Plays for Week 9

The Bills not surprisingly ended their drought in Canada by shutting out the punchless Redskins 23-0 last week. The Skins couldn’t do anything and by last count were sacked 10 times on offense. This is from a defense that had only 6 or 7 sacks to that point in the season. One thing that has me concerned is the health of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick that was only hit one time trying to throw last week, but the time he was hit he was absolutely DRILLED in the chest by London Fletcher of the Skins. How he got up, I have no idea, but evidently after the soreness set in from the hit, he’s been limited this week in practice. That could be a problem. He is their guy. The Jets come in off their bye week and really need a win badly or they drop back down to .500 before the game with New England next week. The Jets are 4-0 at home and have yet to win on the road. The Bills go back to Rich Stadium where they are 3-0 so far this season. I have Buffalo rated as a GOOD TEAM and I have the Jets rated as just OK. The 1 ½ point line is a phenomenal value for any handicapper and I would be STUPID not to take the Bills here, but the QB situation has me concerned. Honestly, they are at least a 4 point favorite here. However, if the Jets are going to get going sooner or later on the road and into the playoffs this year, they have to start somewhere. It IS a short trip to Buffalo from New York. They really haven’t beaten anyone any good except their big comeback opening day against Dallas and even Rex would say that had some luck involved. There should be plenty of points scored in this game. Usually the Bills give up yardage on the ground and don’t pressure the quarterback very well. Sanchez and his running game if they play turnover free should put some points on the board. Plaxico Burress is questionable for this game. The Bills seem to put points up every week. I’m going to TAKE BUFFALO MINUS THE TINY LINE AND ALSO THE OVER FOR 4 STARS AS A HEDGE. The Bills are definitely the better team here. After this game the Bills go on the road for 3 straight games so they really need this game just as badly as the Jets do. Rex coached teams have averaged over 250 yards on the ground in their 4 previous meetings. I look for the Jets to run the football more than they have so far this year.
DALLAS (3-4) – 11 OVE R SEATTLE (2-5) (44 ½ )

The Cowboys took a huge step backwards last week when they showed up in Philly and looked like they didn’t prepare at all for the Eagles. They were terrible and NEVER in the game. The Cowboys schedule has been tough to this point and isn’t going to get much better. If they can’t beat the Seahawks at home this weekend, they should start looking at making changes for next year already. On the positive side last week, the Cowboys DeMarcus Ware had 4 sacks. That is the first time that’s been done since Charles Haley 20 years ago. I have the Seahawks rated as a OK—TEAM and the Cowboys rated as a OK+ team. The Boys are at home and coming off a horrible loss. However, the Seahawks have shown they can travel and win earlier this year with a win against the New York Giants. To take the Seahawks lightly would be a BIG MISTAKE! What a difference a week makes. Two weeks ago the Cowboys beat the winless (at the time) Rams team 34-7, then lost by the same score to Philly last week. It seems that the Eagles are getting ready to make a run. A far cry from everyone in Philly wanting Andy Reid and Juan Castillo fired a couple of weeks ago. The Seahawks at times have looked decent this year, but last week they were crushed at home against the Cincinnati Bengals and their defense. Tavaris Jackson should get the start for the Seahawks this week and Marshawn Lynch is healthy. Sean Lee, the great linebacker for the Cowboys is out for the game. Mike Jenkins and Felix Jones are still out. Cowboy RB Tashard Choice was waived this past week and picked up. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE THE NUMBER IS ACCURATE AND ANYTHING COULD HAPPEN IN THE LAST 5 MINUTES OF THE GAME. PASS. SEE TONY ROMO!
HOUSTON (5-3) -10 ½ OVER CLEVELAND (3-4) (41)

The Browns have MANY problems but their biggest problem is no Peyton Hillis (for whatever reason) and NO offense. Their defense is pretty good but they can’t score on offense. Colt McCoy looks lost on the field at times but to his credit has only thrown 5 picks so far this season. Peyton Hillis (surprise) pulled a hammy and is OUT for the game. So is Mario Hardesty. That means that the Browns will probably be starting a practice team player or two in the backfield. Early in the week it looked like Andre Johnson might be back for the Texans but he is now OUT for the game. They already have lost their best defensive lineman, Mario Williams for the season, but his replacement has played well. In my opinion, the difference in the Texans so far this season ahs been Wade Phillips and what he’s done to this defense. Not only can the Texans score points, but NOW they can play some defense too. I have CLEVELAND RATED AS AN OK- TEAM. I HAVE THE TEXANS, even though their record is just 5-3, RATED AS A GOOD TEAM. They are at home and should handle the Browns in this matchup easily, even though the Browns have a good defense. The Texans have two of the best running backs in the league in Arian Foster and Ben Tate. The Texans are 28-2 under Gary Kubiak’s tenure when they run the ball at least 30 times. Hey, RUN THE FREAKING BALL 30 TIMES GARY, OK!! I look for the Texans to beat the Browns and COVER THE POINTSPREAD. I’M TAKING THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. The Cleveland offense absolutely sucks.
ATLANTA (4-3) – 7 OVER INDY (0-8) (44½)

The last time I watched the Falcons play, they looked like a much better team than earlier this season. Matt Ryan owns an NFL best 26-6 records in domed stadiums. This week they play in a domed stadium. They also play against probably the WORST team in the league. The Falcons defensive backs have played 3 good games in a row. They should be able to keep Curtis Painter and the Colts between the 20’s and out of the end zone, but let’s not speak too quickly. This is probably ONE of the few games the Colts have a chance of keeping close and possibly winning. The question here is WHY would they want to win? Andrew Luck is possibly the best QB to come out of college in many years and if the Colts win 2 or 3 or 4 games, they’ve screwed their chance of getting a successor to Peyton Manning, who in my opinion, may not be coming back at all. Offensively, the Colts still have some weapons, they just can’t keep anyone from scoring when they turn the ball over to them. I HAVE THE FALCONS RATED AS AN OK TEAM. I HAVE THE COLTS RATED AS A SUCK TEAM. The Colts non-secondary gives up a 72.3% passing percentage. They give up a 112.2 QB rating per game. They’re giving up 33 points per game!! I would love to take the Colts here because all of the money and straight plays are on the Falcons AND the Colts are at home, but they are SO FREAKING BAD! The Colts allow the opposing offenses to control the ball an AVERAGE of 35 minutes per game. I’m going to PASS ON THE GAME because the side I like is the Colts side here and I’d be OUT OF MY DAMN MIND TO PLAY THE COLTS FOR ANY REASON HERE. My name is NOT Joe Theisman (rymes with Heisman but not really) It’s not like the Falcons can afford to lose this game. A loss here to the pathetic Colts hurts their playoff chances terribly I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME AND JUST WATCH A FEW SHOTS OF IT ON RED ZONE HOPEFULLY.
KANSAS CITY (4-3) -4 OVER MIAMI (0-7) (40½)

Wow, maybe one of the greatest turnarounds in the history of NFL, K.C. going from 0-3 and looking HORRIBLE to winning 4 straight and beating NORV, WHICH I CALLED BY THE WAY! Talk about a really weird line here. The Chiefs just beat San Diego, supposedly a decent team as a home dog this past week, and now play at home again against a winless team in the Dolphins who are…maybe in the Andrew Luck competition for sure and they are only 4 point favorites. This line almost says the two teams are exactly the same if they played on a neutral field. I’d say that’s not true. There’s no way the Dolphins are as good as the Chiefs but maybe the close game with the Giants last week has everyone fooled. That doesn’t fool me. The Giants usually cruise and don’t play well at home anyway. I know that, but I guess Vegas doesn’t so we’ll take advantage of that. Personally, it absolutely looks like a trap, BUT, value is value and the fans in K.C. (and the head coaches’ beard) are saying GO CHIEFS, GO CHIEFS, GO CHIEFS! Matt Cassel and head coach Todd Haley seem to do great while they are cursing at each other and hey, if you keep winning, keep cursing at each other. Haley seems to be a decent game day coach. I like what I see (even though he’s a great golfer) and he’s making GM Paoli, who I’m not sold on, look good. Many “pundits” are saying that the Chiefs may have the best team in the West. I say it’s early and that division is ALWAYS up for grabs, but they certainly have looked good lately. Miami RB Daniel Thomas is still questionable with a bad hamstring and even though Reggie Bush looked decent last week against the Giants (they’re run defense isn’t good), the Chiefs should be tougher especially in their place. Their fans always make problems for the offensive snap count situation. Here’s the problem for the Dolphins as I see it. Matt Moore has thrown just ONE TD pass all season long. The Dolphins defense has given up 14 TD passes so far this season. Do the math. That has a lot to do with their 0-7 record. The Chiefs have too many weapons throwing the ball for the Dolphins to be able to stop them especially at home. The Chiefs have a 1-2 punch of Jackie Battle and Dexter McCluster going right now. These kids are playing some ball. Dwayne Bowe and Steve Breaston are providing Cassel with good targets down the field. Bowe is a monster. Miami, on the other hand, has struggled trying to throw the ball. Brandon Marshall has only caught one TD all season long. If Miami is ever going to get into the winner’s column, they’ll have to get their receivers more involved. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE CHIEFS MINUS THE POINTS FOR A SMALL PLAY HERE, 3 STARS.

NEW ORLEANS (5-3) -8 OVER TAMPA BAY ((4-3) (50)

The Saints are coming off a big letdown game against the Rams who beat them soundly in St. Louis for their first win of the season. Three weeks ago the Saints lost to the Bucs in Tampa by a score of 26-20. This is a game New Orleans must win to get back on top of their division and square up their series with the rival Bucs. The Bucs can’t afford to lose here either and if they win, they will SWEEP the Saints this year. Drew Brees has struggled at times this year with interceptions and must get his command of his throws back. A lot of his problems stem from pass protection. He lost his starting center to retirement two weeks ago. Even though he’s thrown for 2,746 yards so far this year, he’s been picked off 10 times. Injuries haven’t helped either. The Saints defense has only picked off 4 of their opponents’ passes all season. Gregg Williams’ defense has also given up a whopping 5.5 yards per carry this year on the ground. This defense is NOT very good. They will have to do a much better job on the defensive side of the ball to take the pressure off of Brees feeling like he has to score every time he touches the ball. No matter what happens this week, I see the Saints AND the Bucs scoring a lot of points this week inside the Super Dome in New Orleans. I’m going to play the OVER 50 POINTS FOR 5 STARS THIS WEEK. Tampa is coming off a bye week after their trip to London where they didn’t show up to play till the second half. This is going to be a hard played game on both sides of the ball for both teams. Great game to watch.
SAN FRANCISCO (6-1) -4 OVER SKINS (3-4) (37½)

Jim Harbaugh, besides having to learn how to shake hands the “NFL way” has been exactly what the franchise needed in a head coach this year. They could be undefeated had it not been for a late meltdown early in the season against Dallas. They can run the ball as good as anyone in the league right now. Frank Gore has averaged over 120 yards per game over the past four starts. Alex Smith has finally found the guy that can show him how to play QB in the NFL and be successful. He has one of the best pass receiving tight ends in the league in Vernon Davis from Maryland. The Redskins played their worst game of the year last week getting shut out in Toronto by the Bills. It was the first time EVER that Mike Shanahan has been shut out in the NFL. John Beck, who will be starting his 3rd game in a row with the Redskins WAS SACKED 10 TIMES last week. That’s almost hard to believe but injuries on the offensive line have left the Skins in a terrible situation in run blocking and especially pass protection. The Redskins defense miraculously only gave up 23 points last week having been on the field for two thirds of the game. London Fletcher had a bad hamstring and somehow made 20 tackles. That’s about 19 more than anyone else made. This should be a low scoring affair because I see the 49ers coming out running the football successfully and the Redskins fighting to just be able to score points. Anything else would be a surprise believe me. I HAVE THE 49ERS RATED AS A GOOD TEAM. I HAVE THE SKINS RATED AS AN OK—TEAM. TAKE THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. The 49ers have beaten Cincinnati, Philly, Tampa Bay, and Detroit. All of these teams are substantially better than the Skins. Sadly, I’ll be at the game wishing Dan Snyder had hired Jim Harbaugh away from Stanford instead of bringing in Mike Shanahan and his son Kyle. I wish I was the GM of this team. I’d have a winner again in 2 or 3 years. Trickle down effect from the owner’s box. He sucks. They suck.
OAKLAND (4-3) -7 OVER DENVER (2-5) (42½)

