September 22, 2013

Roy caught a ride on a Terrapin and was late to the show. We talk to Sean Salisbury, and Tony Mazur about how god still hates Cleveland, and the best NFL picks of week 3. 

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WEEK 3 PREDICTIONS

SAN FRANCISCO – 10 ½ OVER INDIANAPOLIS – I really don’t see how a banged up team that has problems tackling to begin with and let Terrelle Pryor run for over 100 yards from the QB position in Game 1 can defend a pissed off Colin Kaepernick and a maniacal Jim Harbaugh on Sunday. Even though the 49ers have some problems of their own, I see them playing hard, scoring often, and giving the Colts a big loss. Stanford guys or no Stanford guys, this game looks like a 49ers COVER and OVER. San

Francisco 38 Indy 21.

MINNESOTA -6 ½ OVER CLEVELAND – The Browns have thrown in the towel pretty much for 2013 with a trade of their number one pick last year in the draft Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts for a 1 round choice next season. Talk about sending a message to your fan base. Now the new owner (under investigation by the Justice Department) and new GM and Coach have to take the heat about this move. I’m going to take Adrian Peterson and the Vikings to put some yardage on a pretty good Cleveland defense but an offense that has virtually no punch at all and win and COVER the spread here.

Minny 31 Cleveland 10.

HOUSTON -1 ½ OVER BALTIMORE – Normally I wouldn’t bet against the Ravens at home because they are very tough there, but this isn’t Houston’s first rodeo in Baltimore and last season and the season before that, they outplayed the Ravens there only to lose a close game. I’M GIVING THE POINTS HERE and taking the road dogs to outplay and more importantly OUTDEFEND the Ravens. The Ravens defense looked much better last week but THEY PLAYED THE CLEVELAND BROWNS! This is not the Cleveland Browns and I look for the Texans to be able to run and especially throw the ball and outscore the Ravens. The Texans defense led by J.J. Watt should be able to put enough pressure on Flacco to make life tough on Sunday for him and his offense.

HOUSTON 27 BALTIMORE 20.

CINCINNATTI +3 OVER GREEN BAY – I’m sorry but I don’t see this as an accurate line. I might be proven wrong by the end of the game but last week in Green Bay the Packers played a pitiful excuse for a football team in the Washington Redskins and outplayed them from the start putting up over 600 yards in total offense. Their defense didn’t play all that great especially in the second half where they seemed to take their foot off the pedal. Now they travel to Cincinnatti, a place where the team is maybe the most physical in the league. They don’t make mistakes on offense and defensively they attack the quarterback like he stole something from them. I see the line as Cincy -3 or 4 not them being the dog so when I see VALUE people, I jump at it. TAKE THE BENGALS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS HERE.

CINCINNATTI 34 GREEN BAY 28. OH YEAH, TAKE THE OVER ALSO.

NEW YORK GIANTS -1 OVER CAROLINA – I have to make a confession. I didn’t particularly like this game until I found out that Head Coach Tom Coughlin’s brother died in an accident after the game last week stepping out of a cab. Tragedy befalls all of us from time to time but losing a younger brother is like losing a son. It hurts terribly especially when you are as close as they were. Put that together with a matchup that last season was a complete mismatch in favor of the Giants and you’ve got a game that the Giants should be ready to go hard with. I love the matchups of wide receivers from the Giants and backs on the linebackers and defensive backs of the Panthers. Add the fact that their best defensive back Charles Godfrey is out for the season and I like the Giants scoring a lot of points here from the start. They may not have to run the ball. Cam Newton is decent and has a couple of guys to go to but nothing like the Giants.

GIANTS IN A BIG COVER HERE MINUS THE POINT. GIANTS 34 CAROLINA 24.

TAKE THE OVER IF THE WEATHER IS GOOD.

SEATTLE -19 ½ OVER JACKSONVILLE – Sure this line is too big. Sure no NFL team should not be able to cover 20 points. Sure. This Jacksonville team sucks. They may be the worst team to assemble in the NFL in many years. This Seattle team barring injury will host the NFC Championship game this season and playing in that stadium is a 10 point advantage MINIMUM. Without talking about the complete mismatch in talent and coaching, TAKE SEATTLE in my PLAY OF THE WEEKEND! GIVE THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. This isn’t quite as bad as Ohio State playing Kenmore Junior High School like yesterday, but it’s not far off. Really it isn’t.

SEATTLE 48 JACKSONVILLE 7. Oh yeah, Pete Carroll DOES love to run it up.

Hopefully Pete doesn’t take Jacksonville.

WASHINGTON-DETROIT OVER 49 POINTS – Neither of these teams seems to be able to play much defense and if things go like they have for the Washington NFL team so far this season, Detroit should jump out to about a 28-0 lead in the first half and let Washington score some points in the second half. Matt Stafford is one of the best QB’s in the league and he is throwing against a secondary where a dysfunctional D’Angelo Hall is their best back. Add to that defense injuries and a linebacking corps led by an aging, slowing London Fletcher and you have a lot of yardage being made by the Lions offense.

I’M TAKING OVER 49 POINTS. MIGHT GO OVER BY HALFTIME.

