Plays for Week 7

WASHINGTON (3-2 ) +2 AT CAROLINA (1-5) (43 ½)

Both of these teams are coming off loses and both need a win in the worst way this week. After a horrific game throwing the football, Rex Grossman is sitting down and John Beck is starting at QB for the Redskins this week. Beck was almost the favorite in the preseason only to lose the QB competition at the end of the preseason after having a bad game in the last game. Beck gives the Skins a better arm, more athleticism, but virtually NO experience. He hasn’t played since 2006 when he was a 2nd round draft choice out of BYU. People that actually SAW him play said he is good, so they have THAT going for them. He couldn’t pick a better time or team to start against because the Panthers pass defense has been almost non-existent. The Redskins had three major injuries to their offensive line last week (including Chris Cooley) and it may be a good time to be breaking in new linemen on the left side with a quicker QB in Beck this week. Their two backup OLinemen have NEVER taken an NFL snap during a game. Only Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady have thrown for more yardage than rookie Cam Newton of Carolina. He has thrown for 7 TD’s and rushed for another 6. He has resurrected the career of Steve Smith. The Skins play pretty good pass defense and have 17 sacks. They can pressure the QB without blitzing usually, so Carolina is going to have to establish the run to be successful throwing the ball. Last week, Mike Vick took off a few times and made a big difference in the game. Cam Newton can maybe do the same. Inside the red zone the Skins will have to “spy” Newton because he’s their best chance so far this year of scoring. The problem with that is that Newton is bigger than Skins linebackers. I have the Redskins ranked OK and the Panthers ranked OK—but they are at home. I’m going to pass on this game because it might take the Redskins new QB a game or two to get his game legs underneath him. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME AND THE TOTAL AND PRAY FOR THE SKINS! If you held a gun to my head, I take the Panthers.

CLEVELAND (2-3) -3 OVER SEATTLE (2-3) (41)

To say this game sucks is an understatement. The only reason I even care about it at all is because I listen to Kiley and Booms in Cleveland every morning and there it’s a soap opera with Holmgren, Shurmur, McCoy, and Peyton Hillis as the stars. After losing their first two games of the season against San Francisco and Pittsburgh, Seattle has won 2 out of 3 and almost 3 in a row before the bye week. They’re not sure if their starting QB Tavaris Jackson will be ready to play on Sunday, but they sure hope so. If not, capable backup Charlie Whitehurst will fill in again. Seattle has been somewhat of a surprise so far. They went into New York a little over a week ago and beat the Giants in their place. (I predicted that) That means they can travel. Now they go into Cleveland where there are many problems. Evidently, Peyton Hillis is dinged up with a hamstring pull but played a few snaps this past weekend. Then he was pulled from the game and depending on who you listen to, it was a coaches’ decision or he was injured. Cleveland QB Colt McCoy isn’t doing terrible, but he has no real arm strength and really, besides Josh Cribbs, has no downfield threat to open up the passing game. They’re averaging 3.3 yards per carry on the ground and just 9.9 yards per catch. That’s the lowest in the entire league. The Browns go on the road after this weekend to San Francisco and Houston and probably will be huge underdogs in both cities, so this week’s game is one they absolutely need to win. The Seahawks are EXTREMELY hard to run against so I figure Cleveland will probably come out throwing, and hopefully Hillis will be able to play. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME JUST BECAUSE IT’S SUCH A TOSSUP. I HAVE BOTH TEAMS RATED AS OK–. The winner will still have a shot this year for the playoffs. The loser, not so much. PASS.

DETROIT (5-1) -3 ½ OVER ATLANTA (3-3) (43 ½)

Detroit is coming off an emotional loss at home to San Francisco and the “hard handshake” game. Jim Harbaugh is a freak for sure, and evidently nobody told Jim Schwartz about it before the game. Detroit needs to get rolling asap this week against an Atlanta team that really has struggled compared to last year when they were 13-3 and hosted the first playoff game. I like Detroit here but the more I look at the game and their team right now, the more I might take a powder on this one. They’re for real and they have some playmakers on their team. Atlanta does too, but they’ve struggled so far this year. Detroit QB Matt Stafford so far has a QB rating of 98.7 with 15 TD’s and only 4 interceptions. They’ve struggled most of the season so far running the football and Javid Best, their best RB is out with a concussion this week. A trade for Ronnie Brown was nixed when the Detroit running back was found to have a brain tumor. Calvin Johnson has 9 TD’s so far this season leading the league and is maybe the best receiver in the league. He almost ALWAYS is double-teamed and when he’s not, Stafford just throws it up for him and he brings it down. I look for Atlanta to take him out of the game and make the Lions run the football more. Atlanta’s QB, Matt Ryan is struggling compared to last year and even though they won last week against Carolina, he’s still not really gotten comfortable this year in the pocket. The Falcons are one of the most penalized teams in the league and last year they were the least penalized. Michael Turner got the ball 27 times and ran for 139 yards last week so they look to be figuring something out on their offense. The Lions have given up 777 yards from scrimmage in 6 games so far this season and I look for the Falcons to make their weak run defense work extra hard with Michael Turner running it right down their throat. That will open up the throwing lanes for Matt Ryan to throw to Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. Julio Jones is still out. The home crowd in Detroit will be loud and it will be hard for the Falcons to make changes at the line of scrimmage. A lot of early money has been bet on Atlanta, probably because of the injury to Best, but I think that Detrot has something to prove here. They need to win at home to bounce back after that heartbreaking loss last week. I HAVE DETROIT RATED AS A GOOD TEAM AND THE FALCONS RATED AS JUST AN OK TEAM. The Falcons are on the road and Detroit should cover. HOWEVER, I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE IT FEELS LIKE A BIT OF A TRAP. NFL SMELLS THAT WAY SOMETIMES.

MIAMI (0-5) -1 OVER DENVER (1-4) (41½)

Wow, and I thought that the Cleveland-Seattle game sucked. I was wrong. Two teams that at one time USED to be two of the best teams in the league. Now they have a combined 1-9 record. But there’s a bonus here this weekend. TIM TEBOW IS PLAYING. TIM TEBOW IS PLAYING. TIME TEBOW IS PLAYING. Get the picture. This kid could run for president if he was 35 years old and get elected. He gives new meaning to the words “All American boy”. Hell, he’s a virgin still I think! Anyway, after struggling in their first 4 plus games, TIM TEBOW came in two weeks ago and almost pulled out a victory against the San Diego Chargers. Now he returns to the state of Florida, where he is probably the one person in the state that EVERYONE can recognize. He was more popular than anyone AND he was a three or four time All-American QB at the University of Florida. I’m betting that this game will be a true sellout, something that rarely happens where the Dolphins play anymore. From what I understand, they’re honoring the University of Florida National Champions from 2 years ago before the game. Wow! Talk about a PR nightmare for the Dolphins. At least they’ll sell their seats for the game! Tony Sparano is 0-5 and about to be fired soon. Denver matches up well with the lowly Dolphins. Miami historically hasn’t played well at home anyway, and now that the entire stadium is going to be cheering for TIM TEBOW from start to finish, I don’t see any way they can keep from being beaten and humiliated on Sunday. The Dolphins give up a 103.9 QB rating average and the Broncos give up a 106.5 rating. Matt Moore, unfortunately for the Dolphins, has a 52.8 rating. Tebow, in his short, stint as a QB, has a 101.7 rating. I’M PLAYING TWO PLAYS HERE. I’M TAKING DENVER PLUS OR MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. I’M TAKING THE OVER FOR 5 STARS BECAUSE NEITHER PASS DEFENSE IS ANY GOOD AT ALL. When the Miami linebackers drop into pass coverage or the Dolphins bring in their nickel defense, they’ll have to tackle TIM TEBOW!! That won’t be easy.

