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Matchups
WASHINGTON -2.5 OVER BALTIMORE (47.5) – If last week’s game in Washington was the biggest game in years for the Redskins, then this week is a close follow up from a standpoint of importance at least to the outcome of this season.  The Ravens are coming off of a 23-20 score loss to their division rivals the Pittsburgh Steelers last week.  They were NOT supposed to lose that game.  The truth is that except for a couple of games this season, the Ravens have had problems scoring.  Ray Rice has averaged 4.4 yards per carry and has scored 8 TD’s but many think he has not touched the ball enough.  WR Torrey Smith has been QB Joe Flacco’s favorite receiver with 42 receptions for a 17.4 yard average and 7 TD’s.  Other wide out Anuquan Boldin has lost a step and seems to have trouble getting separation anymore like he used to.  Opposing teams are having much more success running the ball against the Ravens.  The Redskins have had NO trouble running the football this season, averaging 5.3 yards per carry and having rushed for more than 2,000 yards already.  Rookie QB Robert Griffin III has been nothing short of phenomenal leading the Redskins offense.  He has the highest rookie QB rating this late in the season EVER at 104.4.  Their defense, however, has given up 24 TD’s already, the most in the NFL.  Lately they’ve played much better having won three games in a row for the first time since 2005.  I look for the Redskins to continue to move the ball and score points against a Ravens defense that has played better since Terrell Suggs’ return but also not having played an offense like the Redskins since being crushed by the Houston Texans 7 weeks ago 43-13.  TAKE THE REDSKINS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

CINCINNATI – 3.5 OVER DALLAS (46) – The Cowboys last four wins have been against Carolina, Cleveland, and Philly twice.  Good teams  have beaten the Cowboys ALL SEASON.  They have rushed the ball only 277 times all season long.  They have thrown the ball 493 times.  This kind of imbalance is not good for an offense and Dallas’ offense has struggled much of the season.   The Bengals have won four games in a row.  They lead the NFL in sacks with 39.  Dallas is 1-3 lifetime in Cincinnati.  The Cowboys defense is banged up and now a starting DT is in jail.  This will not be pretty in Cincy but you never know.  Second year QB Andy Dalton has improved dramatically having thrown for a 91.3 QB rating and 24 TD’s.  RB BenJarvis Green-Ellis has picked up the pace rushing the football having gained 885 yards and 5 TD’s.  Dallas has struggled running the football all year long.  The Bengals need a win badly here.  Their last two games this season are against division rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore.  If Cincy is going to make the playoffs, a win here is imperative.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME BUT IF THE WEATHER IS OK, TAKE THE OVER IN THIS BALLGAME FOR 3 STARS.

TAMPA BAY -7.5 OVER PHILADELPHIA (47.5) – There is a good chance that Mike Vick has seen his last snap as the starting QB of the Eagles.  Rookie QB Nick Foles has steadily improved and even though the Eagles can not BUY a victory, they’ve looked good at times especially on offense.  Last week in Dallas they scored 33 points in a loss there.  They’ve lost 8 games in a row.  Andy Reid is done.  Word has him already going to San Diego after Norv Turner is fired there.  The change of venue may work for Reid, who has proven to be a quality coach in his past, but maybe he needs to take a couple of years off for his health and his family.  Tampa Bay, in my opinion, has been one of the good feeling stories in the league this year.  Rookie HC Mike Schiano has turned this team around especially on offense.  Rookie RB Doug Martin has rushed for 1,106 yards and 9 TD’s this season.  Josh Freeman has thrown for a 92.1 QB rating and 23 TD’s and only 8 picks.  On Sunday the Bucs should light up the scoreboard against the Eagles.  The have played tough back to back games against Atlanta and Denver and are coming into this game with a 6-6 record still very much in the wild card hunt in the NFC.  The Eagles have given up a 98.8 QB rating this season.  The Bucs should be able to win this game but the 8-9 point lay is just too much. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.

INDY -5 OVER TENNESSEE (45.5) – There are three great rookie QB’s in the NFL and Andrew Luck is one of them.  He is the first number 1 pick in the NFL to record 8 victories in a season since 1966.  Indy has an 8-4 record despite having a -16 turnover margin.  Their stats rate them as an OK—team.  Somehow Luck has led them to victories that seemed to have been impossible when looking at them now.  This week they play a Titans team that I also have rated as an OK—team but their record is 4-8.  Chris Johnson of the Titans has rushed for 993 yards so far this season but the yardage hasn’t really made the team much better.   However, with 7 yards he will have rushed for 1,000 yards 5 straight seasons.   2^nd year QB Jake Locker is back for the Titans and they’ve lost two games in a row to Jacksonville and Houston. Now they travel to the RCA Dome in Indy where the Colts have won 5 in a row.  Luck won’t let them lose a game they need.  With two game against Houston coming up in their last three games, they can’t afford a loss right here.  Future HOF Reggie Wayne has quietly caught 88 passes for 1156 yards this season as Luck’s number one target.  Luck teamed up for a TD last week with college roommate Coby Fleener for his first of his NFL career coming back from an injury.  I’M GOINT TO TAKE THE COLTS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS HERE.

CLEVELAND -7 OVER KANSAS CITY (38) – Even with the big team win last week by the Chiefs following the horrific Saturday murder-suicide, I doubt they’ll have enough to travel to Cleveland and beat a much improved, tough Cleveland Browns squad that has shown many positives in their last several games.  They’ve won two in a row and are the best 4-8 team in the league.  Everything on offense starts with giving the ball to rookie RB Trent Richardson.  He’s on his way to over 1000 yards this season and has caught 44 passes out of the backfield.  Rookie QB Brandon Weeden has been up and down all season long but he has a good, young receiving corps that give him an opportunity to move the ball.  On the other side of the ball, K.C. has Brady Quinn calling the signals.  He had a good game last week against Carolina but for the most part Quinn has been ineffective. However, he returns also to the city and team that drafted him in 2007.  K.C. RB Peyton Hillis returns to the scene of the accident that was his stay in Cleveland and may have some incentive to play well.  Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles has looked great at times this season and has 1055 yards already running the ball.  I have the Chiefs rated as a SUCK team and the Browns are an OK- team playing at home.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME BUT I LOOK FOR THE BROWNS TO EXTEND THEIR WINNING STREAK HERE AT HOME AGAINST A WEAK TEAM.

ATLANTA -3.5 AT CAROLINA (48.5) – This has all the looks of a “trap” game here.  Atlanta is easily a touchdown better than Cam Newton and his Panthers squad but will Atlanta play at the top of their game?  Who knows?  They are playing for home field advantage in the NFC playoffs but that doesn’t always mean they’ll come out and play their best.  Their record is 11-1 but in Week 4 Carolina almost beat the Falcons losing by a score of 30-28.  These two teams are extremely familiar with each other and it wouldn’t surprise me a bit to see Cam and the Panthers stay very close again. Since week 9 Cam has passed for a 101.5 rating and looked incredible at times.  He is also become more of a leader even though he tends to ham it up sometimes.   The Atlanta offense seems to be struggling a bit with moving the ball and getting into the end zone. Matt Ryan is still throwing for a 94.9 rating but has 13 picks.  That’s a lot of picks for Ryan.  Future HOF TE Tony Gonzales has been a God send this season.  He has 73 receptions for 7 TD’s already.  Julio Jones and Roddy White have almost combined for 2,000 yards already this season.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.  IF THE WEATHER IS GOOD I LIKE THE OVER HERE FOR 4 STARS.

BUFFALO -3 OVER ST. LOUIS (42.5) – Since traveling to London the Rams have played extremely well except for one hiccup against the Jets especially on defense.  Jeff Fisher and his Rams have already tied and BEATEN the 49ers this season.  Offensively they have struggled though.  They may have the best kicker in the league in Greg Zuerlein who won last week’s game against the Niners with a long field goal.  The weather should be testy on Sunday in Buffalo and that may be in the Bills’ favor but make no mistake about it.  The Rams are the better team.  Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has struggled at times this season.  RB C.J. Spiller is averaging an incredible 6.6 yards per carry this season for the Bills.  Their DEFENSE however, is giving up 5 yards per carry and have given up 17 rushing TD’s already.  The Bills defense to their credit, have played better as of late.  Buffalo is in a three way tie with Miami and the Jets with 5 wins.  If Fisher’s Rams can win this game it will be their 3^rd in a row, the most in 6 years.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.  TOO MANY QUESTIONS AND NOT ENOUGH REAL ANSWERS.