NEW ORLEANS-ARIZONA OVER 48 ½ POINTS – Even with Larry Fitzgerald questionable, the Cards have a quarterback that can now throw the ball to his receivers. Add a decent running game and a defense led by Patrick Peterson (who is going home to Louisiana) and a rookie Honey Badger (LSU great) this might be a close game and may also be a high scoring game. Drew Brees hasn’t been his usual great self so far this season but I look for him to come out of it this game and score some points. They should have some success against a Cards defense that is adequate but not all that great. Rob Ryan’s Saint’s defense has improved but still has some problems. Playing indoors I see the Saints winning a close game here but the Cardinals staying right with them till the end. TAKE THE OVER 48 ½ POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

September 8, 2013

When Bruce is away, the SMC Radio will play. We talk College Football and give you our first week NFL picks.

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WEEK 17 NFL MATCHUPS

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This is our end of year wrap up show. Listen for our top sports moments of 2012 and email us at BruceHallSports@gmail.com if you have a moment we missed.

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Matchups
BUFFALO -3 OVER JETS (39) – The Jets beat the Bills opening day in September by 20 points.  Since that game not much positive has happened for either team.  The Jets defense is better than Buffalo’s but the Bills offense is much better than the Jets.  Mark Sanchez is back as the starting QB for the Jets after they discovered that Greg McElroy received a concussion after being sacked 11 times last weekend against the Chargers.  Tim Tebow is done for the year and Will not play for the Jets. Lucky Tebow.  There was talk earlier this week that Rex Ryan said that he wished that the Jets would fire him if they weren’t going to spend any more money to improve their offensive line.   He denied that he said that the next day but nothing is too hard to believe  about this circus we call the New York Jets.  The Jets have beaten the Bills 6 straight times. RB C.J. Spiller has rushed for a 6.5 yard average and 1,185 yards this season.  You would think the Bills could just bang him between the tackles and win but that isn’t the case.  He’s only carried the ball 183 times all season long.  Most of the Bills receivers are hurt.  The Bills have been outscored 89-39 during their current losing streak.   I’M GONG TO PASS ON THE GAME BECAUSE NEITHER TEAM IS HEALTHY ENOUGH TO COUNT ON.

CHICAGO -3 AT DETROIT (45) – The Bears are beat up but still in the playoff hunt but need to win against the Lions and the Packers need to beat the Vikings for them to have any chance at all. The Bears have won 8 of their last 9 games against the Lions.   Detroit seems to be in every game they play but their defense can’t seem to stop anyone.  Jay Cutler is a mystery. At times he looks phenomenal.  Other times he looks lost and frustrated.  Chicago’s big gun RB Matt Forte has a sprained ankle and is about 60% I hear.  He is probably going to play.  Brandon Marshall is Brandon Marshall, but he’ll be getting double and triple coverage the entire game.  To say Detroit has been a disappointment this season would be an understatement but they can score some points.  The lack of a decent running game gives opponents an advantage.  They can spend a lot of time double covering Calvin Johnson.  It looks like Matthew Stafford will become the first QB in NFL history to throw for 5,000 yards two seasons in a row.  Unfortunately for Stafford, he won’t be playing in the postseason. Many people think that the Lions are playing for HC Jim Schwartz’s job.  Evidently there is friction between GM Martin Mayhew and Schwartz.   Bears LB Brian Urlacher will not play this week because of a bad hamstring.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER IN THIS GAME INSIDE A DOME FOR 4 STARS l BOTH TEAMS WILL BE LIGHTING IT UP.

NEW ORLEANS -5 OVER CAROLINA (54) – Two teams with almost identical results this season. Both teams for different reasons started out very slow.  The Saints with Bountygate looming large and the loss of their head coach Sean Peyton hitting them hard, they started 0-4.  The Panthers finished 6-10 last season and looked they they’d improve only to start 2-8 looking nothing like a winning NFL football team. Lately, however, both teams have looked much better.  The Saints have gone 7-4 since their tough start and the Panthers have won 5 of their last 8 games with wins against Atlanta and Washington.  Now both teams finish up against each other, a division game with more meaning than most.  Carolina won the first game between the two 35-27 in Charlotte.  Most of the money is on New Orleans but I like the Panthers here, 5 points in what seems to me to be a toss up.  This week Saints HC Sean Peyton signed a huge deal giving him an additional 5 years in New Orleans.  The Panthers, on the other hand, are playing for Head Coach Ron Rivera’s job.  coaching move.  This should be interesting.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE PANTHERS PLUS THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS.

ATLANTA -3.5 OVER TAMPA BAY (45.5) – With a guaranteed off week with the NFC’s number 1 seed, the Falcons will probably play their starters at least for a half and try to keep their momentum going as they go after their 14th win.  Smith has said nothing so far about resting his starters.  Being a division game and facing a team that has lost 5 games in a row anything is possible.  After a great start the Bucs have lost 5 in a row and played themselves out of the playoff hunt.  Bucs QB Josh Freeman has thrown 8 picks in his last 2 games.  That is as many as he threw in his first 13 games.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.

HOUSTON -6.5 AT INDIANAPOLIS (46.5)-  The Texans have NEVER won in Indy.  They are 0-10 there.  The Colts have won 5 straight home games.  This is a tough game to call only because the Texans NEED the game to keep home field advantage in the AFC playoffs and the Colts are LOCKED in at the 5th seed for playoffs already.  The Colts could elect to cruise through this game resting many or all of their starters for the playoffs.  Houston really can’t afford to do that unless they want to play a championship game somewhere besides their home field. After his bout with cancer, Chuck Pagano will be on the sideline for the Colts.  Both GM’s Ryan Grigson and Rick Smith were teammates at Purdue in 1991-92. Indy is either going to travel to New England or Baltimore depending on what the outcome of the Bengals-Ravens game is.  It seems that it would be hard for the Colts to tone down the emotion in the game and not play to win.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE IT’S JUST TOO TOUGH TO PREDICT WHAT THE COLTS WILL DO.