SAN DIEGO (4-1) -1 AT JETS (3-3) (43 ½ )

I’m not really sure how the spread got so inflated on the Chargers here. I guess finally people started listening to me and figuring it out that the Jets weren’t that good after all. Did Chuck Noll suddenly become head coach of the Chargers? Anyway, I like it this way. What I don’t like is Rex coming out saying this week that if he had gotten the job in San Diego when he interviewed a few years ago, he’s have a couple of Super Bowl rings by now. Who knows? Maybe he would, but I doubt it. Norv came back with some stupid statement about Ryan not having the rings he GUARANTEED the last couple of years, but HEY NORV..AT LEAST HE MADE IT TO THE PLAYOFFS!! The Chargers have started with a 4-1 record off the bat this year and that is something they aren’t used to doing under Norv. Their wins have come against teams with a combined record so far this season of 4-13, so let’s not get too excited. When they played a good team (New England), they lost by two touchdowns. Phillip Rivers has been struggling this year without his usual cast of pro bowl receivers although injuries and holdouts have slowed them down a bit. In 5 games he’s been sacked 13 times which is a lot for him. Ryan Matthews has improved and is averaging 4.9 yards a carry. His leading receiver is a running back. Rivers has thrown 6 TD’s and 7 picks which isn’t very Phillip Rivers like. They have found a free agent place kicker who has hit everything he’s tried, Nick Novak over the University of Maryland. The Redskins had him but like most of their good players, they cut him. On the other side of the ball, the Jets are struggling on offense. They’re working on a short week having won big at home on Monday night against a winless Miami. They didn’t look so bad in that game, but it was Miami. QB Mark Sanchez has struggled at times but looked much better the other night as he got more time to throw. The Jets are only averaging 3.3 yards per carry but they’ve had some injuries to their OL. I’m pretty sure that LaDanian Tomlinson will be up for this game against his former team that gave up on him. The Jets have played much better teams so far this season having gone up against the likes of Dallas, Oakland, Baltimore, and New England. They played New England much tougher than the Chargers did. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE JETS AT HOME AGAINST A TEAM THAT’S TRAVELING ACROSS COUNTRY AND COACHED BY NORV TURNER. TAKE OR GIVE THE POINTS BUT MAKE SURE YOU TAKE THE JETS FOR 4 STARS. I could be wrong but this game is HUGE for Jets. Not so much for overrated Chargers.

CHICAGO (3-3) -1 OVER TAMPA BAY (4-2) (41)

This game is being played in London at Wembley Stadium, where the London Monarchs won the World League of American Football Title in really it’s only good year ever, it’s first. I’ve called this game before but I can’t really remember a closer toss up to call ever overseas than this one. This game could come down to anything. Food poisoning. How good of a bed are you sleeping in? Who stays out the longest? Who brings their wives with them? Who doesn’t bring their wives with them? All kinds of things. Plane delays. Weather. Everything. I’M GONG TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE EVEN IF IT WAS PLAYED HERE IN THE STATES, IT WOULD PROBABLY BE TOO CLOSE TO CALL. PASS. I still can’t figure out why we send one game over there every year. What a waste of time for the two teams.
TENNESSEE (3-2) -3 OVER HOUSTON (3-3) (44 ½) – Tennessee is coming off the bye week and should be ready to give all they need to beat a “beat up” Houston team who is playing without their two best players. Matt Hasselbeck has proven already to be the leader the Titans needed for their offense. Chris Johnson should be ready after the two week break to give them the kind of running game they need from him finally. Matt Shaub of Houston had several “check ups” this week to see if he was even ready to play on Sunday. From what I hear, he’s going to start, but he’s definitely not 100%. After losing opening day to a pretty lousy Jacksonville team, Tennessee has righted their ship and immediately beat the Ravens, who beat the Texans last week by almost the same score. The Texans still have their two best players out so I’M TAKING THE TITANS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS. I think Houston will struggle AGAIN, even with the Colts out of the picture, to make the playoffs. They are the favorite, but they need to get healthy and they need to play better. The three decent teams they’ve played so far this season beat them. Some things change and some things stay the same. Kubiak’s coaching staff seems to have stayed the same. TITANS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

PITTSBURGH (4-2) -4 OVER ARIZONA (1-4) (43 ½ )

The Steelers seem to be improving even though they’ve played all season long with a patchwork offensive line. Injuries decimated their line and several members of their receiving corps have been dinged up. Ben has practiced in a walking boot from time to time so he’s not 100%. He’s toughed it out pretty well this year and seems to be getting healthier. The Cardinals have struggled losing 4 in a row since winning opening day against the Carolina Panthers in Cam Newton’s opener. Their running game has been OK with Beanie Wells, but they’ve been inconsistent. Larry Fitzgerald may very well be the best receiver in the league but there’s really not much else there to take away double teams. TE Todd Heap only has 13 receptions in 5 games but he’s supposed to play. Fitzgerald only has 2 TD’s. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt is patient, but it must be getting frustrating for him. They go this week against his former team he and Russ Grimm coached for several years and they’ll do all they can to play their best game of the season, but can they?? Pittsburgh last week jumped out on top of the Jaguars, then didn’t score in the second half and barely held on to beat a pretty lousy Jacksonville team. I’m pretty sure that the Steelers will win here since they usually do when they travel to Arizona. LOTS OF RETIRED STEELER FANS IN ARIZONA! HOWEVER, I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME SINCE THE HOME DOGS REALLY DO NEED THE GAME IN THE WORST WAY!
OAKLAND (4-2) -4 OVER KANSAS CITY (2-3) (40 ½ ) – Jason Campbell is out for at least two months so the Raiders made a trade for Carson Palmer this past week. Kyle Boller is getting the start because the 800 page playbook of Al Saunders was a big much for Palmer to absorb in one week. I’m not sure if this is the right thing to do, but evidently Palmer is in shape, has been throwing all year long, and the sooner they get him in there the better. The Raiders sport maybe the best running back in the league so far this year, Darren McFadden, who has 610 yards so far and is a target also out of the backfield. The Raiders have only lost to Buffalo and New England and have won the games they can and should win so far. Their special teams and especially kicking teams showcasing Jacoby Ford and punter Shane Lechler has been impressive. Hue Jackson has these Raiders playing well and they are dealing with the loss of their leader, Al Davis, who passed away a week ago. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have struggled most of the season, but after looking absolutely HORRIBLE the first two games of the season and losing three of their best players for the season, they’ve played San Diego very tough, and won their last two games against two non-teams, Minnesota and Indy. They are coming off a bye week and should be healthier than they’ve been all season long. They are getting virtually no pass rush to speak of but are pretty strong on defense against the run. If they’re smart, they’ll stack the box with 8 or 9 players and force Boller to throw the football in order to move it. The Chiefs also have to get their running game going this week, so Matt Cassel can throw to his group of receivers and move the football consistently. I’M PASSING ON THIS GAME BECAUSE NOBODY REALLY KNOWS WHAT THE OAKLAND OFFENSE WILL LOOK LIKE.