JETS -3 AT JACKSONVILLE (38.5) – This game has plenty of sidelights going for it. Starting QB Chad Henne, who has had some success recently coming to the rescue of the very weak Jacksonville franchise, used to play QB for Jets OC Tony Sparano.  Sparano will know how to attack Henne.  The Landry Brothers will be playing against each other for the first time ever.  Laron and Dawan.  The Jacksonville defense is giving up 144 rushing yards per game.  The Jets will run the football on Sunday to help set up Mark Sanchez and his weak offensive passing game.  How good are the Jets? Not good but they are definitely better than the Jaguars.  They sandwiched two big wins with a 30 point loss at home against New England recently.  Including Jacksonville, their four remaining games are against teams with a 15-33 record.  They have the best chance in the AFC East to come up with a wild card playoff berth.  They should finish with at least an 8-8 record.  If so, Rex will probably keep his job. If they lose 3 out of 4, maybe not.  The Jaguars have won just one game at home all season long, two weeks ago against Tennessee.  I’m going to take the JETS TO WIN AND COVER THE SPREAD SUNDAY AGAINST THE JAGS.

STEELERS -8 OVER SAN DIEGO (40) – The Steelers get Big Ben back this weekend and will be playing at home in bad weather in front of a crazy crowd that knows they need to win the game.  Word came out of San Diego this week that San Diego HC Norv Turner and GM A.J. Smith are leaving after the last game of the season.  Owner Dean Spanos came out and denied that. That only confirms it for me.   That fact and a cross country trip to Pittsburgh in December when the Steelers need the win all adds up to a Chargers loos for me.  I like the Steelers winning the but the 8 point cover is a lot to ask for an offense that managed only 10 points in a loss two weeks against Baltimore and 14 points against the Browns.  Backup QB Charlie Batch put it on the Ravens last week and put up 23 points.  There’s no reason to think that Ben won’t be able to score against a Chargers defense that gave up 34 to Tampa and 30 to Denver.  The Chargers have lost 7 out of their last 8 games and 4 in a row on the road.  With all of the negatives in San Diego right now I have a hard time not giving up the 8 points but I’m gonna PASS on the game anyway.  Chargers QB Phillip Rivers, who is having an off year, is a gamer and will not step back from the challenge.  PASS.

CHICAGO -3 AT MINNESOTA (39) – The Bears have lost 4 games this season, all to playoff teams probably.   They generally beat the teams they are supposed to beat.  The Bears have beaten the Vikings 6 straight game.  If there ever was a time for a Vikings win it is this week.  Percy Harvin is out for the Vikings which cripples their offense but All Pro LB Brian Urlacher is probably out for the season with a bad hamstring injury.  The Bears are keeping an extra blocker in to help prevent Jay Cutler from getting his jersey dirty and nobody it seems can stop Bears RB Brandon Marshall.  Vikings RB Adrian Peterson leads the league with 1446 yards and a 6.2 yards per carry average.  I’m sure the Chicago defense will put 8 in the box and challenge 2^nd year QB Christian Ponder to beat them through the air without Percy Harvin.  The Vikings are 5-1 on the road and need a victory even worse than the Bears.  Four weeks ago in their last home game, the Vikings beat Detroit 34-14.  They have lost two division games in a row on the road to the Bears and to the Packers.  If the Vikings had Percy Harvin active, I’d be all over them with Peterson’s running game, but because of too many questions on how they’ll score, I’LL PASS ON THE GAME.

SAN FRANCISCO -10.5 OVER MIAMI (38.5) –  Look for this 49ers team to bounce back this week and DESTROY the visiting Dolphins at home this week.  Three weeks ago after tying the Rams, the Niners came back with a 32-7 victory against the Bears.  Niners QB Colin Kaepernick gets his 3^rd start of the season.  HC Jim Harbaugh has decided that this is his guy for right now.  The Dolphins are a pretty good 5-7 team.  I look for a strong does of running the football from the 49ers this week.  They are averaging 5.3 yards per carry on the season.  It seems that every time the Niners have a hiccup, they come back with a very strong game. Ryan Tannehill meet Aldon Smith. 31.5 sacks in his first 28 games.  Take the Niners.   I’M GOING TO TAKE THE NINERS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS.  LOVE THEM TODAY.

SEATTLE -10 OVER ARIZONA (34.5) – Over the past six NFL weeks, Seahawk rookie QB Russell Wilson has the highest QB rating in the league at 114.6.  Seattle is 5-0 at home and Wilson has a 122 passer rating there.  Arizona can be competitive and they are starting John Skelton who was the starting QB opening day for the Cardinals.  The 4-8 Cards won their first 4 games.  Including an opening day win vs. Seattle.  I look for some payback by the Seahawks on Sunday.  Seattle is 7-5 and have looked great even in their losses.  Seahawk RB Marshawn Lynch has rushed for 1138 yards and 6 TD’s.  Way too many minuses and unknowns in this game on the Cards side of the ball to consider them.   The Cards were 0-5 last week against the Jets defense.  That’s pathetic.   I’M GOING TO TAKE THE SEAHAWKS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS.

GIANTS -5 OVER NEW ORLEANS (53) – The last time I saw a breakdown of where they money is going in a Giants game and it was this bad, I took them and I covered.  Even though the Giants are at home, they are much better than Drew Brees and the Saints.  However, Brees has never lost to the Giants (he is 4-0) and has 11 TD’s.  The Giants are a game out in front in the NFC East.  The Saints are in a “must win” situation.  To make the playoffs the Saints MUST win on Sunday.  The Saints had an extra 3 days to prepare for this game.  The Saints are going to get a massive dose of Ahmad Bradhsaw.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME AND IF THE WEATHER IS CLEAR, I’LL TAKE THE OVER 53 POINTS FOR A BUNDLE.

GREEN BAY -6.5 OVER DETROIT (48.5) – This has all the makings of a shootout.  Two teams with two QB’s who can throw for 5,000 yards any season they play.  Last time Detroit QB Matt Stafford played in Green Bay he threw for over 500 yards and 5 TD’s.  Stafford’s receivers are banged up though and one has been sent packing.  WR Calvin Johnson has 1428 yards through 12 games, the most of ANY NFL RECEIVER since Lance Alworth in 1965.  Unreal.  Even though the Packers are 8-4 and look like a shoo-in for the playoffs, anything in this game can happen.  Weather or no weather, I love the OVER here for 5 stars.

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Pro Football Pick-Em – Picking against the spread

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Matchups
Yesterday morning, Kansas City Chiefs LB Jovan Belcher, a 4^th year linebacker from the University of Maine, shot and killed his 22 year old girlfriend Casandra Perkins, the mother of his 3 month old daughter.  According to reports, Chiefs HC Romeo Crennel and GM Scott Paoli were talking to Belcher outside the facility when the police drove up.  Belcher walked to his car where he put a gun to his head and pulled the trigger.

GREEN BAY -8 OVER MINNESOTA (46) – The last Minnesota win against Green Bay was in 2009 when Brad Childress was the head coach of the Vikings and Brett Favre was the QB. Without Percy Harvin, who is doubtful, I don’t see the Vikings being able to win this game but staying close will be all about keeping Aaron Rodgers off the field.  For that to happen, RB Adrian Peterson, who has 5 consecutive 100 yard games, will have to be very successful against the Green Bay defense running the football. Peterson is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and has scored 7 TD’s.  Minnesota TE Kyle Rudolph has had success moving the chains for the Vikings.  The Packers got hammered by the Giants in their last game on the road 38-10 but before that game had won 5 games in a row.  In the last 3 ½ games against Minnesota Rodgers has thrown for a 140.5 passer rating. This game could end up being a shootout.  Most of the money in Vegas is on the Vikings against the spread.  I see an opportunity here for the Packers and I’m going to take THE PACKERS TO COVER THE 8 POINT SPREAD.  DEPENDING ON THE WEATHER I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER 46 POINTS ALSO.  BOTH PLAYS ARE MODERATE, IN THE 3 POINT RANGE.