The Raiders are home after their bye week and a 28-0 thrashing at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs at home the week before. The Raiders are a team in transition since they made the deal for Carson Palmer to be their starting QB and QB of the future. Darren McFadden, the Raiders star running back is out. The Raiders just signed Palmer’s good friend and former Bengal teammate T.J. Housyourdaddy and that can’t hurt, but how much can it help? This game is a complete toss up because nobody (even me) knows what kind of effect a QB who has only been working out for two weeks is going to have, no matter how good he is. There’s no way I’m giving anyone advice to take a team as an 7 point favorite with all of these changes and coming off a horrible performance, even if a bye week is included in there. Tim Tebow is on double secret probation at Faber, I mean Denver, and is probably the most talked about young man in the world and he hasn’t killed anyone. He’s the QB of the Broncos. The big question here is, Is he the future QB of the Broncos. Another bad performance will probably put Tebow on the bench and mean another Denver loss. Maybe John Fox will only win 2 games here in Denver just like he did last year in Carolina. Willis McGahee is still out so Ball and Moreno will provide what running yardage Denver will have. The offensive line of the Broncos is having a hard time pass blocking and with McGahee out, Tebow is their best runner. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE IT’S JUST PLAIN BUTT UGLY AND THERE ARE FAR TOO MANY UNKNOWNS. PASS.
TENNESSEE (4-3) -3 OVER CINCINNATI (5-2) (41½)

After beating a pitiful Cleveland team a month ago, the Titans have really done nothing since. Houston came to Nashville two weeks ago and DESTROYED the Titans. After signing a new contract, Chris Johnson is averaging 2.8 yards per carry. I’d be brain dead by now, but I think at age 57 I could run for 2.8 yards per carry. I would at least go north and south and run as hard as I can. Matt Hasselbeck is a capable QB and has looked very good so far this season but the Titans NEED TO RUN THE FOOTBALL TO BE EFFECTIVE! Javon Ringer, C.J.’s backup, should get more touches this week. Coach Mike Munchak is losing patience with Johnson and won’t take much more. Cincinncati, on the other hand, is the better team here even though the Titans for some reason are the favorite. I’m tempted here to go with rookie Andy Dalton and his great defense on the Bengals side of the ball, but everyone else in the country is already doing that and the Titans DO NEED A WIN BADLY. The Bengals are playing well, but their schedule has been weak. Besides losing to a good 49ers team 13-8 and beating a tough Buffalo team 23-20, they haven’t played anyone really. HOWEVER, THEY PLAY THE STEELERS AND THE RAVENS 4 TIMES DURING THEIR LAST 8 GAMES OF THE SEASON! Having said that, the Bengals need this win desperately. Tennessee is a good place for them to come in to and get a win. They get Cedrick Benson back from his one game suspension this week and rookie WR A.J. Green has been awesome. He and Dalton will provide Bengals fans some hope for a long while. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE IT JUST SMELLS LIKE A TRAP. Everyone in the country feels like I do and is betting on the Bengals. If C.J. gets it together and they can keep the Bengals defense on the field for a while, the Titans can come out with a victory here. They certainly need it worse than the Bengals do right now AND they’re at home. PASS.
ST. LOUIS (1-6) +3 AT ARIZONA (1-6) (41)

It’s finally official. We know who the WORST ANNOUNCING CREW FOR FOX SPORTS TV ARE THIS YEAR!! IT’S SAM ROSEN AND CHAD PENNINGTON BECAUSE THEY ARE ANNOUNCING THIS GAME! A combined 2-12 record for these two teams makes this the worst game of the week for sure. Last week A.J. Feeley somehow guided the Rams to a 31-21 victory over a Saints team that came in 13½ point favorites. This was the Rams first win of the season. It was horrible not just because we were on the Saints. It was horrible because Drew Brees looked like he was confused and that usually never happens. Steven Jackson totaled 191 yards from scrimmage against a Saints defense that is slowly playing New Orleans out of the playoff hunt. I expect Steven will show up again this week and start pounding the Cardinals linebackers and defensive backs with that big body of his early in the game. The Cardinals since winning on opening day against the Carolina Panthers, have not figured out to come out on top since. The past two weeks they played well against Pittsburgh and Baltimore so a step down in class this week could come at a good time. The big question here is are they healthy enough? The Cardinals offense has Beanie Wells to run the ball and Larry Fitzgerald and company to move through the air, but Kevin Kolb, who signed a huge deal with the Cards before this season, is struggling because they’re having a hard time playing catch up. Now it looks like Kolb won’t be playing this game on Sunday because of turf toe. John Skelton will get the start for Arizona, a second year backup that honestly can’t play much worse than Kolb has so far. If the Cardinals can’t beat the Rams this week at home, I would think big changes might be put in place in Arizona for the future. The Cardinals defense has given up over 30 points in their past 4 games with a bye week thrown in there for good measure. That’s not a good thing. If Arizona showed me any chance of improving, then I’d be all over them here getting 2 points at home against a DOME team that had not won a game until last week. Sam Bradford might get the start for the Rams and that will be a good thing for them. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME.
NEW ENGLAND (5-2) -9 OVER GIANTS (5-2) (51)

This is going to be a very interesting game to watch because there is SO much going on here. The Pats are coming off losing to the Steelers last week where they looked pretty bad. The Giants are coming off a comeback victory over the weak Miami Dolphins but they only really played a half of football. I have the GIANTS RATED AS AN OK TEAM. THE PATS ARE OK+. Eli Manning and Tom Brady are both having two of the best years so far in the league for QB’s averaging over 100 QB rating per game. The Giants begin a 6 week EXTREMELY TOUGH STRETCH OF GAMES here in New England. Their next 5 weeks are at San Francisco, Philly, at New Orleans, Green Bay, and at Dallas. That is BRUTAL. Brandon Jacobs is talking so much smack that it’s obvious he wants out of New York, but he will definitely get more touches this week but how effective will he be? Eli’s receivers have looked good this year but Hakeem Nicks is OUT for this game. RB Ahmad Bradshaw is OUT for the game. C David Baas may be OUT. DE Jean Pierre-Paul may be OUT with a concussion. Cruz and Manningham both are capable WR’s and will do fine but will they be able to keep up with Pats? Brandon Jacobs gets the start, but will he be able to back up all the smack he talks? The question here for the Giants, and they are on the road which is where I prefer them, is can they outscore the Pats? After watching the Pats last week, you’d have to say they have a chance, but I’m sure that Brady and Belichick will come back this week with a strong game plan. Wes Welker is banged up. Curtis Edelmen is allegedly groping girls in night clubs. Is Law Firm healthy? It’s like everyone I hear on TV is saying. I doubt the Pats will lose two in a row, but who knows? Either way, it’s going to be a barnburner. I LOVE THE OVER 51 POINTS HERE FOR 5 STARS (WATCH THE WEATHER)I’m PASSING ON THE SPREAD LINE BECAUSE EVEN THOUGH IT’S AN AWAY GAME, I SEE BRADY TOTALLY OUTDUELING ELI IN THIS ONE, ESPECIALLY WITH SOME OF HIS BIG WEAPONS OUT FOR THE GAME. PATS WILL WIN.
GREEN BAY (7-0) -5 ½ AT SAN DIEGO (4-3)(51)

Normally I’d love the over here and I may take it late anyway, but I’m not sure that San Diego can score enough points even at home to make that a smart play here. Green Bay is the top team in the league here. They’re coming off a bye week and hopefully they’ve healed up a bit and everyone is still on top of their game. THE PACKERS ARE THE BEST TEAM IN THE NFL AND ARE RATED A GOOD TEAM. THE CHARGERS ARE JUST OK. I really don’t see any way that the Chargers can stay with the Packers in this game. They’ve lost two games in a row to the Chiefs and the Jets. They haven’t been home for a month and should get some kind of bump from that, but their last game at home they beat the winless Miami Dolphins 27-17. Normally this would be a great spot for a play on San Diego getting so many points at home. The problem here is that I don’t think San Diego is that good. And they are hurt. Dielman is still out. Matthews and Floyd are out. Shaun Phillips is out. They’re banged up! It’s a weak division. Green Bay would have to look pretty dysfunctional here to not beat the Chargers by at least a touchdown. Last week Matt Cassel carved up the Chargers secondary in the second half to win. His line gave him plenty of time to throw. I don’t really see anything changing quickly for the Chargers. Aaron Rodgers has 20 TD’s with just 3 picks. Phillip Rivers has 7 TD’s with 11 picks. The Chargers defense isn’t nearly as good as the Packers’ D. You do the math. I’M TAKING THE PACKERS MINUST THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. Chargers coming off short week isn’t the week to start looking at Norv’s team to cover, let alone to win.
PITTSBURGH (6-2) -3 OVER BALTIMORE (5-2) (42)

You know this game is gonna come down to defense but is it really? Big Ben has been hot lately leading the Steelers to winning 4 in a row. He’s thrown for over 300 yards two games in a row. He’s on a pace to break his own team record this season. Last week they dominated a New England team that’s pretty damn good. They lost to the Ravens on opening day (I was there) and it was a horrible loss but the lockout hurt teams differently and the Steelers were one of the NFL teams it did hurt. They didn’t even look like they had a chance the entire game. They have made some changes, adjusted to some injuries, and now they look completely different. The Ravens, on the other hand, have gone the wrong direction since the opener. Even though they beat the Jets and Houston at home, they lost on national TV to Jacksonville and barely came back to win last week against a weak Cardinals team that has only won one game so far this season. How they answer this week will say a lot about their team. Personally, I’d hate to come into Pittsburgh and play against the Steelers right now if I were Harbaugh and the Ravens. Lamar Woodley is OUT, but they’re getting the toughest defensive player in the league back this week in James Harrison. Harrison’s return will give the Steelers a jump start for sure. This, like the first meeting, is basically a playoff game. Both teams need to establish the run or have some success with their short passing game to be successful. Hines Ward may play. Legursky’s still OUT. WR Emmanuel Sanders’ mother passed away and he’s probably OUT also. I’m going to pass on the game straight up but TAKE THE OVER 42 POINTS FOR 4 STARS. The winner here may score over 30. I’m leaning towards the Steelers so, EITHER EMAIL ME OR CALL ME AT 1-800-466-4748 AND CHECK ON MY PLAY FOR THIS GAME ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SHOW OR JUST AFTER THE SHOW!!
PHILLY (3-4) -7 ½ OVER CHICAGO (4-3) (47)

It’s hard to believe that this Eagles team still is below .500. A couple of weeks ago, everyone wanted Andy Reid’s job. They were in the process of trying to find something that would work defensively for all their talent. Last week they seemed to find it in a 34-7 shallacking of the Cowboys who looked like they have NO chance to do anything this year. That’s how good the defense for the Eagles looked. They also got a super performance out of LeSean McCoy who is looking like the best running back in the NFC right now. You hear that Mr. Forte. Seriously, two of the best running backs in the league face off at Lincoln Financial in Philly on Monday night. Personally, I don’t see how the Bears can match up with them on both sides of the ball. Add to that the truth that every time Mike Vick pulls the ball down and runs with it he AVERAGES over 8 yards per carry. Vick again is the difference here. Defensively, the Eagles pass rush has improved dramatically. They’ve sacked the opposing QB’s 22 times this season so far and Cutler has BEEN sacked 21 times. If they get the pressure they probably will, I doubt Cutler will have much time to throw down the field. Matt Forte and his ability to carve out smaller pieces of yardage will be the difference here. If the Eagles defense can bottle up the Bears offense in the box, then it will be a long night for the Bears. The line here is 7½ which is a lot of points. I’m going to PASS on the game at present and see what kind of action seems to be on here before Monday. Also, the health of Julius Peppers is key here also. If he plays, a much better chance for the Bears. PASS ON THE GAME.

Plays for Week 8

BALTIMORE (4-2) -13 OVER ARIZONA (1-5) (43 )

The Ravens are coming off maybe the worst offensive game I’ve ever seen them play on Monday night and Arizona comes off a home loss to the improving Pittsburgh Steelers that showed they had a lot to work on during the week. Joe Flacco was horrible but it wasn’t entirely his fault. His receivers got no separation and they weren’t able to run the football against a tough front 7 of Jacksonville. The chances of Blaine Gabbert being on the winning side of a game against the Ravens defense were like 1 in 100 but he came away with the win. The Ravens defense also had a hard time stopping Maurice Jones-Drew in the second half even though he fumbled 3 times in the first half. Arizona is having a hard time on offense period. Kevin Kolb so far hasn’t proven to be the guy they thought he was going to be but it isn’t entirely his fault. Larry Fitzgerald will always be a weapon in this offense, but not if he’s double and triple teamed all the time. Early Doucet is OK. Todd Heap has been banged up. Beanie Wells has scored 6 touchdowns and at times has looked great, but he’s banged up with a hamstring that comes and goes. They’ve had some problems in the clubhouse with attitude and things like that for the first time I can remember. The Cards defense has given up a 94 QB rating so far and that should help Flacco and Baltimore this weekend. I look for Baltimore to come out after a good week of practice and establish the run and beat the weak secondary of the Cards from the start of the game. The Ravens defense is one of the top 3 in the league. I’m going TO PASS ON THE GAME BECAUSE 13 POINTS FOR THIS RAVENS OFFENSE IS JUST TOO MANY! All of a sudden, I’m not really sure what their offense looks like.

