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DENVER -4 AT CINCINATTI (48) – The Bengals seem to be getting worse and worse as the season plays on.  The Bengals face Peyton Manning who has a lifetime record of 7-0 vs. them.  They’ve lost three in a row and mix a bye week in there. Peyton is the first QB to throw for 3 TD’s and 300 yards four games in a row since Steve Young in 1998.  Bengals pass defense is giving up a 67% completion rate and that’s an AVERAGE. Now they face maybe the best QB in NFL history who is just getting warmed up with his new team. Manning has a 109 QB rating so far this season.  He has thrown 17 TD’s and only 4 picks and they were in the same game against Atlanta early in the season.   Denver in the past 11 games in the Eastern Time Zone is 1-10.  I don’t think that Manning will have much of a problem here in Cincinnati.  Denver is the better team here and even though Cincinnati needs the game more, I don’t see it happening here.  A.J. Green has caught 7 TD passes so far from Andy Dalton but he doesn’t have much more on his side of the ball.  Their last two home games the Bengals have lost to Miami and Pittsburgh.  After losing to Atlanta and Houston, the Broncos have beaten Oakland, San Diego, and New Orleans, losing in New England also.  I’M GOING TO PLAY THE OVER HERE BUT I LIKE THE BRONCOS A LITTLE BIT.  OVER FOR 4 STARS. DENVER FOR 3 STARS.

GREEN BAY OVER ARIZONA (44.5) – The Packers host the reeling Arizona Cardinals Sunday at Lambeau Field in what could be a blowout but I know better.  First of all, everyone was on the Pack yesterday when they got blocked a punt and scored to win by a non-cover of 24-15 against Jacksonville.  So if you think I’m gonna lay 10 against a much better team like Arizona, you’re wrong.  I’m pretty sure that my early thoughts about the Packers were correct. They’re not that good this season. They still have Aaron Rodgers but they have no running back or real running game as they’ve had in past seasons.  They’ve lost to San Francisco, Seattle, and Indy. INDY!  Normally, I’d love these guys in this spot against a team traveling cross country and struggling with 4 losses in a row, but they’re just not the dynamo they’ve been in recent years.  They should be able to put a lot of pressure on Cards QB John Skelton, who isn’t nearly as elusive in the pocket as injured Kevin Kolb.  Rookie RT Bobby Massie has struggled trying to deal with ANY pash rush and the Cards have given up a league high 39 sacks already.  I still am not convinced the Packers will score enough points to cover the spread here.  Arizona has a excellent defense, the most points they’ve given up is 24 twice this season.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.

MIAMI -2 AT INDY (43) – This game could go either way. I like both of these teams. Both of their arrows are pointing up!  Andrew Luck is on schedule to throw for over 4,000 yard this season.  The Dolphins are the better team here.  I have the Colts, even though they have 4 wins so far, rated an OK—team!  I have the Dolphins rated OK+!  The Dolphins defense is MUCH better here.  Except for a 30-10 season opener at Houston, the Dolphins have been in every game this season, having won their last three in a row and lost two games before that in overtime.  New HC Joe Philbin has to be pleased.  Donald Brown came back last week from a knee injury and rushed for 80 yards on 14 carries.  That allowed the Colts to take the Titans into overtime and win last week.  Defensively, the Colts aren’t even close.  The defense is giving up 4.8 yards per carry and a 103.4 QB rating.  This should allow a conservative Miami offense to have some success.  They scored 30 points at the Jets last week.  The Colts are undefeated at home however.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME EVEN THOUGH I LOVE THE DOLPHINS PLAY THIS SEASON.T

BALTIMORE -3.5 AT CLEVELAND (42) – The Ravens have beaten the Browns 9 games in a row.  They also have a 10 game winning streak against the AFC North.  However, the Ravens defense is just a shadow of previous years, being ranked 28^th in the league right now.  These two teams are not as much different right now as you might think.  The Ravens have struggled with their defense having given up 1,000 yards rushing already this season.  They’ve lost starting CB Ladarrius Webb and Ray Lewis for the season.  They barely held on to beat the Browns at home earlier this season.  After a rough start, the Browns have won two home games in a row against Cincy and San Diego.  Both teams trail in time of possession for the season averaging just over 26 minutes of offense per game.  Coming off an embarrassing 30 point loss to the Texans then their bye week, the Ravens probably got a little healthier but better have worked on how to stop the run.  If the Browns can run the football with rookie RB Trent Richardson, they can keep this close and possibly win the game.  Also, Ravens QB Joe Flacco continues to struggle on the road compared to at home….this game is on the road.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME THOUGH I THINK CLEVELAND MIGHT PULL OUT A WIN.

