. The Falcons defense has played very well as of late. TAKE THE FALCONS FOR 4 STARS.

CAROLINA (2-6) -3½ OVER TENNESSEE (4-4) (46½)

ANOTHER CLOSE GAME here with the Cam Newton led Carolina Panthers coming off a bye week taking on the Titans of Tennessee with Matt Hasselbeck. Besides beating up on a TERRIBLE Colts team two weeks ago, the Titans have not looked good at all. Last week, however, Chris Johnson looked a lot like the C.J. of old. His yards per carry average climbed up to 3.0 which might not sound like much, but believe me, he looked much better. This was against a good Cincinnati defense but they ended up losing the game to a better team. On the Panthers side of the ball, Cam Newton has been nothing but phenonmenal to watch so far this season. With an extra week to prepare for the Titans defense, I look for Newton, Steve Smith, and the Panthers offense to put some points on the board against a not so good Titans defense. The Titans will definitely come out running the football against a Carolina defense that can’t stop the run, ranking 29th in rushing defense. The Panthers should be able to run AND throw against the Titans. I’M TAKING THE PANTHERS HERE IN A VERY CLOSE GAME TO COVER THE POINTSPREAD. There is a good chance I’ll release the OVER 46 points in this game also for 3 or 4 stars. I doubt either team will play too much defense, but I see the Panthers at home being able to outscore the Titans with many more weapons on offense. Matt Hasselbeck doesn’t have the receivers that Cam does and if the Panthers shut down C.J., it could be over early. I HAVE BOTH TEAMS RATED OK-. No surprise there. Like I said, a very close matchup. GO PANTHERS!! TAKE THE PANTHERS MINUST THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS.

CHICAGO (5-3) -3 OVER DETROIT (6-2) (43½)

What a surprise…another close game here in the NFL this week. What a great lineup they’re at putting in front of the NFL fans this week. The BEARS seem to have made a big step up with their offensive line in the past several weeks and worked out their problems protecting QB Jay Cutler. This past week in Philadelphia, the Bears DID NOT ALLOW ONE SACK of Cutler. To me, that is unbelievably impressive. The Eagles have some pass rushers, blitzed on several occasions, and not once was Cutler sacked. Matt Forte fumbled three times in the game (very non-Forte like) and they still won the game AND Forte in the second half had a great game as usual for the Bears. The Lions are coming off a BYE week and should be ready for this game. Matt Stafford is having a great season so far throwing the football and leading this Lion offense. Calving Johnson is having a MONSTER YEAR at WR with 11 TD’s already at the halfway point. Their only two losses so far have come in close games against the almost undefeated 49ers and an improving Atlanta Falcons team three weeks ago. The Lions offensive line has to worry about a healthy Julius Peppers and the defensive line of Chicago getting to Stafford. If Detroit can keep Stafford off his backside, they have a chance to win this game. If not, it could be a long night for Stafford and the Lions. The Bears give up an average of 5.2 yards per carry on the ground as do the Lions. Unfortunately, the Lions don’t have a feature back to take advantage of that. The Bears have Forte. The Bears linebacking corps lead by Brian Urlacher is superb. They play the pass better than most. What a great game to watch but I’m going to PASS on this game because the Bears look better than they have all season long right now AND the LIONS, who I HAVE RATED AS A GOOD TEAM, are coming off a bye week. I HAVE THE BEARS RATED AS AN OK TEAM but they are at home and improving as we speak. I AM RELEASING THE OVER 43½ POINTS FOR 3 STARS HOWEVER. Scratch! No Play! Too much wind!

CINCINNATI (6-2) +4 OVER PITTSBURGH (6-3) (43)

This is going to be a physical, tough game for both teams. After their bye week, the Bengals have come through with TWO ROAD WINS IN A ROW, setting up this matchup against the Steelers at home this weekend. Bengals rookie QB Andy Dalton has been everything that the Bengals had hoped he would and proven himself already to his teammates and fans to be a leader. I HAVE CINCY RATED AS AN OK++ TEAM, ALMOST A GOOD TEAM AND THE STEELERS ARE RATED OK+. The Bengals have won 5 games in a row after losing a close one to an excellent 49ers team. Rookie A.J. Green is having a great year so far for the Bengals and is Dalton’s favorite target. Cedrick Benson is healthy and back after a one game suspension. The Bengals have a very balanced offense this year. Give Marvin Lewis all the credit n the world. I’ve been one of his biggest critics in the past, but he’s doing a superb job this year. The Steelers, who have been playing well, are coming off two emotional, tough, physical games against the Pats and the Ravens. It’s going to be tough for them to get up for this game as high as they were last week again, in my opinion. The Bengals defense is a very good group. They are extremely tough against the run especially. If the Bengals can stay away from turnovers (so far this year the Steelers are NOT forcing any turnovers) they can control the ball and keep the Steelers offense off the field and win this game. Talk about no respect, the Bengals who are at home and have a slightly BETTER team than the Steelers, in my opinion, are 3 POINT UNDERDOGS IN VEGAS JUST BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT THE STEELERS. I’M TAKING THE BENGALS PLUS THE POINTS AS THE HOME DOG TO NOT ONLY COVER BUT WIN THE GAME OUTRIGHT! 3 STAR PLAY ON THE BENGALS. GO BENGALS!!

CLEVELAND (3-5) +3 OVER ST. LOUIS (1-7) (37)

Talk about a piece of crap game here! Both of these teams are horrible, but somehow the Browns have won 3 games this season. They are averaging 3.1 yards per carry. Their two best running backs are OUT. Colt McCoy is like 24 years old and he walks like a 60 year old man because he’s been beat up so badly because his offensive line can’t protect him. They virtually have no weapons on offense. The Rams, on a good note, actually won a game two weeks ago when they beat the New Orleans Saints by 10 points, then came back last week and traveled to Arizona and had chances to win but lost in overtime to the lousy Cardinals on a 99 yard punt return. I’m not going to waste a whole lot of time talking about this game, but even though it’s two lousy teams, it should be a good game. RB Steven Jackson of St. Louis is healthy and looking absolutely like the old Steven Jackson. The problem the Rams have is that they really have nobody to throw the ball to on offense. St. Louis has played a very tough schedule this year losing to the likes of Philly, the Giants, the Ravens, Green Bay, and Dallas. I feel that these are two teams going in opposite directions. I’M TAKING THE RAMS IN A SMALL PLAY TO COVER THE SPREAD HERE AND WIN THEIR SECOND GAME OF THE SEASON. THE BROWNS ARE SIMPLY HORRIBLE.

DALLAS (4-4) -5 ½ OVER BUFFALO (5-3) (40½)

Here’s another VERY CLOSE GAME TO CALL THIS WEEK! I love it when there are games that could go either way. I’ve loved the Bills all season long and after shutting out a piece of crap Washington Redskins team, the Bills FINALLY took a week off, looked pretty bad, and lost. I really think the difference in the team was the health of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was hurt worse than everybody knew against the Redskins. He should be healthy this week and the Bills ARE a better team than the Cowboys. I’ve talked a lot about how the Cowboys playing at home really isn’t much of an advantage because of the nature of the stadium and how it’s built and set up for entertainment. Also, Chan Gailey is going home to Dallas where he was a head coach and an assistant. I HAVE BUFFALO RATED AS AN OK++ TEAM. I HAVE THE COWBOYS RATED AS AN OK+ TEAM. The Bills start a three week road trip here in Dallas. This is a game they really needto win. The Bills have lost three of their four games on the road. Three decent teams that the Bills have beaten are New England, Oakland, and Philly. The Cowboys, on the other hand, haven’t really beaten anyone except the 49ers (their only loss) Other Cowboys wins have been against Washington, St. Louis, and Seattle. Not a very impressive resume. Both teams have almost IDENTICAL offensive numbers. It can be argued that the Cowboys have a better defense but I’m not sold on it. The Bills are starting a third team left tackle for this game and he matches up with DeMarcus Ware. That could be FATAL for Fitzpatrick and the Bills offense. However, they can keep Ware in check with screen passes and draw plays and running right at him. I’VE BEEN BIG ON THE BILLS ALL SEASON LONG BUT THIS GAME IS JUST TOO TOUGH TO CALL AND THE BILLS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING A BIT ON OFFENSE FOR THE FIRST TIME ALL YEAR. PASS.