HOUSTON -6 ½ AT TENNESSEE (47) – This is a game I have no real feel for.  The Titans are 10-1 and have made every move needed for those 10 wins.  The offense is solid with 15 rushing TD’s and 19 passing TD’s from QB Matt Schaub.  Last week the Texans survived OT and a kick in the nuts from Detroit punk Ndamakung Suh.  The Texans have won their last 4 games by a total of 27 points, the last two in overtime.  Last week the Titans lost in Jacksonville to the Jaguars 24-19.  The problem of the Titans hasn’t been so much its offense but its defense which has given up 335 points in 11 games.  To keep up with the Texans, Titans QB Jake Locker is going to have to put points up on the scoreboard.  Houston should have ALL of its offensive weapons available on Sunday.  I’m going to PASS ON THIS GAME EVEN THOUGH I LIKE THE OVER A LITTLE BIT.

JETS -6 OVER ARIZONA (43.5) – Obviously neither of these two teams are playing well right now.  They both have a 4-7 record.  The Cards haven’t won a game since going 4-0 in September.  They have lost 7 in a row.  They travel cross country this week to play a Jets team that is under siege.  They have lost 6 of their last 8 games.  The Cards played Atlanta tough two weeks ago.  One of the big problems for the Cardinals is they really don’t have a decent starting QB.  Right now they’re on number 3 QB Ryan Lindley who can’t seem to find receivers and has a 47 QB rating.  Waiting for starting QB Kevin Kolb to come back from an injury is getting old.  Their offensive line can’t seem to protect the QB either having given up 47 sacks so far.  Jets QB Mark Sanchez isn’t much better nor is his supporting cast.  Their WRs give them nothing offensively.  The Jets’ leading receiver is a TE.  On Thanksgiving night, the Jets lost to the Pats by 30 points at home.  If you have a wild hair, play the better coached team on the road here.  I’M PASSING ON THE GAME.  IT ISN’T GOING TO BE PRETTY.

NEW ENGLAND -7 AT MIAMI (51) – This game is going to be tougher than it looks.  Miami for years has had the Patriots number especially in games in Miami.  The Patriots own a 14-33 record in Miami, not one of their more respectable series in their history.  Many of those losses came much earlier in the series and New England generally isn’t as good on the road as at home, not even close.  The Pats last 4 games they’ve scored 45, 37, 59, and 49 points respectively.  That’s SICK! Sure, they don’t have the Gronk, but they have several other weapons and Tom Brady.  The Dolphins rookie QB Ryan Tannehill is best in an up tempo mode. HC Joe Philbin knows how to move the football.  The Dolphins beat the tough Seattle Seahawks last week and scored 24 points.  If Miami is going to stay close and have a chance to win this game, they’ll have to put up some points. Dolphins are healthy, the Pats not so much.  I like the over here because the weather is nice and it’s not going to be that windy.  The key is going to be the Dolphins scoring points.  Even though the Dolphin defense has played well at times this season, they haven’t faced a team like New England this season.  Three weeks ago the Titans ran up 37 on them. I feel that the Pats can do much worse.  However, with a 3 game lead in the division and the Houston Texans coming up a week from now on Monday night, the Pats might cruise with the injury problems.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME COMPLETELY.

DETROIT -6 OVER INDIANAPOLIS (51) – Detroit is playing for their playoff lives this weekend.  If they lose they are done.  They may be done even if they win, but one thing is for sure.  They won’t go down without a fight.  On Thanksgiving they had the Houston Texans beat when a technicality cost them a touchdown that should never have happened. Indy is NOT that good of a football team. I have them rated as an OK—team. However, they have played exceptionally well as a team and have a 7-4 record. This is despite giving up 4.8 yards per carry and a 96.6 QB rating with 19 TD’s.  Those numbers are far worse than the Lions numbers. The Colts are also much better in the RCA Dome than on the road.  Matt Stafford is well on his way to a 5,000 yard season again.  WR Calvin Johnson is warming up and getting healthy.  He has caught 73 passes for 1,257 yards this season already.  RB MIkel LeShoure has done a good job running the football for the Lions. His 6 TD’s are the most TD’s by a Lions RB this late in the season since Kevin Smith 2008.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE LIONS IN A HOME WIN AND COVER HERE.  I’M GOING TO PLAY THE OVER 51 POINTS IN A SMALLER PLAY.

CAROLINA -3.5 AT KANSAS CITY (40.5) – I’m not even sure this game should take place, but like the U.S. Mail I guess, the show must go on. Cam Newton has looked better as of late.  His attitude and his offense looks much better as of late.  Kansas City has scored only 3 touchdowns in their last 7 games.  They have NO quarterback. They have a running game but can’t pass. I’m going to pass on the game just because I have no idea what God’s plans are for the outcome of this game.  Some things are more important than football. PASS.

CHICAGO -3 OVER SEATTLE (37.5) – The Bears are a good football team. They have been inconsistent at times but still lead the NFC North Division by a game over the Packers.  Bears QB Jay Cutler will have to contend with a beat up, not so great pass blocking offensive line.  The Bears will come out running the ball with Matt Forte and be looking to throw the ball downfield to WR Brandon Marshall.  Even though the Seahawks are just 6-5, they have played well behind rookie QB Russell Wilson.  He has thrown for a 94 point QB rating and has All Pro RB Marshawn Lynch to hand off to.  They lost a close game last week in Miami 24-21.  The Seahawks, however, have won all but one of their games at home this year.  Their only win on the road was early in the season against an impotent Carolina team that was struggling at the time. This is a game the Bears cannot afford to lose.  They have 3 division games out of the last 4 games starting next week.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE BEARS MINUS THE 3 POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

BUFFALO -6 OVER JACKSONVILLE (43.5) – These two teams are going nowhere fast.  One of Buffalo’s players recommended to the media this past week that their HC Chan Gailey give up his play calling for the offense.  Nice.  But Jacksonville, who had to wait over 2 months for their 2^nd win of the season, is alive.  They’re breathing and it’s because of their backup QB from Michigan WAY back Chad Henne. Henne was considered a better QB at Michigan than Brady ever was.  Unfortunately, they went different directions and the rest is history but right now this week Henne is taking a 99.6 QB rating into this game with Buffalo.  Buffalo has given up almost 30 points per game this season.  Both teams have played a pretty tough schedule.  Buffalo plays 4 of their last 5 games at home, with one home game in Toronto. They have a shot at an 8-8 season although I doubt they’ll see it.  Bills RB C.J. Spiller has rushed for 6.7 yards per carry and 830 yards this season.  Jacksonville has a 4-2 record in Buffalo lifetime.  In my opinion both teams will be scoring points almost at will tomorrow. I don’t see either defense doing much harm to the offenses of these teams.   Even though the weather is going to be a little rough, I like the OVER here of just 43 ½ .

SAN FRANCISCO -7.5 AT ST. LOUIS (40.5) – This game you would think would be a slam dunk. St. Louis three weeks ago played the 49ers even for 4 quarters in Candlestick park. Now the Rams HOST the same 49ers in their at their place indoors with their crowd.  You’d think that all of the money in the country would be bet on the Rams but it isn’t.  The 49ers have over 80% of the play right now. Colin Kaepernick will get the start again for the 49ers this week. After the tie to St. Louis the Niners have beaten Chicago and traveled to New Orleans and beaten Drew Brees and the Saints.  The Rams lost to the Jets at home and last week rebounded to beat the Cardinals at home.  The Rams offensive line is together for the first time all season long.  Defensively the Rams are going to have to deal with Kaepernick, a talented QB who moves in the pocket and can run for yardage.  He gives the Niners an edge there and will be tough to pressure and sack.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.

CLEVELAND -2.5 AT OAKLAND (38) – Two teams going in different directions here. Cleveland is improving and has been in almost every game this season despite their 3-8 record.  The Raiders seem to be imploding and don’t seem to have any real talent on the field anymore.  Right now they seem years away from winning.  Last week the Browns beat a Ben Roethelisberger-less Steelers team 20-14.  Earlier this season they beat the Bengals at home also.  They haven’t had as much luck on the road this season, but they’ve played tough. Losing to Cincy, Baltimore, the New York Giants, Indy, and in overtime to Dallas.  All of those games were winnable. Now they travel to the black hole where the Raiders don’t seem to have any home field advantage anymore.  They Raiders have lost 4 games in a row albeit to good teams but they really haven’t been in any of the games.  Now a tough Browns team comes in with rookie QB Brandon Weeden and rookie RB Trent Richardson.  The receivers have been making plays too.  Defensively, Cleveland has played well all year.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME BUT I LOVE THE OVER 38 POINTS! PLAY IT FOR 5 stars.