DALLAS (2-3) -13 OVER ST. LOUIS (0-5) (43)

Dallas is by far one of the best 2-3 teams in the history of the NFL. They have beaten two pretty good teams in Washington and San Francisco. They BARELY lost to the Jets, Detroit, and New England on the last series’ of the game. They seriously could be 5-0. They could also be 0-5. What kind of excitement is this? Torture! Just like the San Francisco Baseball Giants!! I look at this week’s game as an opportunity for them (if they don’t let up) to DESTROY a weak and struggling Rams team that virtually have nothing on the offensive side of the ball except Steven Jackson who is averaging just over 4 yards a carry except for his first carry of the season. He is 100% now and could make a difference in the game, but I look for the Cowboys to take care of business this week. Felix Jones is out this week but DeMarco Murray and Tashard Choice will be fine when asked to run the ball or catch it out of the backfield. The Rams do NOT have a good defense. They’ve also played a very tough schedule so far with Philly, Washington, and the Giants from the East, and Baltimore and Green Bay, arguably the two best teams in the NFL. The Cowboys will not be easy either. It looks like even though he’s not 100% Sam Bradford will get the start for the Rams. He’s been the unfortunate recipient of the lousy pass blocking of the Rams that has yielded 22 sacks so far. He’s pretty banged up and probably getting a big antsy in the pocket. Personally, I’d just give Steven Jackson the ball 35 times and go from there. I look for this to happen this week with the Rams game plan. There’s nobody to throw to anyway even though they just acquired Brandon Lloyd from Denver . They have thrown 3 TD passes in 5 games. Their offense is averaging just over 8 points per game. I’m not going out on a limb to say THAT IS PATHETIC. They either need to hire a new GM or a new head coach, or BOTH. I’M TAKING THE DALLAS COWBOYS MINUS THE HUGE NUMBER FOR 4 STARS. I LOVE THIS GAME.

GREEN BAY (6-0) -9 ½ OVER MINNESOTA (1-5) (46 ½)

The Packers right now are the best team in the NFL. They haven’t lost much if anything from their Super Bowl Championship team. Their OL has been tested, but they’ve replaced injured players. They’re receivers have done a good job. Their quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, is the best QB in the league right now and barring injury, should lead his team deep into the playoffs again this season. They’ve struggled running the football at times but their downfield and intermediate passing game has provided them with all the offense the need so far. They’re defense is solid also giving up only 2 rushing TD’s so far and a 4.1 average yards per rush. They’ve given up 10 TD passes so far but have 11 picks for a defense 81.7 quarterback rating given up. The Vikings, on the other hand, have fallen a long way from their Brett Favre (speaking of Green Bay) led teams of just a couple of years ago. They still have Adrian Petersen, who is as solid of a running back as they come and this week a rookie QB will be handing the ball off to him probably 25-30 times. Christian Ponder was drafted out of Florida State and in my opinion, he is a very athletic, talented kid who should eventually turn into a decent NFL QB. However, starting his first game of his career against a Dom Capers coached World Championship defense isn’t the best of situations. But it’s probably better than having Donovan McNabb get sacked a half dozen times and throw 4 picks. Capers is going to stack the box with 8 or 9 players, constantly moving and changing looks to shut down Adrian Petersen and make the rookie throw the ball. When everyone’s covered, this kid can run the football, something that McNabb couldn’t really do anymore. Rodgers has a 122.5 QB rating which is absolutely sick. The Vikings defensive backfield is OK, but they’re no match for Rodgers and his guys. I’M TAKING THE PACKERS MINUS THE 9 POINTS INDOORS (Rodgers LOVES domes) to beat up a rookie lead Viking team. It’s not going to get better very quickly in Minnesota. Good luck Vikings!

NEW ORLEANS (4-2) – 13 ½ OVER INDIANAPOLIS (0-6) (48)

The Peytonless Colts haven’t lost by 14 points since the first game of the season this year, but if there was a time they could go down quick and hard it’s here against the Saints who lost a tough one last week in Tampa. The Colts SUCK! I don’t mean that in a bad way, just a factual way. They rate on the BHS rating system as one of the truly SUCK teams in the NFL so far this season. Joseph Addai is out for the game. They’ll have to rely on Donald Brown to get those tough yards against Gregg Williams’ defense. Curtis Painter IS throwing for a 93 QB rating but so far no wins. Drew Brees is concerned with his large number of picks and knowing him as I do (I don’t really know him personally), he’ll make changes and come out with a barrage of short and long range passes and put some real points up on the scoreboard early in the game. Sean Payton broke his leg and injured his knee last week and is up in the press box this week to call the game. Personally, I think that had a lot to do with them losing last week. Not only was it a huge diversion that probably caused his coaches and his players to worry about his health, but it probably freaking bothered him too. He’ll be ready this week but I really DON’T like the 14 points and I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME JUST BECAUSE IT IS TOO MANY DAMN POINTS. I DO LIKE THE OVER 48 POINTS HOWEVER! TAKE THE OVER 48 POINTS FOR 5 STARS.

BALTIMORE (4-1) -8 OVER JACKSONVILLE (1-5) (39)

The Ravens area a GOOD team ranked 2nd in the league in my power standings. The Jaguars have a rookie QB in Blaine Gabbert and I have them rated as a SUCK team. Even though they’re at home, there really isn’t much home field advantage to playing there in Jacksonville, otherwise known as South Georgia. They won their first game of the season by 2 points at home and have since lost 5 games in a row. The Jaguars have Maurice Jones-Drew as their big time offensive weapon and he is a bit of a freak. However, even MJD can’t do it all by himself. The Ravens defense has the ability to take away pretty much what they want with an opposing offense. I’m guessing they’re going to make Gabbert throw the ball by stacking the line of scrimmage with their nasty, tough defensive front 8 or 9 players. The Ravens are only giving up 3.3 yards per carry and a meazley 65.9 QB rating AVERAGE. That’s some good defense there. Gabbert has a 71.1 QB rating and that isn’t going to stand up too much against the Ravens pass rush. Ray Rice should be able to find some holes in a fairly tough front 7 for Jacksonville and look for Joe Flacco to open up downfield with some big gains early in the game. I’m going to take the Ravens MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS IN THIS MATCHUP.