JACKSONVILLE (2-6) -3 OVER INDIANAPOLIS (0-9) (39)

The Jaguars have played a very tough schedule, but they’re not a very good team. However, in my opinion, they are improving and getting much better work out of their rookie QB Blaine Gabbert, who is just managing games for the most part. They have an all pro RB in Maurice Jones-Drew and nobody really stops him. The Colts couldn’t stop me on defense and I’m 57 years old. The Colts may have the WORST team in the history of the NFL as we know it. I PREDICTED SEVERAL WEEKS AGO THAT THIS GAME WOULD BE THE ONLY GAME THE COLTS WON ALL SEASON LONG. THEY ARE SO BAD I’M CHANGING MY MINE. The point spread speaks loudly of my opinion. HOWEVER, a better Jacksonville team who has played Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Houston all very tough, and actually BEAT THE RAVENS, should win the game outright and cover. Indy couldn’t come within 30 points of the Ravens, let alone beat them. I’M TAKING THE JAGUARS, Jack Del Rio, their rookie QB, and their defense, which is very tough, to not only WIN THE GAME BUT TO COVER THE POINTSPREAD FOR 5 STARS. I HAVE THE JAGS RATED AS AN OK—TEAM AND THE COLTS AS A SS TEAM (SUPER SUCK) Sorry Colts. I’m just saying that because it’s true. Besides, they are winning the SUCK FOR LUCK sweepstakes and a win would throw a monkey in the wrench. I’M TAKING JACKSONVILLE FOR 3 STARS.

KANSAS CITY (4-4) -3 OVER DENVER (3-5) (45½)

Here’s ANOTHER VERY CLOSE GAME TO WATCH THIS WEEKEND!! Hey, just when we thought that the Chiefs had turned everything around with their team and had won 3 games in a row, they play a winless Miami Dolphins team at home and get beat 31-3 last weekend. I’M TOTALLY CONFUSED ABOUT THIS TEAM! Chiefs QB Matt Cassel is still struggling with the offense. He has two decent RB’s to hand the ball off too and throw to out of the backfield. Their defense last week didn’t show up either. Now they play their 3rd game in a row at home this weekend against TIM TEBOW and the Denver Broncos. The Broncos went into Oakland last week and beat a good division opponent. The Broncos rushed (with Tebow’s help) for almost 300 yards. The Broncos are turning everything around and in my opinion and it’s because of Tebow. He just breathes life into a football game. Now they take on what looks to be a not so good Chiefs team and defense and I’m guessing the Broncos will not only play a good game but probably WIN. Do I want to stake my reputation on it? I’ll let you know this Sunday at 11 on BRUCE HALL’S SECOND OPINION. Right now, I’m not sure. I DON’T GUESS….EVER!

MIAMI (1-7) -4 OVER SKINS (3-5) (45½)

The Dolphins won a game finally last week against the Kansas City Chiefs, who looked horrible, but take nothing away from this Miami performance. They played great and have played great at times all season long. They have been so close to winning on three or four occasions so far this season, but they would not be stopped last week. Dolphin QB Matt Moore was 17-23 last week for 300 yards and did more than manage the game. Reggie Bush finally looked like the kind of back the Dolphins thought they signed this year. The get rookie sensation Daniel Thomas back from injury this week and that should give them all the weapons they need to move the football against a Redskins defense that may not be as good as advertised earlier this year. Brandon Marshall is a very good WR. He may be doubled at times and that should open up other receivers in the Dolphin offense. No matter what, THE REDSKINS OFFENSE SUCKS, ABSOLUTELY SUCKS. In their last 5 games the Skins are averaging just over 10 points per game. THAT IS ABSOLUTELY HORRIBLE, and with John Beck at QB for the unforeseen future, I don’t see any way it’s going to improve. The Dolphins secondary is suspect at best and if the Skins can’t move the ball against this Dolphin team, then they probably won’t win another game this season. I HAPPEN TO LIKE THE DOLPHINS IN THIS SITUATION HERE AT HOME AGAINST A STRUGGLING REDSKINS TEAM. This should be a close game for a while, but if the Dolphins can move the football, and they should be able to do just that, I see them pulling away at the end and beating the Skins. The Redskins offense is completely wearing out their decent defensive squad. TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS. WARNING!!! IF REX GROSSMAN STARTS, SCRATCH!

PHILLY (3-5) -14 OVER ARIZONA (2-6) (46 ½)

Everyone’s writing off the Eagles at 3-5. Personally, I called it and said it EVERYWHERE at the start of this season that the NFC East could be possibly won with an 8-8 record. As a matter of fact, I said that ALL 4 TEAMS COULD END UP 8-8. Well, I’m taking that back because the Redskins are so bad they won’t win 6 games, maybe not even 5 games. However, the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles are all about the same in their own ways. All three of these teams can beat the other teams. I like the Giants in the East but Philly has some weapons nobody can compare to. Arizona on the other hand, the opponent here of the Eagles, seems to be going the wrong direction here. Until last week’s overtime victory over the Rams at home, they had lost 6 games in a row. Not much has changed and the Rams, in case you had forgotten, has only won one game all season long. After losing on Monday night and on a short week, I see the Eagles coming out and going after the Cardinals with all they’ve got. Andy will have them ready. John Skelton, who looked better than Kevin Kolb has ever looked this season, will get the start again for the Cardinals. He is not a bad QB at all. After 8 games, All Pro WR Larry Fitzgerald has only caught 38 passes. Getting double and triple teamed makes other targets available, but until the Cardinals figure out how to play better defense (until last week they gave up over 30 points per game 4 weeks in a row). I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE I JUST CAN’T GIVE 14 AT HOME WITH THE EAGLES. PASS.

HOUSTON (6-3) -3 AT TAMPA BAY (4-4) (44 ½)

HERE’S ANOTHER GAME THAT SHOULD BE A TIGHT, WELL PLAYED CONTEST! I keep pointing it out because I don’t remember the last time there were any more toss-up games in one weekend as this coming weekend. The Texans have a very formidable offense with two very good running backs in Arian Foster and Ben Tate. They are rushing for almost 150 yards per game. Matt Schaub has thrown 13TD’s and only 6 pics so far in 9 games. With Wade Phillips at the helm of their defense, which has gone from almost last in the league to first, this Texans team has improved greatly this season. Their record of 6-3 really doesn’t reflect how good this team is, in my opinion. Tampa Bay, on the other side of the ball, is struggling this year. Their schedule has been a tough one so far and they have beaten Atlanta and New Orleans at home so far this season. HOWEVER, I feel that this week at home against this Texans team, they just won’t have the weapons to score enough points to beat the Texans this weekend. Don’t get me wrong. The Bucs have an excellent QB in Josh Freeman. The problem that the Bucs have, with the exception of RB LeGarrette Blount, they really don’t have any playmakers with Freeman. Freeman may be their BEST PLAYMAKER. The Bucs are giving up almost 5 yards a pop against the run. The Texans have a much better pass defense than the Bucs. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS ON THE ROAD TO BEAT THE BUCS AND COVER THE SPREAD.

BALTIMORE (6-2) -6½ OVER SEATTLE (2-6) (41)

Everyone in the country is on the Ravens here. That’s not a good thing in my opinion. I’m a big fan personally of the Ravens and their organization but they are coming off a HUGE win against the Steelers in Heinz Field and I find it hard to believe that traveling cross country and playing a pretty lousy Seahawk team (that is capable of winning, by the way) isn’t going to be a good situation for me or anyone I know to take the Ravens giving up a touchdown here. You never know who’s going to show up on the Seahawks. After traveling cross country and beating a good Giants team, the Seahawks have lost three games in a row. I don’t see them winning the game here, but I do see the possibility of them keeping it close against a possibly flat Ravens team. I could be wrong here (I’ve been wrong before) but I’m PASSING ON THE GAME BECAUSE IT’S JUST NOT A GOOD SPOT FOR THE RAVENS. I may change my mind but I doubt it.