HOUSTON -10 OVER BUFFALO (48) – The Bills, normally much better at home than on the road, have won 2 games this season as road warriors.  They defeated Cleveland and Arizona two weeks ago.  However, this Texans offense will create some problems for the Bills that neither of those two teams could.  The Bills have the WORST run defense in the league.  They are also giving up a 93 point QB rating.  Texans QB Matt Schaub is having a good year averaging a 93 point QB rating of his own and Arian Foster even though he’s only averaged 3.9 yards per carry, has rushed for 659 yards and 9 TD’s.  The Texans should be able to exploit the Bills defense and score some points today.  The Bills are coming off of a devastating loss to Tennessee in the final minute just before their bye week. I remember. I had the Bills as my “straight cash homey” play of the day.  They Bills, however, have a pretty good offensive threat of their own in starting RB C.J. Spiller, who is averaging 7.3 yards per carry, the most by any NFL back since Jim Brown in 1970 with at least 70 carries.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS HERE FOR 4 STARS AND TAKE THE OVER ALSO FOR 3 STARS.

WASHINGTON -3 OVER CAROLINA (48) – Both teams are still searching for their identity as a team.  The Washington Redskins offense has been stellar at times this seasosn.  The Panthers not so much.  Robert Griffin has been maybe the most exciting thing to happen to the league in a while.  Cam Newton’s sophomore season, definitely slumping.  His attitude isn’t much better as he’s thrown members of his team under the bus regularly at press conferences.  Last week in Pittsburgh the Redskins receivers had a case of the drops as RG3’s receivers couldn’t find the handle repeatedly on throws they should have caught.  Last week D’Angelo Hall was ejected from a game for arguing with officials.  MLB London Fletcher has been struggling with injuries and may be playing his last season.  Both teams’ defenses have been struggling at times especially defending the pass.  I look for a hard fought, high scoring game here in D.C. on Sunday.  Both teams need a win on Sunday or they can start preparing for the draft next season.  The Redskins will need to stop what running game the Panthers bring out as quickly as possible to have a chance to win.  Cam Newton will not be successful running OR passing if the Skins can stop the run.  The Skins are a better team this season.  I LIKE THE REDSKINS HERE.  All Pro WR Steve Smith has NOT CAUGHT A TOUCHDOWN ALL YEAR LONG!!  TAKE THE REDSKINS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS.

DETROIT -5.5 OVER JACKSONVILLE (43) – The Jaguars have been outscored 95-20 and are 0-3 in their lst 3 home games this season.  They are arguably the worst team in the league this season.  Following their bye week, the Lions are 2-1 with two big wins against Philly (on the road) and Seattle last week at home.  The Lions must continue to win and improve to make the playoffs this season in the NFC North.  Lions S Louis Delmas is out for the game with a knee injury.  WR Calvin Johnson, or Megatron as he’s known to some, may only play on third downs today because of an injury.  #2 WR Nate Burleson is out for the season.  Last week Titus Young stepped up and had a monster game for the Lions.  RB Michael Leshoure has rushed for almost 400 yards in 4 games.  The Jags defense is OK but nothing spectacular. If the Lions lose here, their season is basically over.   I LIKE DETROIT HERE FOR 3 STARS.

CHICAGO -3.5 AT TENNESSEE (43.5) – The Titans are a much better football team at home so far this season.  Last week they lost to Indy at home in OT.  Two weeks before that they beat a decent Pittsburgh team 26-23.  Three weeks before that they beat the Lions in OT 44-41.  This week one of the toughest defenses comes to town.  RB Chris Johnson is back on track, averaging 4.5 yards per carry after starting the season horrifically.  Matt Hasselbeck has a higher QB rating than Jay Cutler.  The teams stats to this point don’t even compare however.  The Titans have a SUCK BHS rating.  The Bears a GOOD rating.  After losing to Green Bay in the second game of the season, the Bears have won 5 in a row, even though the last two games have been close.  Their last two games on the road vs. Dallas and Jacksonville were won by a combined score of 75-21.  This game is screaming TRAP but I might have to take the Bears anyway.  RB’s Matt Forte and Michael Bush have run the ball well.  Bears WR Brandon Marshall has caught 50 passes already this season.  He should have some fun against a not so good pass defense of Jacksonville.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE BEARS HERE MINUS THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS.

SEATTLE -4 OVER MINNESOTA (38.5) – I’ve loved this game for a couple of weeks.  Everything looks good for the Seahawks here.  They’re at home where they’re undefeated, having beaten Dallas, Green Bay, and New England.  Minnesota is probably not as good as any of those teams.  The Vikings are cooling off after a hot start, having lost to Tampa Bay by 19 points last weekend at home, their first home loss of the season.  However, Percy Harvin has 60 receptions so far this season. RB Adrian Peterson has 775 yards rushing so far this season.   The Vikings are having problems protecting QB Christian Ponder.  Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch has been as good as anyone this year running and controlling the ball for his offense.  He has 787 yards rushing and is averaging 4.8 yards per carry.  Rookie QB Russell Wilson is playing much better at home than he is on the road.  I HAVE TO GO WITH THE SEAHAWKS HERE MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS  (STRAIGHT CASH HOMEY)

OAKLAND -1.5 OVER TAMPA BAY (47) – After their bye week the Raiders are 2-1 with their only loss being a last minute lost to the undefeated Atlanta Falcons.  Earlier this season the Raider beat the Steelers.  The Bucs are coming off some games that showed they are improving also.  They have been in EVERY GAME so far this season.  I don’t see the Raiders scoring enough early to win easily.  This game will come down to the final quarter and the team making the least amount of mistakes will probably win the game.  The Raiders have won two in a row in the Black Hole.  The Bucs travel cross country for the first time this year.  The Bucs are the better team here but anything can happen.  With records of 3-4 both teams need this game in the worst way to stay competitive for the playoffs.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME. IT COULD VERY WELL COME DOWN TO THE LAST PLAY, EVEN THOUGH LIKE I SAID BEFORE, THE BUCS ARE THE BETTER TEAM RIGHT NOW.