CINCINNATI -1 AT SAN DIEGO (46) – The Bengals and Andy Dalton seem to be warming up making a playoff run here late in the season.  I’ve always been wary of Marvin Lewis coached teams but this season he’s making a believer out of me.  After losing 4 in a row at midseason, the Bengals have reeled off three wins in a row after playing Denver tough at home.  One of those wins was against the Super Bowl Champion Giants.  Now they travel to San Diego where Norv Turner is all but gone.  I was watching NFL Network and LaDanian Tomlinson even said Norv has lost the locker room.  The Chargers 4 wins are against teams with a combined 9-35 record.  Last week the Chargers lost a tough one to the Ravens who they seemed to have beaten but the Ravens and Ray Rice converted a 4^th and 29 call for a first time then go on and score to take the game to overtime where they won the game 16-13.  That had to take a lot of steam out of the 4-7 Chargers.  Now the Bengals come to town needing a win.  Chargers RB Ryan Matthews has been a big disappointment this season.  He is their leading rusher averaging 4.1 yards per carry.  Future HOF TE Antonio Gates seems to be running out of gas.  He’s only caught 32 passes for 368 yards and just 4 TD’s.  Injuries and drops have defined the Chargers WRs this season.  At QB for the Chargers, Phillip Rivers continues to struggle with his mechanics and even though he has thrown for 18 TD’s he has 14 picks.  On the Bengals side of the ball, The Law Firm has been running the ball well the past several weeks.  He has 5 TDs and 767 yards from scrimmage.  Second year QB Andy Dalton has steadily improved this season going to his big guy A.J. Green for 10 TDs already and over 1,000 yards.  His TD Jermaine Gresham has as many yards as the top wideout for San Diego, Malcom Floyd. Dalton joins Dan Marino and Peyton Manning as the only rookie NFL QBs to have ever thrown for 20 TDs in their first two years in the league.  Pretty good company right there.   I’M GOING TO LEAVE THE STRAIGHT PLAY ALONE, BUT I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER FOR 4 STARS. I SEE NORV PUTTING THIS BALL IN THE AIR QUITE A BIT AGAINST THE BENGALS.

BALTIMORE -7.5 OVER PITTSBURGH (36.5) – This is my play of the week.  I’ve had this game circled since opening day even if Big Ben HAD been playing in the game. Now he won’t be there.  38 year old Charlie Batch gets the start for the Steelers and the Ravens defense will be ready.  The Steelers turned the ball over last week 8 times in a loss.  The Ravens have 12 straight wins in the NFC North division.  The Steelers were the last team to beat Baltimore at home in 2010.  The Steelers will keep it simple in Baltimore running the ball with RB Jonathan Dwyer who is averaging 4.4 yards per carry but has yet to score a touchdown.  TE Heath Miller will be getting a lot of looks for the Steelers from Batch.  The will try to stretch the field with Mike Wallace.  The Ravens will be ready to play on Sunday.  Flacco is good but especially good at home.  WR Torrey Smith has caught just 39 passes but has 7 TDs so far this season.  Anquan Boldin leads the team in receptions with 50 but only one score.  TE Dennis Pitta has become one of Flacco’s favorite targets catching 44 passes with 4 TD’s.  RB Ray Rice is the horse for the offense, having rushed for 794 yards and 7 TDs this season.  He has also caught 48 passes out of the backfield.  TAKE THE RAVENS IN THIS ONE MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. THIS IS MY PLAY OF THE WEEK!!

DENVER -7.5 OVER TAMPA BAY (50.5) – This game is going to be exciting with the Bucs coming to the high altitude with a bunch of tough young players trying to keep their playoff hopes alive.  The Broncos and Peyton Manning can’t really afford to let up this week.  If they do the Bucs are liable to win.  The race in the AFC West is all but over.  The Broncos lead by 4 games.  If they win today they can clinch the division title.  The Bucs have won their last 3 road games and lost a tough one last week at home to Atlanta 24-23.  Rookie RB Doug Martin has had a phenomenal year so far rushing for 1,050 yards and 9 TDs.  Second year QB Josh Freeman has improved drastically this season under the tutelage of rookie HC Greg Schiano.  Defensively the Bucs are improving also.  The Broncos are riding the arm of Peyton Manning and the very good Bronco defense.  Denver is only 1-3 against teams with a winning record this season.  Willis McGahee is out for the season for the Broncos.  Knowshon Moreno has done a decent job in his absence.  The Broncos only managed 17 points last week against the Kansas City Chiefs.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE BUCS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS AND THE OVER 50 POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

DALLAS -10.5 OVER PHILADELPHIA (48.5) – Two teams that you’re not used to being horrible this late in the season.  Dallas has several key injuries.  So do the Eagles.  Rookie QB Nick Foles will start again for the Eagles.  They have lost 7 games in a row for the first time since many, many years ago.  These last few, tough games are going to be tough for Andy Reid and his Eagles.  They players love Reid.  They just can’t help him with their talent level right now.  Mike Vick won’t be back till next week if he comes back next week.  Three weeks ago Tony Romo and the Cowboys traveled to Philly and won by 15 points.  I don’t see anything changing here this week even though the Cowboys generally don’t do that well at home.  They won in OT against Cleveland at home last week.  The Browns should have won the game.  Cowboys C Phil Costa is out.  DB Scandrick is out for the season.  S Charlie Peprah and NT Jay Ratliff are doubtful. The Cowboys do get back starting RB DeMarco Murray this week.  I should probably activate him for my fantsy team.  Personally, I would find it hard to just watch this game.  I have too much respect for both teams to do that.  It’s painful.  The Cowboys will probably win the game but it might not be that easy.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME.

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Matchups
SEATTLE -3 OVER MIAMI (38.5) – After winning three in a row, the Dolphins have struggled losing their last 3 games.  Seattle travels cross country to Miami for what  in reality is a 10 am game for them.  Rookie QB Russell Wilson has been solid for the Seahawks throwing for a 91 QB rating but has been much better at home than on the road.  The Seahawks have lost 4 out of 5 on the road.  In RB Marshawn Lynch they may have the best RB in the league.  Miami should continue to have problems scoring against this excellent Seattle defense.  Rookie QB Ryan Tannehill has struggled at QB for the Dolphins.  He’s thrown for a 71 QB rating and thrown for only 6 TD’s and 11 interceptions.  If he does that against the Seahawks, Miami will go down for their 7^th loss of the season.  Miami’s RB Reggie Bush if he plays should get plenty of touches.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.

ATLANTA -1 AT TAMPA BAY (50) – 7 of the last 8 games the Falcons have played has been decided by a touchdown or less, no matter WHO they are playing.  Falcons QB Matt Ryan is coming off of a 5 interception performance last weekend against the Cardinals but they WON!  I know. I released the Falcons as a big play last week.  The Bucs behind first year coach Greg Schiano have made huge strides this season.  Even though their defense is still a work in progress, they’ve won 5 of their last 6 games and have a 6-4 record.  Young Bucs QB Josh Freeman has been awesome, throwing for a 95 QB rating and 21 TD’s and only 7 picks.  Rookie RB Doug Martin has rushed for 1,000 yards already this season averaging 5.1 yards per carry.  In overtime last week against the Carolina Panthers, Martin carried the ball 5 times for 48 yards.  After last week, the Bucs were tied with the Saints for the league lead in points scored!   The Bucs on the defensive side of the ball will struggle against the Falcons when they throw the ball.  They are giving up 312 yards per game in the air.  The Bucs have scored 215 points over the last six weeks.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER HERE FOR 5 STARS!