SAN FRANCISCO (7-1) -3½ OVER GIANTS (43½)

I’m becoming a 49er fan. Hey, several years ago when the 49ers were going to Super Bowl’s with those GREAT teams of the 80’s and 90’s, I was a big fan. Since then, not so much because they really didn’t have much going on right there. Now with a new coach, Jim Harbaugh, and an old school running attack and offense (which I love by the way), they are proving that they are for real. They could EASILY be undefeated this year, but let’s not get too excited. Even though they’re a LOCK to win the NFC West, the other teams in the West are not very good. However, this weekend the 49ers take on a pretty good Giants team with goals and aspirations of their own this season. This Giants team looks SO MUCH like the one that beat the Pats in the Super Bowl a few years ago that it is scary. Eli Manning, without having to look over his shoulder at his older brother dominating this year, is having a phenomenal year. He is proving his is the guy he tried to tell us he was before the season started. The Giants are struggling with their running game surprisingly, but their offensive line has changed somewhat personnel wise. Defensively the Giants can RUSH THE PASSER BIG TIME! This team puts so much pressure on the opposing offensive lines and QB’s that it seems the opposing offenses spend most of the game trying to make changes to protect. Brandon Jacobs last week had a great game. I was down on him. Maybe he heard my show (couldn’t have) but somehow he was extremely motivated. They hope to get Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks back on the offense this week. If they do, and they probably will, the 49ers defensive back have their hands full. ANYONE CAN WIN THIS GAME. I’d love to take the 49ers, who will bang Frank Gore into the line for 25 carries or so, and throw to him out of the backfield, and try to stretch the field with Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree. However, if the Giants pass rush comes, they’ll be keeping Gore in the backfield to block on passing plays. The best way for the 49ers to combat the pass rush is to RUN THE FOOTBALL, and guess what? They will. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE LIKE SO MANY OF THE GAMES THIS WEEKEND, EITHER TEAM CAN WIN THE GAME!

JETS (5-3) -1½ OVER NEW ENGLAND (5-3) (47½)

HERE’S ANOTHER TOSS UP! WHAT A GREAT WEEKEND! Anyway, here’s a playoff game. New England has Super Bowl wins this past decade. The Jets have been to two straight AFC championship games. MAKE NO MISTAKE ABOUT IT. THIS IS A PLAYOFF GAME!! It doesn’t get any better than this. The Pats started out as 2 ½ point favorites and quickly the Jets became the betting favorite. The public isn’t always stupid. Just usually. Anyone could see that this Pats team just isn’t the same team they’ve been in the past and it’s not just their defense that isn’t as good. It’s their offense too. They really don’t have a burner at WR that can stretch the field that they’ve had in the past. Last week against the Giants in Foxboro, the Pats could have won, but mistakes and just the bad luck of scoring too soon helped to beat them. Now, the next week they have to take on Rex Ryan and the Jets. This isn’t going to be pretty. You probably won’t get a better value ever than the Jets almost EVEN at home. Last week, normally I’d have been all over the Jets against the Bills because I had a feeling that Fitzpatrick wasn’t 100% and if you’re QB isn’t 100% against a Rex Ryan defense, you’re in trouble. I even took the Bills because they have been the better team all season long. The Bills had their worst game of the season last week and Fitzpatrick wasn’t a factor. This week, the Jets are still not getting enough respect AND the Pats are probably getting too much respect still in Vegas. The Jets won’t get a better opportunity to beat the Pats than this weekend minus the 1½. If the Pats lose this week to the Jets, it will be their 3rd loss in a row. I can’t even remember the last time the Pats lost 3 in a row. LaDanian Tomlinson and Shonn Greene seem to be running downhill right now. Mark Sanchez is improving He has only thrown 7 picks all season long and is getting more comfortable with Plaxico Burress. Tom Brady has looked bothered to say the least going back and throwing for the Pats. Injuries haven’t helped, but I think that the Jets will take away the pass for the most part and make the Pats run the football. They’ll even have a tough time doing that. TAKE THE JETS MINUS THE SMALL POINTSPREAD FOR 4 STARS. THE MORE I LOOK AT THIS GAME, THE MORE I LIKE IT. ONLY A SANCHEZ MELTDOWN WILL COST THEM THIS GAME.

GREEN BAY (8-0) -13 OVER MINNESOTA (2-6) (51)

Finally a game that shouldn’t be close, but will it be a blowout? Maybe not. Last time these two got together, it was Christian Ponder’s second start and he kept the Vikings close with a 33-27 loss at home. They just wouldn’t quit. The Vikings have weapons despite their 2-6 record. They probably have a HOF RB in Adrian Peterson. He is, in my opinion, the best running back in the league. He has 9 TD’s and is averaging just under 5 yards per carry. Percy Harvin is healthy and is leading the team with 31 receptions but no touchdowns yet. Percy is also carrying the ball out of the backfield. Toby Gerhart needs more touches because he’s averaging 5.9 yards per carry. I HAVE THE VIKINGS RATED AS AN OK TEAM DESPITE THEIR 2-6 RECORD. TOUGH DIVISION. On the Packers side of the ball, what can you say? They haven’t lost since early December last year!! Aaron Rodgers is breaking all kinds of QB and offensive records. He is completing over 72% of his passes and his QB rating is 127. UNREAL! He throws regularly to 7 or 8 different receivers. James Starks has replaced Ryan Grant as the starter at RB. He’s averaging 4.6 yards per carry. The only thing that scares me here for the Packers is that the Vikings showed no fear the last time they played. 13 POINTS IS WAY TOO MANY POINTS TO GIVE IN A DIVISION RIVALRY LIKE THIS. BESIDES, THE PACK SEEMS TO BE CRUISING(who can blame them?) LATELY SO I’M PASSING ON THE GAME!!

SUMMARY OF PICKS

ATLANTA -1 OVER NEW ORLEANS 4
OVER 43 ½ CHICAGO-DETROIT 3
CINCINNATI +3 OVER PITTSBURGH 3
ST. LOUIS +3 OVER CLEVELAND 3
UNDER 36 CLEVELAND-ST.LOUIS 3
JACKSONVILLE -3 OVER INDY 3
MIAMI -4 OVER REDSKINS 4
HOUSTON -3 OVER TAMPA BAY 3
JETS -1½ OVER NEW ENGLAND 3
OVER 47½ JETS-NEW ENGLAND 4
OVER 51 MINNESOTA-GREEN BAY 3
SAN FRANCISCO -3 ½ OVER GIANTS 3

Plays for Week 9

The Bills not surprisingly ended their drought in Canada by shutting out the punchless Redskins 23-0 last week. The Skins couldn’t do anything and by last count were sacked 10 times on offense. This is from a defense that had only 6 or 7 sacks to that point in the season. One thing that has me concerned is the health of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick that was only hit one time trying to throw last week, but the time he was hit he was absolutely DRILLED in the chest by London Fletcher of the Skins. How he got up, I have no idea, but evidently after the soreness set in from the hit, he’s been limited this week in practice. That could be a problem. He is their guy. The Jets come in off their bye week and really need a win badly or they drop back down to .500 before the game with New England next week. The Jets are 4-0 at home and have yet to win on the road. The Bills go back to Rich Stadium where they are 3-0 so far this season. I have Buffalo rated as a GOOD TEAM and I have the Jets rated as just OK. The 1 ½ point line is a phenomenal value for any handicapper and I would be STUPID not to take the Bills here, but the QB situation has me concerned. Honestly, they are at least a 4 point favorite here. However, if the Jets are going to get going sooner or later on the road and into the playoffs this year, they have to start somewhere. It IS a short trip to Buffalo from New York. They really haven’t beaten anyone any good except their big comeback opening day against Dallas and even Rex would say that had some luck involved. There should be plenty of points scored in this game. Usually the Bills give up yardage on the ground and don’t pressure the quarterback very well. Sanchez and his running game if they play turnover free should put some points on the board. Plaxico Burress is questionable for this game. The Bills seem to put points up every week. I’m going to TAKE BUFFALO MINUS THE TINY LINE AND ALSO THE OVER FOR 4 STARS AS A HEDGE. The Bills are definitely the better team here. After this game the Bills go on the road for 3 straight games so they really need this game just as badly as the Jets do. Rex coached teams have averaged over 250 yards on the ground in their 4 previous meetings. I look for the Jets to run the football more than they have so far this year.
DALLAS (3-4) – 11 OVE R SEATTLE (2-5) (44 ½ )

The Cowboys took a huge step backwards last week when they showed up in Philly and looked like they didn’t prepare at all for the Eagles. They were terrible and NEVER in the game. The Cowboys schedule has been tough to this point and isn’t going to get much better. If they can’t beat the Seahawks at home this weekend, they should start looking at making changes for next year already. On the positive side last week, the Cowboys DeMarcus Ware had 4 sacks. That is the first time that’s been done since Charles Haley 20 years ago. I have the Seahawks rated as a OK—TEAM and the Cowboys rated as a OK+ team. The Boys are at home and coming off a horrible loss. However, the Seahawks have shown they can travel and win earlier this year with a win against the New York Giants. To take the Seahawks lightly would be a BIG MISTAKE! What a difference a week makes. Two weeks ago the Cowboys beat the winless (at the time) Rams team 34-7, then lost by the same score to Philly last week. It seems that the Eagles are getting ready to make a run. A far cry from everyone in Philly wanting Andy Reid and Juan Castillo fired a couple of weeks ago. The Seahawks at times have looked decent this year, but last week they were crushed at home against the Cincinnati Bengals and their defense. Tavaris Jackson should get the start for the Seahawks this week and Marshawn Lynch is healthy. Sean Lee, the great linebacker for the Cowboys is out for the game. Mike Jenkins and Felix Jones are still out. Cowboy RB Tashard Choice was waived this past week and picked up. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE THE NUMBER IS ACCURATE AND ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN IN THE LAST 5 MINUTES OF THE GAME. PASS. SEE TONY ROMO!
HOUSTON (5-3) -10 ½ OVER CLEVELAND (3-4) (41)