CAROLINA (2-5) -3 ½ OVER MINNESOTA (1-6) (47)

Carolina and their rookie star QB Cam Newton are fresh of beating a Redskins team that is headed the wrong direction fast. Cam didn’t throw for the yardage he has so far this season, but he didn’t turn the ball over and looked great with his decision making. D’Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart both looked great running the football. Newton himself has run for 7 touchdowns this season and thrown for another 8. The Panther defense leaves a lot to be desired but they are improving. I liked what I saw in Charlotte last week with the Panthers. The Vikings started their first round draft pick Christian Ponder from Florida State last week and although his completion percentage was low, he showed leadership qualities that haven’t been seen this year so far with Donovan McNabb. I love this kid and he has a future in the NFL. Adrian Peterson has scored 8 touchdowns so far this season and rushed for 712 yards for a 4.9 yard average. He is a force that Carolina will have to prepare for. I doubt they’ll stop him. If they do, it will open up the passing lanes for the rookie Ponder and he may have a big day. I like the OVER in this game because both teams should be able to score. Matching these two rookies up in this game to me is going to make for a very interesting projection into the future of both of these teams. Whoever has the best defense, and usually that’s Minnesota, may very well win the game. Minnesota, however will have to make sure they have a plan for limiting Newton’s favorite target, All Pro Steve Smith, if they are going to win. TAKE THE OVER 44 ½ POINTS IN THIS GAME FOR 5 STARS. LOVE IT. CHECK THE WEATHER. There should be a lot of scoring in this game. I really think that Ponder and Newton will light it up.

HOUSTON (4-3) -9 ½ OVER JACKSONVILLE (2-5) (40 ½)

I was extremely surprised to see the Texans get it together so well last week in a big hurry banged up with their two best players on the bench, to beat up a home team in the Titans. It wasn’t even a decent game. Houston DESTROYED the Titans last week and after watching the game, it was uglier than the score looked. The Jaguars are coming off their game of the year where they UPSET the visiting Baltimore Ravens and showed the league that at least they have a good defense. A lot of that result was because of the ineptitude of the Ravens offense, but don’t take anything away from the Jags. They played a great game on both sides of the ball. Matt Schaub who was banged up pretty badly the week before, got his game together and looked great. Arian Foster, their All Pro running back is healthy again and last week the Titans paid the price. There’s a chance that Andre Johnson, their All Pro wide out will be able to play this week, but even if he doesn’t, they’ve figured out a way to move the football without him. In their two division games so far this year, the Texans have outscored Indy and Tennessee by a score of 75-14. I see that continuing this week. Jacksonville may come off this short week with some confidence, but I don’t think that will help in Houston this week. I’M TAKING THE TEXANS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS AGAINST THE JAGS.

GIANTS (4-2) -9 ½ OVER MIAMI (0-6) (42)

Everyone that knows me knows I like what I see in the Giants so far this season. After 6 games, they are 4-2 and coming off a bye week. Brandon Jacobs is running his mouth even though he can’t get out on the field and back it up. Justin Tuck is back healthy and will play this week. We also know that until a couple of weeks ago, Tony Sparano, the browbeat head coach who has his house on the market hadn’t EVER lost to a New York team till the Jets a couple of weeks ago. We think that has something to do with his ties to the underworld (oh wrong Tony), but after losing to the Jets a couple of weeks ago, they look like they’re ready for the draft. I know that Sparano won’t give up. He is a decent coach, but this team is doing NOTHING. They’ve only scored 15 points a game so far but have played a pretty good schedule so far. They’re offense has only converted 3 out of their last 25 third downs in the past two games. Their pass defense is giving up a HUGE 102.3 rating with 12 TD’s and only 2 picks. The Giants, on the other hand, have some problems of their own even though I like where they are right now. Eli Manning and the offense are scoring points this year. Their schedule has been a bit soft so far but they’ve beaten Philly and Buffalo. The Dolphins had a late 4th quarter meltdown to Tim Tebow and the Broncos last week and just added more pressure to the already sticky situation. They Dolphins DO have a great rookie running back in Thomas but he can’t do it on his own. If the Giants were on the road, I’d be all over this game because they, as you know from following me, ARE THE ROAD WARRIORS OF THE NFL!! However, they’re at home, and I’m also scared they might overlook this Dolphins team and come out flat and make Sparano’s relatives in New York happy. It’s not like the Giants can’t do this. We’ve seen it. However, they go on the road next week to New England (yikes) and then San Francisco which will possibly make them underdogs in both games. THEY ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO WIN THIS GAME TO HAVE A CHANCE TO WIN THEIR DIVISION THIS YEAR!! DO YOU HEAR ME GIANTS?? I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME BUT THE GIANTS WILL WIN. I’M JUST NOT SURE BY HOW MANY POINTS.

NEW ORLEANS (5-2) -13 ½ OVER ST. LOUIS (0-6) (48)

These two teams couldn’t be more different. The Rams coached by a lame duck Steve Spagnuolo, are horrible. They are showing next to nothing on offense and defense. I’m not sure who they’ve been drafting for the last three or four years, but I don’t see the improvement. They have an excellent starting QB in Sam Bradford but he can’t do it without some receivers who can get some separation from the guys on defense who are covering them. They haven’t been able to do that all year long. And on top of that, Bradford isn’t going to play this week again. A.J. Feely gets the start again this week. I HAVE THE RAMS RATED AS A SUCK TEAM. The Saints are an OK+++ team that is just under a G rating. Even though we’re indoors in St. Louis, I think if the Saints score early and often, that they will take the home fans out of the game early and maybe the boo birds will show up. The Rams do have Steven Jackson, who seems to be healthy, but they’ll stack the line of scrimmage with Gregg Williams’ game plan and make Feely throw the ball to beat them. I don’t see that happening. Brandon Lloyd is a decent, not good, addition to the Rams but he’ll take some time to get in sync with Feely and/or Bradford anyway. The Saints are coming off putting off a 60 burger on the pitiful Colts. I have no reason they won’t do that to another pitiful team this week in the Rams. I don’t see the Saints losing their focus this week because they’ll probably have their assistant call the plays again with Sean Payton upstairs watching. It seemed to work last week. Drew Brees has throw 18 TD passes so far this season. The entire Rams team has thrown just 3 TD’s all year. I’M TAKING THE SAINTS MINUST THE POINTS FOR JUST 3 STARS AND THE OVER FOR 5 STARS. LOVE THE OVER.

TENNESSEE (3-3) -8½ OVER INDY (0-7) (44)

These are two teams that aren’t in a good mood. The Colts are coming off the 3rd worst loss in NFL history. A game that I personally thought the team quit on their coach. They swear they didn’t, but I’ve been around a long time and late in the game I saw nothing on the Indy side of the ball. Curtis Painter has a 85.2 QB rating which is decent, but their defense is like a sieve. Their opponents AVERAGE over 35 minutes of possession every game so it’s hard for the Indy defense to have any chance at all of stopping the opposing offenses they face. Head Coach Jim Caldwell is embarrassed and he should be, but it’s really not his fault. I feel that Bill Poillan is more responsible for the personnel that he has to put onto the field. Sure, there are some injuries, but EVERYONE has injuries. The Titans, on the other side of the ball this week, seemed to forget to prepare for their game at home against a good Houston team who kicked the crap out of them last week 41-7. The Titans can’t run the football for some reason, even though they’ve paid their star running back Chris Johnson a TON of money. He still doesn’t look like the same RB I’ve seen for the last few years. Matt Hasselbeck has two or three receivers that can get open and he has shown in the past he can be productive, but if he has problems THIS week, he and the Titans have worse problems than we think. The only really good game the Titans have played so far this year was a win against a Ravens team coming off a big win against the Steelers opening day. I’m not sure how good this team is. I was on the Titans last week and they fooled me for sure. They may come back this week and kick the crap out of a purely pitiful excuse of a team but I’m not recommending that play. I kind of like the OVER here but not committed till Sunday either way.

BUFFALO (4-2) -4 ½ OVER WASHINGTON (3-3) (45 ½)

This is a game I’ve loved since the start. Let’s take a real look at the Redskins season so far. Since an impressive opening day win at home against the Giants, they really haven’t looked that good. They barely beat the Cards, they blew a winnable game in Dallas, they barely beat a lousy Rams team, and Philly and Carolina handled them. They really are not very good. Add to that the fact that so many good starters are injured and you get a complete breakdown waiting to happen. I can’t imagine that they will have ANY chance to travel to Canada to play the upstart and talented Bills team and WIN. It just won’t happen. But the Bills as it’s been pointed out really don’t have much of a home field advantage and are 0-3 at this field. It will be interesting to watch John Beck try to pull this offense together and move the ball, and he may do it some, but I don’t see the Skins defense shutting down the Bills talented offense. The Bills are rated as an OK++ team. The Skins are OK and they are on the road. Bills’ QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is having a good year, as a matter of fact today he just signed a new contract giving him a 5 year extension. Good move by Bills. His QB rating is 92.7. His running game is acquiring a very impressive 5.2 yards per carry with Fred Jackson from tiny Coe College in Iowa being an early MVP candidate. He has caught 24 passes for 279 yards and rushed for 601 yards and a 5.7 yard AVERAGE. That tells me Chan Gailey has it going on in Buffalo. He may be the best OC in the game that’s a head coach. Sorry Norv! The only chance the Skins have is if the Bills come out flat after their Bye week and just forget to play. TAKE BUFFALO MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. I LOVE THIS GAME AND I LOVE THE BILLS. I’M TAKING THE OVER IN THIS GAME ALSO FOR 3 STARS.

DETROIT (5-2) -3 OVER DENVER (2-4) (41 ½)

This is one very interesting matchup this week. Both teams have some strange things going on with their teams and ANYTHING can happen. First of all, the Lions are reeling a bit with injuries, bad handshakes, and two home losses in a row in a place that was supposed to be a BIG home field advantage with the noise. Now they’re on the road against a Bronco team that did nothing last week till late in the 4th quarter when they were “saved” by Tim Tebow, an onside kick, and some heroics. Detroit QB Matt Stafford has a sore ankle and is day to day but should start. He won’t be 100% though. Their starting RB Javid Best is out. Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams will split the carries at RB for the Lions. They still have the best WR in the league in Calvin Johnson and he has collected 10 TD passes so far. The Broncos have had severe problems with their pass coverage so far this season, giving up a 104.2 QB rating AVERAGE to their opponents so far and have picked off just 3 passes all season. Willis McGahee, the Denver RB who has done a great job filling in so far this season, is banged up, and is out for the game. Tim Tebow of course gets the start for the Broncos and it will be interesting to see just how he’s treated if they don’t jump out to the lead early in the game. Last week he was HORRIBLE until late in the 4th quarter. The Lions are the better team here, but the big question here is can they sustain the momentum and the scoring they had in their first 5 games of the season? Will they be able to go into Mile High and be able to score enough and play enough defense to keep Tebow from saving the day again? This could be the most interesting game of the weekend. I really think it comes down to the Broncos defense and pressure they’re able to put on a banged up Matt Stafford. If they can force him into some bad throws and shut down any running game that Detroit has, this could be a GREAT GAME. Believe it or not, I’M TAKING THE BRONCOS AT HOME GETTING THE POINTS AND TIM TEBOW (not a surprise)FOR JUST 3 STARS.

NEW ENGLAND (5-1) -2 ½ AT PITTSBURGH (5-2) (52½)

Make no mistake about it. This IS a playoff game. These may be the best two teams in the AFC this year. This game may not be the one that will advance their team to the next round or put them in the Super Bowl this year, but this game will have as much to PREPARE both teams for the next time they meet as anything they will do in practice or any film they will watch. Tom Brady is 7-1 in his last 8 games against Pittsburgh. Brady and New England continue to break offensive records on a regular basis, but that’s not what is going to put the Pats deep into the playoffs this year. The improvement of their DEFENSE in my opinion, has been what they may have been making the most progress with so far this season. The last three games they’ve given up just 19, 21, and 16 points to Oakland, the Jets, and Dallas, three very decent football teams. That is VERY impressive. Now they come off a bye week which when you talk about the Pats is a big deal. Belichick is 8-0 coming off his bye weeks with the Pats. Two weeks of preparation for Brady and Belichick’s defense is scary enough for most opposing teams. They’ve gotten a little healthier and they’ll be ready to go into Heinz Field and try to come out of there with a W. The Steelers, on the side of the ball, have looked pretty good also since laying an egg opening day in Baltimore. After a close 17-10 loss in Houston, they’ve won three in a row against three not so good teams in Tennessee, Jacksonville, and Arizona. Now they prepare for the Pats at home. Generally speaking, the Steelers, even with their great fans, play about the same at home as they do on the road. The Pats have won in Heinz Field before, thus the 3 point favorite hat their wearing. The total for the game is 52. It probably will come down to who can play the best defense will win the game, but I see both teams coming out firing with both barrels on offense. Both of these QB’s are future Hall of Famers. Ben has a 96.1 QB rating and Brady has a 104.8 rating. Both of these guys will have their receiving corps ready to move down the field and put some points on the board, thus the OVER again. I’M TAKING THE OVER 52 POINTS IF THE WEATHER IS OK FOR 5 STARS. I’M PASSING ON THE GAME STRAIGHT. 3 POINTS IS PERFECT. Best game of the weekend probably.