TENNESSEE -4 AT JACKSONVILLE (44.5) – Talk about two lousy teams here…I think the only plus on both sheets when I rated these teams for handicapping purposes was a PLUS on the kicking game of Jacksonville kicker Josh Scobee, who is 18 for 19 in FG’s.  Because Jacksonville’s offense is so pitiful, Scobee has only attempted 11 extra points.  Two weeks ago after losing 51-20 to the Bears at home, Tennessee owner Bud Adams basically said EVERYONE might get fired if something didn’t improve. Can’t remember this ever happening before, but the next week the Titans went to Miami and DESTROYED the Dolphins 37-3.  They are coming off a bye week and the trip to Jacksonville isn’t a big deal so they are favored against the Jags this week.  Titans RB Chris Johnson is averaging 5.1 yards per carry this season after a slow start.  Jake Locker will be starting at QB for the Titans.  Last week in Houston the Jags almost won their second game of the season, only to fold up in OT by a score of 43-37 but was definitely the best game they played all season long especially on offense.  Backup QB Chad Henne played the entire game for the Jags and was stellar.  These two teams suck but you have to like the home dog here getting 4 points for some reason even though the Jags are 0-5 at home this year.  Call me a dumbass but I like the Jags here at home to win their first game of the year there.  Check the weather but I also like the OVER here for 3 stars.

INDY -3 OVER BUFFALO (51) – This is do or die time for the Bills with a loss making them 4-7 here.  Last week a punt return by Leodis McKelvin for a TD gave the Bills a 19-14 win at home against the Dolphins.  Defensively they’ve had a tough season but offensively they’ve moved the football especially with screen passes to their two RB’s C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson.  Jackson comes back from a concussion Sunday to probably get plenty of touches.  Both teams have been able to throw the football this season.  Rookie QB Andrew Luck had his toughest game of the season last week against New England.  The Pats put a lot of pressure on the rookie and forced several turnovers.  Defensively both teams are in trouble.  I’m going to play the OVER this week for 5 stars in this game.

DENVER -10.5 AT KANSAS CITY (43) – These two teams couldn’t be farther from each other talent wise.  Denver behind Peyton Manning has played very well all season long and are getting better by the week.  If K.C. doesn’t beat New Orleans early in the season in OT, they’re 0-10.  Brady Quinn gets the start at QB this week for Kansas City.  Isn’t it fitting that Romeo Crennel is forced to start Quinn after benching Cassel, who never really has learned to play the game after making it to the NFL after starting at QB under former New England OC Charlie Weis.  Quinn couldn’t even start in Cleveland.  The Chiefs, even though they have a RB who has averaged 4.8 yards per carry, Jamaal Charles, are the worst team in the league.  They have lost their five home games by a combined score of 140-72.  The Broncos have won 6 of their last 7 games and their last 3 road games.  Bronco starting RB Willis McGahee is out for the season.  Ronnie Hillman and Knowshom Moreno will be replacing him there.  If the pass rushers for the Chiefs can’t get any pressure up the middle on Manning, and there’s no reason to think they will, it’s gonna be a long game for the Chiefs.  On the other side of the ball, the Denver pass rush should have a fun time rushing Brady Quinn.  Even though it’s a double digit home dog, I’m gonna pass on the game completely. Denver in another win probably.

PITTSBURGH -1.5 AT CLEVELAND (34.5) –  To give you some kind of idea what is going on in Cleveland and Pittsburgh, all you have to do is look at the betting line here.  It’s basically a toss up.  Cleveland is 2-8.  The Steelers are 6-4.  It’s a division slugfest and either team can win this game.  Big Ben is out for at least another week and after Byron Leftwich got hurt last week and only was able to put up one score on the scoreboard, Charley Batch gets the start here for the Steelers.  Batch is 5-2 when he starts a game in the place of Ben.  The Steelers will keep it pretty vanilla and simple and probably run the ball quite a big behind their offensive line.  The Browns have played tough most of the season.  Even though offensively they’ve been a work in progress, their defense has kept them in almost all of their games.  Rookie RB Trent Richardson is the key to moving the football to the Browns.  If Richardson has success running the ball, then rookie QB Brandon Weeden will have more success throwing the ball.  Browns kicker Phil Dawson is 19-19 in FG’s.  Steelers K Shaun Suisham has only missed once and is 21-22.  This game will probably come down to a MADE field goal it looks like to me.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BUT WOULD LOVE TO SEE THE BROWNS GET THEIR FIRST WIN OF THE SEASON HERE.  TOO CLOSE TO CALL THOUGH.

CHICAGO -6 OVER MINNESOTA (38.5) – This is a tough call. I’m going to pass on the game for sure but let me throw out some quick thoughts.  Christian Ponder may be the best QB on the field on Sunday.  Adrian Peterson has 5 runs of 50 yards or more against the Bears.  WR Percy Harvin is OUT for the game.  The Bears OL looked HORRIBLE against the 49ers with their pass rush.  Cutler will be a game time decision even though he passed an independent neurologist’s test on Saturday for a concussion he received last week.  It looks pretty good that Jay will play.  The Bears are 14-5 WITH Cutler, 1-6 without him.  That might be all you need to know on Sunday. Check his status.  Jason Campbell is questionable with sore ribs but will probably start if Cutler isn’t ready.  Big test for Bears OL with Jared Allen rushing the passer for the Vikings.  PASS.

CINCINNATI -8.5 OVER OAKLAND (45) – This is my “Straight Cash Homey” Randy Moss play of the day. The Bengals have looked much better as of late especially on the defensive side of the ball.  Oakland looks like a team with no talent, no offense, and no defense.  They do have a great placekicker but I’m not sure that will mean much.  Carson Palmer returns to his old home in Cincy where he led the Bengals for years.  He was traded to Oakland last season for draft choices and the man that traded him, Hue Jackson, was fired and coaches in Cincy where the draft picks lay in waiting.  Last week the Bengals got 101 yards from the Law Firm, Benjarvus Green-Ellis, his first of the season.  Running the football has been a problem all year for the Bengals.  Bengals QB Andy Dalton has quietly had a good season.  He’s thrown for a 93 QB rating with 20 TD’s and 11 picks and has one of the premier WR’s in the league in A.J. Green.  Green has 10 TD’s and 64 receptions for 911 yards.  TE Jermaine Gresham is becoming a force as of late giving Dalton a reliable guy for 3^rd down.  Since losing to the Browns over a month ago, the Bengals have shown improvement and have won 2 in a row against the Giants and Chiefs by a total of 40 points.  This is a huge game for Cincinnati with a win putting them a game over .500 and in the playoff hunt.  Lose and the remainder of the schedule probably won’t allow them to make it.  Raiders’ RB’s McFadden and Goodson are both out. So is Richard Seymour on the defensive side of the ball.  The Raiders effort will be easy to calculate here.  If the game stays close, they’re playing hard. If not, Cincinnati could blow them out.  I like the OVER here also because I don’t see Palmer coming home and not putting up some big numbers even in defeat.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE BENGALS FOR 5 STARS AND THE OVER FOR 5 STARS ALSO. CHECK THE WEATHER FOR THE OVER.

BALTIMORE -1 AT SAN DIEGO (47) – Two teams that most picked for the playoffs when the season started but it only looks like like the Ravens will be there somewhere but probably not the Chargers.  If the Chargers lose this game convincingly, it wouldn’t surprise me to see A.J. Smith fire HC Norv Turner in one of the only moves Smith will be able to make this season before he’s fired either soon or at the end of the season.  Even though Ravens QB Joe Flacco doesn’t usually play as well on the road as he does at home (65 QB rating on road), he has won 3 of his last 4 road games.  Even though the Ravens lost a starting LB and CB their defense is only giving up a 76 QB rating, one of the highest in the league.  The offense and Cam Cameron seem to be “pacing” RB Ray Rice as he has only carried the ball 164 times for 697 yards.  He has caught 40 passes for another 337 yards.  WR Torrey Smith will challenge the weak San Diego secondary with his speed. Smith has 7 TD’s and has averaged 17.3 yards per reception.  The Chargers have lost 5 of their last 6 games.  Phillip Rivers has averaged almost 2 turnovers per game during this span.  Usually reliable TE Antonio Gates has only 30 catches for 355 yards and 4 TD’s so far.  WR Malcolm Floyd has only 4 TD’s so far.  RB Ryan Matthews has underachieved with only 522 yards and just one TD so far this season.  No defense and underachieving offense is not going to line up to too many wins in San Diego this season.  Personally, I think it’s a personnel problem but Norv hasn’t really won anywhere he’s been a HC.  Traveling cross country can’t be good for the Ravens here and with the Chargers needing the game so badly, I’m going to PASS on this game completely.  Ravens the better team, Chargers will an upset possibility and a game they need desperately.  PASS.