The Browns have MANY problems but their biggest problem is no Peyton Hillis (for whatever reason) and NO offense. Their defense is pretty good but they can’t score on offense. Colt McCoy looks lost on the field at times but to his credit has only thrown 5 picks so far this season. Peyton Hillis (surprise) pulled a hammy and is OUT for the game. So is Mario Hardesty. That means that the Browns will probably be starting a practice team player or two in the backfield. Early in the week it looked like Andre Johnson might be back for the Texans but he is now OUT for the game. They already have lost their best defensive lineman, Mario Williams for the season, but his replacement has played well. In my opinion, the difference in the Texans so far this season ahs been Wade Phillips and what he’s done to this defense. Not only can the Texans score points, but NOW they can play some defense too. I have CLEVELAND RATED AS AN OK- TEAM. I HAVE THE TEXANS, even though their record is just 5-3, RATED AS A GOOD TEAM. They are at home and should handle the Browns in this matchup easily, even though the Browns have a good defense. The Texans have two of the best running backs in the league in Arian Foster and Ben Tate. The Texans are 28-2 under Gary Kubiak’s tenure when they run the ball at least 30 times. Hey, RUN THE FREAKING BALL 30 TIMES GARY, OK!! I look for the Texans to beat the Browns and COVER THE POINTSPREAD. I’M TAKING THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. The Cleveland offense absolutely sucks.
ATLANTA (4-3) – 7 OVER INDY (0-8) (44½)

The last time I watched the Falcons play, they looked like a much better team than earlier this season. Matt Ryan owns an NFL best 26-6 records in domed stadiums. This week they play in a domed stadium. They also play against probably the WORST team in the league. The Falcons defensive backs have played 3 good games in a row. They should be able to keep Curtis Painter and the Colts between the 20’s and out of the end zone, but let’s not speak too quickly. This is probably ONE of the few games the Colts have a chance of keeping close and possibly winning. The question here is WHY would they want to win? Andrew Luck is possibly the best QB to come out of college in many years and if the Colts win 2 or 3 or 4 games, they’ve screwed their chance of getting a successor to Peyton Manning, who in my opinion, may not be coming back at all. Offensively, the Colts still have some weapons, they just can’t keep anyone from scoring when they turn the ball over to them. I HAVE THE FALCONS RATED AS AN OK TEAM. I HAVE THE COLTS RATED AS A SUCK TEAM. The Colts non-secondary gives up a 72.3% passing percentage. They give up a 112.2 QB rating per game. They’re giving up 33 points per game!! I would love to take the Colts here because all of the money and straight plays are on the Falcons AND the Colts are at home, but they are SO FREAKING BAD! The Colts allow the opposing offenses to control the ball an AVERAGE of 35 minutes per game. I’m going to PASS ON THE GAME because the side I like is the Colts side here and I’d be OUT OF MY DAMN MIND TO PLAY THE COLTS FOR ANY REASON HERE. My name is NOT Joe Theisman (rymes with Heisman but not really) It’s not like the Falcons can afford to lose this game. A loss here to the pathetic Colts hurts their playoff chances terribly I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME AND JUST WATCH A FEW SHOTS OF IT ON RED ZONE HOPEFULLY.
KANSAS CITY (4-3) -4 OVER MIAMI (0-7) (40½)

Wow, maybe one of the greatest turnarounds in the history of NFL, K.C. going from 0-3 and looking HORRIBLE to winning 4 straight and beating NORV, WHICH I CALLED BY THE WAY! Talk about a really weird line here. The Chiefs just beat San Diego, supposedly a decent team as a home dog this past week, and now play at home again against a winless team in the Dolphins who are…maybe in the Andrew Luck competition for sure and they are only 4 point favorites. This line almost says the two teams are exactly the same if they played on a neutral field. I’d say that’s not true. There’s no way the Dolphins are as good as the Chiefs but maybe the close game with the Giants last week has everyone fooled. That doesn’t fool me. The Giants usually cruise and don’t play well at home anyway. I know that, but I guess Vegas doesn’t so we’ll take advantage of that. Personally, it absolutely looks like a trap, BUT, value is value and the fans in K.C. (and the head coaches’ beard) are saying GO CHIEFS, GO CHIEFS, GO CHIEFS! Matt Cassel and head coach Todd Haley seem to do great while they are cursing at each other and hey, if you keep winning, keep cursing at each other. Haley seems to be a decent game day coach. I like what I see (even though he’s a great golfer) and he’s making GM Paoli, who I’m not sold on, look good. Many “pundits” are saying that the Chiefs may have the best team in the West. I say it’s early and that division is ALWAYS up for grabs, but they certainly have looked good lately. Miami RB Daniel Thomas is still questionable with a bad hamstring and even though Reggie Bush looked decent last week against the Giants (they’re run defense isn’t good), the Chiefs should be tougher especially in their place. Their fans always make problems for the offensive snap count situation. Here’s the problem for the Dolphins as I see it. Matt Moore has thrown just ONE TD pass all season long. The Dolphins defense has given up 14 TD passes so far this season. Do the math. That has a lot to do with their 0-7 record. The Chiefs have too many weapons throwing the ball for the Dolphins to be able to stop them especially at home. The Chiefs have a 1-2 punch of Jackie Battle and Dexter McCluster going right now. These kids are playing some ball. Dwayne Bowe and Steve Breaston are providing Cassel with good targets down the field. Bowe is a monster. Miami, on the other hand, has struggled trying to throw the ball. Brandon Marshall has only caught one TD all season long. If Miami is ever going to get into the winner’s column, they’ll have to get their receivers more involved. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS FOR A SMALL PLAY HERE, 3 STARS.

NEW ORLEANS (5-3) -8 OVER TAMPA BAY ((4-3) (50)

The Saints are coming off a big letdown game against the Rams who beat them soundly in St. Louis for their first win of the season. Three weeks ago the Saints lost to the Bucs in Tampa by a score of 26-20. This is a game New Orleans must win to get back on top of their division and square up their series with the rival Bucs. The Bucs can’t afford to lose here either and if they win, they will SWEEP the Saints this year. Drew Brees has struggled at times this year with interceptions and must get his command of his throws back. A lot of his problems stem from pass protection. He lost his starting center to retirement two weeks ago. Even though he’s thrown for 2,746 yards so far this year, he’s been picked off 10 times. Injuries haven’t helped either. The Saints defense has only picked off 4 of their opponents’ passes all season. Gregg Williams’ defense has also given up a whopping 5.5 yards per carry this year on the ground. This defense is NOT very good. They will have to do a much better job on the defensive side of the ball to take the pressure off of Brees feeling like he has to score every time he touches the ball. No matter what happens this week, I see the Saints AND the Bucs scoring a lot of points this week inside the Super Dome in New Orleans. I’m going to play the OVER 50 POINTS FOR 5 STARS THIS WEEK. Tampa is coming off a bye week after their trip to London where they didn’t show up to play till the second half. This is going to be a hard played game on both sides of the ball for both teams. Great game to watch.
SAN FRANCISCO (6-1) -4 OVER SKINS (3-4) (37½)