PITTSBURGH -10 OVER CLEVELAND (34.5) – The Steelers need a win to break even this season at 8-8.   Ben Roethlisberger is 14-1 lifetime against the Browns.  The Browns won the earlier game this season at home by a score of 20-14.  Because of injuries the Browns go to their practice squad QB Thaddeus Lewis who played his college ball at Duke under David Cutcliffe, Eli and Peyton Manning’s college coach.  Because of my relationship with Ron Middleton who still coaches at Duke with Cutcliffe, I watched Lewis play quite a bit in college.  He’s a player and understands the passing game.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see him play well on Sunday.  The Steelers will be without TE Heath Miller.  Cleveland RB Trent Richardson is OUT for Sunday also.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.

 

TENNESSEE -4.5 OVER JACKSONVILLE (42) – Two of the worst teams in the league may be undergoing major change after this game is over.  It wouldn’t surprise me if both Mike Mularkey of Jacksonville and Mike Munchak of the Titans both lost their jobs. New GM’s wouldn’t hurt either. To handicap this game would be a complete waste of time.  Last week Tennessee lost to the Packers 55-7.  Jacksonville right now looks like the first pick in the 2013 draft.  PASS.

CINCINNATI -2.5 OVER BALTIMORE (41) – This could be the second of three games between these two division rivals this season. The Bengals have sewn up the 6th seed and would play the Ravens again next week if the Ravens win. Something tells me the Ravens DON’T want that so I look for the Ravens to possibly throw this game to the Bengals so they will face another opponent at home. In their home opener this season the Ravens beat Cincinnati 44-13.  The Steelers and the Browns are both out of the playoffs.  I’m going to PASS on this game.

GIANTS -7 OVER PHILADELPHIA (46) – The Giants need the Cowboys to lose to the Redskins and they need to beat the Eagles AND have the Packers beat the Vikings in order to have a chance to make the playoffs.  Otherwise they’ll see a pretty massive late season meltdown cost them a chance to repeat as Super Bowl Champs.  Mike Vick is supposed to get the start for the Eagles this week after Nick Foles broke his hand last week.  Vick hasn’t played in 8 weeks.  The Eagles may play hard in what turns out to be HC Andy Reid’s final game as an Eagles head coach.  Andy had a great run in Philly with some great defenses and Donovan McNabb at QB.  Unfortunately, his team failed the past couple of years to produce.  The Eagles are BARELY an OK—team.  The Giants are OK and they are at home.  Eli Manning has gone from an “elite” QB to an also ran the second half of the season.  After starting the season 6-2 the Giants have lost 5 of their last 7 games.  To their credit, the G-men have played a tough schedule.   Losses to Dallas, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Washington, Atlanta, and Baltimore have hurt the Giants.  THIS GAME IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL.  PASS.

NEW ENGLAND -10.5 OVER MIAMI (46) – If the Pats see that Houston and Denver have won and are winning while their own game is being played in Foxboro, Belichick might rest some of his starters especially on the offensive line.  It should be cold and possibly snowing in New England during the game.  Miami generally doesn’t fare too well in the cold.  However, they’re not that bad.  I’m going to PASS ON PLAYING THE GAME BECAUSE OF THESE REASONS.  BTW, Wes Welker set an NFL record catching at least 10 passes in 18 games. With a win Miami can even up their record at 8-8.  Not bad for first year HC Joe Philbin who has done a good job this year. The Pats could end up in any of the top 4 seeds depending on the results today.  Reggie Bush needs 40 rushing yards to get 1,000 yards rushing this season.

GREEN BAY -3.5 OVER MINNESOTA (46) – Green Bay needs a win here to get a first round bye in the playoffs. Right it down. Green Bay and Aaron Rodgers are almost unbeatable in domes.  He’s the best NFL QB indoors.  Adrian Peterson won’t be 100% and the Vikings need to win to have any chance at the playoffs this season.  I don’t think it will matter. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE PACKERS TO WIN BY AT LEAST A TOUCHDOWN AGAINST THE VIKES.  GIVE THE POINTS.

SAN FRANCISCO -16.5 OVER ARIZONA (39) – I really don’t see how the the Cards are going to be able to stay close to a pissed off 49ers team that got KILLED by the Seahawks last week.  The only way the 49ers don’t win the West is with a loss on Sunday.  I see a 27-0 win here for the Niners.  The defense will have to figure out how to win without Justin Smith who may be out for the season with a torn triceps.  I’M GOING TO PLAY THE NINERS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

SAN DIEGO -9.5 OVER OAKLAND (39.5) – This will be HC Norv Turner’s last game as the HC of the Chargers.  GM A.J. Smith might be gone too.  Norv may end up as an OC somewhere but his head coaching days are over for now.  With QB Carson Palmer out for the Raiders, look for backups Matt Leinart and Terrell Pryor to get all the snaps.  Even though the Chargers with a win will end up 7-9 this season, look for Chargers QB Phillip Rivers to go down throwing.  He has a 25-5 record as a starting QB in December.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME WITH THE LINE AS HIGH AS 10 POINTS NOW.