SAN FRANCISCO (5-1) -9 OVER CLEVELAND (3-3) (38 ½)

The 49ers seem to be for real. Jim Harbaugh has lit a fire under these guys and has them playing some great football at the present time. They could easily be 6-0 right now. I have them rated 2nd in the league in my power rating behind the Packers. The Browns, on the other hand, are somehow 3-3 having beaten three teams I have had rated currently or at some time this season as a SUCK team. Petyon Hillis is supposed to get the start this week if he’s healthy, which we’re trying to figure out who knows when that is. Colt McCoy, who is a decent QB, is having some problems because his receiving corps is suspect at best. They have to figure out a way to get the ball into their playmakers’ hands and they really don’t have many playmakers. I’d say Josh Cribbs and Hillis ARE their two playmakers. Their defense is OK but their secondary has only 4 picks this season. The 49ers are the best team the Browns have faced all season. I doubt they’ll be able to run the ball with too much success and will have a problem throwing the ball also. Alex Smith seems to have found his coach in Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh is showing his confidence in Smith and so are his players. He has a 95.2 QB rating and has only thrown 2 picks all season long. They also support Smith with a running game that averages 4.5 yards per carry AND they’ve scored 7 touchdowns. Their defense on the other side of the ball, have given up 0 touchdowns on the ground so far this season. They are tough as hell. RB Frank Gore has been healthy for the most part this season and has scored 4 TD’s this season. He is an excellent running back and if they can keep him healthy, it will just accentuate their passing game with receivers like Vernon Davis, David Crabtree, and Tracy Morgan. I’M TAKING THE 49ERS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. THIS IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THEM TO CRUSH A TEAM RIGHT AFTER THEIR BYE WEEK.

CINCINNATI (4-2) -1 ½ OVER SEATTLE (2-4) (37½)

The Bengals are a pretty damn good team. They lost to a very good 49ers team and somehow early this season lost to Denver at Mile High. They did beat Buffalo three weeks ago at home which was a big deal and a big win. Marvin Lewis seems to have found a formula for this team that works this year. They have a rookie QB from TCU, Andy Dalton, calling the signals and he’s doing a great job. He’s more mature than most rookies and whoever did the scouting and signing of this kid needs a raise in salary. I doubt he’ll get it from the Brown family though. Cedrick Benson is getting the ball regularly and even though he’s not ripping of big chunks of yardage, he’s gotr 458 yards and averaging just under 4 yards per carry. Their leading receiver is another rookie A.J. Green, who has 4 TD’s and is averaging 15.8 yards per catch. Coming off a bye week, they travel to Seattle, which is a tough place to play and weather could be a problem this weekend. The Seahawk defense against the run is as good as anyone in the league. Seattle’s biggest problem is putting up enough points to score with their opponents. Charlie Whitehurst should get the start again this week. Marshawn Lynch may not play this week, so Leon Washington may get the snaps at RB. Personally, I hate this game because I like Cincy, but Seattle can pull off a good effort from time to time. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME.

PHILLY (2-4) -3 OVER DALLAS (3-3) (48½)

This is the game which will determine, in my opinion, one of the two frontrunners for the NFC East this season. The Skins with all their injuries and continued struggle with the offense is going nowhere. The Giants are probably going to be there late in the season. The Cowboys are probably the better team here, but in Philly, the Eagles HAVE to win. They have no choice. Going 2-5 pretty would mean they would need to finish 7-2. The Eagles get Trent Cole back this week. Vick as usual is the difference AND the wild card for the Eagles. The Eagle secondary MUST play better than they have. RB DeMarco Murray is coming off a record setting 254 yard performance last week. They’ll need he and Tanard Choice to come up with big plays and keep drives alive in this one. Jason Witten for years has OWNED the Eagles in their games. There will be some pressure coming from both defensive fronts on the opposing QB’s. The Cowboys have 17 sacks, the Eagles have 18. This game will be a lot of fun to watch, but maybe not to play. The Eagles are undefeated (12-0) coming off bye weeks with Andy Reid as their head coach. That probably means something, but I still don’t like them enough to take them minus the points against a Dallas team that plays well on the road. This is going to be one hell of a game to watch on TV. IM TAKING OVER 50 ½ POINTS FOR A SMALL PLAY.

KANSAS CITY (3-3) +3 OVER SAN DIEGO (4-2) (44 ½)

I’ve had the Chargers pegged all year. They’re not that good and if there’s a way for them to lose, they’ll find it. Todd Haley somehow after starting the season 0-3 and looking HORRIBLE in doing so, have fought back to win three in a row and are in the hunt for another AFC West title possibly. In the game earlier this season in San Diego, they almost came away with a win in San Diego, losing 20-17. Haley should have the Chiefs ready for this one. Their defense has rebounded from losing some key players. Dwayne Bowe is a FORCE at wide out, being one of the strongest receivers in the league. He’s caught 29 passes and 4 for touchdowns and a 17.1 yard average per catch. Steve Breaston, formerly from Arizona, is their number 2. Matt Cassel is a very capable quarterback and maybe in this game has more weapons than opposing QB Phillip Rivers who is having more problems so far this year than he has in his entire career. Rivers has thrown 7 TD’s and has 9 picks already this season. Very un-San Diego and Phillip Rivers-like. For Kansas City, youngsters Jackie Battle and Derrick McCluster have ignited the running game along with veteran Thomas Jones to give support to Cassel and the offense. The bye week seemed to work well for the Chiefs because they came away with a 28-0 win against a formidable Oakland Raider team in Oakland. Michael Tolbert and Malcom Floyd may not play again for the Chargers. That could hurt. I’M TAKING THE CHIEFS PLUS THE POINTS AT ARROWHEAD FOR 4 STARS.

SUMMARY OF PICKS

HOUSTON -9 ½ OVER JACKSONVILLE 4
CAROLINA-MINNY OVER 47 4
BUFFALO -4 ½ OVER WASHINGTON 5
BUFFALO-WASHINGTON OVER 45 ½ 5
DENVER +3 OVER DETROIT 3
PITTSBURGH-PATS OVER 52 ½ 5
SAN FRANCISCO -9 OVER CLEVELAND 4
DALLAS-PHILLY OVER 48½ 5
KANSAS CITY +3 OVER SAN DIEGO 4

Plays for Week 7

WASHINGTON (3-2 ) +2 AT CAROLINA (1-5) (43 ½)

Both of these teams are coming off loses and both need a win in the worst way this week. After a horrific game throwing the football, Rex Grossman is sitting down and John Beck is starting at QB for the Redskins this week. Beck was almost the favorite in the preseason only to lose the QB competition at the end of the preseason after having a bad game in the last game. Beck gives the Skins a better arm, more athleticism, but virtually NO experience. He hasn’t played since 2006 when he was a 2nd round draft choice out of BYU. People that actually SAW him play said he is good, so they have THAT going for them. He couldn’t pick a better time or team to start against because the Panthers pass defense has been almost non-existent. The Redskins had three major injuries to their offensive line last week (including Chris Cooley) and it may be a good time to be breaking in new linemen on the left side with a quicker QB in Beck this week. Their two backup OLinemen have NEVER taken an NFL snap during a game. Only Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady have thrown for more yardage than rookie Cam Newton of Carolina. He has thrown for 7 TD’s and rushed for another 6. He has resurrected the career of Steve Smith. The Skins play pretty good pass defense and have 17 sacks. They can pressure the QB without blitzing usually, so Carolina is going to have to establish the run to be successful throwing the ball. Last week, Mike Vick took off a few times and made a big difference in the game. Cam Newton can maybe do the same. Inside the red zone the Skins will have to “spy” Newton because he’s their best chance so far this year of scoring. The problem with that is that Newton is bigger than Skins linebackers. I have the Redskins ranked OK and the Panthers ranked OK—but they are at home. I’m going to pass on this game because it might take the Redskins new QB a game or two to get his game legs underneath him. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME AND THE TOTAL AND PRAY FOR THE SKINS! If you held a gun to my head, I take the Panthers.

CLEVELAND (2-3) -3 OVER SEATTLE (2-3) (41)

To say this game sucks is an understatement. The only reason I even care about it at all is because I listen to Kiley and Booms in Cleveland every morning and there it’s a soap opera with Holmgren, Shurmur, McCoy, and Peyton Hillis as the stars. After losing their first two games of the season against San Francisco and Pittsburgh, Seattle has won 2 out of 3 and almost 3 in a row before the bye week. They’re not sure if their starting QB Tavaris Jackson will be ready to play on Sunday, but they sure hope so. If not, capable backup Charlie Whitehurst will fill in again. Seattle has been somewhat of a surprise so far. They went into New York a little over a week ago and beat the Giants in their place. (I predicted that) That means they can travel. Now they go into Cleveland where there are many problems. Evidently, Peyton Hillis is dinged up with a hamstring pull but played a few snaps this past weekend. Then he was pulled from the game and depending on who you listen to, it was a coaches’ decision or he was injured. Cleveland QB Colt McCoy isn’t doing terrible, but he has no real arm strength and really, besides Josh Cribbs, has no downfield threat to open up the passing game. They’re averaging 3.3 yards per carry on the ground and just 9.9 yards per catch. That’s the lowest in the entire league. The Browns go on the road after this weekend to San Francisco and Houston and probably will be huge underdogs in both cities, so this week’s game is one they absolutely need to win. The Seahawks are EXTREMELY hard to run against so I figure Cleveland will probably come out throwing, and hopefully Hillis will be able to play. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME JUST BECAUSE IT’S SUCH A TOSSUP. I HAVE BOTH TEAMS RATED AS OK–. The winner will still have a shot this year for the playoffs. The loser, not so much. PASS.

DETROIT (5-1) -3 ½ OVER ATLANTA (3-3) (43 ½)

Detroit is coming off an emotional loss at home to San Francisco and the “hard handshake” game. Jim Harbaugh is a freak for sure, and evidently nobody told Jim Schwartz about it before the game. Detroit needs to get rolling asap this week against an Atlanta team that really has struggled compared to last year when they were 13-3 and hosted the first playoff game. I like Detroit here but the more I look at the game and their team right now, the more I might take a powder on this one. They’re for real and they have some playmakers on their team. Atlanta does too, but they’ve struggled so far this year. Detroit QB Matt Stafford so far has a QB rating of 98.7 with 15 TD’s and only 4 interceptions. They’ve struggled most of the season so far running the football and Javid Best, their best RB is out with a concussion this week. A trade for Ronnie Brown was nixed when the Detroit running back was found to have a brain tumor. Calvin Johnson has 9 TD’s so far this season leading the league and is maybe the best receiver in the league. He almost ALWAYS is double-teamed and when he’s not, Stafford just throws it up for him and he brings it down. I look for Atlanta to take him out of the game and make the Lions run the football more. Atlanta’s QB, Matt Ryan is struggling compared to last year and even though they won last week against Carolina, he’s still not really gotten comfortable this year in the pocket. The Falcons are one of the most penalized teams in the league and last year they were the least penalized. Michael Turner got the ball 27 times and ran for 139 yards last week so they look to be figuring something out on their offense. The Lions have given up 777 yards from scrimmage in 6 games so far this season and I look for the Falcons to make their weak run defense work extra hard with Michael Turner running it right down their throat. That will open up the throwing lanes for Matt Ryan to throw to Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. Julio Jones is still out. The home crowd in Detroit will be loud and it will be hard for the Falcons to make changes at the line of scrimmage. A lot of early money has been bet on Atlanta, probably because of the injury to Best, but I think that Detrot has something to prove here. They need to win at home to bounce back after that heartbreaking loss last week. I HAVE DETROIT RATED AS A GOOD TEAM AND THE FALCONS RATED AS JUST AN OK TEAM. The Falcons are on the road and Detroit should cover. HOWEVER, I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE IT FEELS LIKE A BIT OF A TRAP. NFL SMELLS THAT WAY SOMETIMES.