GIANTS -3 OVER PITTSBURGH (44.5) – I’m sorry.  The Giants don’t get any respect at all.  The Steelers are NOT the Steelers of old, even though they seem to be righting their ship as we speak.  And nobody knows better than me that the Giants are ROAD WARRIORS and don’t play as well at home for some reason.  This is the point last season when the Giants went into a 4 game slide to go to 6-6 before their great Super Bowl Run.  The Steelers have lost in Denver, lost in Tennessee,  and lost in Oakland.  I almost can’t believe that this line is just 3 points.  I’M TAKING THE GIANTS MINUS THE 3 POINTS FOR 4 STARS. I CAN’T TAKE THE LACK OF RESPECT FOR THE 2012 SUPER BOWL CHAMPS ANYMORE.

ATLANTA -3.5 OVER DALLAS (47.5) – Here’s another ridiculous line. I HAVE THE COWBOYS RATED AN OK- TEAM AND THE FALCONS NUMBER ONE IN THE LEAGUE AND A GOOD TEAM.  I HAVE TO TAKE THE FALCONS JUST BECAUSE THE NUMBER ONE TEAM IN THE LEAGUE HERE GETS NO RESPECT.  Not only do the Falcons only give up 3 ½ points here, but the majority of the betting in VEGAS is ON THE COWBOYS.  Cowboys QB Tony Romo is a turnover machine.  Falcons QB Matt Ryan is 29-4 at home. End of story.  TAKE THE FALCONS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS.  It’s a perfect storm for the Falcons here.

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ATLANTA(GOOD) -10 OVER OAKLAND (48)(suck) – The Raiders are having some problems moving the football and playing defense. That’s not what you want to hear when going up against maybe one of the top 3 teams in the league.  I have them rated as a suck team as you can see.  They’ve given up a staggering 134 QB rating so far as a team.  The Raiders are coming off a BYE week and should be able to play a little better than they did in a 37-6 loss in Denver two weeks ago.  The Raiders have only held the ball an average of 25 minutes per game on offense which means their defense is getting pounded by opposing teams defenses.  Their only win came against a weak Pittsburgh team at home three weeks ago.  Even Miami’s offense in week 2 put up 35 points on the Raiders.  The Raiders have not intercepted a pass yet during the season.  Heyward-Bey is back from his head injury and should give Carson Palmer a deep threat for a change.  The Falcons are the only 5-0 team in football and I have them currently ranked 3^rd in the league in my Power Ratings.  Even though the Falcon lost their best CB in Brent Grimes earlier this season, the Falcons pass defense has been exceptional.  I doubt the Raiders defense will have an answer for Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense in this game, especially indoors where the crowd is well trained.  Look for Tony Gonzalez to break another record this weekend and Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Michael Turner to notch up some yardage. The Falcons lead the league in turnover ratio +10 and in takeaways with 12.   I’M GOING TO GIVE ALL THE POINTS HERE AND TAKE THE FALCONS FOR 5 STARS.

BALTIMORE (good) -3 ½ OVER DALLAS (ok-) (44) –The Cowboys are averaging (surprisingly) the second fewest points scored in the league.  The Ravens defense is one of the best in the league for sure. Dallas is close to imploding from a team and an organizational standpoint.  I don’t understand how they can be so dysfunctional and have so much going for them.  They need a GM. Jerry Jones isn’t getting it done.  They probably need a head coach and possibly an OC also.  QB Tony Romo isn’t the problem as I see it. The problem is their personnel and coaching.  The Cowboys have beaten Tampa Bay and the Giants opening day and have lost to the Seahawks and the Bears at home on Monday night.  The Cowboys are coming off a BYE week. The Boys are 1-8 in their last 9 years coming off a BYE.  The Ravens offense and defense aren’t going to give them much to look forward to where the Ravens are 13-0 their last 13 games at home.  Almost kind of New England cheater numbers.  The Ravens had an off week, especially their defense, last week against the Chiefs and barely won. I’M GOING TO TAKE THIS VALUE OF -3 ½ HERE AND TAKE THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS.