SUMMARY

DENVER +1 OVER MIAMI 5 OVER 44 ½
DENVER-MIAMI 5
JETS +2 OVER SAN DIEGO 4 OVER 48
INDY-NEW ORLEANS 5
TENNESSEE -3 OVER HOUSTON 4
DALLAS -13 OVER ST. LOUIS 5
GREEN BAY -9 OVER MINNY 5
BALTIMORE -8 OVER JAX 4

Plays for Week 6

DETROIT -4 OVER SAN FRANCISCO (46)

Two teams going in the right direction. Last year at this time both teams were a combined 1-9. This year just the opposite 9-1. Detroit is undefeated and having won 9 games in a row going back to last season. San Francisco is the favorite now to win the weak NFC West with a 4-1 record and undefeated on the road. Two great coaches who will be around for a long time. Jim Schwartz has Detroit so confident they should win 11 games to make the playoffs as a wild card. NOBODY in the North is going to stay with Green Bay, but if anyone can, it’s the Lions. If Nick Fairley is healthy, nobody is going to be able to deal with the front defensive line of Detroit. Matt Stafford is doing a good job of putting points on the board for the offense. Jim Harbaugh has confidence in Alex Smith and it’s showing. His QB rating is 100 now and they can run and throw the ball and control the clock. Against a decent defense in Tampa last week, the 49ers rushed for 213 yards. Their defense after the first five games leads the NFL. Ford Field creates some problems for visitors with its noise level but if anyone can stay with the Lions right now it’s the 49ers. I’m going to pass on this game even though you have to like the LIONS here. San Francisco is coming off a huge home win. PASS ON THIS GAME..TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

GREEN BAY -14 OVER ST. LOUIS (47 ½ )

The Packers are the best team in the league. St. Louis may be the worst team in the league. St. Louis can’t cover anyone in their secondary. Against the BEST teams in football, Green Bay can move the ball in the air and on the ground. However, Steven Jackson is finally HEALTHY after pulling a quad on his first touch of the season, a long run for a TD opening day. Why waste too much time breaking down this game. It would be easy to leave the game alone with the 14 points. However, TAKE GREEN BAY MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. I’D BE SURPRISED IF THE PACKERS DON’T COME OUT AND PUT A 50 BURGER ON THE RAMS AT HOME. TAKE THE PACKERS FOR 5 STARS MINUS THE HUGE AMOUNT OF POINTS. Leave the total alone. It’s ridiculous that the Packers receivers are bitching about not getting enough passes thrown at them. I can see Green Bay taking the Rams for granted here, but I’m giving the points anyway.

ATLANTA – 3 ½ OVER CAROLINA (50 ½ )

Two teams going in different directions. Carolina with Cam Newton leading their offense are a team in transition but can score on offense in the air and on the ground. Their defense is killing them. Their linebacking corps doesn’t tackle very well and their secondary is pretty bad. They are giving up a 99.6 QB rating and 4.9 yards per carry. Atlanta is struggling with a 2-3 record. This game could bite them in the ass if they don’t figure out a way to outscore the Panthers. The Falcons should be able to move the ball on the Panthers defense and the Panthers will may have some trouble running the football against the Falcons. The Saints controlled the clock and threw the ball with efficiency against the Panthers last week, even though the Carolina rushed for 162 yards. If the Panthers convert on a 3rd and 2 from near midfield in the 4th quarter with the lead, the game is probably over. They just haven’t figured out how to put teams away yet. Ron Rivera has the Panthers close to where they want to be. If the Falcons show any signs of not being ready for this game, they could lose it and quick. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME. THE OVER WITH GOOD WEATHER IS A MILD PLAY.

CINCINNATI -6 ½ OVER INDY (40 ½ )

The Bengals came back last week to beat a struggling Jacksonville team on the road 30-20. Andy Dalton is doing a good job in his rookie year at QB. Curtis Painter will get the start for Indy and is improving every game. I’m not sure if Indy is ready to go into Cincy and beat the Bengals at this point in the season. They may NEVER win a game this season. If they don’t, I know a good Stanford quarterback that would look good in royal and blue!! Andrew Luck baby!! Unless the Bengals completely let down here, they should come out with a W. However, I feel that the Colts will stay with the Bengals and possibly make this a close game. I’m going to PASS ON THIS GAME even though the Cincinnati defense is much better than the Colts offense. PASS.

GIANTS -3 ½ OVER BUFFALO (50)

We were all over the fact that the Giants at home are not as good as they are on the road. Now, the upstart and talented Buffalo Bills come to the Meadowlands and will be ready for whatever the Giants have in the tank for them. Buffalo’s head coach Chan Gailey has been in New York a few times and had some luck winning games there. I knew that Eli Manning would be able to throw the ball against the Seahawks and did. He threw for 420 yards, but he had 3 horrible picks to come back and bite him in the ass. They were NOT able to run the ball against the Seahawks and Brandon Jacobs was out for the game. Philly had almost 500 total yards but made so many mistakes they had no chance to win the game. Having said that, the Giants should be able to score some points. If they don’t turn the ball over, they should beat the Bills. However, the only thing I’m sure of is that both offenses will be successful. I’M TAKING THE OVER 50 POINTS FOR 5 STARS. I’M PASSING ON THE STRAIGHT PLAY. It should be a great game to watch especially if you’re a Bills fan. Shawne Merriman is OUT for the game, not a good thing for the Bills.

PITTSBURGH -12 ½ OVER JACKSONVILLE (40)

The Steelers came up big at home this past week and may have turned their season around temporarily. Luckily for them, the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars are coming to town and besides Maurice Jones-Drew have no real football players to speak of. The Jags should be able to run the ball against the Steelers and have some success, but I don’t see Blaine Gabbert being able to figure out Pittsburgh’s defense and what they’ll throw at him for the entire game. The Steelers had a good game against a good Titans defense and moved the ball both on the ground and in the air and completely dominated Tennessee. This is a lot of points to give for a team that has problems on the defensive side of the ball, but things aren’t going that well with Jacksonville right now. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS.

WASHINGTON + 3 OVER PHILLY (47)

The Redskins are coming off a bye week and everyone should be healthy. The Eagles are coming off another disheartening loss in Buffalo against the Bills and are a little banged up. The Skins will be able to run and throw the ball against the Philly defense who have trouble covering and tackling. Mike Vick rushed for 90 yards and threw for 315 yards but he was picked off 4 times. Whatever is happening with their offense, it’s not all his fault. Defensively, they are giving up the big play which is not good. This is a GREAT spot for the Eagles to make the short ride down to D.C. and beat the Skins which they’ve done plenty in recent years. HOWEVER, this is not your usual Washington Redskins team. These guys believe they are good. They are playing well on both sides of the ball and if they don’t turn the ball over, they should be able to win this game. There will be so much money bet on the Eagles this week that the Skins may be the play here. As a matter of fact, the line has moved SO MUCH in the favor of the Eagles, that I’d be an idiot to not take the Skins here. First of all, they are the better team AND they are at home, AND their defense can tackle, unlike the Eagles defense. Just because the Eagles NEED to win isn’t a good enough reason to play them. 75% of the betting public has money on Philly and it’s because the NEED the game more. Bull Shit. Mike Vick or no Mike Vick, I see the Skins winning a close, high scoring game at Fed Ex Field this week to stay in the lead in the NFL East and put the Eagles where they belong….at the bottom. TAKE THE SKINS AND THE POINTS AND THE OVER FOR 4 STARS.