Jim Harbaugh, besides having to learn how to shake hands the “NFL way” has been exactly what the franchise needed in a head coach this year. They could be undefeated had it not been for a late meltdown early in the season against Dallas. They can run the ball as good as anyone in the league right now. Frank Gore has averaged over 120 yards per game over the past four starts. Alex Smith has finally found the guy that can show him how to play QB in the NFL and be successful. He has one of the best pass receiving tight ends in the league in Vernon Davis from Maryland. The Redskins played their worst game of the year last week getting shut out in Toronto by the Bills. It was the first time EVER that Mike Shanahan has been shut out in the NFL. John Beck, who will be starting his 3rd game in a row with the Redskins WAS SACKED 10 TIMES last week. That’s almost hard to believe but injuries on the offensive line have left the Skins in a terrible situation in run blocking and especially pass protection. The Redskins defense miraculously only gave up 23 points last week having been on the field for two thirds of the game. London Fletcher had a bad hamstring and somehow made 20 tackles. That’s about 19 more than anyone else made. This should be a low scoring affair because I see the 49ers coming out running the football successfully and the Redskins fighting to just be able to score points. Anything else would be a surprise believe me. I HAVE THE 49ERS RATED AS A GOOD TEAM. I HAVE THE SKINS RATED AS AN OK—TEAM. TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. The 49ers have beaten Cincinnati, Philly, Tampa Bay, and Detroit. All of these teams are substantially better than the Skins. Sadly, I’ll be at the game wishing Dan Snyder had hired Jim Harbaugh away from Stanford instead of bringing in Mike Shanahan and his son Kyle. I wish I was the GM of this team. I’d have a winner again in 2 or 3 years. Trickle down effect from the owner’s box. He sucks. They suck.
OAKLAND (4-3) -7 OVER DENVER (2-5) (42½)

The Raiders are home after their bye week and a 28-0 thrashing at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs at home the week before. The Raiders are a team in transition since they made the deal for Carson Palmer to be their starting QB and QB of the future. Darren McFadden, the Raiders star running back is out. The Raiders just signed Palmer’s good friend and former Bengal teammate T.J. Housyourdaddy and that can’t hurt, but how much can it help? This game is a complete toss up because nobody (even me) knows what kind of effect a QB who has only been working out for two weeks is going to have, no matter how good he is. There’s no way I’m giving anyone advice to take a team as an 7 point favorite with all of these changes and coming off a horrible performance, even if a bye week is included in there. Tim Tebow is on double secret probation at Faber, I mean Denver, and is probably the most talked about young man in the world and he hasn’t killed anyone. He’s the QB of the Broncos. The big question here is, Is he the future QB of the Broncos. Another bad performance will probably put Tebow on the bench and mean another Denver loss. Maybe John Fox will only win 2 games here in Denver just like he did last year in Carolina. Willis McGahee is still out so Ball and Moreno will provide what running yardage Denver will have. The offensive line of the Broncos is having a hard time pass blocking and with McGahee out, Tebow is their best runner. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE IT’S JUST PLAIN BUTT UGLY AND THERE ARE FAR TOO MANY UNKNOWNS. PASS.
TENNESSEE (4-3) -3 OVER CINCINNATI (5-2) (41½)

After beating a pitiful Cleveland team a month ago, the Titans have really done nothing since. Houston came to Nashville two weeks ago and DESTROYED the Titans. After signing a new contract, Chris Johnson is averaging 2.8 yards per carry. I’d be brain dead by now, but I think at age 57 I could run for 2.8 yards per carry. I would at least go north and south and run as hard as I can. Matt Hasselbeck is a capable QB and has looked very good so far this season but the Titans NEED TO RUN THE FOOTBALL TO BE EFFECTIVE! Javon Ringer, C.J.’s backup, should get more touches this week. Coach Mike Munchak is losing patience with Johnson and won’t take much more. Cincinncati, on the other hand, is the better team here even though the Titans for some reason are the favorite. I’m tempted here to go with rookie Andy Dalton and his great defense on the Bengals side of the ball, but everyone else in the country is already doing that and the Titans DO NEED A WIN BADLY. The Bengals are playing well, but their schedule has been weak. Besides losing to a good 49ers team 13-8 and beating a tough Buffalo team 23-20, they haven’t played anyone really. HOWEVER, THEY PLAY THE STEELERS AND THE RAVENS 4 TIMES DURING THEIR LAST 8 GAMES OF THE SEASON! Having said that, the Bengals need this win desperately. Tennessee is a good place for them to come in to and get a win. They get Cedrick Benson back from his one game suspension this week and rookie WR A.J. Green has been awesome. He and Dalton will provide Bengals fans some hope for a long while. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE IT JUST SMELLS LIKE A TRAP. Everyone in the country feels like I do and is betting on the Bengals. If C.J. gets it together and they can keep the Bengals defense on the field for a while, the Titans can come out with a victory here. They certainly need it worse than the Bengals do right now AND they’re at home. PASS.
ST. LOUIS (1-6) +3 AT ARIZONA (1-6) (41)

It’s finally official. We know who the WORST ANNOUNCING CREW FOR FOX SPORTS TV ARE THIS YEAR!! IT’S SAM ROSEN AND CHAD PENNINGTON BECAUSE THEY ARE ANNOUNCING THIS GAME! A combined 2-12 record for these two teams makes this the worst game of the week for sure. Last week A.J. Feeley somehow guided the Rams to a 31-21 victory over a Saints team that came in 13½ point favorites. This was the Rams first win of the season. It was horrible not just because we were on the Saints. It was horrible because Drew Brees looked like he was confused and that usually never happens. Steven Jackson totaled 191 yards from scrimmage against a Saints defense that is slowly playing New Orleans out of the playoff hunt. I expect Steven will show up again this week and start pounding the Cardinals linebackers and defensive backs with that big body of his early in the game. The Cardinals since winning on opening day against the Carolina Panthers, have not figured out to come out on top since. The past two weeks they played well against Pittsburgh and Baltimore so a step down in class this week could come at a good time. The big question here is are they healthy enough? The Cardinals offense has Beanie Wells to run the ball and Larry Fitzgerald and company to move through the air, but Kevin Kolb, who signed a huge deal with the Cards before this season, is struggling because they’re having a hard time playing catch up. Now it looks like Kolb won’t be playing this game on Sunday because of turf toe. John Skelton will get the start for Arizona, a second year backup that honestly can’t play much worse than Kolb has so far. If the Cardinals can’t beat the Rams this week at home, I would think big changes might be put in place in Arizona for the future. The Cardinals defense has given up over 30 points in their past 4 games with a bye week thrown in there for good measure. That’s not a good thing. If Arizona showed me any chance of improving, then I’d be all over them here getting 2 points at home against a DOME team that had not won a game until last week. Sam Bradford might get the start for the Rams and that will be a good thing for them. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME.
NEW ENGLAND (5-2) -9 OVER GIANTS (5-2) (51)

This is going to be a very interesting game to watch because there is SO much going on here. The Pats are coming off losing to the Steelers last week where they looked pretty bad. The Giants are coming off a comeback victory over the weak Miami Dolphins but they only really played a half of football. I have the GIANTS RATED AS AN OK TEAM. THE PATS ARE OK+. Eli Manning and Tom Brady are both having two of the best years so far in the league for QB’s averaging over 100 QB rating per game. The Giants begin a 6 week EXTREMELY TOUGH STRETCH OF GAMES here in New England. Their next 5 weeks are at San Francisco, Philly, at New Orleans, Green Bay, and at Dallas. That is BRUTAL. Brandon Jacobs is talking so much smack that it’s obvious he wants out of New York, but he will definitely get more touches this week but how effective will he be? Eli’s receivers have looked good this year but Hakeem Nicks is OUT for this game. RB Ahmad Bradshaw is OUT for the game. C David Baas may be OUT. DE Jean Pierre-Paul may be OUT with a concussion. Cruz and Manningham both are capable WR’s and will do fine but will they be able to keep up with Pats? Brandon Jacobs gets the start, but will he be able to back up all the smack he talks? The question here for the Giants, and they are on the road which is where I prefer them, is can they outscore the Pats? After watching the Pats last week, you’d have to say they have a chance, but I’m sure that Brady and Belichick will come back this week with a strong game plan. Wes Welker is banged up. Curtis Edelmen is allegedly groping girls in night clubs. Is Law Firm healthy? It’s like everyone I hear on TV is saying. I doubt the Pats will lose two in a row, but who knows? Either way, it’s going to be a barnburner. I LOVE THE OVER 51 POINTS HERE FOR 5 STARS (WATCH THE WEATHER)I’m PASSING ON THE SPREAD LINE BECAUSE EVEN THOUGH IT’S AN AWAY GAME, I SEE BRADY TOTALLY OUTDUELING ELI IN THIS ONE, ESPECIALLY WITH SOME OF HIS BIG WEAPONS OUT FOR THE GAME. PATS WILL WIN.
GREEN BAY (7-0) -5 ½ AT SAN DIEGO (4-3)(51)