CINCINNATI (OK)-3 ½ OVER CLEVELAND (SUCK)(43) – The Bengals are 3-2 but beating Cleveland, Washington, and Jacksonville isn’t going to get them to the postseason. Last week they lost at home to the Dolphins. If they look forward to the Steelers next week, they’ll lose again this week to the Browns, who they only beat by a touchdown the first time.  The Bengals have a better, more experienced QB in Andy Dalton.  On the defensive side of the ball, Pro Bowl DT Geno Atkins has 6 sacks already this season.  The Browns’ rookie QB Brandon Weeden, although he looks to be improving, has a long way to go.  Opposing teams have controlled the ball for over 34 minutes per game against the Browns.  Look for Cincy to right the ship this week in a division game on the road where they seem to be comfortable.  In 5 games the Browns defense has given up over 700 yards rushing.  Look for that to continue and Andy Dalton to go to A.J. Green and company and control this game.  The Browns get their best defensive player back this week in CB Joe Haden who sat out 4 games with a suspension for substance abuse. If the Browns are ever going to get it going, it might be this week against the Bengals.  Rookie RB Trent Richardson has scored 4 TD’s in 4 games.  Cincy’s defense isn’t that good overall. Look for him to get his 5^th touchdown today.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS CLOSE GAME.

MIAMI -3 ½(OK) OVER ST. LOUIS(OK+)(38) – The Rams are improving. Everyone can see that. With Jeff Fisher at the helm, they’re going to continue to improve, but it’s going to be a process.  They’ve won 3 games this season, but all three wins have come at home, in their own indoor stadium.  Their only game outside was in Chicago where they were handled by the Bears 23-6.  This week they travel to Miami, where the Dolphins are coming home off of a big win in Cincinnati to bring their record to 2-3.  First year HC Joe Philbin has brought in a new offense and a rookie QB in Ryan Tannehill.  Reggie Bush has played well this season and gives Philbin’s offense some balance.  A big part of St. Louis’ offense has been QB Sam Bradford throwing to WR Danny Amendola.  Unfortunately for the Rams, Amendola will be out for a minimum of 4 weeks with an injury.  St. Louis RB Steven Jackson still has a sore groin and has been playing but not very effectively.  I like the chances of the Dolphins at home this weekend, where they’ve beaten the Rams the past 4 meetings dating back to 1983.  They lead the series 9-2. The only problem I see for the Dolphins, which is a big one, is their kicker has missed all 4 FG’s from 47 yards or more.  The Rams’ rookie kicker Greg Zuerlein is 13 for 13 and hasn’t missed from over 50 yards this season.  Miami WR Brian Hartline has stepped up to become a force moving the football for the Dolphins.   I’M STILL GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.  The number is just too good, although it wouldn’t surprise me if the Dolphins win and cover.

COLTS(OK–) +3 ½ AT JETS(OK–) (44) – Two teams going in different directions meet this week at the TV studio called Met Life Stadium in New Rutherford, New Jersey.  The Jets have lost two weeks in a row at home to two very good teams in the Houston Texans and the San Francisco 49ers.  The problem the Jets have had is stopping the run.  I doubt the Colts will be able to match the previous 5 teams the Jets have played in this regard.  That should force the Colts to rely on the arm of rookie QB Andrew Luck, who is coming off a great performance last week beating the Packers at home in an emotion filled second half.  With Darelle Revis out for the season, the Jets are not nearly as strong of a defense as they’ve been in the past.  Colts great receiver Reggie Wayne will be covered mostly by Antonio Cromartie, who has done a great job so far this season covering receivers.  Mark Sanchez has the worst numbers in the entire league for a starting QB with a 66.6 QB rating and having completed only 48% of his passes.  He should get well a little bit against the Colts defense.  They have given up a 10.82 QB rating so far this year.  Jets C Nick Mangold is questionable and probably a game time decision but don’t be surprised to see him go.  If the Jets lose this game to a Colts team that who are only playing their 2^nd game on the road with a rookie QB, there is going to be hell to pay with the media in New York.  I see a close game with the Jets probably winning here by about a touchdown, but honestly, they’ve played so badly, it’s hard to say what’s going to happen here.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.

PHILLY -3 ½ (OK) OVER DETROIT (OK-)(47.5) – After beating the Giants two weeks ago, the Eagles lost a tough one to the Steelers last week on the road.  This week they come home to play a Detroit team that has struggled at times this year trying to move the football and play defense.  The Lions have allowed a 101.3 QB rating through their first four games and are coming off a bye week.  The Lions, however, have given up a ton of yardage and a couple of scores on special teams this year.  The Lions have yet to intercept a pass this season. They have only caused three total turnovers all season long.   Matt Stafford has struggled to throw this season.  This game will probably come down to turnovers. When Mike Vick doesn’t turn the ball over, the Eagles win.  I don’t see the Lions putting enough pressure on Vick to cause those turnovers Sunday.   The Eagles defensive backs have played well this season and I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see the Eagles win this game at home.  Most of the money is on the Lions because they’re coming off a bye week and they need the win much more than the Eagles.  The Lions need the game some kind of terrible or they’ll end up 1-4 at the start of a season with Minnesota playing extremely well so far. As I’ve said before, the Packers are going nowhere this season.   I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the Eagles played well and covered.