BALTIMORE -7 OVER HOUSTON (45)

The Texans had a chance to improve their record to 4-1 this past weekend but blew some good chances to win against the Oakland Raiders, possibly motivated by the passing of Al Davis. Whatever the reason, Houston blew a great chance to go to the lead of their division. Houston outgained the Raiders 473-278 but two big picks hurt them. The Texans match up well with the Ravens secondary with their passing game and Arian Foster will give their front 7 plenty to worry about running the football and catching the ball out of the backfield. This could be a great game. However, I think that Matt Shaub is going to struggle finding a receiver with Andre Johnson out of the game and dealing with the Ravens blitzing schemes. They historically have given Schaub trouble. The last running back to rush for over 100 yards against the Ravens was Arian Foster last season. Both teams are quick starters scoring many of their points in the first quarter. This coUld tell a big story of who wins and covers in this game. I’m taking the RAVENS minus the 7 points for 4 stars. They have shown at home they are very good this season and the Texans are probably still reeling from the big loss at home last week to the Raiders. BALTIMORE MINUS THE 7 FOR 4 STARS.

OAKLAND -6 ½ OVER CLEVELAND (44 ½ )

After going to Houston and beating the Texans at their place, now we’ll see if Oakland is still motivated enough to win in the Black Hole against a Browns team that just isn’t very good at all. Colt McCoy leads the offense for the Browns and has Peyton Hillis coming off an illness who can run the ball against almost anyone. However, I don’t see the Browns staying with the Raiders here. The Raiders should be able to move the football against a very average Browns defense. TAKE THE RAIDERS HERE MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

DALLAS +6 ½ AT NEW ENGLAND (55 ½ )

Anyone who knows me knows that I hate the Dallas Cowboys. Even so,I find it hard to believe that this won’t be the best game of the weekend. Dallas has a lot of talent especially on the offensive side of the ball. New England seems to be able to outscore anyone in the league. The Pats have won 19 games in a row at home. Tom Brady has thrown for over 300 yards 13 games in a row and the last game that he didn’t throw for 300 yards was against the Cleveland Browns and Rob Ryan was the DC that game for Cleveland. Dallas is one of those teams that seems to relax better on the road. Too much pressure and not enough of a home field advantage anymore in the spaceship they plan in might be the reason. This game will probably going to come down to turnovers and who has the ball last. I like Dallas to cover the spread here on the road. Romo should get plenty of time to throw, although I’m sure that’s something Belechick is working on as we speak. Brady should be able to throw against the Dallas defense but their run defense is tough. Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis has looked very good as of late running the ball for New England, like last week against the Jets, but he somehow injured his toe and is questionable. I just don’t think the Cowboys will have an answer for all of the receiving weapons that the Pats will throw at them. The Cowboys have only picked off only 4 passes all year. The Pats have picked off 7. The turnover battle will have EVERYTHING to do with who wins. Romo will probably turn the ball over more than Brady. That will be the difference in a high scoring affair. TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS AND THE OVER 55 POINTS FOR 5 STARS EACH. ONE HELL OF A FUN GAME TO WATCH FOR SURE. DALLAS NEEDS THE WIN BADLY.

TAMPA BAY +6 OVER NEW ORLEANS (49 ½)

Last week the Saints were lucky to win against the Carolina Panthers. They can score on offense behind Brees and Peyton calling the plays but they struggle against the run defensively. The problem this week is LeGarrette Blount’s OUT for this week’s game for Tampa Bay. That will hurt the Bucs terribly. Not having the physical play of Blount makes it even HARDER for Josh Freeman to do any harm with his already weak passing game. The Bucs, on the other hand, give up an AVERAGE of 99.9 QB rating so far this season which doesn’t bode well going up against Brees this week. The last two years the Saints have crushed the Bucs at home by a combined score of 69-13. Breen is thrown for 6 touchdowns and just one interception at Raymond James Stadium the past two years. Tampa needs the game badly but they’re too banged up and facing a team that is going to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the South NFC division. TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

MINNESOTA +2 ½ AT CHICAGO (41 ½)

The Vikings seem to be solving some of their problems with a big win at home last week against the punchless Arizona Cardinals. The Vikings can and will run almost at will against the Bears who have given up a whopping 5.7 yards per carry so far this season. The Vikings only give up 3.3 yards per carry on defense and the defensive secondary isn’t bad. Chicago is horrible so far. Their defense gives up big play after big play. The Vikings front 7 has 16 sacks so far this season and the Bears have had Cutler sacked a league leading 18 times. After going to Detroit on Monday and getting thrashed by the Lions defense, and also being on a short week, I lookm for the Bears to get beat by a Viking team that has played everyone tough so far this season, only to lose late in the games. TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE 3 FOR 4 STARS. They are the better team here and historically haven’t done well at Soldier Field but this isn’t the MONSTERS OF THE MIDWAY that we’re used to seeing.

JETS -6 ½ AT MIAMI (42 ½)

Hey Tony Sparano is 3-0 lifetime against New York teams!! Maybe his last name IS SOPRANO. However, the Jets have lost three in a row and SHOULD have lost their opener which would have made them 1-4 at this point in the season. Matt Moore is the 16th QB to start for the Dolphins since 2000. According to Rex, the Jets are going to still win the Super Bowl. I…don’t think so. Their defense is decent still, but their offense is pretty soft. They can’t run the ball with any success and their passing game will suck as long as Sanchez is their leader. But here’s the good news. THEY PLAY THE DOLPHINS THIS WEEKEND!! The Dolphins have no intent on screwing up their chances of getting the first pick in next year’s draft and taking Andrew Luck, who will become their “franchise” quarterback. They are coming off a bye week and should be pretty healthy for a change BUT I don’t see that happening on Monday night in New York. Even Sanchez should be able to move the football through the air against the porous Dolphin defensive backfield. They have given up a 105.4 QB rating AVERAGE so far this season. That may make even Sanchez look good. WR Brandon Jacobs who admittedly has behavior problems has promised to come out with his “INNER BEAST” this weekend on Monday Night Football. I’m laying even money that his “INNER BEAST” has shitty hands too. TAKE THE JETS MINUS THE POINTS AGAINST ONE OF THE LEADERS IN THE ANDREW LUCK POOL FOR 4 STARS. MIAMI SUCKS. THEY REALLY SUCK.

SUMMARY

GREEN BAY -14 OVER ST. LOUIS 3 SKINS-PHILLY OVER 47 5 BALTIMORE -7 OVER HOUSTON 4 GIANTS-BUFFALO OVER 49 1/2 4 OAKLAND – 6 ½ OVER CLEVELAND 3 ATL-CAROLINA OVER 50 ½ 4 DALLAS +6 ½ OVER NEW ENGLAND 4 DALLAS-N. E. OVER 55 ½ 5 MINNY +2 ½ OVER CHICAGO 3 JETS- 6 ½ OVER MIAMI 4 NEW ORLEANS -6 ½ OVER T. BAY 3 REDSKINS +3 OVER PHILLY 3

Plays for Week 5

BUFFALO +3 OVER PHILLY (52)

I love the Vegas non-respect that the Bills seem to claim here and also the fact that there are too many Philly fans out there holding up the line. The Eagles are circling the wagons and the only team that can circle the wagons like nobody else are THE BUFFALO BILLS!  A pretty decent Bengal team came back last week and beat the Bills to give them their lone loss of the season.  This week the Bills are back home in the confines of Rich Stadium and the Bills should have enough offense to outscore an Eagles team that is having some real problems so far this year. Mike Vick still isn’t 100%.  The Eagles linebackers just aren’t doing the job and they’re even having trouble with support from safeties.  There should be plenty of scoring here and I feel that the crowd will pick the Bills defense up enough to beat Philly.  Forget that, they’re an underdog at home.  No respect.  I’m taking the OVER 50 POINTS in this game because both defenses are searching for help and not getting much.  The Eagles have lost 3 in a row and I can’t remember the last time Andy Reid has lost 4 in a row (someone look that up for me will you?) I’M TAKING BUFFALO PLUS THE POINTS AND THE OVER HERE. Everyone in the country is on Philly here and it makes NO SENSE. They’re not that good right now.