MIAMI (0-5) -1 OVER DENVER (1-4) (41½)

Wow, and I thought that the Cleveland-Seattle game sucked. I was wrong. Two teams that at one time USED to be two of the best teams in the league. Now they have a combined 1-9 record. But there’s a bonus here this weekend. TIM TEBOW IS PLAYING. TIM TEBOW IS PLAYING. TIME TEBOW IS PLAYING. Get the picture. This kid could run for president if he was 35 years old and get elected. He gives new meaning to the words “All American boy”. Hell, he’s a virgin still I think! Anyway, after struggling in their first 4 plus games, TIM TEBOW came in two weeks ago and almost pulled out a victory against the San Diego Chargers. Now he returns to the state of Florida, where he is probably the one person in the state that EVERYONE can recognize. He was more popular than anyone AND he was a three or four time All-American QB at the University of Florida. I’m betting that this game will be a true sellout, something that rarely happens where the Dolphins play anymore. From what I understand, they’re honoring the University of Florida National Champions from 2 years ago before the game. Wow! Talk about a PR nightmare for the Dolphins. At least they’ll sell their seats for the game! Tony Sparano is 0-5 and about to be fired soon. Denver matches up well with the lowly Dolphins. Miami historically hasn’t played well at home anyway, and now that the entire stadium is going to be cheering for TIM TEBOW from start to finish, I don’t see any way they can keep from being beaten and humiliated on Sunday. The Dolphins give up a 103.9 QB rating average and the Broncos give up a 106.5 rating. Matt Moore, unfortunately for the Dolphins, has a 52.8 rating. Tebow, in his short, stint as a QB, has a 101.7 rating. I’M PLAYING TWO PLAYS HERE. I’M TAKING DENVER PLUS OR MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. I’M TAKING THE OVER FOR 5 STARS BECAUSE NEITHER PASS DEFENSE IS ANY GOOD AT ALL. When the Miami linebackers drop into pass coverage or the Dolphins bring in their nickel defense, they’ll have to tackle TIM TEBOW!! That won’t be easy.

SAN DIEGO (4-1) -1 AT JETS (3-3) (43 ½ )

I’m not really sure how the spread got so inflated on the Chargers here. I guess finally people started listening to me and figuring it out that the Jets weren’t that good after all. Did Chuck Noll suddenly become head coach of the Chargers? Anyway, I like it this way. What I don’t like is Rex coming out saying this week that if he had gotten the job in San Diego when he interviewed a few years ago, he’s have a couple of Super Bowl rings by now. Who knows? Maybe he would, but I doubt it. Norv came back with some stupid statement about Ryan not having the rings he GUARANTEED the last couple of years, but HEY NORV..AT LEAST HE MADE IT TO THE PLAYOFFS!! The Chargers have started with a 4-1 record off the bat this year and that is something they aren’t used to doing under Norv. Their wins have come against teams with a combined record so far this season of 4-13, so let’s not get too excited. When they played a good team (New England), they lost by two touchdowns. Phillip Rivers has been struggling this year without his usual cast of pro bowl receivers although injuries and holdouts have slowed them down a bit. In 5 games he’s been sacked 13 times which is a lot for him. Ryan Matthews has improved and is averaging 4.9 yards a carry. His leading receiver is a running back. Rivers has thrown 6 TD’s and 7 picks which isn’t very Phillip Rivers like. They have found a free agent place kicker who has hit everything he’s tried, Nick Novak over the University of Maryland. The Redskins had him but like most of their good players, they cut him. On the other side of the ball, the Jets are struggling on offense. They’re working on a short week having won big at home on Monday night against a winless Miami. They didn’t look so bad in that game, but it was Miami. QB Mark Sanchez has struggled at times but looked much better the other night as he got more time to throw. The Jets are only averaging 3.3 yards per carry but they’ve had some injuries to their OL. I’m pretty sure that LaDanian Tomlinson will be up for this game against his former team that gave up on him. The Jets have played much better teams so far this season having gone up against the likes of Dallas, Oakland, Baltimore, and New England. They played New England much tougher than the Chargers did. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE JETS AT HOME AGAINST A TEAM THAT’S TRAVELING ACROSS COUNTRY AND COACHED BY NORV TURNER. TAKE OR GIVE THE POINTS BUT MAKE SURE YOU TAKE THE JETS FOR 4 STARS. I could be wrong but this game is HUGE for Jets. Not so much for overrated Chargers.

CHICAGO (3-3) -1 OVER TAMPA BAY (4-2) (41)

This game is being played in London at Wembley Stadium, where the London Monarchs won the World League of American Football Title in really it’s only good year ever, it’s first. I’ve called this game before but I can’t really remember a closer toss up to call ever overseas than this one. This game could come down to anything. Food poisoning. How good of a bed are you sleeping in? Who stays out the longest? Who brings their wives with them? Who doesn’t bring their wives with them? All kinds of things. Plane delays. Weather. Everything. I’M GONG TO PASS ON THIS GAME BECAUSE EVEN IF IT WAS PLAYED HERE IN THE STATES, IT WOULD PROBABLY BE TOO CLOSE TO CALL. PASS. I still can’t figure out why we send one game over there every year. What a waste of time for the two teams.
TENNESSEE (3-2) -3 OVER HOUSTON (3-3) (44 ½) – Tennessee is coming off the bye week and should be ready to give all they need to beat a “beat up” Houston team who is playing without their two best players. Matt Hasselbeck has proven already to be the leader the Titans needed for their offense. Chris Johnson should be ready after the two week break to give them the kind of running game they need from him finally. Matt Shaub of Houston had several “check ups” this week to see if he was even ready to play on Sunday. From what I hear, he’s going to start, but he’s definitely not 100%. After losing opening day to a pretty lousy Jacksonville team, Tennessee has righted their ship and immediately beat the Ravens, who beat the Texans last week by almost the same score. The Texans still have their two best players out so I’M TAKING THE TITANS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS. I think Houston will struggle AGAIN, even with the Colts out of the picture, to make the playoffs. They are the favorite, but they need to get healthy and they need to play better. The three decent teams they’ve played so far this season beat them. Some things change and some things stay the same. Kubiak’s coaching staff seems to have stayed the same. TITANS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

PITTSBURGH (4-2) -4 OVER ARIZONA (1-4) (43 ½ )

The Steelers seem to be improving even though they’ve played all season long with a patchwork offensive line. Injuries decimated their line and several members of their receiving corps have been dinged up. Ben has practiced in a walking boot from time to time so he’s not 100%. He’s toughed it out pretty well this year and seems to be getting healthier. The Cardinals have struggled losing 4 in a row since winning opening day against the Carolina Panthers in Cam Newton’s opener. Their running game has been OK with Beanie Wells, but they’ve been inconsistent. Larry Fitzgerald may very well be the best receiver in the league but there’s really not much else there to take away double teams. TE Todd Heap only has 13 receptions in 5 games but he’s supposed to play. Fitzgerald only has 2 TD’s. Head coach Ken Whisenhunt is patient, but it must be getting frustrating for him. They go this week against his former team he and Russ Grimm coached for several years and they’ll do all they can to play their best game of the season, but can they?? Pittsburgh last week jumped out on top of the Jaguars, then didn’t score in the second half and barely held on to beat a pretty lousy Jacksonville team. I’m pretty sure that the Steelers will win here since they usually do when they travel to Arizona. LOTS OF RETIRED STEELER FANS IN ARIZONA! HOWEVER, I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME SINCE THE HOME DOGS REALLY DO NEED THE GAME IN THE WORST WAY!
OAKLAND (4-2) -4 OVER KANSAS CITY (2-3) (40 ½ ) – Jason Campbell is out for at least two months so the Raiders made a trade for Carson Palmer this past week. Kyle Boller is getting the start because the 800 page playbook of Al Saunders was a big much for Palmer to absorb in one week. I’m not sure if this is the right thing to do, but evidently Palmer is in shape, has been throwing all year long, and the sooner they get him in there the better. The Raiders sport maybe the best running back in the league so far this year, Darren McFadden, who has 610 yards so far and is a target also out of the backfield. The Raiders have only lost to Buffalo and New England and have won the games they can and should win so far. Their special teams and especially kicking teams showcasing Jacoby Ford and punter Shane Lechler has been impressive. Hue Jackson has these Raiders playing well and they are dealing with the loss of their leader, Al Davis, who passed away a week ago. The Chiefs, on the other hand, have struggled most of the season, but after looking absolutely HORRIBLE the first two games of the season and losing three of their best players for the season, they’ve played San Diego very tough, and won their last two games against two non-teams, Minnesota and Indy. They are coming off a bye week and should be healthier than they’ve been all season long. They are getting virtually no pass rush to speak of but are pretty strong on defense against the run. If they’re smart, they’ll stack the box with 8 or 9 players and force Boller to throw the football in order to move it. The Chiefs also have to get their running game going this week, so Matt Cassel can throw to his group of receivers and move the football consistently. I’M PASSING ON THIS GAME BECAUSE NOBODY REALLY KNOWS WHAT THE OAKLAND OFFENSE WILL LOOK LIKE.

DALLAS (2-3) -13 OVER ST. LOUIS (0-5) (43)

Dallas is by far one of the best 2-3 teams in the history of the NFL. They have beaten two pretty good teams in Washington and San Francisco. They BARELY lost to the Jets, Detroit, and New England on the last series’ of the game. They seriously could be 5-0. They could also be 0-5. What kind of excitement is this? Torture! Just like the San Francisco Baseball Giants!! I look at this week’s game as an opportunity for them (if they don’t let up) to DESTROY a weak and struggling Rams team that virtually have nothing on the offensive side of the ball except Steven Jackson who is averaging just over 4 yards a carry except for his first carry of the season. He is 100% now and could make a difference in the game, but I look for the Cowboys to take care of business this week. Felix Jones is out this week but DeMarco Murray and Tashard Choice will be fine when asked to run the ball or catch it out of the backfield. The Rams do NOT have a good defense. They’ve also played a very tough schedule so far with Philly, Washington, and the Giants from the East, and Baltimore and Green Bay, arguably the two best teams in the NFL. The Cowboys will not be easy either. It looks like even though he’s not 100% Sam Bradford will get the start for the Rams. He’s been the unfortunate recipient of the lousy pass blocking of the Rams that has yielded 22 sacks so far. He’s pretty banged up and probably getting a big antsy in the pocket. Personally, I’d just give Steven Jackson the ball 35 times and go from there. I look for this to happen this week with the Rams game plan. There’s nobody to throw to anyway even though they just acquired Brandon Lloyd from Denver . They have thrown 3 TD passes in 5 games. Their offense is averaging just over 8 points per game. I’m not going out on a limb to say THAT IS PATHETIC. They either need to hire a new GM or a new head coach, or BOTH. I’M TAKING THE DALLAS COWBOYS MINUS THE HUGE NUMBER FOR 4 STARS. I LOVE THIS GAME.

GREEN BAY (6-0) -9 ½ OVER MINNESOTA (1-5) (46 ½)

The Packers right now are the best team in the NFL. They haven’t lost much if anything from their Super Bowl Championship team. Their OL has been tested, but they’ve replaced injured players. They’re receivers have done a good job. Their quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, is the best QB in the league right now and barring injury, should lead his team deep into the playoffs again this season. They’ve struggled running the football at times but their downfield and intermediate passing game has provided them with all the offense the need so far. They’re defense is solid also giving up only 2 rushing TD’s so far and a 4.1 average yards per rush. They’ve given up 10 TD passes so far but have 11 picks for a defense 81.7 quarterback rating given up. The Vikings, on the other hand, have fallen a long way from their Brett Favre (speaking of Green Bay) led teams of just a couple of years ago. They still have Adrian Petersen, who is as solid of a running back as they come and this week a rookie QB will be handing the ball off to him probably 25-30 times. Christian Ponder was drafted out of Florida State and in my opinion, he is a very athletic, talented kid who should eventually turn into a decent NFL QB. However, starting his first game of his career against a Dom Capers coached World Championship defense isn’t the best of situations. But it’s probably better than having Donovan McNabb get sacked a half dozen times and throw 4 picks. Capers is going to stack the box with 8 or 9 players, constantly moving and changing looks to shut down Adrian Petersen and make the rookie throw the ball. When everyone’s covered, this kid can run the football, something that McNabb couldn’t really do anymore. Rodgers has a 122.5 QB rating which is absolutely sick. The Vikings defensive backfield is OK, but they’re no match for Rodgers and his guys. I’M TAKING THE PACKERS MINUS THE 9 POINTS INDOORS (Rodgers LOVES domes) to beat up a rookie lead Viking team. It’s not going to get better very quickly in Minnesota. Good luck Vikings!