TAMPA BAY -4(OK) OVER KANSAS CITY(OK–) (40.5) – Tampa Bay comes off a tough home loss and a bye week to face a Kansas City team that played the Ravens tough at home last week but only put up 6 points on the scoreboard.  KC QB Matt Cassel was injured last week and Brady Quinn gets the start for the Chiefs.  He hasn’t started a game since 2009.  Quinn can’t be any worse than Cassel has been so far this season.  Cassel has been horrible. First year Tampa Bay coach Greg Schiano has implemented a run first offense and his defense has played very tough against the run.  If it was up to the defense, the Bucs would be undefeated.  The Chiefs are last in the league with a -15 turnover margin.  Kansas City has a very strong running game at times but hasn’t been able to stop the turnovers.  I see the very physical game with both teams trying to establish control of the clock with their running game.  I find it hard to believe that Brady Quinn could lead a team this bad to a win in one game.  I’m going to use one of my personal rules of handicapping here and NEVER play a LOUSY team. Neither of these teams are doing much at all so I’LL PASS ON THIS GAME.  Tampa should have a slight edge at home.

ARIZONA(OK+) -4 OVER BUFFALO(OK–) (44) Since taking a 21-7 lead a couple of weeks ago against New England, the Bills have been outscored 90-10. Buffalo has maybe the worst defense in the NFL this season.  They’ve given up 97 points their last two games, even though those two teams are New England and San Francisco.  The Bills give up an AVERAGE of 5.7 yards per carry.  Arizona has virtually NO running game but this could be an opportunity for them to get something going.  They’ve lost their top two RB’s in Beanie Wells and Ryan Williams to injury. Rod Stephens-Howling gets the start at RB against a team that can be run on.  The Cards defense is awesome at times.  Cards QB Kevin Kolb has played well at times and should be able to do what he wants throwing to WR Larry Fitzgerald and a good host of others.  The key for Arizona will be the left side of their offensive line. If they can give QB Kevin Kolb time, they’ll have some success.  The key according to HC Ken Whisenhunt is running the ball effectively.   No matter who is in the game, they need to pound the football effectively.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE CARDS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS.

NEW ENGLAND(GOOD) -3 ½ OVER SEATTLE(OK+) (44) – The Pats offense has scored 118 points in last 3 games. Brady is getting warmed up. They are rushing for an incredible 165 yards per game.  Their defense is overachieving.  Aaron Hernandez may be back this week.  The problem they’ll have this week is they travel and go up against a Seattle team that is overachieving right now.  Seattle has the top overall defense in the league.  Rookie QB Russell Wilson isn’t setting the world on fire yet but he’s not hurting his team either.  The Seahawks have yet to lose at home having beaten Tony Romo and Aaron Rodgers already this year.  The New England OL is banged up a bit.  Logan Mankins may not start this week.  You can rush Brady and get to him.  Earlier this season, Arizona came to Foxboro and beat the Pats sacking Brady 4 times.  Three weeks ago the Seahawks sacked the Packers’ Aaron Rodgers 8 times in the first half.  If the Seahawks pass rushers can penetrate and throw Brady to the ground a few times, Seattle could pull the upset.  Things don’t get any easier for the Seahawks after this week’s game.  Next week they travel to San Francisco to play the 49ers, then the next week to Detroit to play the Lions.  The Pats host the Jets next week in Foxboro, then travel to London to play the Rams there.  This game may be bigger for the Seahawks than for the Pats. The Pats have a very friendly schedule and the Seahawks schedule is a bitch.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME BECAUSE IT’S JUST TOO CLOSE TO CALL, but a Seattle win wouldn’t surprise me.

SAN FRANCISCO (VG) -6 ½ OVER GIANTS(OK++) (45.5) –  I almost never play against the Giants on the road, but this game is different.  Last season the Giants ended the 49ers season in their place winning the NFC championship game.  If not for a couple of turnovers, the game could have lasted another hour or two in overtime.   I’m sure that the Niners have been grinding over this game for a long time.  HC Jim Harbaugh is not only going to not let his team lose this game, but he is going to put a hurt on the Giants like nobody else has. These are the two most efficient offenses in the league this season.  The last two weeks the 49ers have outscored their opponents 79-3.  Last week the Giants spotted the lowly Cleveland Browns a 14-0 lead, then came back and scored 41 points.  Except for a hiccup in Minnesota, where the 49ers lost to the Vikings, they’ve dominated their opponents and their defense and their running game is tops in the league.  Even with a loss, I have them rated as the top team in the NFL.  They’ve rushed for 979 yards already this season. Look for the 49ers to pound the football and tired out the Giants defense and slow down their pass rush.  The Niners are AVERAGING 6.1 yards per carry.  The Giants are averaging 4.8 yards per carry.  Eli Manning is throwing at a 96 QB rating clip.  Alex Smith, slightly better at 108.7.   The Giants have a few guys out on the defensive side of the ball for this game.  Their bet DB Kenny Phillips is out. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE 49ERS IN MY NFL PLAY OF THE WEEK FOR 5 STARS.  I’M GOING TO HEDGE THE OVER FOR 3 STARS.