NEW ORLEANS -6 ½ OVER CAROLINA (51)

Carolina’s Cam Newton has the entire attention of the NFL and it’s fans after continuing to set records for rookie quarterbacks. Last week against the Bears in Chicago, the Panthers could and should have won that game.  They don’t have much defense to speak of so far this season but injuries have claimed their two best players for the season.  In Williams and Stewart, they have two first round draft choices in the backfield and another one taking snaps from center that just may change the way football is played in the NFL.  The Saints have had some key injuries in the past couple of weeks but since losing a nailbiter to the Packers the opening game of the year, they’ve won three in a row and their offense has looked great doing so.  However, Drew Brees has completed 20 passes or more in 24 straight NFL games, a new NFL record.  Darren Sproles, their replacement and then some, for Reggie Bush has been unbelievable and leads the NFL in all purpose yards for the season. He leads the league in 11 catches on third down also.  Nobody’s close. He also leads the team in receptions with 26 in 4 games and TE Jimmy Graham leads the receiving corps with 24 for an amazing 15.3 ypc. The key in this game is going to be which defense comes off the field more often and that’s going to be the Saints.  The Carolina defense just can’t stop the run well enough and Sean Peyton will run more than he passes if they come out in the nickel.  They should be able to beat the Panthers and Gregg Williams’ defense should be able to do just enough to Cam Newton and company to win. This game historically has been a game in which the visitor usually either wins or covers for some reason.  I’M ONLY TAKING THE OVER 52 POINTS IN THIS GAME. CHECK THE WEATHER. LAST TIME IN CAROLINA THERE WAS A MONSOON AND THE WEATHER FORECAST WAS SUNNY AND 70.

HOUSTON -5 OVER OAKLAND (48 ½)

As we speak, bettors are HAMMERING the Raiders.  The Raiders evened their record to 2-2 with a loss last week at home to New England, but they were in the game pretty much the entire way. A couple of key turnovers were the difference in the game.  In four games so far, Darren McFadden is averaging 6.2 yards per carry and has rushed for over 100 yards per game.  QB Jason Campbell has looked good so far this season and when he gets time, is getting the ball downfield to a variety of receivers.  Surprisingly so far, the defense for the Raiders has struggled.  They barely lost to the highly improved Buffalo Bills and beat the not so good Jets at home by 10.  Head Coach Hue Jackson has been just what the Raiders have needed at the helm.  He has them believing and they’re playing hard for 4 quarters, something they haven’t always done.  The Texans, in my opinion, have improved dramatically and the difference has been Wade Phillips’ defense.  Last week, they only gave up 10 points to the struggling Steelers in a big win at home, but that was something for years they just dreamed of. I like the Texans here in this game to win. The line in Vegas has moved 3 points since Wednesday and Al Davis’ death may make it move more.  Personally, I know I should leave this alone. Andre Johnson is out. However, I feel that the Texans and Matt Schaub will find more targets in their receiving corps to make up for Johnson’s absence.   I AM TAKING THE OVER 49 POINTS FOR 4 STARS this weekend because both teams are overdue to score more points this week. I also feel that the Texans are a GOOD football team. Oakland is just OK and on the road. They may be distracted but definitely will play hard. Key here is Matt Shaub vs. Jason Campbell.  I like Campbell, but he’s no Matt Shaub. Besides, if Houston covers, Vegas wins.

 INDIANAPOLIS -3 OVER KANSAS CITY (38 ½)

Indy is 0-4 and is favored by 3 points.  3 points is the home advantage minimum usually for a home team playing an NFL game.  Both of these teams, according to Vegas, are EXACTLY as bad as each other.  I disagree.  I think that the Chiefs are TOTALLY dysfunctional.  The Colts are getting better and trying harder.  I also liked the way that Curtis Painter played last week. Even though he threw a lot of incomplete passes, he threw for 2 TD’s and no INT’s.  This kid knows the offense.  The Colts are at home in a place where with a lead, their fans will be very LOUD.  KC’s Dexter McCluster is a weapon for sure.  Last week, with only 10 touches, he made a big difference.  Dwayne Bowe is one of the NFL’s best pass receivers and he’s hitting his stride.  Cassel is using Steve Breaston as his 2^nd receiver and having some success there.  After a shaky start in their first two games, the Chiefs defense has settled down and played much better the last two weeks, giving up only17 points in each game.  The Colts are amazingly averaging 4.1 yards per carry on the grond with a long run so far of just 18 yards.  Joseph Addai is an excellent runner and is good out of the backfield catching the ball also.  The Colts have played the Steelers and the Bucs tight two weeks in a row.  Even though they’re on a short work week, I like the Colts getting ready for a Chiefs team that won’t have too much to throw at them and beating them for their first win of the season.  If they don’t win this game, they might not have a chance to win for about a month because they hit the road and play Cincinnati, New Orleans, and Tennessee. I’M PASSING ON THIS GAME. INDY WILL PROBABLY WIN BUT I CAN’T BE SURE.

JACKSONVILLE PICK OVER CINCINNATI (37)

These two teams are going in opposite directions.  The Jags are a SUCK team with my rating system.  They haven’t really shown anything all season so far and they have their rookie QB Blaine Gabbert starting now.  He has a 62.9 QB rating so far.  Cincy rookie QB Andy Dalton has looked better and has a high QB rating but he also has a head coach who knows how to make a QB look bad.  The Bengals just beat the Bills at home and played well.  Their defense has performed well all season long except in Denver.  Jacksonville is averaging less than 10 points per game. Carolina’s defense held them to 10 points and the Panthers defense is not very good. Of course, that was in a monsoon, so we can throw that out.  Rookie QB Blaine Gabbert is completing les than 50% of his passes.  Rookie QB Andy Dalton of Cincinnati looks much better and has A.J. Green and TE Gresham to throw to.  He also has Cedrick Benson to hand the ball off to.  Maurice Jones-Drew of Jacksonville is averaging 5.1 yard per carry so they will try to slow the game down and keep the Bengals offense off the field.  The Benglas are 2-2 but could easily be 4-0.  I was surprised when Jack Del Rio was brought back to coach the Jags at the end of last season.  I see no way these guys win more than 4 games all year.  Bad decision by the owners of the Jags.  We have a lame duck situation in Jacksonville and it’s going to trickle down to the players and may have already. TAKE THE BENGALS HERE FOR 3 STARS.  BENGALS ARE A MUCH BETTER TEAM HERE.