ARIZONA -1.5 OVER ST. LOUIS (43) – The Rams CRUSHED me in my pick last week.  I had no idea they’d come out and play so poorly especially on the defensive side of the ball.  They made Mark Sanchez look like Joe Montana.  I can’t believe that practice was fun for them this week.  HC Jeff Fisher probably got his defense to make some changes this past week.  WR Danny Amendola is OUT this week however so that isn’t going to help the Rams offense.  The LOSER of this game is probably done for the year.  The winner still has a chance, but a longshot.  The Cards have lost 6 consecutive games after starting the season 4-0.  I’m not sure ANYONE has ever done that before in the NFL.  Rookie QB Ryan Lindley makes his first NFL start after coming in last week and looking horrible.  HC Ken Whisenhunt must know something or maybe he just wants to see what this kid has.  What can it hurt?  He’s lost 6 in a row.  Zona RB Beanie Wells will start Sunday coming back from a knee injury.  This game is a GREAT spot for the Cardinals but can you play a rookie QB here?  I’m going to PASS on this game.  Neither of these teams have won a game since playing each other 7 weeks ago.  That’s pretty pitiful.  St. Louis has gone 5 CONSECUTIVE GAMES WITHOUT FORCING AN OPPONENT TURNOVER. THAT HASN’T HAPPENED SINCE 1950, BEFORE I WAS BORN!  Two good head coaches. Two teams that desperately need to win a game.  I’M GOING TO PASS ONTHIS GAME BUT ARIZONA IS PROBABLY IN A GREAT SPOT HERE.  I JUST DON’T TRUST THE ROOKIE QB IN HIS FIRST GAME.

SAN FRANCISCO -1 AT NEW ORLEANS (49) – This is going to be one of the best games of the day.  The 49ers, coming off an assault of the Bears this past week, go into the Superdome to play the red hot Drew Brees and the Saints offense.  The Saints defense has played better, but their defense is still giving up huge chunks of yardage on the ground.  Colin Kaepernick is probably going to start at QB for the 49ers.  He did a great job last week with Alex Smith sidelined with a concussion.  Even though the Saints were beaten by the 49ers last season in the playoffs, they have won 6 regular season games in a row.  Brees is 5-0 in the regular season with a 107 QB rating against the Niners.  I really like the OVER here.  Not many people give the Saints much of a chance to score over 30 here, but they’re going to have to light up the scoreboard to have a chance against a 49ers team that can run AND throw.  First team to 38 wins this game, IMHO.  Look for Saints TE Jimmy Graham to have a big game today.  It will be interesting to see how the Niners attack on offense.  If they come out throwing the ball, this could be a shootout.  If not, the OVER might be a dead issue.  TAKE THE OVER HERE FOR 5 STARS.  IF YOU PLAY THE GAME, TAKE THE BETTER TEAM, THE NINERS.

GIANTS -3 OVER GREEN BAY (48) – There are so many things to like about this game.  Hard to not pik the hot Green Bay Packers who have won  5 games in a row.  Hard to pick the Giants who have looked a bit dysfunctional especially on the offensive side of the ball.  Eli Manning has put up horrible numbers recently, having NOT thrown for a TD in his last 3 games.  I can’t remember that ever happening to Eli.  On the other side of the ball, Aaron Rodgers has been on fire.  This game is a rematch of the playoff game last season when the Giants upset Green Bay in Lambeau.  Payback is a given but these guys don’t think that way.  Whoever moves the ball both on the ground and in the air and whichever DEFENSE plays the best will probably win the game.  Neither team can afford turnovers.  The Giants are 25^th in the league against the pass.  The Giants do get 3 defensive players back from injury Sunday.  Kenny Phillips will make a big difference if he’s healthy.  The Packers have won 3 games in a row on the road but they were all indoors.  That is where Rodgers is at his best.  The Packers have FOUR CONSECUTIVE ROAD WINS VS. THE GIANTS.  The Giants ARE coming off a bye week which can’t hurt.  EVERYONE IN VEGAS IS ALL OVER THE PACKERS.  THE MONEY AND STRAIGHT LINE IS ENORMOUS.  SO IS THE OVER.  If I was a conspiracy theory bettor, which I am at times, I’d take the Giants and the UNDER.  It is cold.  It is outside.  Both defenses must play better.   I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS THOUGH.

MONDAY NIGHT GAME

CAROLINA -1 OVER PHILLY (48) – If this isn’t the WORST Monday Night game in the history of MNF, it’s in the worst 2 or 3 games.  GIVE ME A CALL ANYTIME MONDAY OR TEXT ME AT 1-800-466-4748 FOR MY MNF PLAY!!

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Matchups

GREEN BAY -3 OVER DETROIT (52.5) –  The Packers have won 5 of their last 6 games and are chasing the division leading Chicago Bears who are 8-2 and just lost their starting QB this past week.  If they’re going to compete for the crown in their division, they’ll need a win here in Detroit.  4 of Detroit’s last 5 games have been on the road.  The Packers will line up on defense without two of their best players, S Charles Woodson and LB Clay Matthews on Sunday.  If the Lions are to have a chance this season to go to the playoffs, they’ll need a win here more than likely. Their schedule is brutal the rest of the way.  If you are ever going to go against the Packers in any situation, going against them when they lose their pressure on the opposing QB like tomorrow is the time to do it.  If Matthew Stafford has time to throw, this one could be very interesting.  Rodgers has a phenomenal record indoors and this one is indoors.  I’m going to play the OVER 52.5 here for 4 stars.  I don’t bet against Aaron Rodgers indoors.

CINCINNATI -3.5 at KANSAS CITY (43.5) – After losing 4 in a row the Bengals came back last week with a HUGE win at home against the New York Giants at home.  Andy Dalton threw for 4 scores last week.  The Chiefs are probably the worst team in the league.  Last week on Monday Night they played the Steelers tough but lost 16-13 in OT.  This game just stinks to look at.  I’m going to PASS on it.

ST. LOUIS – 3.5 OVER JETS (43.5) – THIS IS MY BHS PLAY OF THE WEEK! Jets are overrated even here as both teams are going different directions.  The Rams have beaten the Redskins, Cardinals, and the Seahawks at home so far this season.  The dome is comfortable for them and their new HC Jeff Fisher.  Last week coming off a bye, they TIED the 49ers who have a very good team.  Now they take on a  team that doesn’t seem to have a clue.  Their talent level is down and their QB play is atrocious.  The locker room is full of idiots sniping at one another and Tim Tebow.  They haven’t won a game in the past 7 weeks.  The Rams have a better starting QB (Sam Bradford), defense, and running game (Steven Jackson). Oh yeah, they have a better head coach in Jeff Fisher also. They got their best receiver back last week in Danny Amendola. Rams OC Brian Shottenheimer was the OC for the Jets for 5 seasons and was let go last year like it was his fault they sucked. It was the best thing that ever happened to him. Big time revenge here no matter what he says.   Add the fact that they are playing at home and I’M GOING TO TAKE THE RAMS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS! STRAIGHT CASH HOMEY!!

WASHINGTON -3 OVER PHILLY (42.5) – The Redskins have lost 3 in a row. The Eagles have lost 5 in a row but have played a TOUGH schedule.  Michael Vick is out indefinitely with a concussion and has taken a big time beating so far this season.  Rookie Nick Foles will start at QB for the Eagles.  The Redskins have LOST 8 GAMES IN A ROW WHEN FACING A ROOKIE STARTING QB BELIEVE IT OR NOT!! Boy do they suck lately. The Redskins are coming off a bye week and when that has happened here in D.C. for Shanahan, he’s 0-2. The Eagles have won 5 of their last 6 games in Washington. Even though I was all over the Skins earlier in the week, the line moved 2 points to 3.5 and that’s not enough for me to trust the Skins horrible defense against a Philly team desperate to save Andy Reid’s job.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE JUST THINKING ABOUT THE WASHINGTON REDSKINS MAKES ME SICK TO MY STOMACH. You see….I’m a Redskins fan and that’s the hardest thing in the world to be the last 14 years.  Sell the team please Mr. Snyder….please?