Normally I’d love the over here and I may take it late anyway, but I’m not sure that San Diego can score enough points even at home to make that a smart play here. Green Bay is the top team in the league here. They’re coming off a bye week and hopefully they’ve healed up a bit and everyone is still on top of their game. THE PACKERS ARE THE BEST TEAM IN THE NFL AND ARE RATED A GOOD TEAM. THE CHARGERS ARE JUST OK. I really don’t see any way that the Chargers can stay with the Packers in this game. They’ve lost two games in a row to the Chiefs and the Jets. They haven’t been home for a month and should get some kind of bump from that, but their last game at home they beat the winless Miami Dolphins 27-17. Normally this would be a great spot for a play on San Diego getting so many points at home. The problem here is that I don’t think San Diego is that good. And they are hurt. Dielman is still out. Matthews and Floyd are out. Shaun Phillips is out. They’re banged up! It’s a weak division. Green Bay would have to look pretty dysfunctional here to not beat the Chargers by at least a touchdown. Last week Matt Cassel carved up the Chargers secondary in the second half to win. His line gave him plenty of time to throw. I don’t really see anything changing quickly for the Chargers. Aaron Rodgers has 20 TD’s with just 3 picks. Phillip Rivers has 7 TD’s with 11 picks. The Chargers defense isn’t nearly as good as the Packers’ D. You do the math. I’M TAKING THE PACKERS MINUST THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. Chargers coming off short week isn’t the week to start looking at Norv’s team to cover, let alone to win.
PITTSBURGH (6-2) -3 OVER BALTIMORE (5-2) (42)

You know this game is gonna come down to defense but is it really? Big Ben has been hot lately leading the Steelers to winning 4 in a row. He’s thrown for over 300 yards two games in a row. He’s on a pace to break his own team record this season. Last week they dominated a New England team that’s pretty damn good. They lost to the Ravens on opening day (I was there) and it was a horrible loss but the lockout hurt teams differently and the Steelers were one of the NFL teams it did hurt. They didn’t even look like they had a chance the entire game. They have made some changes, adjusted to some injuries, and now they look completely different. The Ravens, on the other hand, have gone the wrong direction since the opener. Even though they beat the Jets and Houston at home, they lost on national TV to Jacksonville and barely came back to win last week against a weak Cardinals team that has only won one game so far this season. How they answer this week will say a lot about their team. Personally, I’d hate to come into Pittsburgh and play against the Steelers right now if I were Harbaugh and the Ravens. Lamar Woodley is OUT, but they’re getting the toughest defensive player in the league back this week in James Harrison. Harrison’s return will give the Steelers a jump start for sure. This, like the first meeting, is basically a playoff game. Both teams need to establish the run or have some success with their short passing game to be successful. Hines Ward may play. Legursky’s still OUT. WR Emmanuel Sanders’ mother passed away and he’s probably OUT also. I’m going to pass on the game straight up but TAKE THE OVER 42 POINTS FOR 4 STARS. The winner here may score over 30. I’m leaning towards the Steelers so, EITHER EMAIL ME OR CALL ME AT 1-800-466-4748 AND CHECK ON MY PLAY FOR THIS GAME ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SHOW OR JUST AFTER THE SHOW!!
PHILLY (3-4) -7 ½ OVER CHICAGO (4-3) (47)

It’s hard to believe that this Eagles team still is below .500. A couple of weeks ago, everyone wanted Andy Reid’s job. They were in the process of trying to find something that would work defensively for all their talent. Last week they seemed to find it in a 34-7 shallacking of the Cowboys who looked like they have NO chance to do anything this year. That’s how good the defense for the Eagles looked. They also got a super performance out of LeSean McCoy who is looking like the best running back in the NFC right now. You hear that Mr. Forte. Seriously, two of the best running backs in the league face off at Lincoln Financial in Philly on Monday night. Personally, I don’t see how the Bears can match up with them on both sides of the ball. Add to that the truth that every time Mike Vick pulls the ball down and runs with it he AVERAGES over 8 yards per carry. Vick again is the difference here. Defensively, the Eagles pass rush has improved dramatically. They’ve sacked the opposing QB’s 22 times this season so far and Cutler has BEEN sacked 21 times. If they get the pressure they probably will, I doubt Cutler will have much time to throw down the field. Matt Forte and his ability to carve out smaller pieces of yardage will be the difference here. If the Eagles defense can bottle up the Bears offense in the box, then it will be a long night for the Bears. The line here is 7½ which is a lot of points. I’m going to PASS on the game at present and see what kind of action seems to be on here before Monday. Also, the health of Julius Peppers is key here also. If he plays, a much better chance for the Bears. PASS ON THE GAME.

Plays for Week 8

BALTIMORE (4-2) -13 OVER ARIZONA (1-5) (43 )

The Ravens are coming off maybe the worst offensive game I’ve ever seen them play on Monday night and Arizona comes off a home loss to the improving Pittsburgh Steelers that showed they had a lot to work on during the week. Joe Flacco was horrible but it wasn’t entirely his fault. His receivers got no separation and they weren’t able to run the football against a tough front 7 of Jacksonville. The chances of Blaine Gabbert being on the winning side of a game against the Ravens defense were like 1 in 100 but he came away with the win. The Ravens defense also had a hard time stopping Maurice Jones-Drew in the second half even though he fumbled 3 times in the first half. Arizona is having a hard time on offense period. Kevin Kolb so far hasn’t proven to be the guy they thought he was going to be but it isn’t entirely his fault. Larry Fitzgerald will always be a weapon in this offense, but not if he’s double and triple teamed all the time. Early Doucet is OK. Todd Heap has been banged up. Beanie Wells has scored 6 touchdowns and at times has looked great, but he’s banged up with a hamstring that comes and goes. They’ve had some problems in the clubhouse with attitude and things like that for the first time I can remember. The Cards defense has given up a 94 QB rating so far and that should help Flacco and Baltimore this weekend. I look for Baltimore to come out after a good week of practice and establish the run and beat the weak secondary of the Cards from the start of the game. The Ravens defense is one of the top 3 in the league. I’m going TO PASS ON THE GAME BECAUSE 13 POINTS FOR THIS RAVENS OFFENSE IS JUST TOO MANY! All of a sudden, I’m not really sure what their offense looks like.

CAROLINA (2-5) -3 ½ OVER MINNESOTA (1-6) (47)

Carolina and their rookie star QB Cam Newton are fresh of beating a Redskins team that is headed the wrong direction fast. Cam didn’t throw for the yardage he has so far this season, but he didn’t turn the ball over and looked great with his decision making. D’Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart both looked great running the football. Newton himself has run for 7 touchdowns this season and thrown for another 8. The Panther defense leaves a lot to be desired but they are improving. I liked what I saw in Charlotte last week with the Panthers. The Vikings started their first round draft pick Christian Ponder from Florida State last week and although his completion percentage was low, he showed leadership qualities that haven’t been seen this year so far with Donovan McNabb. I love this kid and he has a future in the NFL. Adrian Peterson has scored 8 touchdowns so far this season and rushed for 712 yards for a 4.9 yard average. He is a force that Carolina will have to prepare for. I doubt they’ll stop him. If they do, it will open up the passing lanes for the rookie Ponder and he may have a big day. I like the OVER in this game because both teams should be able to score. Matching these two rookies up in this game to me is going to make for a very interesting projection into the future of both of these teams. Whoever has the best defense, and usually that’s Minnesota, may very well win the game. Minnesota, however will have to make sure they have a plan for limiting Newton’s favorite target, All Pro Steve Smith, if they are going to win. TAKE THE OVER 44 ½ POINTS IN THIS GAME FOR 5 STARS. LOVE IT. CHECK THE WEATHER. There should be a lot of scoring in this game. I really think that Ponder and Newton will light it up.

HOUSTON (4-3) -9 ½ OVER JACKSONVILLE (2-5) (40 ½)

I was extremely surprised to see the Texans get it together so well last week in a big hurry banged up with their two best players on the bench, to beat up a home team in the Titans. It wasn’t even a decent game. Houston DESTROYED the Titans last week and after watching the game, it was uglier than the score looked. The Jaguars are coming off their game of the year where they UPSET the visiting Baltimore Ravens and showed the league that at least they have a good defense. A lot of that result was because of the ineptitude of the Ravens offense, but don’t take anything away from the Jags. They played a great game on both sides of the ball. Matt Schaub who was banged up pretty badly the week before, got his game together and looked great. Arian Foster, their All Pro running back is healthy again and last week the Titans paid the price. There’s a chance that Andre Johnson, their All Pro wide out will be able to play this week, but even if he doesn’t, they’ve figured out a way to move the football without him. In their two division games so far this year, the Texans have outscored Indy and Tennessee by a score of 75-14. I see that continuing this week. Jacksonville may come off this short week with some confidence, but I don’t think that will help in Houston this week. I’M TAKING THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS AGAINST THE JAGS.