 VIKINGS -3 OVER ARIZONA (45 ½)

Vikings are coming off their 4^th loss in a row against THE WORST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE, THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS.  The Chiefs are terrible and Minnesota should have been able to handle them at home. They didn’t.  If the Vikings DON’T beat the Cardinals at home this weekend, changes will be made and that will probably be Donovan McNabb giving up his starting QB position to the rookie from Florida State, Christian Ponder, who can play by the way.  The Cards should have a tough time running the football against the Vikings, meaning Kevin Kolb will be throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, Early Doucet, and Todd Heap to move the football.  The Cardinals don’t travel well, having lost already this season on the road to Washington and the lowly Seattle Seahawks.  Minnesota’s best corner Antoine Winfield is out for the game with a bad neck. This game is too close to call and so far this season, Minnesota hasn’t figured out how to play a complete game. Cincinnati is clearly the better team here, but I don’t trust the play.  PASS ON THIS DAMN GAME.

GIANTS -9 ½ OVER SEATTLE (43)

Eli Manning and the Giants have won 3 in a row.  Against the lowly Rams, they looked terrible but won by 12.  Next week they knocked Mike Vick out of the game and beat a struggling Eagles team by 13. Last week against Arizona, they came from behind and beat a struggling Cardinal team by 4.  Almost let that one get away. When the Giants are in the red zone, they score (8 out of 10 trips inside the 20).  They’ve only kicked one field goal all season long which is good AND bad. With Peyton Manning on the sidelines this season, Eli has thrown for a 105.6 QB rating, throwing 8 TD’s and only 2 INT’s.  He has been sacked 11 times though.  That needs to improve.  Defensively, the Giants defensive backfield and pass rush is giving up only a 76.7 QB rating to opposing QB’s.  Amazingly enough, the new Giants offensive line has only allowed their good running back tandem of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs to rush for 3.3 yards per carry.  Jacobs is probably out this week with a bad knee.  So is Justin Tuck again.  The thing I like about this Giants team is that it reminds me exactly of the team that won the Super Bowl.  The Seahawks will be hard to run against. That means that Eli will have to throw to score probably.  The Seahawks, I have rated as a SUCK team.  Seahawks QB Tavaris Jackson has played OK so far, but he’s not getting much help.  They have only run the ball 80 times so far this season a 3.4 yards per carry average.  Their offense has AVERAGED just 24.33 minutes in time of possession, the worst in the NFL.  Surprisingly enough, their defensive front 7 has only allowed 3.2 yards per carry on an incredibly heavy 131 carries in 4 games.  Their secondary is giving up an average of just under 70% completion average but not a whole lot of yardage.  Their defense isn’t their problem.  Their lack of offense is their problem. I look for the GIANTS here to dominate the line of scrimmage.  Bradshaw and the O-line need to dominate from the start.  That will open up Giants receivers down the field for Eli to use his talented receivers to score.  The NFC EAST is the Giants to win if they play well starting right now.  After losing their opener against the Skins, they’ve run off three wins in a row. HOWEVER, THIS IS JUST THE KIND OF GAME FOR THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS THAT THE GIANTS WILL STRUGGLE TO WIN. PASS ON THIS GAME.  THE GIANTS MAKE ME NERVOUS IN DOUBLE DIGIT FAVORITES AT HOME. SMELLS LIKE A TRAP AND THERE IS LATE MONEY ON SEATTLE!! PASS. DOUBLE PASS.

TENNESSEE +3 AT PITTSBURGH (38 ½)

These are two teams going in opposite directions.  Big Ben has a hurt foot but will start and play this week.  They have beaten two SUCK teams and lost to two GOOD teams.  The Steelers will usually give you a 100% effort so what I see is a team that isn’t as talented as in years past.  They are slower, older, and banged up some kind of bad.  To make things even worse, their heart and soul of their defense James Harrison, maybe the biggest, baddest, linebacker they’ve ever had (sorry Jack Lambert), is out. Their defense has been playing below their usual great level and are giving up 4.8 yards per carry and an 85.2 QB rating, which is decent.  The really amazing thing is that their opponents have DOUBLED their sack total and the Steelers secondary HAS NO INTERCEPTIONS SO FAR.  Steelers run defense is horrible.  Last year, Steelers run defense led the league with 62.8 yards per game.  This year, they’ve average so far 119.5. That is scary. Now Harrison is down for the year.  Tennessee, on the other hand, is improving and the transition to Mike Munchak as head coach has been smooth to say the least.  QB Matt Hasselbeck is throwing at a 104.7 QB rating clip and 128.9 in the RED ZONE, which is awesome considering he doesn’t have any real name receivers healthy after Kenny Britt went down with an injury.  All Pro Chris Johnson after signing a new contract, has started to show signs of getting in game shape and should start being a big difference for the running game.  The Titans should be able to shut down the Steelers running game, even though the Steelers are getting a couple of starting offensive linemen back this week.    The Steelers will probably have a problem with C.J. this week, which will force a lot of defensive 8 and 9 man fronts.  If this happens, look for Hasselbeck to use play action and throw down field to Washington or TE Cook. Big Ben is going to be 70 or 80% maybe and even though they’re at home, I see Tennessee coming into town and possibly pulling off an upset.  If the Steelers win here, they’ve got a shot.  If they lose, their season is over in my opinion.  I LIKE TENNESSEE HERE, BUT IT’S TOO CLOSE TO CALL.  LEAVE IT THE HELL ALONE.

TAMPA BAY +3 OVER SAN FRANCISCO (41 ½)

Who would have thought that the Bucs and 49ers would be a combined 6-2 going into week 5 this season? Not me.  However, the 49ers are in the NFC West and I’ve gone on the record and said that 7-9 would win the West this season.  If that’s true, and the 49ers can hold serve at home this weekend, they could just be 3 wins away from the playoffs. That’s if you believe ME!  Anyway, the only 49er loss was to Tony Romo and the Cowboys in overtime or they’d be 4-0.  Harbaugh is a Harbaugh and he knows how to win.  They have a long way to go, but they’re headed in the right direction. 49we NT Isaac Sopoaugo has a staph infection and may be out. He’s a stud.  Last season Raheem Morris, who I consider a great young coach, had his Bucs at 10-6 already headed in the right direction.  They lost their home opener to a very good Detroit Lions team and have won three in a row since.  They travel cross country this week and will endure a good test on both sides of the ball with the 49ers.  This is definitely a step up in class after beating Minnesota, a hurting Falcon team, and Indy.  LeGarrette Blount is a monster running back.  I’ve forgiven him for his left hook he KO’d a Boise State big mouth with back in college and was kicked out of school.  He seems to be a good kid and working hard.  The Bucs are pretty conservative on offense mostly because they have to be.  They are averaging less than 10 yards per catch which Tom Brady is almost getting per attempt.  They’re going to have to score some points to win in San Francisco this weekend.  If they can’t, look for Alex Smith to have a big day against the suspect defensive backfield of the Bucs.  The pass rush of the Buccaneers may be the key to keeping them in the game.  Alex Smith has been sacked 14 times already this season.   I also look for the 49er defense to come up strong and shut down the Tampa Bay offense by making them throw the football.  Quarterback Josh Freeman and his ability to use his legs to get first downs may be the difference in the game.  Whoever wins this game may be well on their way to a good season and possibly the playoffs. The line has moved to 3 points late. Normally, this would be a great spot for San Francisco, but these two teams are so close and Tampa Bay has shown much better on the road as of late so I’M PASSING ON THIS GAME COMPLETELY.  JUST ENJOY IT AND WATCH IT.