NEW ORLEANS (4-2) – 13 ½ OVER INDIANAPOLIS (0-6) (48)

The Peytonless Colts haven’t lost by 14 points since the first game of the season this year, but if there was a time they could go down quick and hard it’s here against the Saints who lost a tough one last week in Tampa. The Colts SUCK! I don’t mean that in a bad way, just a factual way. They rate on the BHS rating system as one of the truly SUCK teams in the NFL so far this season. Joseph Addai is out for the game. They’ll have to rely on Donald Brown to get those tough yards against Gregg Williams’ defense. Curtis Painter IS throwing for a 93 QB rating but so far no wins. Drew Brees is concerned with his large number of picks and knowing him as I do (I don’t really know him personally), he’ll make changes and come out with a barrage of short and long range passes and put some real points up on the scoreboard early in the game. Sean Payton broke his leg and injured his knee last week and is up in the press box this week to call the game. Personally, I think that had a lot to do with them losing last week. Not only was it a huge diversion that probably caused his coaches and his players to worry about his health, but it probably freaking bothered him too. He’ll be ready this week but I really DON’T like the 14 points and I’M GOING TO PASS ON THE GAME JUST BECAUSE IT IS TOO MANY DAMN POINTS. I DO LIKE THE OVER 48 POINTS HOWEVER! TAKE THE OVER 48 POINTS FOR 5 STARS.

BALTIMORE (4-1) -8 OVER JACKSONVILLE (1-5) (39)

The Ravens area a GOOD team ranked 2nd in the league in my power standings. The Jaguars have a rookie QB in Blaine Gabbert and I have them rated as a SUCK team. Even though they’re at home, there really isn’t much home field advantage to playing there in Jacksonville, otherwise known as South Georgia. They won their first game of the season by 2 points at home and have since lost 5 games in a row. The Jaguars have Maurice Jones-Drew as their big time offensive weapon and he is a bit of a freak. However, even MJD can’t do it all by himself. The Ravens defense has the ability to take away pretty much what they want with an opposing offense. I’m guessing they’re going to make Gabbert throw the ball by stacking the line of scrimmage with their nasty, tough defensive front 8 or 9 players. The Ravens are only giving up 3.3 yards per carry and a meazley 65.9 QB rating AVERAGE. That’s some good defense there. Gabbert has a 71.1 QB rating and that isn’t going to stand up too much against the Ravens pass rush. Ray Rice should be able to find some holes in a fairly tough front 7 for Jacksonville and look for Joe Flacco to open up downfield with some big gains early in the game. I’m going to take the Ravens MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS IN THIS MATCHUP.

SUMMARY

DENVER +1 OVER MIAMI 5 OVER 44 ½
DENVER-MIAMI 5
JETS +2 OVER SAN DIEGO 4 OVER 48
INDY-NEW ORLEANS 5
TENNESSEE -3 OVER HOUSTON 4
DALLAS -13 OVER ST. LOUIS 5
GREEN BAY -9 OVER MINNY 5
BALTIMORE -8 OVER JAX 4

Plays for Week 6

DETROIT -4 OVER SAN FRANCISCO (46)

Two teams going in the right direction. Last year at this time both teams were a combined 1-9. This year just the opposite 9-1. Detroit is undefeated and having won 9 games in a row going back to last season. San Francisco is the favorite now to win the weak NFC West with a 4-1 record and undefeated on the road. Two great coaches who will be around for a long time. Jim Schwartz has Detroit so confident they should win 11 games to make the playoffs as a wild card. NOBODY in the North is going to stay with Green Bay, but if anyone can, it’s the Lions. If Nick Fairley is healthy, nobody is going to be able to deal with the front defensive line of Detroit. Matt Stafford is doing a good job of putting points on the board for the offense. Jim Harbaugh has confidence in Alex Smith and it’s showing. His QB rating is 100 now and they can run and throw the ball and control the clock. Against a decent defense in Tampa last week, the 49ers rushed for 213 yards. Their defense after the first five games leads the NFL. Ford Field creates some problems for visitors with its noise level but if anyone can stay with the Lions right now it’s the 49ers. I’m going to pass on this game even though you have to like the LIONS here. San Francisco is coming off a huge home win. PASS ON THIS GAME..TOO CLOSE TO CALL.

GREEN BAY -14 OVER ST. LOUIS (47 ½ )

The Packers are the best team in the league. St. Louis may be the worst team in the league. St. Louis can’t cover anyone in their secondary. Against the BEST teams in football, Green Bay can move the ball in the air and on the ground. However, Steven Jackson is finally HEALTHY after pulling a quad on his first touch of the season, a long run for a TD opening day. Why waste too much time breaking down this game. It would be easy to leave the game alone with the 14 points. However, TAKE GREEN BAY MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. I’D BE SURPRISED IF THE PACKERS DON’T COME OUT AND PUT A 50 BURGER ON THE RAMS AT HOME. TAKE THE PACKERS FOR 5 STARS MINUS THE HUGE AMOUNT OF POINTS. Leave the total alone. It’s ridiculous that the Packers receivers are bitching about not getting enough passes thrown at them. I can see Green Bay taking the Rams for granted here, but I’m giving the points anyway.

ATLANTA – 3 ½ OVER CAROLINA (50 ½ )

Two teams going in different directions. Carolina with Cam Newton leading their offense are a team in transition but can score on offense in the air and on the ground. Their defense is killing them. Their linebacking corps doesn’t tackle very well and their secondary is pretty bad. They are giving up a 99.6 QB rating and 4.9 yards per carry. Atlanta is struggling with a 2-3 record. This game could bite them in the ass if they don’t figure out a way to outscore the Panthers. The Falcons should be able to move the ball on the Panthers defense and the Panthers will may have some trouble running the football against the Falcons. The Saints controlled the clock and threw the ball with efficiency against the Panthers last week, even though the Carolina rushed for 162 yards. If the Panthers convert on a 3rd and 2 from near midfield in the 4th quarter with the lead, the game is probably over. They just haven’t figured out how to put teams away yet. Ron Rivera has the Panthers close to where they want to be. If the Falcons show any signs of not being ready for this game, they could lose it and quick. I’M GOING TO PASS ON THIS GAME. THE OVER WITH GOOD WEATHER IS A MILD PLAY.

CINCINNATI -6 ½ OVER INDY (40 ½ )

The Bengals came back last week to beat a struggling Jacksonville team on the road 30-20. Andy Dalton is doing a good job in his rookie year at QB. Curtis Painter will get the start for Indy and is improving every game. I’m not sure if Indy is ready to go into Cincy and beat the Bengals at this point in the season. They may NEVER win a game this season. If they don’t, I know a good Stanford quarterback that would look good in royal and blue!! Andrew Luck baby!! Unless the Bengals completely let down here, they should come out with a W. However, I feel that the Colts will stay with the Bengals and possibly make this a close game. I’m going to PASS ON THIS GAME even though the Cincinnati defense is much better than the Colts offense. PASS.

GIANTS -3 ½ OVER BUFFALO (50)

We were all over the fact that the Giants at home are not as good as they are on the road. Now, the upstart and talented Buffalo Bills come to the Meadowlands and will be ready for whatever the Giants have in the tank for them. Buffalo’s head coach Chan Gailey has been in New York a few times and had some luck winning games there. I knew that Eli Manning would be able to throw the ball against the Seahawks and did. He threw for 420 yards, but he had 3 horrible picks to come back and bite him in the ass. They were NOT able to run the ball against the Seahawks and Brandon Jacobs was out for the game. Philly had almost 500 total yards but made so many mistakes they had no chance to win the game. Having said that, the Giants should be able to score some points. If they don’t turn the ball over, they should beat the Bills. However, the only thing I’m sure of is that both offenses will be successful. I’M TAKING THE OVER 50 POINTS FOR 5 STARS. I’M PASSING ON THE STRAIGHT PLAY. It should be a great game to watch especially if you’re a Bills fan. Shawne Merriman is OUT for the game, not a good thing for the Bills.

PITTSBURGH -12 ½ OVER JACKSONVILLE (40)

The Steelers came up big at home this past week and may have turned their season around temporarily. Luckily for them, the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars are coming to town and besides Maurice Jones-Drew have no real football players to speak of. The Jags should be able to run the ball against the Steelers and have some success, but I don’t see Blaine Gabbert being able to figure out Pittsburgh’s defense and what they’ll throw at him for the entire game. The Steelers had a good game against a good Titans defense and moved the ball both on the ground and in the air and completely dominated Tennessee. This is a lot of points to give for a team that has problems on the defensive side of the ball, but things aren’t going that well with Jacksonville right now. I’M GOING TO TAKE THE STEELERS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 3 STARS.

WASHINGTON + 3 OVER PHILLY (47)

The Redskins are coming off a bye week and everyone should be healthy. The Eagles are coming off another disheartening loss in Buffalo against the Bills and are a little banged up. The Skins will be able to run and throw the ball against the Philly defense who have trouble covering and tackling. Mike Vick rushed for 90 yards and threw for 315 yards but he was picked off 4 times. Whatever is happening with their offense, it’s not all his fault. Defensively, they are giving up the big play which is not good. This is a GREAT spot for the Eagles to make the short ride down to D.C. and beat the Skins which they’ve done plenty in recent years. HOWEVER, this is not your usual Washington Redskins team. These guys believe they are good. They are playing well on both sides of the ball and if they don’t turn the ball over, they should be able to win this game. There will be so much money bet on the Eagles this week that the Skins may be the play here. As a matter of fact, the line has moved SO MUCH in the favor of the Eagles, that I’d be an idiot to not take the Skins here. First of all, they are the better team AND they are at home, AND their defense can tackle, unlike the Eagles defense. Just because the Eagles NEED to win isn’t a good enough reason to play them. 75% of the betting public has money on Philly and it’s because the NEED the game more. Bull Shit. Mike Vick or no Mike Vick, I see the Skins winning a close, high scoring game at Fed Ex Field this week to stay in the lead in the NFL East and put the Eagles where they belong….at the bottom. TAKE THE SKINS AND THE POINTS AND THE OVER FOR 4 STARS.

BALTIMORE -7 OVER HOUSTON (45)

The Texans had a chance to improve their record to 4-1 this past weekend but blew some good chances to win against the Oakland Raiders, possibly motivated by the passing of Al Davis. Whatever the reason, Houston blew a great chance to go to the lead of their division. Houston outgained the Raiders 473-278 but two big picks hurt them. The Texans match up well with the Ravens secondary with their passing game and Arian Foster will give their front 7 plenty to worry about running the football and catching the ball out of the backfield. This could be a great game. However, I think that Matt Shaub is going to struggle finding a receiver with Andre Johnson out of the game and dealing with the Ravens blitzing schemes. They historically have given Schaub trouble. The last running back to rush for over 100 yards against the Ravens was Arian Foster last season. Both teams are quick starters scoring many of their points in the first quarter. This coUld tell a big story of who wins and covers in this game. I’m taking the RAVENS minus the 7 points for 4 stars. They have shown at home they are very good this season and the Texans are probably still reeling from the big loss at home last week to the Raiders. BALTIMORE MINUS THE 7 FOR 4 STARS.

OAKLAND -6 ½ OVER CLEVELAND (44 ½ )

After going to Houston and beating the Texans at their place, now we’ll see if Oakland is still motivated enough to win in the Black Hole against a Browns team that just isn’t very good at all. Colt McCoy leads the offense for the Browns and has Peyton Hillis coming off an illness who can run the ball against almost anyone. However, I don’t see the Browns staying with the Raiders here. The Raiders should be able to move the football against a very average Browns defense. TAKE THE RAIDERS HERE MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

DALLAS +6 ½ AT NEW ENGLAND (55 ½ )

Anyone who knows me knows that I hate the Dallas Cowboys. Even so,I find it hard to believe that this won’t be the best game of the weekend. Dallas has a lot of talent especially on the offensive side of the ball. New England seems to be able to outscore anyone in the league. The Pats have won 19 games in a row at home. Tom Brady has thrown for over 300 yards 13 games in a row and the last game that he didn’t throw for 300 yards was against the Cleveland Browns and Rob Ryan was the DC that game for Cleveland. Dallas is one of those teams that seems to relax better on the road. Too much pressure and not enough of a home field advantage anymore in the spaceship they plan in might be the reason. This game will probably going to come down to turnovers and who has the ball last. I like Dallas to cover the spread here on the road. Romo should get plenty of time to throw, although I’m sure that’s something Belechick is working on as we speak. Brady should be able to throw against the Dallas defense but their run defense is tough. Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis has looked very good as of late running the ball for New England, like last week against the Jets, but he somehow injured his toe and is questionable. I just don’t think the Cowboys will have an answer for all of the receiving weapons that the Pats will throw at them. The Cowboys have only picked off only 4 passes all year. The Pats have picked off 7. The turnover battle will have EVERYTHING to do with who wins. Romo will probably turn the ball over more than Brady. That will be the difference in a high scoring affair. TAKE THE COWBOYS PLUS THE POINTS AND THE OVER 55 POINTS FOR 5 STARS EACH. ONE HELL OF A FUN GAME TO WATCH FOR SURE. DALLAS NEEDS THE WIN BADLY.