DENVER -16.5 OVER KANSAS CITY (42) – The Broncos have won 10 games in a row. Peyton Manning is working out pretty well in Denver.  The Broncos can ensure they will have a first round bye with a win here today and at the same time, ensure that the Chiefs will have the first pick in the draft.  I can’t believe that the Chiefs would even risk that option.  The Broncos have won their last 3 games by a combined 52 points.  A win today would give HC John Fox 100 including the playoffs.  RB Knowshon Moreno has been fantastic at RB since taking over in Denver.  They have the best defense in the league.  I’M GONG TO TAKE DENVER AND GIVE ALL THOSE POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

SEATTLE -11 OVER ST. LOUIS (42.5) – Seattle has scored 150 points and given up just 30 points the past three games.  The Rams will come to play Sunday because a win puts them over .500 for the first time since the “fastest show on turf” teams.  Seattle can only win the division if the 49ers lose to the Cards.  That isn’t going to happen.  Seahawk QB Russell Wilson is a monster.  He may very well win ROY honors this season, beating out the first two picks in the draft.  He was a 3rd round pick.  The Seahawks are 7-0 at home.  How hard they play and how many starters they rest will depend on a number of factors but I can’t help but think that Pete Carroll will try his hardest to win this game.  I don’t think the Seahawks know any other way to play.  Rams HC Jeff Fisher has done a remarkable job this season and normally would be in contention for COY honors.  However, there are so many HCs that have done remarkable jobs this season, that is unlikely.  Sam Bradford can throw the ball but has a limited arsenal of receivers.  Their running game is all but done for the season.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME BUT IT SHOULD BE A SEAHAWK WIN.

WASHINGTON -3 OVER DALLAS (49.5) – It doesn’t get any better than this in the NFL.  Last game of the season, winner wins the division outright game on national TV at 8:30 on Sunday night.  Add to that it is the team I grew up loving and it’s even better.  Both teams are playing well right now.  I never thought I’d be saying what I’m about to say but the Redskins defense has been playing better than Dallas recently.  The Redskins offense leads the league in rushing with rookie RB Alfred Morris in contention for ROY against his own RG3.  The Redskins offense has over 6,000 yards total already.  The Skins have won 6 in a row.  The Cowboys have won 5 out of their last 7.  Whoever makes the fewest mistakes will win the game.  Robert Griffin is about 70-80% after injuring his knee three weeks ago.  Last week he played the entire game but was just a shell of what he usually is but it was good enough to hold on to beat the Eagles.  Nobody is any hotter than Tony Romo right now.  I’M GOING TO TAKE WASHINGTON MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS.  I JUST THINK IT’S THEIR TIME.

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Matchups
INDIANAPOLIS -7 AT KANSAS CITY (41.5) – I don’t see any way that the Chiefs beat the Colts with so much on the line here for Indy, but it’s hard to give 7 points on the road for a team that isn’t all that good.  Andrew Luck is getting ready on Sunday to break the rookie record for yardage passing that Cam Newton set just last season.  He throws a lot of picks though.  Kansas City, on the other hand, HAS NO QUARTERBACK to speak of.  Brady Quinn will get the start.  Quinn’s QB rating is 64.7. He has 2 TD’s and 6 picks.  Come to think of it, maybe the Colts WILL over the 7 point spread.  Chiefs best WR Dwayne Bowe is out for the rest of the season.  Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles has 1,230 yards but just 4 TD’s.  Indy’s Reggie Wayne needs just 3 catches to reach 100 receptions for a season once again.   I’m going to retain my sanity here and PASS on this game.

WASHINGTON -6.5 AT PHILADELPHIA (45) – Robert Griffin will be starting for Washington and the last time these two teams met he had a PERFECT QB rating.  I’m not looking for that on Sunday but I would expect that it should be a closer game than 31-6.  The Redskins have already rushed for 2,347 yards and 17 TD’s this season.  Skins rookie RB Alfred Morris has rushed for 1,322 yards and 9 TD’s.  He may break Clinton Portis’ Redskins record in the next couple of weeks.  The Eagles defense has been anything but stellar this season.  Last week at home Cincinnati beat them by 21 points.  The Skins hold a share of first place in the NFC East for the first time since 1999. I think I was in Disney World when that happened with the kids.  The Skins have won 5 games in a row.  For the Eagles and their fans, they may be seeing the last of long-tenured HC Andy Reid, who lost one of his sons to a drug overdose in training camp this season.  In my opinion, this game reeks of a trap game.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME AND IF I DO ANYTING AT ALL, I’LL PROBABLY TAKE THE EAGLES PLUS THE POINTS.

JETS -2.5 OVER SAN DIEGO (38.5) – This game means nothing now to the Jets and even less to the Chargers.  Norv Turner and his GM are on their way OUT of San Diego.  Chargers QB Phillip Rivers is 24-5 in December in his career.  Mark Sanchez is finally out as the starter after last week’s debacle.   Why it took so long only says something about how bad their other two QBs are.  3rd stringer Greg McElroy will get the start. Tim Tebow will be gone after the season is over.  I have NO idea why he didn’t get playing time but I can only think it’s because this team isn’t willing to change their philosophy of offense to fit a winner likeTebow.  Hell, Sanchez can’t even keep his relationship with Eva Longoria going.  Rex isn’t going anywhere anytime soon.  He’ll be the HC of the Jets for at least another year.  San Diego starting RB Ryan Matthews is out for the season.  I doubt the Chargers will have much of a punch offensively and defensively but the Jets are soooooo bad.  I’M GOING TO PASS ONTHIS GAME.  Say Good night Norv.