TAMPA BAY -1.5 OVER CAROLINA (48) – The Bucs have won 4 out of their last 5 games and have scored more points this season than they have in the history of the club.  HC Greg Schiano has his offense scoring through the air with QB Josh Freeman, who has thrown for over 100 QB rating 5 games in a row, and on the ground with the running of rookie RB Doug Martin who has 862 yards, 7 TD’s, and a 5 yard per carry average.  Since beating New Orleans at home the second game of the season, the Panthers have only beaten Washington in their last 7 games. Speaking to their defense, the Panthers have played one hell of a schedule losing to Tampa Bay, the Giants, the Falcons, Seattle, Dallas, Chicago, and Denver.  Those teams have a combined record of 44-22 so far this season.  The Bucs losses come against teams with a combined record of 17-20. Personally, I’m not completely sold on Tampa Bay, but they sure have been able to do what they need to pile up some wins.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME JUST BECAUSE IT COULD GO EITHER WAY.  CAROLINA NEEDS THE GAME SOME KIND OF TERRIBLE.

ATLANTA -9.5 OVER ARIZONA (44) – After a 4-0 start the Cards have lost 5 in a row but they are coming off a bye week.  They are having a hard time running the football at all.  They have replaced their starting left tackle because they’ve given up a league leading 41 sacks so far.  Atlanta is coming off its first loss of the season in New Orleans.  Both teams face a tough closing schedule after this game.  Last week Atlanta RB Michael Turner was held to 15 yards on 13 carries and is questionable to play today.  Even though this game looks like a trap, I think that Atlanta holds serve here and dominates a beat up, struggling Arizona team at home. Julio Jones is questionable.  The Cards need the game much more than the Falcons do, but I’m going to play small move here of 3 STARS ON THE ATLANTA FALCONS.

DALLAS -9 OVER CLEVELAND (42) – With any luck at all, the Cowboys could be undefeated after their bye week this season.  Last week their defense and special teams helped out their offense and beat Philly 38-23.  Tony Romo didn’t have a turnover.  Romo has been horrible at home this season with a 60 QB rating so far in three games. He has thrown 2 TD’s and 10 picks there.  The Cowboys are just a game and a half behind the Giants who are reeling right now but on their bye week.   RB DeMarco Murray should be playing some this week after injuring his knee. Felix Jones has done a good job in his place.  Opponents have a 90 QB rating against the Cowboys this season.  Cleveland is a better team than their record suggests.  The Browns have been in EVERY game this season so far.  For the Cowboys at home to be favored by almost 10 points is a joke, in my opinion. The boys play much better on the road than they do at home.  Hopefully that will change sometime but so far, that’s the rule.   Oh yeah, the Browns are coming off a bye week also.  Cleveland 29 year old rookie RB Brandon Weeden has been struggling as of late.  RB Trent Richardson is doing a decent job running the football.  The Cowboys DB’s should take care of the Brown’ WR’s and win the game easily but until the Cowboys win consistently at home, I’m leaving them alone.  I ACTUALLY LIKE THE COWBOYS HERE BUT I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.

NEW ORLEANS -5 AT OAKLAND (55) – The Saints are maybe the hottest team in the NFL right now.  Drew Brees is in late season form and he has a RUNNING GAME to go along with his passing yards .  I’m recognizing more and more people on their sidelines each week which is a good thing.  RB Chris Ivory is looking unstoppable.  They get Darren Sproles back this week which will just make them tougher.  After starting 0-4 and looking horrible, in the last 5 games they’ve beaten San Diego, Tampa Bay, Philly, and undefeated Atlanta!  They are still giving up 5.1 yards per carry on defense but are improving there.  In the LAST TWO GAMES THE RAIDERS HAVE GIVEN UP 97 POINTS! It’s gonna be hard to keep up with Brees and the Saints offense playing like that.  This is as bad as it’s been for the Raiders defense since 1961.  Both teams pass the ball more than any other teams in the league.  I don’t see how the Raiders stay with the red hot Saints here, but if they do, they’ll have to score a ton of points.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER 55 POINTS HERE FOR 5 STARS.  Call me at 1-800-466-4748 between noon and 4 pm to see if I release the Saints here.  I’m hearing nothing but good things right now.  CHECK THE WEATHER!

DENVER -8 OVER SAN DIEGO (53.5) – The Broncos have won 5 of their last 6 games.  Peyton Manning just gets better and better. If anything happens to him, the Broncos are in trouble.  They have averaged over an 18 point winning spread in those 5 games.  They beat the Chargers a month ago in San Diego 35-24. On the other side of the ball, Phillip Rivers has been struggling at times.  He’s thrown for 15 TD’s but he has 12 picks.  The Broncos defense has played well and they have stopped the run well the entire season.  Even more impressive for the Broncos is their 31 sacks.  They’ve only given up 11 sacks all season long.  Peyton Manning has thrown 21 TD’s and has only 5 picks and 4 were in one game early in the season.  The Chargers after starting 3-1 have lost 4 of their last 5 games with their only win being against lowly Kansas City.  San Diego HC Norv Turner is on his last legs.  It’s just a matter of time before he’s relieved of his duties in San Diego.  With one more win Peyton Manning will tie Broncos GM John Elway for 2^nd place all time in victories by a starting NFL QB.   TE Antonio Gates needs one TD to catch Lance Alworth with the most TD’s by a receiver in San Diego history.  The Broncos are playing as well if not better than every team in the NFL right now. The Chargers not so much.  I’M GOING TO TAKE DENVER HERE for 3 stars and the OVER for 5 stars.

NEW ENGLAND -9.5 OVER INDY (54) – The Patriots have a turnover margin of +16.  The Colts turnover margin is -9.  That alone is the difference in the spread.  Now you add to that a Colts defense which is improving but not dominating against Tom Brady, at home with his set of receivers and you’ve got trouble for the Colts.  After losing to the Jets 6 weeks ago by a score of 35-9, the Colts have won 4 games in a row rallying behind their head coach who is battling cancer.  Now they travel to Foxboro where it is nearly impossible to beat the cheating Pats.  I can say that because I’ve read the book, but this game might not be so easy for the Patriots, even if they are playing at home.  The Colts are giving up a 96 QB rating to opposing QB’s.  Pats RB Steven Ridley already has 814 yards rushing and 6 TD’s.  On the other side of the ball, the Pats will have to double Reggie Wayne who has 69 catches and 3 TD’s this season.  I PREDICT A LOT OF DAMN POINTS HERE TODAY..  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER 54 FOR 5 STARS HERE. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Pats dominate and the surprising 6-3 Colts to take a breath and lose here.

BALTIMORE -3.5 AT PITTSBURGH (45.5) – Ben Roethlisberger is out for this game.  Byron Leftwich will start for the Steelers. It is his first start since 2009.  Without Ben Roethlisberger the Steelers are 0-4 against the Ravens.  The Steelers defense has played great as of recently.  The Steelers are tougher at home than they are on the road.  I look for a big dose of running the football from the Steelers no matter who is doing the running.  This game even with Ben out could go either way.  Ravens RB Ray Rice has started 35 consecutive games but he needs to get more touches.  The Ravens have struggled on the road no matter where they have played. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME EVEN THOUGH THE STEELERS NEED THE GAME DESPERATELY.