GIANTS (4-2) -9 ½ OVER MIAMI (0-6) (42)

Everyone that knows me knows I like what I see in the Giants so far this season. After 6 games, they are 4-2 and coming off a bye week. Brandon Jacobs is running his mouth even though he can’t get out on the field and back it up. Justin Tuck is back healthy and will play this week. We also know that until a couple of weeks ago, Tony Sparano, the browbeat head coach who has his house on the market hadn’t EVER lost to a New York team till the Jets a couple of weeks ago. We think that has something to do with his ties to the underworld (oh wrong Tony), but after losing to the Jets a couple of weeks ago, they look like they’re ready for the draft. I know that Sparano won’t give up. He is a decent coach, but this team is doing NOTHING. They’ve only scored 15 points a game so far but have played a pretty good schedule so far. They’re offense has only converted 3 out of their last 25 third downs in the past two games. Their pass defense is giving up a HUGE 102.3 rating with 12 TD’s and only 2 picks. The Giants, on the other hand, have some problems of their own even though I like where they are right now. Eli Manning and the offense are scoring points this year. Their schedule has been a bit soft so far but they’ve beaten Philly and Buffalo. The Dolphins had a late 4th quarter meltdown to Tim Tebow and the Broncos last week and just added more pressure to the already sticky situation. They Dolphins DO have a great rookie running back in Thomas but he can’t do it on his own. If the Giants were on the road, I’d be all over this game because they, as you know from following me, ARE THE ROAD WARRIORS OF THE NFL!! However, they’re at home, and I’m also scared they might overlook this Dolphins team and come out flat and make Sparano’s relatives in New York happy. It’s not like the Giants can’t do this. We’ve seen it. However, they go on the road next week to New England (yikes) and then San Francisco which will possibly make them underdogs in both games. THEY ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO WIN THIS GAME TO HAVE A CHANCE TO WIN THEIR DIVISION THIS YEAR!! DO YOU HEAR ME GIANTS?? I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME BUT THE GIANTS WILL WIN. I’M JUST NOT SURE BY HOW MANY POINTS.

NEW ORLEANS (5-2) -13 ½ OVER ST. LOUIS (0-6) (48)

These two teams couldn’t be more different. The Rams coached by a lame duck Steve Spagnuolo, are horrible. They are showing next to nothing on offense and defense. I’m not sure who they’ve been drafting for the last three or four years, but I don’t see the improvement. They have an excellent starting QB in Sam Bradford but he can’t do it without some receivers who can get some separation from the guys on defense who are covering them. They haven’t been able to do that all year long. And on top of that, Bradford isn’t going to play this week again. A.J. Feely gets the start again this week. I HAVE THE RAMS RATED AS A SUCK TEAM. The Saints are an OK+++ team that is just under a G rating. Even though we’re indoors in St. Louis, I think if the Saints score early and often, that they will take the home fans out of the game early and maybe the boo birds will show up. The Rams do have Steven Jackson, who seems to be healthy, but they’ll stack the line of scrimmage with Gregg Williams’ game plan and make Feely throw the ball to beat them. I don’t see that happening. Brandon Lloyd is a decent, not good, addition to the Rams but he’ll take some time to get in sync with Feely and/or Bradford anyway. The Saints are coming off putting off a 60 burger on the pitiful Colts. I have no reason they won’t do that to another pitiful team this week in the Rams. I don’t see the Saints losing their focus this week because they’ll probably have their assistant call the plays again with Sean Payton upstairs watching. It seemed to work last week. Drew Brees has throw 18 TD passes so far this season. The entire Rams team has thrown just 3 TD’s all year. I’M TAKING THE SAINTS MINUST THE POINTS FOR JUST 3 STARS AND THE OVER FOR 5 STARS. LOVE THE OVER.

TENNESSEE (3-3) -8½ OVER INDY (0-7) (44)

These are two teams that aren’t in a good mood. The Colts are coming off the 3rd worst loss in NFL history. A game that I personally thought the team quit on their coach. They swear they didn’t, but I’ve been around a long time and late in the game I saw nothing on the Indy side of the ball. Curtis Painter has a 85.2 QB rating which is decent, but their defense is like a sieve. Their opponents AVERAGE over 35 minutes of possession every game so it’s hard for the Indy defense to have any chance at all of stopping the opposing offenses they face. Head Coach Jim Caldwell is embarrassed and he should be, but it’s really not his fault. I feel that Bill Poillan is more responsible for the personnel that he has to put onto the field. Sure, there are some injuries, but EVERYONE has injuries. The Titans, on the other side of the ball this week, seemed to forget to prepare for their game at home against a good Houston team who kicked the crap out of them last week 41-7. The Titans can’t run the football for some reason, even though they’ve paid their star running back Chris Johnson a TON of money. He still doesn’t look like the same RB I’ve seen for the last few years. Matt Hasselbeck has two or three receivers that can get open and he has shown in the past he can be productive, but if he has problems THIS week, he and the Titans have worse problems than we think. The only really good game the Titans have played so far this year was a win against a Ravens team coming off a big win against the Steelers opening day. I’m not sure how good this team is. I was on the Titans last week and they fooled me for sure. They may come back this week and kick the crap out of a purely pitiful excuse of a team but I’m not recommending that play. I kind of like the OVER here but not committed till Sunday either way.

BUFFALO (4-2) -4 ½ OVER WASHINGTON (3-3) (45 ½)

This is a game I’ve loved since the start. Let’s take a real look at the Redskins season so far. Since an impressive opening day win at home against the Giants, they really haven’t looked that good. They barely beat the Cards, they blew a winnable game in Dallas, they barely beat a lousy Rams team, and Philly and Carolina handled them. They really are not very good. Add to that the fact that so many good starters are injured and you get a complete breakdown waiting to happen. I can’t imagine that they will have ANY chance to travel to Canada to play the upstart and talented Bills team and WIN. It just won’t happen. But the Bills as it’s been pointed out really don’t have much of a home field advantage and are 0-3 at this field. It will be interesting to watch John Beck try to pull this offense together and move the ball, and he may do it some, but I don’t see the Skins defense shutting down the Bills talented offense. The Bills are rated as an OK++ team. The Skins are OK and they are on the road. Bills’ QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is having a good year, as a matter of fact today he just signed a new contract giving him a 5 year extension. Good move by Bills. His QB rating is 92.7. His running game is acquiring a very impressive 5.2 yards per carry with Fred Jackson from tiny Coe College in Iowa being an early MVP candidate. He has caught 24 passes for 279 yards and rushed for 601 yards and a 5.7 yard AVERAGE. That tells me Chan Gailey has it going on in Buffalo. He may be the best OC in the game that’s a head coach. Sorry Norv! The only chance the Skins have is if the Bills come out flat after their Bye week and just forget to play. TAKE BUFFALO MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. I LOVE THIS GAME AND I LOVE THE BILLS. I’M TAKING THE OVER IN THIS GAME ALSO FOR 3 STARS.

DETROIT (5-2) -3 OVER DENVER (2-4) (41 ½)

This is one very interesting matchup this week. Both teams have some strange things going on with their teams and ANYTHING can happen. First of all, the Lions are reeling a bit with injuries, bad handshakes, and two home losses in a row in a place that was supposed to be a BIG home field advantage with the noise. Now they’re on the road against a Bronco team that did nothing last week till late in the 4th quarter when they were “saved” by Tim Tebow, an onside kick, and some heroics. Detroit QB Matt Stafford has a sore ankle and is day to day but should start. He won’t be 100% though. Their starting RB Javid Best is out. Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams will split the carries at RB for the Lions. They still have the best WR in the league in Calvin Johnson and he has collected 10 TD passes so far. The Broncos have had severe problems with their pass coverage so far this season, giving up a 104.2 QB rating AVERAGE to their opponents so far and have picked off just 3 passes all season. Willis McGahee, the Denver RB who has done a great job filling in so far this season, is banged up, and is out for the game. Tim Tebow of course gets the start for the Broncos and it will be interesting to see just how he’s treated if they don’t jump out to the lead early in the game. Last week he was HORRIBLE until late in the 4th quarter. The Lions are the better team here, but the big question here is can they sustain the momentum and the scoring they had in their first 5 games of the season? Will they be able to go into Mile High and be able to score enough and play enough defense to keep Tebow from saving the day again? This could be the most interesting game of the weekend. I really think it comes down to the Broncos defense and pressure they’re able to put on a banged up Matt Stafford. If they can force him into some bad throws and shut down any running game that Detroit has, this could be a GREAT GAME. Believe it or not, I’M TAKING THE BRONCOS AT HOME GETTING THE POINTS AND TIM TEBOW (not a surprise)FOR JUST 3 STARS.