CAROLINA -8.5 OVER OAKLAND (48.5) – Cam Newton and the Panthers are finally playing some good football.  Unfortunately for them, the season doesn’t have enough games left to give them a chance to make the playoffs.  The Raiders are horrible.  The Panthers are decent AND they are at home.  The Raiders are 1-5 on the road.  Cam Newton has thrown 152 passes in a row without a pick which is the longest in the NFL currently and the longest in Panther history.  Defensively the Panthers have been playing much better as of late.  DL Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson have combined for 21.5 sacks so far this year.  DeAngelo Williams, the only RB in NFL history with 1,000 carries and over a 5 yard per carry average besides Jim Brown, is hitting his stride.  The Raiders are coming off a 15-0 shutout win against the Chiefs, one of their best defensive games of the season. Carson Palmer the Raiders QB will be easy to find somewhere in the pocket for the pass rush of the Panthers.  I’M TAKING THE PANTHERS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

CINCINNATI +3.5 AT PITTSBURGH (41.5) – I never thought I’d like the Bengals more than the Steelers this season but after winning 5 out of the last 6 the Bengals are in position to make the playoffs for a second consecutive season for the first time since 1981-82.  The Bengals DEFENSE has been the difference this season.  The Steelers, on the other hand, have LOST 4 of their last 5 games and are in jeopardy of not making the playoffs.  Bad blood between OC Todd Haley and QB Ben Roethlisberger emerged this week and you have to think Haley is walking on thin ice here.  To make the playoffs the Steelers have to win their final two games starting with this one.  Cincinnati RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, the law firm, has rushed for 1,080 yards this season.  WR A.J. Green may be the best receiver in the AFC, having caught 85 passes for 1,208 yards and 11 TDs.  Andy Dalton is 0-5 against the Steelers in his career. If there was ever a time for him to lead the Bengals to a win in Pittsburgh, it’s now.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME.

MIAMI -4.5 OVER BUFFALO (41.5) – The Bills will miss the postseason for their 13th consecutive year, extending that current NFL streak.  HC Chan Gailey is probably gone but will hook up as an OC next season somewhere.   Last week the Bills were crushed by the Seahawks in Toronto by a score of 50-17.  Earlier this season, they were beaten by the Patriots at home in Buffalo by a score of 52-28.   6 weeks ago the Bills beat Miami at home by a score of 19-14.  Since that loss the Dolphins have played extremely well.  Rookie HC Joe Philbin is turning it around in Miami with rookie QB Ryan Tannehill.  Reggie Bush should have a field day against the Bills.  The lack of quality receivers hurts the Dolphins but WR Brian Hartline has 67 receptions for 1,002 yards but just one TD.  I look for a GOOD Dolphin defense to dial up the pressure on immobile Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and deliver a big win to the fans in Miami.  Last week the Dolphins ’72 team celebrated their undefeated season.  TAKE THE DOLPHINS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

GREEN BAY -12.5 OVER TENNESSEE (44.5) – Green Bay K Mason Crosby has hit only 17 out of 29 FG attempts this season but HC Mike McCarthy stands beside his kicker and says there will be no kicking changes.  The Packers have struggled running the football the entire season but that shouldn’t be a problem against the Titans.  Last week the Titans took advantage of multiple Mark Sanchez picks and held on to beat the Jets in New York.  Titans RB Chris Johnson has 1,156 yards this season but many of those yards come in long bursts like last week’s 91 yard TD run.  Titan QB Jake Locker has struggled this season when he’s been healthy.  Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has thrown 32 TDs so far this season with only 8 picks.  His QB rating of 104.7 leads the NFC.  One of his favorite receivers Jordy Nelson is OUT for today’s game.  He still has plenty of quality receivers to choose from to throw to.  WR Randall Cobb may become the first NFL player with 1,000 yards receiving and 1,000 yards on returns in a season.  WR James Jones leads the Packers and the NFL with TD receptions with 12.  LOOK FOR THE PACKERS TO RUN IT UP AGAINST A TITAN DEFENSE THAT DOESN’T DEFEND THE PASS VERY WELL.  TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS.

DALLAS -2.5 OVER NEW ORLEANS (52) – THIS  is going to be a great football game to watch.  The Cowboys haven’t played better in a few year than they are playing as a team right now.  The defense will have to find a way to stop or slow down Drew Brees.  If they can do that they can run the ball effectively with DeMarco Murray and throw the ball downfield to Romo’s group of talented receivers.  Even though the Cowboys have struggled at home since the construction of their spaceship they call home, they are playing better at home as of late.  This game could go either way but I like Dallas and the OVER here.  Its gonna be a shootout no matter how well the defenses play.  I give the Dallas kicker Bailey the edge in a close game.  TAKE THE COWBOYS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS.