TAMPA BAY +6 OVER NEW ORLEANS (49 ½)

Last week the Saints were lucky to win against the Carolina Panthers. They can score on offense behind Brees and Peyton calling the plays but they struggle against the run defensively. The problem this week is LeGarrette Blount’s OUT for this week’s game for Tampa Bay. That will hurt the Bucs terribly. Not having the physical play of Blount makes it even HARDER for Josh Freeman to do any harm with his already weak passing game. The Bucs, on the other hand, give up an AVERAGE of 99.9 QB rating so far this season which doesn’t bode well going up against Brees this week. The last two years the Saints have crushed the Bucs at home by a combined score of 69-13. Breen is thrown for 6 touchdowns and just one interception at Raymond James Stadium the past two years. Tampa needs the game badly but they’re too banged up and facing a team that is going to put some distance between themselves and the rest of the South NFC division. TAKE THE SAINTS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 4 STARS.

MINNESOTA +2 ½ AT CHICAGO (41 ½)

The Vikings seem to be solving some of their problems with a big win at home last week against the punchless Arizona Cardinals. The Vikings can and will run almost at will against the Bears who have given up a whopping 5.7 yards per carry so far this season. The Vikings only give up 3.3 yards per carry on defense and the defensive secondary isn’t bad. Chicago is horrible so far. Their defense gives up big play after big play. The Vikings front 7 has 16 sacks so far this season and the Bears have had Cutler sacked a league leading 18 times. After going to Detroit on Monday and getting thrashed by the Lions defense, and also being on a short week, I lookm for the Bears to get beat by a Viking team that has played everyone tough so far this season, only to lose late in the games. TAKE THE VIKINGS PLUS THE 3 FOR 4 STARS. They are the better team here and historically haven’t done well at Soldier Field but this isn’t the MONSTERS OF THE MIDWAY that we’re used to seeing.

JETS -6 ½ AT MIAMI (42 ½)

Hey Tony Sparano is 3-0 lifetime against New York teams!! Maybe his last name IS SOPRANO. However, the Jets have lost three in a row and SHOULD have lost their opener which would have made them 1-4 at this point in the season. Matt Moore is the 16th QB to start for the Dolphins since 2000. According to Rex, the Jets are going to still win the Super Bowl. I…don’t think so. Their defense is decent still, but their offense is pretty soft. They can’t run the ball with any success and their passing game will suck as long as Sanchez is their leader. But here’s the good news. THEY PLAY THE DOLPHINS THIS WEEKEND!! The Dolphins have no intent on screwing up their chances of getting the first pick in next year’s draft and taking Andrew Luck, who will become their “franchise” quarterback. They are coming off a bye week and should be pretty healthy for a change BUT I don’t see that happening on Monday night in New York. Even Sanchez should be able to move the football through the air against the porous Dolphin defensive backfield. They have given up a 105.4 QB rating AVERAGE so far this season. That may make even Sanchez look good. WR Brandon Jacobs who admittedly has behavior problems has promised to come out with his “INNER BEAST” this weekend on Monday Night Football. I’m laying even money that his “INNER BEAST” has shitty hands too. TAKE THE JETS MINUS THE POINTS AGAINST ONE OF THE LEADERS IN THE ANDREW LUCK POOL FOR 4 STARS. MIAMI SUCKS. THEY REALLY SUCK.

SUMMARY

GREEN BAY -14 OVER ST. LOUIS 3 SKINS-PHILLY OVER 47 5 BALTIMORE -7 OVER HOUSTON 4 GIANTS-BUFFALO OVER 49 1/2 4 OAKLAND – 6 ½ OVER CLEVELAND 3 ATL-CAROLINA OVER 50 ½ 4 DALLAS +6 ½ OVER NEW ENGLAND 4 DALLAS-N. E. OVER 55 ½ 5 MINNY +2 ½ OVER CHICAGO 3 JETS- 6 ½ OVER MIAMI 4 NEW ORLEANS -6 ½ OVER T. BAY 3 REDSKINS +3 OVER PHILLY 3

Plays for Week 5

BUFFALO +3 OVER PHILLY (52)

I love the Vegas non-respect that the Bills seem to claim here and also the fact that there are too many Philly fans out there holding up the line. The Eagles are circling the wagons and the only team that can circle the wagons like nobody else are THE BUFFALO BILLS!  A pretty decent Bengal team came back last week and beat the Bills to give them their lone loss of the season.  This week the Bills are back home in the confines of Rich Stadium and the Bills should have enough offense to outscore an Eagles team that is having some real problems so far this year. Mike Vick still isn’t 100%.  The Eagles linebackers just aren’t doing the job and they’re even having trouble with support from safeties.  There should be plenty of scoring here and I feel that the crowd will pick the Bills defense up enough to beat Philly.  Forget that, they’re an underdog at home.  No respect.  I’m taking the OVER 50 POINTS in this game because both defenses are searching for help and not getting much.  The Eagles have lost 3 in a row and I can’t remember the last time Andy Reid has lost 4 in a row (someone look that up for me will you?) I’M TAKING BUFFALO PLUS THE POINTS AND THE OVER HERE. Everyone in the country is on Philly here and it makes NO SENSE. They’re not that good right now.

NEW ORLEANS -6 ½ OVER CAROLINA (51)

Carolina’s Cam Newton has the entire attention of the NFL and it’s fans after continuing to set records for rookie quarterbacks. Last week against the Bears in Chicago, the Panthers could and should have won that game.  They don’t have much defense to speak of so far this season but injuries have claimed their two best players for the season.  In Williams and Stewart, they have two first round draft choices in the backfield and another one taking snaps from center that just may change the way football is played in the NFL.  The Saints have had some key injuries in the past couple of weeks but since losing a nailbiter to the Packers the opening game of the year, they’ve won three in a row and their offense has looked great doing so.  However, Drew Brees has completed 20 passes or more in 24 straight NFL games, a new NFL record.  Darren Sproles, their replacement and then some, for Reggie Bush has been unbelievable and leads the NFL in all purpose yards for the season. He leads the league in 11 catches on third down also.  Nobody’s close. He also leads the team in receptions with 26 in 4 games and TE Jimmy Graham leads the receiving corps with 24 for an amazing 15.3 ypc. The key in this game is going to be which defense comes off the field more often and that’s going to be the Saints.  The Carolina defense just can’t stop the run well enough and Sean Peyton will run more than he passes if they come out in the nickel.  They should be able to beat the Panthers and Gregg Williams’ defense should be able to do just enough to Cam Newton and company to win. This game historically has been a game in which the visitor usually either wins or covers for some reason.  I’M ONLY TAKING THE OVER 52 POINTS IN THIS GAME. CHECK THE WEATHER. LAST TIME IN CAROLINA THERE WAS A MONSOON AND THE WEATHER FORECAST WAS SUNNY AND 70.

HOUSTON -5 OVER OAKLAND (48 ½)

As we speak, bettors are HAMMERING the Raiders.  The Raiders evened their record to 2-2 with a loss last week at home to New England, but they were in the game pretty much the entire way. A couple of key turnovers were the difference in the game.  In four games so far, Darren McFadden is averaging 6.2 yards per carry and has rushed for over 100 yards per game.  QB Jason Campbell has looked good so far this season and when he gets time, is getting the ball downfield to a variety of receivers.  Surprisingly so far, the defense for the Raiders has struggled.  They barely lost to the highly improved Buffalo Bills and beat the not so good Jets at home by 10.  Head Coach Hue Jackson has been just what the Raiders have needed at the helm.  He has them believing and they’re playing hard for 4 quarters, something they haven’t always done.  The Texans, in my opinion, have improved dramatically and the difference has been Wade Phillips’ defense.  Last week, they only gave up 10 points to the struggling Steelers in a big win at home, but that was something for years they just dreamed of. I like the Texans here in this game to win. The line in Vegas has moved 3 points since Wednesday and Al Davis’ death may make it move more.  Personally, I know I should leave this alone. Andre Johnson is out. However, I feel that the Texans and Matt Schaub will find more targets in their receiving corps to make up for Johnson’s absence.   I AM TAKING THE OVER 49 POINTS FOR 4 STARS this weekend because both teams are overdue to score more points this week. I also feel that the Texans are a GOOD football team. Oakland is just OK and on the road. They may be distracted but definitely will play hard. Key here is Matt Shaub vs. Jason Campbell.  I like Campbell, but he’s no Matt Shaub. Besides, if Houston covers, Vegas wins.

 INDIANAPOLIS -3 OVER KANSAS CITY (38 ½)

Indy is 0-4 and is favored by 3 points.  3 points is the home advantage minimum usually for a home team playing an NFL game.  Both of these teams, according to Vegas, are EXACTLY as bad as each other.  I disagree.  I think that the Chiefs are TOTALLY dysfunctional.  The Colts are getting better and trying harder.  I also liked the way that Curtis Painter played last week. Even though he threw a lot of incomplete passes, he threw for 2 TD’s and no INT’s.  This kid knows the offense.  The Colts are at home in a place where with a lead, their fans will be very LOUD.  KC’s Dexter McCluster is a weapon for sure.  Last week, with only 10 touches, he made a big difference.  Dwayne Bowe is one of the NFL’s best pass receivers and he’s hitting his stride.  Cassel is using Steve Breaston as his 2^nd receiver and having some success there.  After a shaky start in their first two games, the Chiefs defense has settled down and played much better the last two weeks, giving up only17 points in each game.  The Colts are amazingly averaging 4.1 yards per carry on the grond with a long run so far of just 18 yards.  Joseph Addai is an excellent runner and is good out of the backfield catching the ball also.  The Colts have played the Steelers and the Bucs tight two weeks in a row.  Even though they’re on a short work week, I like the Colts getting ready for a Chiefs team that won’t have too much to throw at them and beating them for their first win of the season.  If they don’t win this game, they might not have a chance to win for about a month because they hit the road and play Cincinnati, New Orleans, and Tennessee. I’M PASSING ON THIS GAME. INDY WILL PROBABLY WIN BUT I CAN’T BE SURE.

JACKSONVILLE PICK OVER CINCINNATI (37)

These two teams are going in opposite directions.  The Jags are a SUCK team with my rating system.  They haven’t really shown anything all season so far and they have their rookie QB Blaine Gabbert starting now.  He has a 62.9 QB rating so far.  Cincy rookie QB Andy Dalton has looked better and has a high QB rating but he also has a head coach who knows how to make a QB look bad.  The Bengals just beat the Bills at home and played well.  Their defense has performed well all season long except in Denver.  Jacksonville is averaging less than 10 points per game. Carolina’s defense held them to 10 points and the Panthers defense is not very good. Of course, that was in a monsoon, so we can throw that out.  Rookie QB Blaine Gabbert is completing les than 50% of his passes.  Rookie QB Andy Dalton of Cincinnati looks much better and has A.J. Green and TE Gresham to throw to.  He also has Cedrick Benson to hand the ball off to.  Maurice Jones-Drew of Jacksonville is averaging 5.1 yard per carry so they will try to slow the game down and keep the Bengals offense off the field.  The Benglas are 2-2 but could easily be 4-0.  I was surprised when Jack Del Rio was brought back to coach the Jags at the end of last season.  I see no way these guys win more than 4 games all year.  Bad decision by the owners of the Jags.  We have a lame duck situation in Jacksonville and it’s going to trickle down to the players and may have already. TAKE THE BENGALS HERE FOR 3 STARS.  BENGALS ARE A MUCH BETTER TEAM HERE.

 VIKINGS -3 OVER ARIZONA (45 ½)

Vikings are coming off their 4^th loss in a row against THE WORST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE, THE KANSAS CITY CHIEFS.  The Chiefs are terrible and Minnesota should have been able to handle them at home. They didn’t.  If the Vikings DON’T beat the Cardinals at home this weekend, changes will be made and that will probably be Donovan McNabb giving up his starting QB position to the rookie from Florida State, Christian Ponder, who can play by the way.  The Cards should have a tough time running the football against the Vikings, meaning Kevin Kolb will be throwing to Larry Fitzgerald, Early Doucet, and Todd Heap to move the football.  The Cardinals don’t travel well, having lost already this season on the road to Washington and the lowly Seattle Seahawks.  Minnesota’s best corner Antoine Winfield is out for the game with a bad neck. This game is too close to call and so far this season, Minnesota hasn’t figured out how to play a complete game. Cincinnati is clearly the better team here, but I don’t trust the play.  PASS ON THIS DAMN GAME.