DENVER +3 ½ OVER SAN DIEGO (46)

May be my total play of the year this week.  Both teams can’t stop the pass. Denver’s going after an NFL record if they keep up what they’re NOT doing on defense which is covering anyone.  They’ve given up a 110.7 QB rating AVERAGE so far this season.  Sure, Champ Bailey’s been out and they’ve had their share of injuries, but damn, that sucks. I hate to ruin everyone’s day that thinks the Chargers are good, but they’re not.  I have them ranked as just OK.  They’ve beaten teams with a combined record of 1-11.  New England handled them by 14 at home. Denver is pretty damn bad though. It’s a good thing the Broncos signed Willis McGahee or they’d have NO running game at all. He’s doing a pretty good job so far but he’s just averaging 3.8 yards per carry.  Kyle Orton is hearing chants for Tebow from EVERYONE it seems even though Tebow won’t be able to help much with this offense.  Edddie Royal has been out virtually all season long so far and has caught a grand total of 4 passes.  Knowshawn Moreno has been hurt all season.  Brandon Lloyd in 4 games has 18 catches for an average of 14.6 yards per catch.  The Chargers lost their other road game so far this season and I look for a much closer game than people think.  Good thing Vegas isn’t as high on the Chargers as all the “experts” are.  I think they’re average at best.  I’d love to see Denver win this game, but I’ll just figure that Rivers and Orton will go after each other for 60 minutes and if the weather’s OK and the wind isn’t too strong, it will be a 41-38 game and I won’t care who wins.  TAKE THE OVER 46 FOR THE MORTGAGE PAYMENT I have Denver winning 4 games this season.  5 if they win this one. I have Chargers winning 7. 8 if they win this one.

NEW ENGLAND -7 ½ OVER JETS (49 ½)

This is going to be one hell of a game to watch in my opinon.  How the Jets come back after two straight road losses will tell me whether they have any chance at all in the AFC East this season.  They are beat up. No question. But they need to do a better job on the offensive side of the ball to keep their defense, which is pretty damn good, off the field.  Last week the Ravens jumped out to an early lead and were able to hold on.  The week before, the same thing happened in Oakland. Now they play a team that absolutely hates them, the New England Patriots. The Pats are still pissed about letting Buffalo come back and beat them two weeks ago.  This is NOT a good defensive team in New England.  They are putting a defense together with duck tape each week and adding players all the time.  They lost Jerod Mayo last week for the season.  They should get Albert Haynesworth back this week to help shore up the middle of the line.  If the Jets can get some balance to their attack and be able to throw the ball downfield, then this could be a very close game. They should be able to run the football.  The only team that the Jets have faced so far this year with a good passing game was the Cowboys, who had them beat early and let the Jets come back and win.  I see a lot of points being scored in this game no matter what happens.  If the Jets jump out to an early lead, they won’t be able to keep Brady and the offense from coming back.  Vice versa, the Jets only answer would be in the air, which the Pats can be vulnerable to.  I’M TAKING THE OVER 49 POINTS FOR 5 STARS THIS WEEK AND TEASING IT TO DEATH WITH A THREE TEAMER.

GREEN BAY -5 ½ AT ATLANTA (53 ½)

This is a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game in Atlanta which the Packers won 48-21 in pretty much a blowout.  I don’t see a thing changing here.  Atlanta, if anything, isn’t the team they were last year.  For whatever reason, they’ve struggled to move the football like they did last year even at home, and their defense has given up big chunks of yardage even to the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears, both teams who are not good.  The Packers are playing better than anyone in the NFL right now and Aaron Rodgers has some unbelievable QB rating of 130+ indoors.  I look for him to absolutely cut up the Atlanta defense early and the Packer defense to control the line of scrimmage and shut down most of the Falcon passing game.  That will be the key.  The pressure created on both sides of the ball rushing the passer.  The Atlanta Falcons defense has just 5 sacks in 4 games.  Not much pressure really.  The Packers, even though their numbers are down a bit this year, have 11.  Matt Ryan has been sacked 13 times to Aaron Rodgers 7.  This game will not be a very good opportunity for Atlanta to win unless they can control the ball and the agenda on the ground with their running game, which hasn’t really shown up this year. Michael Turner looks a step or two slow when he takes the ball this year.  Maybe it’s the blocking.  Look for Dom Capers and the Packers defense to make life miserable again for Ryan and the Falcons offense.  League MVP Aaron Rodgers should have another great game indoors.  TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. LEAVE THE TOTAL ALONE.  NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE AS US MUCH SCORING AS EVERYONE THINKS.

DETROIT -5 OVER CHICAGO (47 ½)

A lot of people have thought I’m crazy so far this year, releasing the Lions all the time.  Hey, I love Jim Schwartz, and I love what’s he’s doing with his team.  They have some holes here and there, but their defense is doing just enough to get them wins with their potent offense.  Matthew Stafford has a 100.3 QB rating and Javid Best is getting just enough yardage on the ground to keep opposing defenses honest.  They’re also utilizing their soon to be All Pro TE Brandon Pettigrew in the short passing game to go along with Calvin Johnson’s 8 touchdowns when it’s needed. The Bears are struggling, to say the least.  They’re playing maybe the toughest schedule so far in the entire NFL, but going to Detroit on Monday night in front of all those crazy ass fans isn’t going to help them at all.  Cutler has a hard time staying on his feet at home, let alone on the road where hearing the snap count is a problem.  He’s been sacked 15 times.  Their offensive line is terrible.  Compare that to only 5 sacks of Matthew Stafford. I have the Bears rated as a SUCK team right now, and even though they’re 2-2, in my opinion, they were lucky to win last week against Carolina, who made it tough on their defense especially.  With a win here next Monday night, the Lions actually have a chance to be 8-0 at their Bye Week break.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE INCREDIBLY LOW 5 POINTS FOR 5 STARS AND MAKE IT MY NFC PLAY OF THE WEEK.  I’M ALSO TAKING THE OVER BECAUSE IT’S MONDAY NIGHT!!   Remember, Detroit 8-0 at the bye week this year and a playoff team.

SUMMARY

BUFFALO +3 OVER PHILLY      5
OVER 52 PHILLY-BUFFALO      5
HOUSTON -5 OVER OAKLAND  4
OVER 48 ½ HOU-OAKLAND      4
N.ENGLAND -7 ½ OVER JETS  4
OVER 49 ½ N.E.-JETS                  5
G.BAY -5 ½ OVER ATLANTA    5
OVER 47 ½ DETROIT-CHI          4
CINCY PICK OVER JAX                4
OVER 46 DENVER-S.D.                 5
DETROIT -5 OVER CHICAGO     5

Plays for Week 3