NEW ENGLAND -14 AT JACKSONVILLE (50.5) – After losing at home in a monsoon on Monday night this past week to the 49ers, I can’t imagine Brady and the Pats not coming out and trying to run up a big score in Jacksonville this weekend.  Brady has thrown for 30 TDs and just 6 picks.  Wes Welker needs just one more 10 reception game to tie the NFL record currently held by HOFer Jerry Rice.  Gronkowski is back but will get limited playing time till the playoffs.  RB Steven Ridley has had a great time running the football for the Pats.  He has 1,105 yards with 10 TDs.  The Jaguars have no RB’s to speak of anymore.  Chad Henne has done OK at QB but he has very limited receivers to throw to.  They have lost 3 game in a row to Buffalo, the Jets, and Miami by a combined 47 points. Don’t look for a close game here.  TAKE THE PATS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS.

HOUSTON -7.5 OVER MINNESOTA (45) – This game is all about Adrian Peterson and the ability of the Vikings to move the ball, not turn it over, and score.  If they can do those things, it’s going to be a great game.  If not, look for the Texans to run and pass the football and play some great defense and win easily.  Minnesota is not that strong of a team.  Right now the Vikings are positioned in the 6th playoff spot.  Next week they host Green Bay and that matchup has not been good for them at home for many years.   Adrian Peterson needs 287 yards to break Eric Dickerson’s NFL rushing record.  Texas is playing for home field advantage through the playoffs.  The Texans are coming off a 29-17 win and cover against Andrew Luck and the Colts. Texas QB Matt Schaub should be able to move the ball through the air easily. The Vikings pass rush is their only hope to hold the Texans score down.   I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME. TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

TAMPA BAY -3 OVER ST. LOUIS – Two teams all of a sudden going opposite directions.  Tampa Bay is imploding somehow and St. Louis is building on a good team of the future.  After looking like a playoff team, the Bucs have lost 4 games in a row.  Last week they were shutout by a score of 41-0 to the Saints in New Orleans.  This week the Rams with Sam Bradford at QB should be able to throw the ball against the league’s worst pass defense.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME FOR SURE. UGLY.

DENVER -12.5 OVER CLEVELAND (41.5) – Denver is still playing for home field advantage having already wrapped up the division championship.  The Browns haven’t beaten the Broncos since 1990.  The Broncos have the league’s longest current winning h with 9 games.  Peyton Manning has surpassed everyone’s expectations this season and looks to be leading his Broncos to the Super Bowl.  RB Knowshon Moreno has been ripping off great pieces of real estate running the football lately.  Even though the Browns record is 5-9 they have played well at times this season and have improved dramatically. Last week they were embarrassed by a rookie backup QB and the Redskins.  This week they travel into Mile High and a team looking for rings.  I don’t see the Browns defense being able to slow down Manning and his offense and I don’t see the Browns offense scoring many points against one of the best defenses in the league and their home crowd.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE BRONCOS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

CHICAGO -6 AT ARIZONA (36.5) – Could be a bang up defensive struggle here with both offenses not doing much of anything.  Talk about a strange matchup.  After looking like a possible Super Bowl team, the Bears have lost 5 of 6 games.  Lovie isn’t doing so well right now.  Their offensive line has always been a problem and playing good defenses seems to be a problem for this offense.  Injuries have caused OC Mike Tice to move some people around on the OL.  Last week the Cards offense woke up and put 38 points up against Detroit at home.  Now the Bears come into town but the Bears have a better defense.  If the Cards front 7 can put pressure on Bears QB Jay Cutler they should be able to stay close.  The Bears are playing for their playoff lives but it might be too late.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON UGLY GAME.

GIANTS – 2.5 AT BALTIMORE (47) –  These are two of my favorite teams to root for and to study.  Right now both teams are struggling.  The Ravens defense doesn’t seem to be able to stop anyone at times.  The Ravens have lost 3 games in a row for the first time I can remember.  Now a HUNGRY New York Giants team comes into town for a must win.  This is also a MUST win for the Ravens.  The Giants offense hasn’t been consistent all season long.  However, their MO is to win after a loss and the loss couldn’t be more obvious than last week’s 34-0 shutout at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons.  The Ravens CRUSHED me in my pick last week.  I’VE GOT TO PASS ON THIS GAME.  THERE IS NO WAY I CAN TELL WHO IS GOING TO STEP UP SINCE BOTH TEAMS SEEM TO BE UNABLE TO DO SO.

WEEK 15 NFL MATCHUPS

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Matchups
ST. LOUIS -2.5 OVER MINNESOTA (38.5) – The Vikings are tough to handicap this season for a few reasons.  Number 1 reason is QB Christian Ponder is inconsistent in his play.  The only sure thing about the Vikings is that future HOF RB Adrian Peterson is going to make life miserable for the linebackers and defensive backs of the Rams when they try to tackle him.  A.P. has 1600 yards and 10 TD’s through 13 games.  If he averages 134 yards per game the rest of the way, he’ll get to 2,000 yards the first year after having knee surgery.  Jeff Fisher and his Rams are an average team but improving every week.  They have won three games in a row and have tied and beaten the San Francisco Giants, one of the top teams in the league.  This week they host the Vikings who still have a chance to make the playoffs but they must win this weekend to have any shot at all since the finish up with Houston and Green Bay.  After this game the Rams travel to Tampa and Seattle to finish up the season.  Probably not going to win those games.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME. TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

GREEN BAY -2.5 AT CHICAGO (43.5) – To say the Bears are banged up would be an understatement of tremendous proportions.  Green Bay DC Dom Capers has had Jay Cutler’s number for many games now.  His QB number against Capers lifetime is 55 in 7 meetings.  He is 1-5 as a starter against them.   The Bears have 3 starters on defense down since last weekend.  Cutler looks like he’ll play.  The Bears HAVE TO WIN this game to make the playoffs.  The Bears have lost 4 out of their last 5 games.  All Pro LB Clay Matthews comes back this week for the Packers defense.  The Packers have won the last 5 in this series and I’m looking  for number 6 here this Sunday. Even though I like the Pack here to win, I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME.