WASHINGTON -1 OVER MINNESOTA (45) – Last week Robert Griffin made a dumb play and instead of throwing the ball away, he slid into contact at the sideline and sustained a concussion.  He is supposed to play tomorrow having passed all of his concussion tests this week and taken snaps most of the week.  The Redskins can pretty much score with anyone, but their defense leaves a lot to be desired, especially in the defensive backfield.  They’ve given up 13 TD passes in 5 games.  Last week at home, the Skins played the Falcons tough but allowed the Falcons to control the clock and the ball and rush and pass for plenty of yards to win.  Minnesota is a more conservative team.  Minny QB Christian Ponder has looked great so far this season and his athleticism along with his maturity as a signal caller has everyone in the Vikings camp excited.  Having beaten the 49ers, who I personally think are the best team in the league, was no small task.  Their only loss came IN Indy 23-20 earlier this season.  The Redskins have rushed for 813 yards and 5.1 yards per carry. They should really run the ball more but their coaching staff is pretty pass happy so they’ll continue to throw and lose probably.  Their OL run blocks MUCH BETTER than the pass block.  Minnesota’s DL only allows 3.2 yards per carry though.  Minny RB Adrian Peterson should get 20 or more carries against the Skins Sunday.  It’s going to be a situation where whichever team can control and move the ball without turning it over, will win.  This game is pretty much EVEN. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME AND JUST ENJOY WATCHING IT.

HOUSTON(GOOD) -3 ½ OVER GREEN BAY(OK) (47.5) – The Packers are struggling. I’ve said all along this season that they wouldn’t make the playoffs and they weren’t the team that was so strong last season before they lost to the Giants in the playoffs.  Now, they’re beat up on their offensive line and can’t protect their QB Aaron Rodgers, who is athletic enough to get some running yards on occasion, but really doesn’t have any time to set up and throw.  The Packers have given up a league leading 21 sacks.  They signed Cedric Benson as a free agent RB and he went down for the season a couple of weeks ago.  They really don’t have another back to go in there.  The Texans are undefeated and have handled all of their opponents.  Green Bay is as good as anyone they’ve played and last week they lost their best linebacker, Brian Cushing, for the season with a knee injury.  The betting line is solid at a great value for the Texans at -3.5. I really think that they’ll be fine on the defensive side of the ball and give Green Bay’s OLine all kinds of problems.  Rodgers could put some points on the board for the Packers but will their defense be able to stop Matt Schaub and this very balanced offense of the Texans.  I think not.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS  FOR 4 STARS.  I’M ALSO GOING TO HEDGE WITH THE OVER FOR 5 STARS ALSO.

NHB PLAYS FOR THE DAY

ATLANTA -10 OVER OAKLAND 4 STARS

BALTIMORE -3 ½ OVER DALLAS                  4 STARS

ARIZONA -4 OVER BUFFALO                        4 STARS
SAN FRANCISCO  49ERS- -6 ½ OVER GIANTS  5 STARS**
MINNESOTA +1 OVER REDSKINS                            4 STARS
HOUSTON -3 ½ OVER GREEN BAY         4 STARS
INDY-JETS OVER 44 POINTS                         5 STARS
GIANTS OVER 45 POINTS                                3 STARS

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ST. LOUIS +1 ½OVER ARIZONA (38) – Well, if you called Thursday for this play, you were one of the 15% in the country who were happy after the end of the game.  Arizona’s 4-0 start wasn’t an illusion but the Rams had won both home games against decent teams and just added the Cardinals to their list, winning 17-3.  Zona QB Kevin Kolb was sacked 8 times during the game and has set an NFL mark of 16 sacks in two games. Will he be sore? Oh yeah, he’s sore, but he’ll be back if HC Ken Whisenhunt wants him there.  It’s nice to have ONE WIN going into the weekend. WINNER!!

MIAMI +3 AT CINCINNATI (45) – The Dolphins have lost two OT games in a row and I see some good things when I watch them play. Their defense, although it’s not ranked real high, has performed well most of the time. They’ve only given up 227 yards in 4 games rushing and their pass defense is adequate.  Reggie Bush is questionable for the game but if he plays, and I’m pretty sure he will, the Bengals will have their hands full with the Miami offense.  Ryan Tannehill finally got off against the Cards defense, which is a good defense, and threw for over 400 yards last week.  WR Brian Hartline has caught 25 passes for 455 yards so far this season and a touchdown.  I love the underdog Dolphins in Cincy against a Bengals team that I think is grossly overrated.  The Bengals defense is not good.  They’re giving up 5.4 yards a carry and opposing QB’s have a 102 QB rating.  I watched the Redskins lose to them but move the ball almost at will against them.  The Bengals really haven’t beaten anyone yet!  Cleveland, Washington, and Jacksonville are going nowhere this season.  TAKE THE DOLPHINS WHO CAN TACKLE TO BEAT THE BENGALS IN A CLOSE HIGH SCORING GAME. CHECK THE WEATHER BEFORE TAKING THE OVER. I LIKE THE DOLPHINS FOR 3 STARS HERE AND WEATHER PERMITTING THE OVER ALSO.