GIANTS -9 ½ OVER SEATTLE (43)

Eli Manning and the Giants have won 3 in a row.  Against the lowly Rams, they looked terrible but won by 12.  Next week they knocked Mike Vick out of the game and beat a struggling Eagles team by 13. Last week against Arizona, they came from behind and beat a struggling Cardinal team by 4.  Almost let that one get away. When the Giants are in the red zone, they score (8 out of 10 trips inside the 20).  They’ve only kicked one field goal all season long which is good AND bad. With Peyton Manning on the sidelines this season, Eli has thrown for a 105.6 QB rating, throwing 8 TD’s and only 2 INT’s.  He has been sacked 11 times though.  That needs to improve.  Defensively, the Giants defensive backfield and pass rush is giving up only a 76.7 QB rating to opposing QB’s.  Amazingly enough, the new Giants offensive line has only allowed their good running back tandem of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs to rush for 3.3 yards per carry.  Jacobs is probably out this week with a bad knee.  So is Justin Tuck again.  The thing I like about this Giants team is that it reminds me exactly of the team that won the Super Bowl.  The Seahawks will be hard to run against. That means that Eli will have to throw to score probably.  The Seahawks, I have rated as a SUCK team.  Seahawks QB Tavaris Jackson has played OK so far, but he’s not getting much help.  They have only run the ball 80 times so far this season a 3.4 yards per carry average.  Their offense has AVERAGED just 24.33 minutes in time of possession, the worst in the NFL.  Surprisingly enough, their defensive front 7 has only allowed 3.2 yards per carry on an incredibly heavy 131 carries in 4 games.  Their secondary is giving up an average of just under 70% completion average but not a whole lot of yardage.  Their defense isn’t their problem.  Their lack of offense is their problem. I look for the GIANTS here to dominate the line of scrimmage.  Bradshaw and the O-line need to dominate from the start.  That will open up Giants receivers down the field for Eli to use his talented receivers to score.  The NFC EAST is the Giants to win if they play well starting right now.  After losing their opener against the Skins, they’ve run off three wins in a row. HOWEVER, THIS IS JUST THE KIND OF GAME FOR THE PAST SEVERAL YEARS THAT THE GIANTS WILL STRUGGLE TO WIN. PASS ON THIS GAME.  THE GIANTS MAKE ME NERVOUS IN DOUBLE DIGIT FAVORITES AT HOME. SMELLS LIKE A TRAP AND THERE IS LATE MONEY ON SEATTLE!! PASS. DOUBLE PASS.

TENNESSEE +3 AT PITTSBURGH (38 ½)

These are two teams going in opposite directions.  Big Ben has a hurt foot but will start and play this week.  They have beaten two SUCK teams and lost to two GOOD teams.  The Steelers will usually give you a 100% effort so what I see is a team that isn’t as talented as in years past.  They are slower, older, and banged up some kind of bad.  To make things even worse, their heart and soul of their defense James Harrison, maybe the biggest, baddest, linebacker they’ve ever had (sorry Jack Lambert), is out. Their defense has been playing below their usual great level and are giving up 4.8 yards per carry and an 85.2 QB rating, which is decent.  The really amazing thing is that their opponents have DOUBLED their sack total and the Steelers secondary HAS NO INTERCEPTIONS SO FAR.  Steelers run defense is horrible.  Last year, Steelers run defense led the league with 62.8 yards per game.  This year, they’ve average so far 119.5. That is scary. Now Harrison is down for the year.  Tennessee, on the other hand, is improving and the transition to Mike Munchak as head coach has been smooth to say the least.  QB Matt Hasselbeck is throwing at a 104.7 QB rating clip and 128.9 in the RED ZONE, which is awesome considering he doesn’t have any real name receivers healthy after Kenny Britt went down with an injury.  All Pro Chris Johnson after signing a new contract, has started to show signs of getting in game shape and should start being a big difference for the running game.  The Titans should be able to shut down the Steelers running game, even though the Steelers are getting a couple of starting offensive linemen back this week.    The Steelers will probably have a problem with C.J. this week, which will force a lot of defensive 8 and 9 man fronts.  If this happens, look for Hasselbeck to use play action and throw down field to Washington or TE Cook. Big Ben is going to be 70 or 80% maybe and even though they’re at home, I see Tennessee coming into town and possibly pulling off an upset.  If the Steelers win here, they’ve got a shot.  If they lose, their season is over in my opinion.  I LIKE TENNESSEE HERE, BUT IT’S TOO CLOSE TO CALL.  LEAVE IT THE HELL ALONE.

TAMPA BAY +3 OVER SAN FRANCISCO (41 ½)

Who would have thought that the Bucs and 49ers would be a combined 6-2 going into week 5 this season? Not me.  However, the 49ers are in the NFC West and I’ve gone on the record and said that 7-9 would win the West this season.  If that’s true, and the 49ers can hold serve at home this weekend, they could just be 3 wins away from the playoffs. That’s if you believe ME!  Anyway, the only 49er loss was to Tony Romo and the Cowboys in overtime or they’d be 4-0.  Harbaugh is a Harbaugh and he knows how to win.  They have a long way to go, but they’re headed in the right direction. 49we NT Isaac Sopoaugo has a staph infection and may be out. He’s a stud.  Last season Raheem Morris, who I consider a great young coach, had his Bucs at 10-6 already headed in the right direction.  They lost their home opener to a very good Detroit Lions team and have won three in a row since.  They travel cross country this week and will endure a good test on both sides of the ball with the 49ers.  This is definitely a step up in class after beating Minnesota, a hurting Falcon team, and Indy.  LeGarrette Blount is a monster running back.  I’ve forgiven him for his left hook he KO’d a Boise State big mouth with back in college and was kicked out of school.  He seems to be a good kid and working hard.  The Bucs are pretty conservative on offense mostly because they have to be.  They are averaging less than 10 yards per catch which Tom Brady is almost getting per attempt.  They’re going to have to score some points to win in San Francisco this weekend.  If they can’t, look for Alex Smith to have a big day against the suspect defensive backfield of the Bucs.  The pass rush of the Buccaneers may be the key to keeping them in the game.  Alex Smith has been sacked 14 times already this season.   I also look for the 49er defense to come up strong and shut down the Tampa Bay offense by making them throw the football.  Quarterback Josh Freeman and his ability to use his legs to get first downs may be the difference in the game.  Whoever wins this game may be well on their way to a good season and possibly the playoffs. The line has moved to 3 points late. Normally, this would be a great spot for San Francisco, but these two teams are so close and Tampa Bay has shown much better on the road as of late so I’M PASSING ON THIS GAME COMPLETELY.  JUST ENJOY IT AND WATCH IT.

DENVER +3 ½ OVER SAN DIEGO (46)

May be my total play of the year this week.  Both teams can’t stop the pass. Denver’s going after an NFL record if they keep up what they’re NOT doing on defense which is covering anyone.  They’ve given up a 110.7 QB rating AVERAGE so far this season.  Sure, Champ Bailey’s been out and they’ve had their share of injuries, but damn, that sucks. I hate to ruin everyone’s day that thinks the Chargers are good, but they’re not.  I have them ranked as just OK.  They’ve beaten teams with a combined record of 1-11.  New England handled them by 14 at home. Denver is pretty damn bad though. It’s a good thing the Broncos signed Willis McGahee or they’d have NO running game at all. He’s doing a pretty good job so far but he’s just averaging 3.8 yards per carry.  Kyle Orton is hearing chants for Tebow from EVERYONE it seems even though Tebow won’t be able to help much with this offense.  Edddie Royal has been out virtually all season long so far and has caught a grand total of 4 passes.  Knowshawn Moreno has been hurt all season.  Brandon Lloyd in 4 games has 18 catches for an average of 14.6 yards per catch.  The Chargers lost their other road game so far this season and I look for a much closer game than people think.  Good thing Vegas isn’t as high on the Chargers as all the “experts” are.  I think they’re average at best.  I’d love to see Denver win this game, but I’ll just figure that Rivers and Orton will go after each other for 60 minutes and if the weather’s OK and the wind isn’t too strong, it will be a 41-38 game and I won’t care who wins.  TAKE THE OVER 46 FOR THE MORTGAGE PAYMENT I have Denver winning 4 games this season.  5 if they win this one. I have Chargers winning 7. 8 if they win this one.

NEW ENGLAND -7 ½ OVER JETS (49 ½)

This is going to be one hell of a game to watch in my opinon.  How the Jets come back after two straight road losses will tell me whether they have any chance at all in the AFC East this season.  They are beat up. No question. But they need to do a better job on the offensive side of the ball to keep their defense, which is pretty damn good, off the field.  Last week the Ravens jumped out to an early lead and were able to hold on.  The week before, the same thing happened in Oakland. Now they play a team that absolutely hates them, the New England Patriots. The Pats are still pissed about letting Buffalo come back and beat them two weeks ago.  This is NOT a good defensive team in New England.  They are putting a defense together with duck tape each week and adding players all the time.  They lost Jerod Mayo last week for the season.  They should get Albert Haynesworth back this week to help shore up the middle of the line.  If the Jets can get some balance to their attack and be able to throw the ball downfield, then this could be a very close game. They should be able to run the football.  The only team that the Jets have faced so far this year with a good passing game was the Cowboys, who had them beat early and let the Jets come back and win.  I see a lot of points being scored in this game no matter what happens.  If the Jets jump out to an early lead, they won’t be able to keep Brady and the offense from coming back.  Vice versa, the Jets only answer would be in the air, which the Pats can be vulnerable to.  I’M TAKING THE OVER 49 POINTS FOR 5 STARS THIS WEEK AND TEASING IT TO DEATH WITH A THREE TEAMER.

GREEN BAY -5 ½ AT ATLANTA (53 ½)

This is a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game in Atlanta which the Packers won 48-21 in pretty much a blowout.  I don’t see a thing changing here.  Atlanta, if anything, isn’t the team they were last year.  For whatever reason, they’ve struggled to move the football like they did last year even at home, and their defense has given up big chunks of yardage even to the Seattle Seahawks and Chicago Bears, both teams who are not good.  The Packers are playing better than anyone in the NFL right now and Aaron Rodgers has some unbelievable QB rating of 130+ indoors.  I look for him to absolutely cut up the Atlanta defense early and the Packer defense to control the line of scrimmage and shut down most of the Falcon passing game.  That will be the key.  The pressure created on both sides of the ball rushing the passer.  The Atlanta Falcons defense has just 5 sacks in 4 games.  Not much pressure really.  The Packers, even though their numbers are down a bit this year, have 11.  Matt Ryan has been sacked 13 times to Aaron Rodgers 7.  This game will not be a very good opportunity for Atlanta to win unless they can control the ball and the agenda on the ground with their running game, which hasn’t really shown up this year. Michael Turner looks a step or two slow when he takes the ball this year.  Maybe it’s the blocking.  Look for Dom Capers and the Packers defense to make life miserable again for Ryan and the Falcons offense.  League MVP Aaron Rodgers should have another great game indoors.  TAKE THE PACKERS MINUS THE POINTS FOR 5 STARS. LEAVE THE TOTAL ALONE.  NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE AS US MUCH SCORING AS EVERYONE THINKS.

DETROIT -5 OVER CHICAGO (47 ½)

A lot of people have thought I’m crazy so far this year, releasing the Lions all the time.  Hey, I love Jim Schwartz, and I love what’s he’s doing with his team.  They have some holes here and there, but their defense is doing just enough to get them wins with their potent offense.  Matthew Stafford has a 100.3 QB rating and Javid Best is getting just enough yardage on the ground to keep opposing defenses honest.  They’re also utilizing their soon to be All Pro TE Brandon Pettigrew in the short passing game to go along with Calvin Johnson’s 8 touchdowns when it’s needed. The Bears are struggling, to say the least.  They’re playing maybe the toughest schedule so far in the entire NFL, but going to Detroit on Monday night in front of all those crazy ass fans isn’t going to help them at all.  Cutler has a hard time staying on his feet at home, let alone on the road where hearing the snap count is a problem.  He’s been sacked 15 times.  Their offensive line is terrible.  Compare that to only 5 sacks of Matthew Stafford. I have the Bears rated as a SUCK team right now, and even though they’re 2-2, in my opinion, they were lucky to win last week against Carolina, who made it tough on their defense especially.  With a win here next Monday night, the Lions actually have a chance to be 8-0 at their Bye Week break.  I’M GOING TO TAKE THE LIONS MINUS THE INCREDIBLY LOW 5 POINTS FOR 5 STARS AND MAKE IT MY NFC PLAY OF THE WEEK.  I’M ALSO TAKING THE OVER BECAUSE IT’S MONDAY NIGHT!!   Remember, Detroit 8-0 at the bye week this year and a playoff team.

SUMMARY

BUFFALO +3 OVER PHILLY      5
OVER 52 PHILLY-BUFFALO      5
HOUSTON -5 OVER OAKLAND  4
OVER 48 ½ HOU-OAKLAND      4
N.ENGLAND -7 ½ OVER JETS  4
OVER 49 ½ N.E.-JETS                  5
G.BAY -5 ½ OVER ATLANTA    5
OVER 47 ½ DETROIT-CHI          4
CINCY PICK OVER JAX                4
OVER 46 DENVER-S.D.                 5
DETROIT -5 OVER CHICAGO     5