NEW ENGLAND (5-1) -2 ½ AT PITTSBURGH (5-2) (52½)

Make no mistake about it. This IS a playoff game. These may be the best two teams in the AFC this year. This game may not be the one that will advance their team to the next round or put them in the Super Bowl this year, but this game will have as much to PREPARE both teams for the next time they meet as anything they will do in practice or any film they will watch. Tom Brady is 7-1 in his last 8 games against Pittsburgh. Brady and New England continue to break offensive records on a regular basis, but that’s not what is going to put the Pats deep into the playoffs this year. The improvement of their DEFENSE in my opinion, has been what they may have been making the most progress with so far this season. The last three games they’ve given up just 19, 21, and 16 points to Oakland, the Jets, and Dallas, three very decent football teams. That is VERY impressive. Now they come off a bye week which when you talk about the Pats is a big deal. Belichick is 8-0 coming off his bye weeks with the Pats. Two weeks of preparation for Brady and Belichick’s defense is scary enough for most opposing teams. They’ve gotten a little healthier and they’ll be ready to go into Heinz Field and try to come out of there with a W. The Steelers, on the side of the ball, have looked pretty good also since laying an egg opening day in Baltimore. After a close 17-10 loss in Houston, they’ve won three in a row against three not so good teams in Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Arizona. Now they prepare for the Pats at home. Generally speaking, the Steelers, even with their great fans, play about the same at home as they do on the road. The Pats have won in Heinz Field before, thus the 3 point favorite hat their wearing. The total for the game is 52. It probably will come down to who can play the best defense will win the game, but I see both teams coming out firing with both barrels on offense. Both of these QB’s are future Hall of Famers. Ben has a 96.1 QB rating and Brady has a 104.8 rating. Both of these guys will have their receiving corps ready to move down the field and put some points on the board, thus the OVER again. I’M TAKING THE OVER 52 POINTS IF THE WEATHER IS OK FOR 5 STARS. I’M PASSING ON THE GAME STRAIGHT. 3 POINTS IS PERFECT. Best game of the weekend probably.

SAN FRANCISCO (5-1) -9 OVER CLEVELAND (3-3) (38 ½)

The 49ers seem to be for real. Jim Harbaugh has lit a fire under these guys and has them playing some great football at the present time. They could easily be 6-0 right now. I have them rated 2nd in the league in my power rating behind the Packers. The Browns, on the other hand, are somehow 3-3 having beaten three teams I have had rated currently or at some time this season as a SUCK team. Petyon Hillis is supposed to get the start this week if he’s healthy, which we’re trying to figure out who knows when that is. Colt McCoy, who is a decent QB, is having some problems because his receiving corps is suspect at best. They have to figure out a way to get the ball into their playmakers’ hands and they really don’t have many playmakers. I’d say Josh Cribbs and Hillis ARE their two playmakers. Their defense is OK but their secondary has only 4 picks this season. The 49ers are the best team the Browns have faced all season. I doubt they’ll be able to run the ball with too much success and will have a problem throwing the ball also. Alex Smith seems to have found his coach in Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh is showing his confidence in Smith and so are his players. He has a 95.2 QB rating and has only thrown 2 picks all season long. They also support Smith with a running game that averages 4.5 yards per carry AND they’ve scored 7 touchdowns. Their defense on the other side of the ball, have given up 0 touchdowns on the ground so far this season. They are tough as hell. RB Frank Gore has been healthy for the most part this season and has scored 4 TD’s this season. He is an excellent running back and if they can keep him healthy, it will just accentuate their passing game with receivers like Vernon Davis, David Crabtree, and Tracy Morgan. I’M TAKING THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. THIS IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THEM TO CRUSH A TEAM RIGHT AFTER THEIR BYE WEEK.

CINCINNATI (4-2) -1 ½ OVER SEATTLE (2-4) (37½)

The Bengals are a pretty damn good team. They lost to a very good 49ers team and somehow early this season lost to Denver at Mile High. They did beat Buffalo three weeks ago at home which was a big deal and a big win. Marvin Lewis seems to have found a formula for this team that works this year. They have a rookie QB from TCU, Andy Dalton, calling the signals and he’s doing a great job. He’s more mature than most rookies and whoever did the scouting and signing of this kid needs a raise in salary. I doubt he’ll get it from the Brown family though. Cedrick Benson is getting the ball regularly and even though he’s not ripping of big chunks of yardage, he’s gotr 458 yards and averaging just under 4 yards per carry. Their leading receiver is another rookie A.J. Green, who has 4 TD’s and is averaging 15.8 yards per catch. Coming off a bye week, they travel to Seattle, which is a tough place to play and weather could be a problem this weekend. The Seahawk defense against the run is as good as anyone in the league. Seattle’s biggest problem is putting up enough points to score with their opponents. Charlie Whitehurst should get the start again this week. Marshawn Lynch may not play this week, so Leon Washington may get the snaps at RB. Personally, I hate this game because I like Cincy, but Seattle can pull off a good effort from time to time. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.

PHILLY (2-4) -3 OVER DALLAS (3-3) (48½)

This is the game which will determine, in my opinion, one of the two frontrunners for the NFC East this season. The Skins with all their injuries and continued struggle with the offense is going nowhere. The Giants are probably going to be there late in the season. The Cowboys are probably the better team here, but in Philly, the Eagles HAVE to win. They have no choice. Going 2-5 pretty would mean they would need to finish 7-2. The Eagles get Trent Cole back this week. Vick as usual is the difference AND the wild card for the Eagles. The Eagle secondary MUST play better than they have. RB DeMarco Murray is coming off a record setting 254 yard performance last week. They’ll need he and Tanard Choice to come up with big plays and keep drives alive in this one. Jason Witten for years has OWNED the Eagles in their games. There will be some pressure coming from both defensive fronts on the opposing QB’s. The Cowboys have 17 sacks, the Eagles have 18. This game will be a lot of fun to watch, but maybe not to play. The Eagles are undefeated (12-0) coming off bye weeks with Andy Reid as their head coach. That probably means something, but I still don’t like them enough to take them minus the points against a Dallas team that plays well on the road. This is going to be one hell of a game to watch on TV. IM TAKING OVER 50 ½ POINTS FOR A SMALL PLAY.

KANSAS CITY (3-3) +3 OVER SAN DIEGO (4-2) (44 ½)

I’ve had the Chargers pegged all year. They’re not that good and if there’s a way for them to lose, they’ll find it. Todd Haley somehow after starting the season 0-3 and looking HORRIBLE in doing so, have fought back to win three in a row and are in the hunt for another AFC West title possibly. In the game earlier this season in San Diego, they almost came away with a win in San Diego, losing 20-17. Haley should have the Chiefs ready for this one. Their defense has rebounded from losing some key players. Dwayne Bowe is a FORCE at wide out, being one of the strongest receivers in the league. He’s caught 29 passes and 4 for touchdowns and a 17.1 yard average per catch. Steve Breaston, formerly from Arizona, is their number 2. Matt Cassel is a very capable quarterback and maybe in this game has more weapons than opposing QB Phillip Rivers who is having more problems so far this year than he has in his entire career. Rivers has thrown 7 TD’s and has 9 picks already this season. Very un-San Diego and Phillip Rivers-like. For Kansas City, youngsters Jackie Battle and Derrick McCluster have ignited the running game along with veteran Thomas Jones to give support to Cassel and the offense. The bye week seemed to work well for the Chiefs because they came away with a 28-0 win against a formidable Oakland Raider team in Oakland. Michael Tolbert and Malcom Floyd may not play again for the Chargers. That could hurt. I’M TAKING THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS AT ARROWHEAD FOR 4 STARS.

SUMMARY OF PICKS

HOUSTON -9 ½ OVER JACKSONVILLE 4
CAROLINA-MINNY OVER 47 4
BUFFALO -4 ½ OVER WASHINGTON 5
BUFFALO-WASHINGTON OVER 45 ½ 5
DENVER +3 OVER DETROIT 3
PITTSBURGH-PATS OVER 52 ½ 5
SAN FRANCISCO -9 OVER CLEVELAND 4
DALLAS-PHILLY OVER 48½ 5
KANSAS CITY +3 OVER SAN DIEGO 4