GREEN BAY -7 AT INDIANAPOLIS (48) – This game could be interesting if the Colts can move the football, not turn it over, and play a little defense.  That’s a lot to ask of a weak but slowly improving team.  The good news is they are at home but the Packers faithful will be everywhere in the stands for this game and coming off a nailbiter against the Saints last week in New Orleans, I’m not really sure what kind of team we’re looking at in Green Bay.  Personally, I think they’re terribly overrated, as is this line from Vegas of 7 points.  Colts offensive coordinator Bruce Arians takes over as head coach after HC Chuck Pagano was dignosed with leukemia this past week.  How the Colts respond to this will be important. Pagano is a defensive coach and he will be missed on that side of the ball, but as a cancer survivor himself, he knows what his coach is going through.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME FEELING THAT THERE ARE JUST TOO MANY UNKNOWNS GOING INTO THE GAME, BUT I’LL BE ROOTING FOR ANDREW LUCK AND HIS TEAMMATES IN THIS ONE.

BALTIMORE – 6 ½ AT KANSAS CITY (47 ½) – The Ravens have had a couple of days extra to prepare and rest up for this road trip to K.C. These two teams are far apart when it comes to pecking order.  Personally, I don’t think the Chiefs are any good.  Sure, they have some talent. Jamaal Charles is averaging 5.8 yards a carry.  Dwayne Bowe is a solid receiver. But besides those two, I see nothing to be excited about no matter where the Chiefs play.  Unless GM Scott Paoli and HC Romeo Crennel, former Patriot employees, start cheating like the Pats have and probably still do, they’re just going to be an average team at best.  EVERYONE who has left the safe haven of Foxboro after coaching in New England has not been successful. Matt Cassel, who got a big contract in K.C. after having BETTER numbers than Tom Brady a few years ago when Brady was injured, has a QB rating of 70.4.  He has 5 TD’s and 7 picks.  The Chiefs have been crushed by Buffalo and San Diego, both average teams this season at best.  Their only win comes against Drew Brees and his beleaguered Saints team who EVERYONE has beaten this season.  6 ½ points is a lot of points to spot on the road but I’m going to do it anyway.  The Ravens have Joe Flacco and his offense who can move the football against most anybody.  Ray Rice can carry the ball 10 or 35 times and dominate a game.  Their defensive backfield may be the best in the NFL right now.  I’M TAKING THE RAVENS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS AGASINT THIS LOUSY CHIEFS TEAM.

MINNESOTA – 5 ½ OVER TENNESSEE (44 ½) – The Vikings are slowly but surely improving their squad and gaining an identity as a tough team, especially at home.  Two weeks ago they beat a team I picked to be in the Super Bowl this season and one of the top two teams in the league in the 49ers.  Last week on the heels of that win, they traveled to Ford Field in Detroit and physically beat up on the Lions who many thought would win the North Division of the NFC this season.  Christian Ponder is supposed to start this week even though he’s knicked up a bit and if Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin continue to make big plays, the Titans shouldn’t be much of an obstacle for the Vikings to take their record to 4-1.   Jake Locker is out for this game so Matt Hasselbeck will get the start at QB for Tennessee. Tennessee has been outscored on the road 76-24 this season.  I don’t see them getting well against the Vikings.  The Vikings DL has 12 sacks so far and Jared Allen only has 2 of them.  Look for Allen to get off this weekend.  I’M TAKING THE VIKINGS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS HERE.

GIANTS -8 OVER CLEVELAND (45) – The line started at -13 but moved to -8 during the week.  The Giants have many starters out for this game and even though the Browns aren’t going anywhere this season, they have showed that they play hard and have some players.  Rookie QB Brandon Weeden has struggled most of the season.  All of it isn’t his fault. One of his best receivers, Mohammed Massaquoi has hardly played this season, now out with a hamstring injury.  Rookie RB Trent Richardson has played well but is averaging only 3.5 yards per carry with 3 TD’s.  Richardson is also Weeden’s leading receiver.  Last week the Browns hung tough with the Ravens in Baltimore.  That isn’t done easily.  The majority of the money in Vegas is on the Browns believe it or not.  WR’s Ramses Barden and Hakeem Nicks are both out this week for the Giants.  On the defense, Jayron Hosley and Kenny Phillips are both out also. I’M GONNA PASS ON THIS GAME EVEN THOUGH ELI WILL PROBABLY BRING A WIN HOME FOR THE FANS .  I don’t like to play the Giants when they’re at home to begin with.

PITTSBURGH -3 ½ OVER PHILLY (43) – Last week Michael Vick and the Eagles held on to defeat the Giants in Philly in a game that could have gone either way.  Vick looked good because he didn’t turn the ball over, even though he did nothing outstanding.  I think that’s the Mike Vick Andy Reid wants to see this season.  Pittsburgh coming off the bye week has Harrison, Polamulu, and Mendenhall coming back this week from injuries.  If they’re not ready for a team like the Eagles now, they may never be ready.  Another loss takes the Steelers to a 1-3 record, somewhere they have probably never been in recent years.  I usually like Phily on the road but this week there are some facts that stick out to me.  First of all, the Steelers have gone 38 games without losing two games in a row.  They’ve also won 9 out of their last 10 home games.  However, Todd Haley is not the answer for the offense as an offensive coordinator.  I’m not sure why they hired him to work with Roethlisberger but I’ll be surprised if it works out.  I’m also not convinced the return of two players who can’t be in very good shape, is going to improve what so far has been a below average Pittsburgh D.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME.