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NEW ENGLAND -12 OVER BUFFALO (52.5) – Rematch of a big Pats come from behind victory earlier this season. The Pats put up a 50 burger on the Bills beating them 52-28 in Buffalo. Buffalo can’t stop anyone from scoring it seems. The Pats are starting to get it into gear with their offense. Steven Ridley gives them a guy that can get 100 yards each week. Tom Brady gets back Aaron Hernandez to go along with his group of good receivers. If the weather is nice, I like the OVER here but I like the Pats also. Teasing the Pats down to -2 is a real threat here also. They are at home so they’ll probably cheat anyway. TAKE THE PATS MINUS THE POINTS AND THE OVER FOR 4 STARS.
DETROIT -2.5 AT MINNESOTA (46) – Detroit has won 3 out of their last 4 games and now goes to Minnesota for a big time pay back game against a big division foe. Detroit RB Mikel Leshoure has looked good running the football and is helping to give time for Matthew Stafford to throw the football. Stafford has been anything but great so far this season. Vikings RB Adrian Peterson leads the league in rushing with 957 yards averaging 5.7 yards a carry. Pretty amazing considering he’s coming off complete constructive knee surgery from last season. Vikings WR Percy Harvin is out for the game this Sunday. Christian Ponder has struggled as of late. With Harvin out that’s not going to help him find his way. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME JUST BECAUSE IT’S TOO CLOSE TO CALL. Detroit should win the ballgame, though.
BALTIMORE -7.5 OVER OAKLAND (42.5) – The Ravens come off a division win at Cleveland last week and now take on a Raiders team that is coming off a home loss to Tampa Bay. The Ravens might be 6-2 but these are not the Ravens of the past that we are used to seeing. Ladarius Webb and Ray Lewis are done for the season. Even though T-Sizzle is back in the huddle for the defense, he is probably about 60%. The Ravens average less than 27 minutes in time of possession per game. Even though Ray Rice is averaging 4.7 yards per carry and has scored 6 TD’s, Flacco is throwing the ball almost 70% of the time. Cam Cameron needs to run the ball more. The Ravens are 4-0 at home and Flacco plays much better there. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS.
MIAMI -6 OVER TENNESSEE (44) – The Dolphins gave up a record setting 433 passing yards by Andrew Luck last week in Indy. That was by far the most passing yards Miami has given up all year long. This week they take on a Titan ballclub that has some problems. The entire team is on notice after Bud Adams went publish with a “put up or shut up” declaration last week after the game. They players have said they’ll answer with better play for their HC Mike Munchak. They face a Miami team that is much better than their 4-4 record. Even though I’d love to take Miami, the better team here, I’m going to pass. I can’t imagine that Jake Locker after sitting a month will be ready for a Dolphin defense that can make some plays. However, the 6 points will make me avoid this one. PASS.
ATLANTA -2.5 OVER NEW ORLEANS (52.5) – These two teams are far apart talent wise and post season wise. New Orleans lost at home to a rookie QB in his first NFL game and haven’t really recovered nor had the personnel to do so. THE SAINTS ARE THE FIRST TEAM SINCE 1950 TO GIVE UP 400 YARDS PLUS 8 GAMES IN A ROW! Since then, however, the Saints have beaten Philly and San Diego at home. Except for their first 3 games (all losses), their schedule has gotten tougher. Today they go against the only undefeated team in the league. Atlanta’s offense and defense has performed well all season long. They’ve looked vulnerable at times but somehow have managed to come out on top each time. Make no mistake about it, today is the Saints playoff game. Atlanta is as big a division opponent as they play each year and if they lose this game they will go to 3-6, pretty much done. Drew Brees has been Drew Brees most of the season and is starting to get some run support from Thomas, Ingram, and Ivory. Brees’s record against the Falcons is 10-2. Darren Sproles is out again with a broken hand this week, which might not be a bad thing. The Saints have won 3 out of their last 4 games. They beat Tampa Bay IN TAMPA which isn’t an easy thing to do. However, a trip to Denver and Peyton Manning ended with a 20 point loss. New Orleans will test the Falcons defense more than any other team besides Denver they’ve played this season. This veteran team seems to be very comfortable on the road this season winning by an average of 15 points this season there. Michael Turner should be well rested and will carry the ball at least 20 times this game against a Saints team giving up 5.3 yards per carry on the ground. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE FALCONS AND THE OVER HERE FOR 5 STARS. WTH??
DENVER -4 OVER CAROLIINA (47) – Denver looks headed for the postseason behind Peyton Manning and a pretty good defense. Carolina comes off of a big win on the road against Washington after they fired their GM a couple of weeks ago. The Broncos have won 4 out of their last 5 game, with a loss coming against New England where nobody wins anyway. Two road wins in San Diego and Cincinnati says they’ll be ready for this game in Charlotte against a very moody Cam Newton. The Panthers MUST run the football effectively to give Newton time to throw the ball downfield. Steve Smith caught his first TD pass of the season last week. The Panthers have been in every game but one this season. If the Panthers lose this game they go to 2-7 which would pretty much eliminate them from the postseason. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME EVEN THOUGH I’M PRETTY CONFIDENT PEYTON MANNING WILL LEAD THIS DENVER TEAM TO THEIR 6TH WIN OF THE SEASON.
TAMPA BAY -3 OVER SAN DIEGO (47) – San Diego is 5-0 against the Bucs in Tampa. However, the Bucs have scored 28 plus points four games in a row for the first time EVER! Rookie HC Greg Schiano has these guys in Tampa believing! They’re drinking the kool aid! They’re not playing much defense but they never take their foot off the pedal either. When two 4-4 teams meet at the halfway point of a season, it’s a big game. San Diego really hasn’t beaten ANYONE so far this season. Neither have the Bucs except Minnesota on the road two weeks ago. They come home after two big road wins and play a reeling Chargers team. If the Chargers don’t make the playoffs, say goodbye to Norv Turner and possibly his GM also. THIS COULD BE A VERY HIGH SCORING GAME IF THE WEATHER IS GOOD. TAKE THE BUCS AND THE TOTAL FOR 4 STARS.
GIANTS -4 OVER CINCINNATI (49) – Benglas WR A.J. Green has been talking plenty of smack this week about the Giants secondary. He’s caught a TD in 7 games in a row, but still, shut up! Second year QB Andy Dalton has had problems throwing the ball down the field this season. After winning 4 in a row and 6 out of 7 games, the Giants look vulnerable again. Last season just about this time the Giants went on a 4 game bender. They came back to, well, win the Super Bowl but I don’t think Coughlin and company want to see the losses again. The HOME TEAM HAS WON THIS GAME EVERY TIME THEY’VE PLAYED EACH OTHER. I look for things to change today because personally, I don’t think Cincinnati is any good. However, even though the G-men are on the road where they are usually spectacular, I don’t think they’re playing well and Eli looks like the storm put him into a funk. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME.
SEATTLE -6 OVER JETS (38.5) – If you like the Jets at all here, play them. 6 points is a lot of points for a team in desperate need of a win. This marks the first time that Mark Sanchez EVER faces Pete Carroll his old coach from USC. The Jets are being outscored in EVERY quarter. This game is easy for me however to handicap. Too much defense for the Seahawks and too little offense for the Jets. Don’t see them doing much in Seattle where the Hawks are 4-0. Rookie QB Russell Wilson gives the Seahawks something different and exciting to draw from. RB Marshawn Lynch has rushed for 881 yards and a 4.7 yard average. The Jets can’t stop the run and this week their top tackler is out of the game. In my opinion, the Jet are getting a couple of extra points here and I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME.
DALLAS -2.5 AT PHILLY (44.5) – This line has moved dramatically to the Cowboys side. They ARE the better team here and they ARE on the road where their fans and their patterns usually have them playing well there. Eagles QB Mike Vick is being assaulted on a regular basis in the pocket. His offensive line is depleted and horrible right now. The Cowboys, even though their defense has some holes in it because of injury, should bring enough pressure to give Vick problems. The Eagles have gone 6 weeks without a win. This division rivalry should get them excited enough to play hard, but will playing hard bring them a win? I doubt it. This is probably the worst record that these two teams have played each other in their recent history. Last season the Cowboys were SWEPT by the Eagles. The Cowboys have lost 4 out of their last 5 games this season. The Cowboys schedule has been BRUTAL! The only good news here is that SOMEONE HAS TO WIN! I’M GOING TO TAKE THE OVER HERE FOR 3 STARS. I’M ALSO TAKING DALLAS BECAUSE I PREFER THEM ON THE ROAD.
SAN FRANCISCO -12.5 OVER ST. LOUIS (38.5) – I still think the 49ers have the best team in the NFC. Coming off a bye week, I don’t see the NIners slowing down here. They were pounding the ball with their power running game before the bye week and they’ll be pounding the ball today. St. Louis is coming off a trip to England (where they got their asses kicked) and a bye week. Danny Amendola should get the start at WR for the Rams. The Rams schedule has been BRUTAL so far this season and playing the Niners on the road isn’t going to be easy. The Niners also haven’t lost at home to an NFC West opponent since 2008. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME. TOO MANY POINTS.
CHICAGO -1.5 OVER HOUSTON (39.5) – This game could obviously, but not IMO, be a Super Bowl Preview this season. The Bears have been playing extremely well, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The Bears have 7 defensive touchdowns so far this season. Jay Cutler has settled down (for now) and seems to be directing his offense properly. This is Chicago’s best start since 2006. The Texans haven’t allowed a rushing TD in 11 games dating back to last season. The Bears have the best turnover ratio in the league. Too teams rated GOOD in BHS ratings. Sit back and enjoy. The game could go either way. Houston more consistent. The Bears defense more intimidating. PASS.