WASHINGTON  PICK AT CLEVELAND (37.5) – It seems that everyone betting this game right now feels that RG3 is going to start. Otherwise Cleveland would be the favorite by as much as 4 or 5 points.  However, I don’t think that Kirk Cousins will hurt the Skins if he starts.  RB Alfred Morris has 1228 yards on 253 carries this season.  Cleveland rookie RB Trent Richardson has 869 yards and has already tied Jim Brown’s rookie rushing TD record of 9.  Still the key here is Robert Griffin.  If Griffin starts and plays, and it could be a gametime decision, the Skins probably win.  If not, it is a toss up.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME SINCE IT IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL. RG3 DOUBT TOO BIG OF A FACTOR.

DENVER -3 OVER BATLTIMORE (48) – I really don’t see this line at all, even with Lewis out and Suggs 70%. The Ravens are a pretty good football team.   The Broncos and Peyton Manning have won 8 games in a row but the teams they’ve beaten have a combined `37-67 record. I don’t see the Broncos winning out in the regular season and if they beat the Ravens, they probably will with Cleveland and Kansas City next at home.  I like the fact that John Harbaugh finally fired Cam Cameron, his OC after his last minute loss last week against the Redskins.  Many would have liked to see that move much earlier, but Harbaugh has sent his message to his team.  Win NOW!  The Ravens MUST WIN this game to have a shot at the playoffs with the New York Giants and Cincinnati Bengals following this game.  BOTH of those teams must win also.  Denver is the team that doesn’t HAVE to win to make the playoffs.  Ravens QB Joe Flacco is much better at home with a 100.7 QB rating this season. Ravens RB Ray Rice will get plenty of touches on Sunday which will help the Ravens cause.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE RAVENS PLUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS ON SUNDAY!! THEY NEED THIS GAME FAR TOO BADLY TO LOSE IT.

HOUSTON -10 OVER INDIANAPOLIS (47.5) – Once again I’m going to challenge the overachieving Indy Colts and their Chuckstrong force that has been the biggest surprise this season.  I sound like a broke record but “I HAVE THE COLTS RATED A N OK—TEAM”.  I have the Texans rated as a GOOD team and they are playing at home.  After getting CRUSHED in New England last week, I see the Texans coming home and completely DESTROYING the COLTS at their place.  Two starting OLinemen for the Colts are out this week.  With just over 200 yards passing this week, Rookie QB Andrew Luck will have 4,000 yards.  WR Reggie Wayne needs 6 receptions to reach 100 again in a season.  The Texans should be able to pound Foster and Tate for big yardage on the ground making throwing the ball downfield to Johnson and the TE’s easy.  This game is a must for the Texans if they want to keep their quest for home field advantage in the playoffs.  After last week, I doubt they want to return to New England where nothing but bad things will happen.  Look for the Texans to come off that loss last week kicking ass.  TAKE THE HOUSTON TEXANS MINUS THE DOUBLE FIGURES FOR 5 STARS.

NEW ORLEANS -3.5 OVER TAMPA BAY (54) – Might be the highest total all season long but who cares? It will probably go over again but I’ll probably just play this total in a 3 teamer.  Tampa’s pass defense is worst in the league and even though Drew Brees has had 9 turnovers in his last two games, he should torch the Bucs again.  The only thing the Saints can do at this point is ruin everyone else’s party.  Tampa QB Josh Freeman has slowed down in the last two games but he’s still having a good year and has plenty of receivers to throw to.  The Saints defense sucks too.  Bucs RB Doug Martin has 1234 yards and 10 TD’s already.  Both teams have lost 3 in a row with the Saints playing the tougher schedule.  I’m GOING TO TAKE THE OVER FOR 4 STARS IN THIS GAME AND DON’T GIVE A DAMN WHO WINS THE GAME.

ATLANTA -1.5 OVER GIANTS (51) – This is a rematch of last year’s first round game in Atlanta where the Giants CRUSHED the Falcons 24-2.  These two teams don’t match up very well for the Falcons.  However, the Giants defense  isn’t the BEAST it was during the playoffs last year yet and this game should be much closer.  Three weeks ago the Giants DESTROYED Green Bay, then lost a close one in Washington, then put up a 50 burger last week against New Orleans.  Consistency is something the Giants have not been this season.  The Falcons until last week when they lost by 10 to the Carolina Panthers, had won several close games in winning 11 out of 12 games.  Now they host a Giants team that they should beat but find themselves barely a favorite against.  The Falcons are 6-0 at home as usual.  The Giants, normally road warriors, have lost their last two road games against Cincinnati and Washington.  Ahmad Bradshaw is OUT for the Giants. So is S Kenny Phillips.  So are two or three defensive players.  This game is Atlanta’s for the taking but the Giants need the game badly.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME BECAUSE IT’S JUST TOO CLOSE TO CALL, EVEN THOUGH THE FALCONS IS A GOOD VALUE HERE.