ATLANTA -3 AT WASHINGTON (48 ½) – This doesn’t look like a very good matchup for the Redskins this weekend.  The Falcons, led by QB Matt Ryan, are 4-0 and their offense has been near impossible to stop. They beat the Chargers two weeks ago by a 27-3 margin in San Diego on grass. This week they travel to Washington to play on grass against a team that’s defensive backfield has had substantial problems trying to defend the pass at all.  Now Washington faces an excellent passing game of Ryan to Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez.  Ryan has thrown 11 TD’s and only two picks.  The Redskins have given up 11 TD’s already this season.  The weather is supposed to be miserable so that might help the Redskins.  The Redskins have rushed for 702 yards in 4 games and Robert Griffin has thrown at a 103.2 QB rating clip.  Last week against Carolina, the Falcons came from behind to win the game scoring with less than a minute left from their own 1 yard line.  If they let RG3 and the Skins stay close, anything can happen.  Check the weather but I’m GONNA PASS ON THIS GAME.

CAROLINA -3 OVER SEATTLE (42.5) – For Carolina to have a chance in this game, they’ll need to unleash some kind of running game against a defense that is quick and athletic in Seattle.  Seattle beat Dallas and Green Bay, then lost a tough game in St. Louis last week.  This week they come east to Charlotte in what could be some nasty weather. The Seahawks are gonna have to run the football successfully to set up any kind of a passing game from Russell Wilson.  The return of RB Jonathan Stewart helps the Panthers and Cam Newton should find some passing lanes like he did last week against the Falcons.  If Marshawn Lynch can move the chains, it will make a win more likely for Seattle.  Lynch is key.  Check the weather tomorrow for this game. I’M GONNA PASS ON THIS GAME FOR SURE.

CHICAGO -5 ½ AT JACKSONVILLE (42.5) – Except for a 2^nd week blip in the radar against a Packers team that sacked Jay Cutler 8 times in the first half, the Bears have played well in their 3 wins this season.  Last Monday night in Dallas, they picked off Tony Romo 5 times and beat the Cowboys 34-18.  This week they go against the worst offense in the league in Jacksonville.  Maurice Jones-Drew IS the offense for the Jags getting the ball over half the time either running or receiving.  I doubt that Jacksonville can spread the ball enough around to keep the Bears from making sure Jones-Drew doesn’t hurt them too badly. Matt Forte should have a field day against the Jags.   All the money is on the Bears in Vegas both money and straight up. I’M GONNA PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE EVERY TIME I LIKE THE BEARS, THEY SCREW ME.

NEW ENGLAND -6 ½ OVER DENVER (52) – Denver’s losses are to two undefeated teams, the Texans and the Falcons.  The Pats two losses are by a total of 3 points to Arizona (who was undefeated) and the Ravens on a last second field goal.  The Pats return home fresh off a 52-28 victory over the Bills on the road.  In the past two games they’ve scored a total of 82 points.  The Pats also have discovered their running game again with two RB’s last week who rushed for 247 yards.  Bill Belichick is 5-10 lifetime against the Broncos.  Peyton Manning has thrown for 8 TD’s in his last two games against New England, but usually, the Pats have had their way with him.   Peyton has struggled with going downfield since he’s come back. His arm strength is OK, but he really doesn’t have that many receivers who can stretch the field.  However, the Pats defense isn’t all that great.  I can see Brady scoring on the Denver defense and the Broncos trying to keep it close.  I’m going to take the Pats MINUS THE POINTS natural here for4 stars.  Weather permitting it might be a good hedge to take the over here for a little bit.

SAN FRANCISCO -10 OVER BUFFALO (45) – The 49ers are coming off a cross country two weeks where they lost in Minnesota, then stayed in Ohio and practiced and DESTROYED the New York Jets last week.  After a hiccup against the Minnesota Vikings two weeks ago, I look for San Francisco to flex some muscle and some talent at home for the fans this week.  Buffalo is going to have to replace their right guard and left tackle this week after they went out last week with injuries.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is OK at QB, but he’ll have his hands full in the Bay with this 49ers defense.  The Bills might get Fred Jackson back and RB C.J. Spiller can run the football, but a team that loses to the Jets by 20 isn’t going to stay close to this 49ers team. I’M GONNA TAKE THE 49ERS FOR 5 STARS HERE.

NEW ORLEANS -3 ½ OVER SAN DIEGO (53.5) – The Saints have had a rough time. Let’s leave it at that. Everyone knows the story and Bounty-Gate and all of that. What a lot of people don’t know is that Drew Brees made most of this happen to himself, he and his agent.  Brees is just starting to look like he’s ready for the season behind center.  They looked better last week against Green Bay than they have all season long.  The Chargers have beaten teams with a combined record of 3-9 so far. The Saints will still have a full house here for the Chargers.  Look for the Saints to win their first game of the season, but there’s a chance they won’t cover the spread here.  I also think that Vegas has made adjustments for that win here.  I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME BUT TAKE THE OVER HERE FOR 5 STARS.  Phillip Rivers will put plenty of numbers on the board for San Diego and the hedge covers you with the over if they pull out a win.  TAKE THE OVER HERE FOR 5 STARS.