MIAMI -7.5 OVER JACKSONVILLE (37.5) – This game pretty much sucks. I guess Marv Albert is working for free along with Rich Gannon.  Please don’t make me even think about this game.

DETROIT -6.5 OVER ARIZONA (43.5) – I love Detroit here just because they need a win in the worst way and Arizona hasn’t won since September, having lost 9 games in a row.  Detroit isn’t much better having lost 5 games in a row.  The Cards are starting rookie Ryan Lindley who has a 42.6 QB rating. Seriiously, he does.  Last week Larry Fitzgerald caught 1 pass for 2 yards.  Seriously, he did.  Last week the Cards lost in Seattle by a score of 58-0.  The Lions have played several games in a row that have been close and they always seem to be in games late.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME BECAUSE NEITHER TEAM HAS MUCH TO PLAY FOR. BOTH TEAMS ARE PLAYING FOR THEIR COACHES’ JOBS BUT IT MIGHT BE TOO LATE.

SAN DIEGO -3 OVER CAROLINA (45) – It’s all over but the shouting in San Diego for Norv Turner and A.J. Smith but last week the Chargers traveled to Pittsburgh and beat Ben Roethelisberger and the Steelers 34-24.  In December, Norv Turner’s teams are 19-4 in San Diego.  Carolina’s Cam Newton has played well lately and brings a 88 QB rating into San Diego.  Philip River is a comparable 85 QB rating.  San Diego has the better defense and they are at home.  Last week the Panthers upset the 11`-1 Falcons by a score of 30-20.  With both teams coming off a loss, I’m going to go with Norv and the Chargers to win and cover at home.

SEATTLE -5 AT BUFFALO (43) – Seattle is by far the better team here and should win easily, but it IS on the road and it IS in TORONTO, NOT EVEN BUFFALO.  Buffalo RB Fred Jackson is OUT.  Seattle is 2-5 on the road this year.  They are undefeated at home.  Toronto is a long way from Seattle but the good news for the Seahawks is that they game is at 4:05 EDT, which is like a 1:05 game at home.  After this game in Toronto the Hawks return for their last two games at home against San Francisco and St. Louis.  With a win here in Toronto the Bills have a shot at an 8-8 record but I don’t think that is possible.  Russell Wilson has a 94.9 QB Rating.  Bills RB C.J. Spiller has a 6.6 yard per carry average this season.   Seattle’s Marshawn Lynch has a 4.9 yard per carry average and has a total of 1266 yards.  If Seattle doesn’t turn the ball over on Sunday, I don’t see the Bills being able to win the game.  Bills DE Mario Williams has finally shaken off some injuries and has 10.5 sacks.  I like Seattle winning this game but I think that 5 points might be too many.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME BUT I DO LIKE THE OVER 43 POINTS A TAD.

OAKLAND -3 OVER KANSAS CITY (44) – Two of the worst teams in the league.  Oakland HC will stay. Romeo Crennel will probably be gone and hopefully with GM Scott Paoli.  These two teams are so bad I feel that I will get something on me if I even talk about them.  Combined W-L records of 5-21 says all you need to know.  If the Chiefs don’t win this one, they’ll end up 2-14 and probably pick first in the draft.  That doesn’t sound like a bad thing.  Oakland is in the same boat.  A  loss here and they probably lose their last two games.  PASS.

PITTSBURGH -2.5 AT DALLAS (45) – Cowboys WR Dez Bryant has a broke finger but is supposed to play.  Steelers G Willie Colon is out for the season.  The Steelers will move some guys around to cover for him.  Big Ben came back last week and lost at home to the Chargers.  The Steelers are 3-0 against the NFC this season.  Dallas RB DeMarco Murray should be close to 100%  for the game.  Tony Romo has no choice but to win this game at home as an underdog in front of his home crowd.  Don’t be surprised to hear as many cheers in Dallas for the Steelers as the Cowboys because Steelers black and orange travel well.  The Cowboys defense is banged up so badly that I doubt they’ll have much of a chance to stop even a weakened Pittsburgh offense. However, the Boys are 4-1 in their last 5 games.  Go figure.  Maybe they don’t need much of a defense to win.   I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME, BUT I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER FOR 4 STARS.  45 POINTS SHOULD BE EASY.

NEW ENGLAND -4.5 OVER SAN FRANCISCO (46.5) – Tom Brady has NEVER beaten the San Francisco 49ers.  The Niners need to be careful here in New England.  The Pats hardly EVER lose at home for one reason or another.  Whether it’s good play or cheating or a combination of both, the Pats are what they are, and they are kicking ass and taking names right now. In their last 6 games the Pats have scored 255 points. That’s an AVERAGE of 42.5 points per game.  DAMN!!!  The Giants have only given up 184 points all season long.  Something has got to give.  San Francisco better not get caught looking ahead to next week to Seattle in a division game which may decide the winner of the NFC West.  The Pats have only6 Jacksonville and Miami after this game to finish off the regular season.  The Niners have Seattle and Arizona.  I LIKE THE PATS HERE MINUS THE POINTS AND THE OVER FOR 4 STARS EACH.